Tropical Depression 8 now ALIVE

[kruisin' kim]

Okay guys...

Just as I figured, Kristi just talked to our RCCL rep, who is in Denver and knew nothing of the storm...But she was assured that the captain and crew are experienced in this will do everything possible to keep us safe...DUH!!! As far as ports go...it's a wait and see game! If ya'll hear anything different, please keep us posted...

Kim:confused:

[star of county down]

We went thru one in 2005 and they just went around it, speed up, slowed down -- whatever it took. I went on the top deck, held my dress down (ahaha) and enjoyed the wind. The next morning, however, I had to take a little candied ginger (works for me instead of bonine or something) and I ate a second breakfast! After that, I was fine.

 

We're going on one next Thursday, out of Ft. Lauder to Key West and Cozumel...

[kruisin' kim]

You ought to be safe by then....Love Key west, taking land trip to Keys in October...can't wait for that either!!!

Kim:)

[Madkitty]

I must add that considering I am off next week there WILL be a hurricane as I have the worst luck in the world :eek: :D :eek:

[Royalpair]

We're sailing on AOS out of San Juan on Sunday (I hope!). We're doing a southern caribean itinerary, so as long as we can get out of port, I think we'll be fine.

[star of county down]

Well, we just have to take it all in stride. We'll have a good time no matter what on the ship. Just hope it doesn't hurt people on the land where they have to live.

 

Yeah, we're trying to figure out where we want to go in Key West this time. I wish we could walk to the water somewhere and jump in. But as far as I know, there really isn't anywhere to do that. We went to Key West in 1983 and just jumped over a concrete wall and went in, and we drove to some beach somewhere. At least I found a conch shell:D But just walking around will be fun, and I do, believe it or not, look forward to seeing the chickens again.

[blmcdps]

We are leaving on the Disney Wonder on Sunday. Do you think this storm will affect Nassau. We are suppose to be there on Monday. We have a room booked for the day at Atlantis, and can't cancel it.:( I just want to be able to get on the ship.

[leeanninfla]

Going on my first cruise Monday, the Majesty of the Seas. This is work related, and several are upset because this storm is out there. I say bring it on. IF it is there, nothing I can do about it, and I am not going to stress out over it.

[kruz]

Going on my first cruise Monday, the Majesty of the Seas. This is work related, and several are upset because this storm is out there. I say bring it on. IF it is there, nothing I can do about it, and I am not going to stress out over it.

 

 

That is the correct attitude!

[skyking]

We are leaving on the Disney Wonder on Sunday. Do you think this storm will affect Nassau. We are suppose to be there on Monday. We have a room booked for the day at Atlantis, and can't cancel it.:( I just want to be able to get on the ship.

 

I think it is safe to say you will be just fine in the Bahamas on Monday, the front of the storn wont even hit the Northern Antilles until Tuesday. HAVE FUN and make sure to wave to us next door on the Mariner on Sunday:) We will have the pirate flag:)

[jackdiamond]

I agree that this will be a strong hurricane; and, it is further my feeling that it will make landfall in Florida, the Carolinas, or possibly make a sharp right turn and travel northeast in the Atlantic.

[Tralynn222]

I must add that considering I am off next week there WILL be a hurricane as I have the worst luck in the world :eek: :D :eek:

 

Madkitty! Shsshh!!! I'm on your sailing and I have good luck! So..therefore, my good luck supersedes your bad luck and there will NOT be a hurricane!! k? pleaseohpleaseohpleasedon'tlettherebeahurricane :cool:

[Boo Boo]

Hhhmmm, hope that this storm doesn't affect the sailings departing the w/e of the 22nd September.... you lot departing this weekend may want a few extra days on the ship, but those of us sailing the following weekend don't want a few days less! ;)

 

Watching with interest...

 

Boo

[star of county down]

We'll be in Cozumel on the 22nd -- our 23rd anniversary. We sail out on the 20th...wow, another hurricane adventure! It would definitely be a bummer to not be able to snorkel...but heck, they can always head somewhere else. We'll see...:)

[Luveli15]

I think it is safe to say you will be just fine in the Bahamas on Monday, the front of the storn wont even hit the Northern Antilles until Tuesday. HAVE FUN and make sure to wave to us next door on the Mariner on Sunday:) We will have the pirate flag:)

 

 

Ahhhhh.....I'm scheduled to be in Saint Martin on Tuesday. :-(

 

Been looking forward to this island for a year now, have private tour scheduled and all...just my luck.

[gnparend]

TS Humberto is entering Texas so should not reverse itself although the Texans don't need anymore rain. TD8 is at 27 mph winds so close to becoming a TS. Entering warmer waters which help build storms. Current high over FL and lower states MAY push it more up into the Atlantic. Current Models all agree the track will pass north of PR and move Northwest.

 

Be aware absolutely nothing is predictable about hurricanes other then August & September are usually good months for hurricane. That being said go on your crusie and enjoy the captain will not take you into harms way.

