dsmini Posted July 9, 2008 #1 Share Posted July 9, 2008 Bertha looks like she'll strengthen a little bit and has started turning the corner, heading eventually toward the north. It looks like a close pass to Bermuda, but far enough away that it shouldn't cause too many problems except for some rough seas. Obviously, that matters most to you, since you're on a cruise! The official forecast track takes Bertha along its closest pass to the island around the 12th/13th, well i guess we will need some bonine !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Mach* Posted July 9, 2008 #2 Share Posted July 9, 2008 Bertha looks like she'll strengthen a little bit and has started turning the corner, heading eventually toward the north. It looks like a close pass to Bermuda, but far enough away that it shouldn't cause too many problems except for some rough seas. Obviously, that matters most to you, since you're on a cruise! The official forecast track takes Bertha along its closest pass to the island around the 12th/13th, well i guess we will need some bonine !!! The current swell forecasts for Bermuda calls for a max of about eight to nine feet on the West side of the Island in that time frame: http://magicseaweed.com/Bermuda-MSW-Surf-Charts/70/ Certainly not the best conditions in the world but still not too bad! I've been in much worse and had a wonderful time regardless!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dontstayathome Posted July 9, 2008 #3 Share Posted July 9, 2008 At 5:50 p.m. the Weather Channel noted that Bertha, who had all but fizzled out yesterday, was growing in strength and width. They are expecting it to go to a Cat. #3 by morning. Also, they have it moving much closer to Bermuda than what was thought yesterday. Lastly, the reports showed waves and "swells" up to 16 feet high. The forecasters seem to be amazed by how this hurricane has come together, fizzled somewhat and then has grown into a near Cat. #3 storm again. They said that the island of Bermuda has been put on "alert". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
photocrazy29 Posted July 10, 2008 #4 Share Posted July 10, 2008 We just got off the Carnival Valor on Sunday and we were about 4 hours away from Miami at 4 in the morning when we sailed through the forming of Bertha. It was simply amazing!! Being from CA, we don't get the hurricanes, I have nver heard or seen anything like it. The thunder was so loud and the lightening so bright. The seas weren't too bad at that point. I am glad that we missed it!!:D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Mach* Posted July 10, 2008 #5 Share Posted July 10, 2008 Bertha is a category 2 with max sustained winds of 90 knots. NHC is projecting a track that will take her approx. 200 miles east of Bermuda: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/083216.shtml?5day#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FIRELT5 Posted July 10, 2008 #6 Share Posted July 10, 2008 Bertha is a category 2 with max sustained winds of 90 knots. NHC is projecting a track that will take her approx. 200 miles east of Bermuda: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/083216.shtml?5day#contents Latest Guidance from some reliable models have Bertha a bit closer than that. You may see the Bermuda Weather Service issue a Tropical Storm Watch on Friday. The Ph'd's @ the NHC are having some difficulty with intensity & track. This is turning into an educated guessing game ????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Mach* Posted July 11, 2008 #7 Share Posted July 11, 2008 Latest Guidance from some reliable models have Bertha a bit closer than that. You may see the Bermuda Weather Service issue a Tropical Storm Watch on Friday. The Ph'd's @ the NHC are having some difficulty with intensity & track. This is turning into an educated guessing game ????? Perhaps a bit... best guess now appears that that she'll track north east or east in the next 24 to 48 hours... She's currently a Cat 1 storm with 75 knot max sustained winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FIRELT5 Posted July 11, 2008 #8 Share Posted July 11, 2008 000 WTNT32 KNHC 111435 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM AST FRI JUL 11 2008 ...BERTHA ABOUT A WEEK OLD...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SCHEDULED FOR LATER TODAY... AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 310 MILES... 500 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... BERTHA'S FRINGES WILL BE NEARING BERMUDA ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRPLANE IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK BERTHA LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...28.5 N...62.