Tropical Depression 8 now ALIVE

[FIRELT5]

Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion

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000

WTNT43 KNHC 131433

TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 5

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007

1100 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007

 

A 0900Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS RECEIVED AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY

SUGGESTED THAT SYSTEM COULD HAVE BEEN A TROPICAL STORM FOR A FEW

HOURS. THE IMAGE DEPICTED A FEW UN-FLAGGED 35 KT WINDS JUST TO THE

EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. SINCE THEN...VISIBLE IMAGERY

INDICATES A SEVERELY SHEARED...POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM.

CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT.

 

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THERE IS

STILL A CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL

STORM. AFTERWARD...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST

PERIOD...LARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRONG

UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER

MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND

ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS

SUIT AND IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

 

BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT PASS AND AN EARLIER SSMIS

MICROWAVE IMAGE...THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT

OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...REFLECTING AN INITIAL ESTIMATED MOTION

OF 285/7. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE

FORECAST...WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD MOTION

DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY

A REFLECTION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT JUST TO THE LEFT...FOLLOWING

A BLEND OF THE UKMET...GFDL...AND THE GFS.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 13/1500Z 13.9N 48.0W 30 KT

12HR VT 14/0000Z 14.2N 49.0W 30 KT

24HR VT 14/1200Z 14.5N 49.9W 35 KT

36HR VT 15/0000Z 14.8N 50.8W 35 KT

48HR VT 15/1200Z 15.2N 52.0W 40 KT

72HR VT 16/1200Z 16.0N 54.4W 40 KT

96HR VT 17/1200Z 17.0N 57.0W 40 KT

120HR VT 18/1200Z 18.2N 59.6W 35 KT

 

$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

 

 

 

 

 

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Page last modified: Thursday, 13-Sep-2007 14:34:13 GMT

[FIRELT5]

Strong shear, Poor outflow, Dry Air, Upper Level Dynamics are not favorable

for this system in the mid term. Howerver, System still should be watched :)

 

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

[FIRELT5]

000

Wtnt33 Knhc 132033

Tcpat3

Bulletin

Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 6

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al082007

500 Pm Ast Thu Sep 13 2007

 

...poorly Organized Depression Slowly Moving West-northwestward...

 

At 500 Pm Ast...2100z...the Center Of Tropical Depression Eight Was

Located Near Latitude 14.2 North...longitude 48.4 West Or About 865

Miles...1395 Km...east Of The Lesser Antilles.

 

The Depression Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 6 Mph...10

Km/hr. This General Motion Is Expected To Continue During The Next

24 Hours.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph...55 Km/hr...with Higher

Gusts. Although Upper-level Conditions Have Become Less Favorable

For Strengthening...the Depression Still Has The Chance To Become A

Tropical Storm During The Next 12 To 24 Hours. A Noaa Hurricane

Hunter Plane Is Scheduled To Investigate The System This Evening.

 

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1006 Mb...29.71 Inches.

 

Repeating The 500 Pm Ast Position...14.2 N...48.4 W. Movement

Toward...west-northwest Near 6 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...35

Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1006 Mb.

 

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At

1100 Pm Ast.

 

$$

[wrp96]

She's now Tropical Storm Ingrid:

 

000

WTNT33 KNHC 140227

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 7

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007

1100 PM AST THU SEP 13 2007

 

...THE NINTH STORM OF THE YEAR FORMS TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER

ANTILLES...

 

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST OR ABOUT 840

MILES...1355 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

 

INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...

AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. A SMALL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

 

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER

AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

 

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.7 N...48.7 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

500 AM AST.

 

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

[massfriends]

How things can change, this storm is getting very interesting....it is definitely one to watch.

 

We sail Sunday...Monday is Cococay...Wednesday is St. Thomas...Thursday is St. Maarten..the other days at sea.

 

Where oh where will we go.....as long as I'm on the ship I don't care if we sail in circles. :)

[Rancher Dave]

She's now Tropical Storm Ingrid:

 

000

WTNT33 KNHC 140227

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 7

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007

1100 PM AST THU SEP 13 2007

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

 

Dr. Frank one of the local WX experts formerly of NHC indicated he expects to see in a few days TS -I downgrade back to TD...and he left his prediction there... I think it will really depend on what turn she makes.

 

He and others yesterday thought TS-H was blowing into Galveston. In the end it was Hurricant Humberto that hit a couple dozen miles East of Galveston... Talk about forecasters getting caught with their pants down... In 15 hours we went from a collection of thunderstorms maybe a hundred miles South of here to a Strong Cat-1 Hurricane hitting land..and he kept up the hurricane strength for many miles inland.

 

At evening news cast 10pm here they were saying maybe a bit East of Galveston at TS strength...closer to midnight I looked for latest update and saw a radar that showed a strengthened storm...went to sleep got up early and wow it was a Hurricane that hit looking even fiercer than at midnight.

 

I point out the quick changes of our storm because too many folks are focused on what forecasters are saying, but even well educated forecasters sometimes miss....some storms have minds of their own and if Ingrid goes that way it could make for a really crazy cruise if she is out there where you are cruising.

 

Hope everyone as smooth sailing and gets to most if not all of their ports.

[Radio]

Thanks Skyking, for posting this thread ! !

 

Good luck on your cruise next week ! !

 

Radio

:rolleyes: :rolleyes:

[skyking]

Thanks Skyking, for posting this thread ! !

 

Good luck on your cruise next week ! !

 

Radio

:rolleyes: :rolleyes:

 

Thanks Bud:) Have fun on yours as well, it looks like this storm is starting to make that turn to the north thanks to that shear.

[gnparend]

Current predictions continue to take this up into the atlantic. The more of a northern track the less likely for the storm to build b/c of the lack of warmer waters. There has been a high pressure area in the souther states for several weeks, which is Krytonite to hurricanes, hope it states thru October. The local weather geeks here say TS Ingrid will go into north atlantic.

 

As most folks living in the gulf area know though this time of year (Aug - Oct) any storm in the gulf can be a hurricane overnight b/c of the the high water temps in the gulf. In 1993 there was a thunderstorm off our coast (Tampa Area) in the morning it was a hurricane. It developed so fast the NHC didn't even have time to name it so it was named "The No Name Storm" The link below has a picture of the surf almost completely covering a two story home on the beach. So Humberto, go thing for Texas it moved in so quickly otherwise it could have gotten worse.

 

http://www2.sptimes.com/weather/SW.3.html

[Radio]

Thanks Bud:) Have fun on yours as well, it looks like this storm is starting to make that turn to the north thanks to that shear.

 

It can go north. . . . As long as it doesnt go to Bermuda ! ! :(

 

Radio

;) ;)