[skyking]

TS Humberto is entering Texas so should not reverse itself although the Texans don't need anymore rain. TD8 is at 27 mph winds so close to becoming a TS. Entering warmer waters which help build storms. Current high over FL and lower states MAY push it more up into the Atlantic. Current Models all agree the track will pass north of PR and move Northwest.

 

Be aware absolutely nothing is predictable about hurricanes other then August & September are usually good months for hurricane. That being said go on your crusie and enjoy the captain will not take you into harms way.

 

I hope your right...If it makes that sudden turn North I think we will be ok. I did notice the high pressure system moving into our area SAT...Watching it closely.

[blmcdps]

Thanks skyking for your response. I hope you are correct. Even if we just have to stay on the ship for four days, it will still be fun. My seven year old will have a great time in the kids program, and I will enjoy relaxing.:)

[FIRELT5]

Found this on the hurricane board and thought I would post it here:

 

 

We caught up with Captain Wright, vice president of marine operations for Royal Caribbean. He is the line's go-to guy for all things hurricane related. (He's also a seasoned captain; he launched Freedom of the Seas, which shares the title of world's largest cruise ship with Liberty of the Seas.)

for a behind-the-scenes look at what goes on at a major cruise line when a storm is brewing.

 

Cruise Critic: What is the very first step you take when a storm is looming?

What We Learned: "First step," Wright tells us, "is staying closely tuned in with the NOAA [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association]. One of the real advantages is the forecasting is very accurate, typically high level of reliability."

 

CC: Here at Cruise Critic, we're constantly surfing over to the National Hurricane Center's Web site for information. How do you get your updates?

WWL: "We have a close working relationship with NOAA," Wright tells us. In the days before the Internet, folks in Royal Caribbean's Miami office would simply trot on down to the National Hurricane Center's offices. They can still do so today -- but more often than not, rely on more "modern" approaches like e-mail and fax blasts.

 

CC: How do ships manage to stay safe with Mother Nature wreaking havoc?

WWL: "The high speed allows us to make sure ships are someplace a storm isn't." Ships typically move a bit faster than hurricanes do; generally a storm travels at about 10 to 12 knots (one exception: 1992's Hurricane Andrew had forward motion of 16 knots), while most ships are capable of traveling above 20 knots.

 

CC: Well, that sounds easy enough...

WWL: Actually, Wright refers to it as a "big puzzle." There's no "magic number" -- i.e., the number of miles away a storm needs to be for the line to consider the ship unsafe. The facts and figures taken into account are enough to make a mathematician's head spin.

 

CC: Tell us how you fit the pieces of the puzzle together.

WWL: Consider a storm -- the big, round mass of colors we see swirling on the Weather Channel -- to be the face of a clock divided into four 15-minute quadrants. The 12 to 3 o'clock chunk typically packs the most punch, and the 6 to 9 o'clock chunk is typically the least dangerous. The size of the storm obviously comes into play, too.

 

CC: OK, so you know the nature of the beast. Now what?

WWL: Wright's team shuts themselves into a "situation room" containing wall-sized monitors displaying a live link to NOAA, TV feeds and communication with the ships. There is ongoing discussion, and here is where decisions are made: delaying (and, less often, canceling) sailings, rescheduling air and hotel for passengers, eliminating and replacing ports of call, and choosing additional programs to be put in place onboard to keep put-out guests happy.

 

CC: Is keeping guests happy a big challenge?

WWL: Sure, but one of the biggest challenges is retooling itineraries because nearly always, there are several lines scrambling to secure new ports at the same time -- ports that can be generally full anyway as cruising becomes more and more popular. Docking permission is given "first come, first served" -- so there's a lot of pressure for a major line like Royal Caribbean to move quickly.

 

http://www.cruisecritic.com/images/qabillwright2.jpg CC: What special or unique tools does your team use?

WWL: Officials at Royal Caribbean scrutinize each and every forecast using everything from simple maps to sophisticated software.

 

Wright describes one scenario, where he and other officers sit down with a big map of the Caribbean and recent notes from the NOAA. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Royal Caribbean uses software from a company called Ocean Systems Incorporated; onboard subscription services allow them to download storm force maps (left is an image of early August's Hurricane Irene heading northeast).

 

Then, proposed ship routes can be superimposed over these maps to make sure all vessels are in -- or being sent to -- the safest possible place.

 

Though these are the main tools, he says that U.S. Navy satellite pictures and pressure charts are also used from time to time to verify predictions -- "really as just a supplement."

 

CC: Besides the obvious, what other dangers do ships face during storms?

WWL: For one, storm-driven sand can create underwater "shoals" -- essentially an elevation of the bottom of a body of water that can cause ships to run aground. This is why port calls may not resume immediately after a storm; shoreside infrastructures must first be inspected for such damage.

 

CC: Here's a hot button -- what are passengers entitled to if their trip is altered or otherwise interrupted?

WWL: Not much -- and that goes for most major cruise lines. Royal Caribbean cruise documents clearly state that the line has "the right to cancel, advance, postpone or deviate from any scheduled sailing or port of call without prior notice." And while some lines will occasionally throw passengers a bone in the form of shipboard credits, refunds are nearly impossible (unless, of course, you were prudent enough to pick up travel insurance). However, Royal Caribbean -- again, like most major lines -- will attempt to keep passengers informed of any changes.

