NJBill Posted July 1, 2008 #1 Share Posted July 1, 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJBill Posted July 1, 2008 Author #2 Share Posted July 1, 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJBill Posted July 1, 2008 Author #3 Share Posted July 1, 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJBill Posted July 2, 2008 Author #4 Share Posted July 2, 2008 000 Abnt20 Knhc 021143 Twoat Tropical Weather Outlook Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl 800 Am Edt Wed Jul 2 2008 For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico... The Well-defined Tropical Wave In The Far Eastern Atlantic...about 300 Miles Southeast Of The Cape Verde Islands...has Not Become Any Better Organized This Morning As It Continues Westward At About 15 Mph. However...environmental Conditions Appear Favorable For Some Additional Development...and This System Has The Potential To Become A Tropical Depression Over The Next Couple Of Days. Elsewhere...tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The Next 48 Hours. $$ Forecaster Franklin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJBill Posted July 2, 2008 Author #5 Share Posted July 2, 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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NJBill Posted July 2, 2008 Author #7 Share Posted July 2, 2008 Tropical Cyclone Guidance Message Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl 1846 Utc Wed Jul 2 2008 Disclaimer...numerical Models Are Subject To Large Errors. Please Refer To Nhc Official Forecasts For Tropical Cyclone And Subtropical Cyclone Information. Atlantic Objective Aids For Disturbance Invest (al922008) 20080702 1800 Utc ...00 Hrs... ...12 Hrs... ...24 Hrs. .. ...36 Hrs... 080702 1800 080703 0600 080703 1800 080704 0600 Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon Bams 12.0n 21.0w 12.3n 24.1w 11.9n 27.5w 11.2n 30.3w Bamd 12.0n 21.0w 12.7n 23.6w 13.3n 26.3w 13.9n 29.0w Bamm 12.0n 21.0w 12.5n 23.8w 12.8n 26.8w 12.9n 29.7w Lbar 12.0n 21.0w 12.2n 23.2w 12.7n 25.9w 13.3n 28.6w Ship 25kts 31kts 39kts 49kts Dshp 25kts 31kts 39kts 49kts ...48 Hrs... ...72 Hrs... ...96 Hrs. .. ..120 Hrs... 080704 1800 080705 1800 080706 1800 080707 1800 Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon Bams 10.9n 31.9w 15.5n 34.5w 22.7n 40.7w 27.2n 46.3w Bamd 14.7n 31.8w 17.1n 37.9w 20.3n 43.8w 25.2n 46.1w Bamm 13.2n 32.2w 16.3n 36.9w 21.0n 42.6w 25.8n 45.7w Lbar 14.2n 31.7w 16.9n 37.9w 20.3n 43.6w 25.2n 45.8w Ship 59kts 76kts 82kts 81kts Dshp 59kts 76kts 82kts 81kts ...initial Conditions... Latcur = 12.0n Loncur = 21.0w Dircur = 280deg Spdcur = 8kt Latm12 = 11.8n Lonm12 = 19.5w Dirm12 = 280deg Spdm12 = 9kt Latm24 = 11.5n Lonm24 = 17.7w Wndcur = 25kt Rmaxwd = 60nm Wndm12 = 25kt Cenprs = 1009mb Outprs = 1012mb Outrad = 120nm Sdepth = M Rd34ne = 0nm Rd34se = 0nm Rd34sw = 0nm Rd34nw = 0nm This image has been resized. Click this bar to view the full image. The original image is sized 800x600 and weights 22KB. __________________ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Mach* Posted July 3, 2008 #8 Share Posted July 3, 2008 The 12 GFS ten image loop also confirms Invest 92L will be no threat to land... in fact no significant threat to much of anything... As it develops it will turn north into the mid Atlantic and cold water where it will finally vanish... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_m_loop.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FIRELT5 Posted July 4, 2008 #9 Share Posted July 4, 2008 The 12 GFS ten image loop also confirms Invest 92L will be no threat to land... in fact no significant threat to much of anything... As it develops it will turn north into the mid Atlantic and cold water where it will finally vanish... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_m_loop.shtml Never say never !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachTerry14 Posted July 4, 2008 #10 Share Posted July 4, 2008 Never say never !!! The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it. ~Patrick Young Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FIRELT5 Posted July 4, 2008 #11 Share Posted July 4, 2008 The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it. ~Patrick Young Latest QuickSat this morning looked a bit more impressive, SST'S are still below 26C, Shear at the moment <10 knt. SST's should be favorable for the next 72 Hours along with 10-15 knt Shear. 12 out of the 16 models that we follow Diverge after 96 Hours although within the past 36 Hours, there has been a westerly push for aprox location after 108 Hours. Also add in the 30-40knt Shear that is possibly expected by some models after 72 Hours. Should be interesting tracking Bertha to say the Least :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FIRELT5 Posted July 4, 2008 #12 Share Posted July 4, 2008 Some of the Recent Models are suggesting a strong TS or weak Cat 1 in about 60 Hours before the stronger Shear. SST's in the area are around 28C, conducive to slow strengthing with low shear. Latest quiksat pass did suggest that the center is not exposed and under the cdo. 000 WTNT32 KNHC 042031 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 500 PM AST FRI JUL 04 2008 ...BERTHA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.6 WEST OR ABOUT 505 MILES...815 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...15.5 N...31.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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