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ------------------------------------------------------------------ This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov or http://hurricanes.gov PLEASE NOTE: Timely delivery of this email is NOT GUARANTEED. DISCLAIMER: http://www.weather.gov/disclaimer.php PRIVACY: http://www.weather.gov/privacy.php FEEDBACK: mail-storm@seahorse.nhc.noaa.gov ------------------------------------------------------------------ You are currently subscribed to the "mail-storm-atlan" NHC Advisory Mailing List. To unsubscribe from this mailing list, visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/unsub/mail-storm-atlan.shtml?firelt5@comcast.net You may also unsubscribe by sending an empty message to: <mailto:mail-storm-atlan-unsubscribe-firelt5=comcast.net@seahorse.nhc.noaa.gov> Hopefully, once the bird is in the air, we may get a bit of better guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FIRELT5 Posted July 11, 2008 #9 Share Posted July 11, 2008 http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/archive/access.cgi?year=2008&storm=Bertha&product=URNT15&who=AF&mission=01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FIRELT5 Posted July 11, 2008 #10 Share Posted July 11, 2008 000 Wtnt32 Knhc 111747 Tcpat2 Bulletin Hurricane Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 34a Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al022008 200 Pm Ast Fri Jul 11 2008 ...air Force Reconnaissance Plane Reaches Bertha... A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect For Bermuda. A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours. For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued By Your Local Weather Office. At 200 Pm Ast...1800z...the Center Of Hurricane Bertha Was Located By An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Plane Near Latitude 28.7 North...longitude 62.0 West Or About 300 Miles...480 Km... South-southeast Of Bermuda. Bertha Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 6 Mph...9 Km/hr. This General Motion Is Expected To Continue Today With A Gradual Turn To The North During The Next 24 Hours. On This Track... Bertha's Fringes Will Be Nearing Bermuda On Saturday. Preliminary Data From The Reconnaissance Plane Indicate That The Maximum Winds Could Be A Little Bit Stronger Than Previously Estimated. However...until This Data Is Confirmed...the Maximum Sustained Winds Are Estimated To Be Near 85 Mph...140 Km/hr...with Higher Gusts. Bertha Is A Category One Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson Scale. Some Fluctuations In Intensity Are Possible During The Next 24 Hours. Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 30 Miles...45 Km...from The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 140 Miles...220 Km. Minimum Central Pressure Recently Reported By An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Plane Was 977 Mb...28.85 Inches. Large Swells And High Surf Are Affecting Bermuda...and These Conditions Are Expected To Persist For The Next Few Days. Repeating The 200 Pm Ast Position...28.7 N...62.0 W. Movement Toward...northwest Near 6 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...85 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...977 Mb. The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At 500 Pm Ast. $$ Forecaster Avila Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FIRELT5 Posted July 11, 2008 #11 Share Posted July 11, 2008 Wtnt32 Knhc 112040 Tcpat2 Bulletin Hurricane Bertha Advisory Number 35 Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al022008 500 Pm Ast Fri Jul 11 2008 ...large Eye Of Bertha Leisurely Moving North-northwestward... A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect For Bermuda. A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours. For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued By Your Local Weather Office. At 500 Pm Ast...2100z...the Large Eye Of Hurricane Bertha Was Located Near Latitude 29.1 North...longitude 62.2 West Or About 270 Miles...435 Km...southeast Of Bermuda. Bertha Is Moving Toward The North-northwest Near 5 Mph...7 Km/hr. A Gradual Turn To The North Is Expected During The Next 12 To 24 Hours. On This Track...the Core Of Bertha Is Expected To Pass Well East Of Bermuda But Any Deviation To The Left Could Bring Stronger Winds To The Island And Adjacent Waters. Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 90 Mph...150 Km/hr...with Higher Gusts. Bertha Is A Category One Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson Scale. No Significant Change In Strength Is Anticipated During The Next 24 Hours. Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 35 Miles...55 Km...from The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 140 Miles...220 Km. Minimum Central Pressure Reported By An Air Force Hurricane Hunter Plane Was 976 Mb...28.82 Inches. The Outer Bands Of Bertha Are Expected To Produce Rainfall Amounts In Bermuda Of 1 To 2 Inches During The Next Two Days. Repeating The 500 Pm Ast Position...29.1 N...62.2 W. Movement Toward...north-northwest Near 5 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...90 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...976 Mb. An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At 800 Pm Ast Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 1100 Pm Ast. $$ Forecaster Avila ------------------------------------------------------------------ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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