 

CC: And how are they contacted?

WWL: This really depends on the situation. If time permits, passengers may receive updates through their travel agents, or directly from the cruise line by phone (this is why it's important to submit your contact information when booking, or online ahead of time!). However, last-minute decisions can put the kibosh on the whole notion of advance notice. Because of this, Royal Caribbean posts "real time" updates on their Web site for concerned travelers.

 

CC: Who has the final word?

WWL: "The captain," Wright says, without hesitation. In the extremely unlikely case that a ship runs into trouble, Wright's team would consult with the captain -- but the captain would make the ultimate call. He's trusted completely.

 

--by Melissa Baldwin, Senior Editor

[Candy]

Thanks for the heads-up, Tim. There are some good points:

1. Key West and Coz wouldn't exactly suck
   
2. It could turn a 7-niter into a 10-niter
   
3. If we have to disembark at a different port, those of us parked at the Port Canaveral pier could get a free ride
   
4. If the hurricane destroys our car, it was time for a new one anyway

Candy the ZuiderPrincess

 

[FIRELT5]

000

Wtnt33 Knhc 122034

Tcpat3

Bulletin

Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 2

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al082007

500 Pm Ast Wed Sep 12 2007

 

...depression Approaching Tropical Storm Strength...

 

At 500 Pm Ast...2100z...the Center Of Tropical Depression Eight Was

Located Near Latitude 13.5 North...longitude 45.5 West Or About 1065

Miles...1715 Km...east Of The Lesser Antilles.

 

The Depression Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 12 Mph...

19 Km/hr...and This General Motion Is Expected To Continue With Some

Decrease In Forward Speed During The Next 24 Hours.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph...55 Km/hr...with Higher

Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours And

The Depression Could Become A Tropical Storm Tonight Or Thursday.

 

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1006 Mb...29.71 Inches.

 

Repeating The 500 Pm Ast Position...13.5 N...45.5 W. Movement

Toward...west-northwest Near 12 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...35

Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1006 Mb.

 

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At

1100 Pm Ast.

[FIRELT5]

000

Wtnt43 Knhc 122038

Tcdat3

Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 2

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al082007

500 Pm Edt Wed Sep 12 2007

 

The Cloud Pattern Of The Depression Has Changed Very Little Since

This Morning With The Circulation Center Estimated Near The Eastern

Portion Of The Deep Convection. Dvorak Intensity Estimates

From Tafb And Sab Support 35 Kt. Since There Is Some Uncertainty

In The Exact Center Location...the Initial Intensity Will Remain 30

Kt. The Depression Is Currently Passing About 60 Nm South Of Noaa

Buoy 41041...which Has Reported A Peak 1-minute Wind Of 28 Kt And A

Minimum Pressure Of 1008.6 Mb.

 

The Initial Motion Estimate Is 290/10. The Track Guidance Is In Good

Agreement On A West-northwestward Motion During The Next Couple Of

Days. The Ridge Is Expected To Weaken As A Mid-to Upper-level Low

Develops Several Hundred Miles Northeast Of The Leeward Islands.

This Is Expected To Cause The Depression To Decelerate During The

Next Couple Of Days. The New Track Forecast Remains Close To The

Previous Advisory Through 48 Hours But Is Adjusted A Little

Northward Thereafter...in Close Agreement With The Consensus Of

Hwrf...gfdl...umket...and Gfs Models.

 

Most Of The Intensity Guidance Indicates That The Easterly Shear

Currently Affecting The Cyclone Should Weaken During The Next 24

Hours And The Guidance Suggests That Depression Should Gradually

Strengthen. The Gfdl...hwrf And Ships Models Bring The Depression

To Hurricane Strength In About 72 Hours. The Official Forecast Will

Remain Slightly Below This Guidance And Keep The Depression

Just Below Hurricane Strength. At Days 4 And 5...strong

Southwesterly Upper-level Winds South Of The Mid-to Upper-level Low

Are Expected To Produce Increasing Shear. The Gfdl Responds To This

By Weakening The Cyclone And The Official Forecast Will Reflect Some

Weakening Late In The Period.

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 12/2100z 13.5n 45.5w 30 Kt

12hr Vt 13/0600z 13.9n 46.7w 35 Kt

24hr Vt 13/1800z 14.3n 47.9w 45 Kt

36hr Vt 14/0600z 14.7n 48.8w 50 Kt

48hr Vt 14/1800z 15.1n 49.8w 55 Kt

72hr Vt 15/1800z 16.2n 52.2w 60 Kt

96hr Vt 16/1800z 17.5n 55.5w 60 Kt

120hr Vt 17/1800z 18.5n 58.5w 55 Kt

[skyking]

All I can say is IT'S GONNA BE CLOSE....It looks like it starting to turn a little to the North away from the Islands we are visiting...If it continues to make that north turn I think we will be ok:)

[FIRELT5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

[skyking]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

 

Whats a floater??? Please educate!