92l.invest 01 Jul 2008 1415z

[NJBill]

[NJBill]

[NJBill]

[NJBill]

000

Abnt20 Knhc 021143

Twoat

Tropical Weather Outlook

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl 800 Am Edt Wed Jul 2 2008

 

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

The Well-defined Tropical Wave In The Far Eastern Atlantic...about 300 Miles Southeast Of The Cape Verde Islands...has Not Become Any Better Organized This Morning As It Continues Westward At About 15 Mph. However...environmental Conditions Appear Favorable For Some Additional Development...and This System Has The Potential To Become A Tropical Depression Over The Next Couple Of Days.

Elsewhere...tropical Cyclone Formation Is Not Expected During The Next 48 Hours.

$$

Forecaster Franklin

[NJBill]

[NJBill]

[NJBill]

Tropical Cyclone Guidance Message

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

1846 Utc Wed Jul 2 2008

 

Disclaimer...numerical Models Are Subject To Large Errors.

Please Refer To Nhc Official Forecasts For Tropical Cyclone

And Subtropical Cyclone Information.

 

Atlantic Objective Aids For

 

Disturbance Invest (al922008) 20080702 1800 Utc

 

...00 Hrs... ...12 Hrs... ...24 Hrs. .. ...36 Hrs...

080702 1800 080703 0600 080703 1800 080704 0600

 

Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon

Bams 12.0n 21.0w 12.3n 24.1w 11.9n 27.5w 11.2n 30.3w

Bamd 12.0n 21.0w 12.7n 23.6w 13.3n 26.3w 13.9n 29.0w

Bamm 12.0n 21.0w 12.5n 23.8w 12.8n 26.8w 12.9n 29.7w

Lbar 12.0n 21.0w 12.2n 23.2w 12.7n 25.9w 13.3n 28.6w

Ship 25kts 31kts 39kts 49kts

Dshp 25kts 31kts 39kts 49kts

 

...48 Hrs... ...72 Hrs... ...96 Hrs. .. ..120 Hrs...

080704 1800 080705 1800 080706 1800 080707 1800

 

Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon Lat Lon

Bams 10.9n 31.9w 15.5n 34.5w 22.7n 40.7w 27.2n 46.3w

Bamd 14.7n 31.8w 17.1n 37.9w 20.3n 43.8w 25.2n 46.1w

Bamm 13.2n 32.2w 16.3n 36.9w 21.0n 42.6w 25.8n 45.7w

Lbar 14.2n 31.7w 16.9n 37.9w 20.3n 43.6w 25.2n 45.8w

Ship 59kts 76kts 82kts 81kts

Dshp 59kts 76kts 82kts 81kts

 

...initial Conditions...

Latcur = 12.0n Loncur = 21.0w Dircur = 280deg Spdcur = 8kt

Latm12 = 11.8n Lonm12 = 19.5w Dirm12 = 280deg Spdm12 = 9kt

Latm24 = 11.5n Lonm24 = 17.7w

Wndcur = 25kt Rmaxwd = 60nm Wndm12 = 25kt

Cenprs = 1009mb Outprs = 1012mb Outrad = 120nm Sdepth = M

Rd34ne = 0nm Rd34se = 0nm Rd34sw = 0nm Rd34nw = 0nm

 

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__________________

[*Mach*]

The 12 GFS ten image loop also confirms Invest 92L will be no threat to land... in fact no significant threat to much of anything... As it develops it will turn north into the mid Atlantic and cold water where it will finally vanish...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_m_loop.shtml

[FIRELT5]

The 12 GFS ten image loop also confirms Invest 92L will be no threat to land... in fact no significant threat to much of anything... As it develops it will turn north into the mid Atlantic and cold water where it will finally vanish...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_m_loop.shtml

 

Never say never !!!

[CoachTerry14]

Never say never !!!

 

The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it. ~Patrick Young

[FIRELT5]

The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it. ~Patrick Young

 

Latest QuickSat this morning looked a bit more impressive, SST'S are still below 26C, Shear at the moment <10 knt. SST's should be favorable for the next 72 Hours along with 10-15 knt Shear. 12 out of the 16 models that we follow Diverge after 96 Hours although within the past 36 Hours, there has been a westerly push for aprox location after 108 Hours. Also add in the 30-40knt Shear that is possibly expected by some models after 72 Hours. Should be interesting tracking Bertha to say the Least :)

[FIRELT5]

Some of the Recent Models are suggesting a strong TS or weak Cat 1 in about 60 Hours before the stronger Shear. SST's in the area are around 28C, conducive to slow strengthing with low shear. Latest quiksat pass did suggest that the center is not exposed and under the cdo.

 

 

 

 

000

WTNT32 KNHC 042031

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 7

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008

500 PM AST FRI JUL 04 2008

 

...BERTHA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

 

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.6 WEST OR ABOUT 505

MILES...815 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

 

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.

THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE

OF DAYS.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT SOME

GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

 

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...15.5 N...31.6 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

1100 PM AST.