dream july 13 :official weather forcast from fox 25 news

[dsmini]

Bertha looks like she'll strengthen a little bit and has started

turning the corner, heading eventually toward the north. It looks like a close

pass to Bermuda, but far enough away that it shouldn't cause too many problems

except for some rough seas. Obviously, that matters most to you, since you're

on a cruise!

 

The official forecast track takes Bertha along its closest pass to the island

around the 12th/13th,

 

 

well i guess we will need some bonine !!!

[*Mach*]

Bertha looks like she'll strengthen a little bit and has started

turning the corner, heading eventually toward the north. It looks like a close

pass to Bermuda, but far enough away that it shouldn't cause too many problems

except for some rough seas. Obviously, that matters most to you, since you're

on a cruise!

 

The official forecast track takes Bertha along its closest pass to the island

around the 12th/13th,

 

 

well i guess we will need some bonine !!!

 

 

The current swell forecasts for Bermuda calls for a max of about eight to nine feet on the West side of the Island in that time frame:

http://magicseaweed.com/Bermuda-MSW-Surf-Charts/70/

 

Certainly not the best conditions in the world but still not too bad! I've been in much worse and had a wonderful time regardless!!!

[dontstayathome]

At 5:50 p.m. the Weather Channel noted that Bertha, who had all but fizzled out yesterday, was growing in strength and width. They are expecting it to go to a Cat. #3 by morning. Also, they have it moving much closer to Bermuda than what was thought yesterday. Lastly, the reports showed waves and "swells" up to 16 feet high. The forecasters seem to be amazed by how this hurricane has come together, fizzled somewhat and then has grown into a near Cat. #3 storm again. They said that the island of Bermuda has been put on "alert".

[photocrazy29]

We just got off the Carnival Valor on Sunday and we were about 4 hours away from Miami at 4 in the morning when we sailed through the forming of Bertha. It was simply amazing!! Being from CA, we don't get the hurricanes, I have nver heard or seen anything like it. The thunder was so loud and the lightening so bright. The seas weren't too bad at that point. I am glad that we missed it!!:D

[*Mach*]

Bertha is a category 2 with max sustained winds of 90 knots.

NHC is projecting a track that will take her approx. 200 miles east of Bermuda:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/083216.shtml?5day#contents

[FIRELT5]

Bertha is a category 2 with max sustained winds of 90 knots.

NHC is projecting a track that will take her approx. 200 miles east of Bermuda:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/083216.shtml?5day#contents

 

Latest Guidance from some reliable models have Bertha a bit closer than that.

 

You may see the Bermuda Weather Service issue a Tropical Storm Watch on Friday. The Ph'd's @ the NHC are having some difficulty with intensity & track. This is turning into an educated guessing game ?????

[*Mach*]

Latest Guidance from some reliable models have Bertha a bit closer than that.

 

You may see the Bermuda Weather Service issue a Tropical Storm Watch on Friday. The Ph'd's @ the NHC are having some difficulty with intensity & track. This is turning into an educated guessing game ?????

 

 

Perhaps a bit... best guess now appears that that she'll track north east or east in the next 24 to 48 hours... She's currently a Cat 1 storm with 75 knot max sustained winds...

[FIRELT5]

000

WTNT32 KNHC 111435

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 34

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008

1100 AM AST FRI JUL 11 2008

 

...BERTHA ABOUT A WEEK OLD...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SCHEDULED FOR

LATER TODAY...

 

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...

GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 310 MILES...

500 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

 

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR.

THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL

TURN TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...

BERTHA'S FRINGES WILL BE NEARING BERMUDA ON SATURDAY.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT

24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRPLANE IS SCHEDULED

TO CHECK BERTHA LATER TODAY.

 

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140

MILES...220 KM.

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

 

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

 

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...28.5 N...62.0 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

 

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500

PM AST.

 

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

 

 

 

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Hopefully, once the bird is in the air, we may get a bit of better guidance

[FIRELT5]

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/archive/access.cgi?year=2008&storm=Bertha&product=URNT15&who=AF&mission=01

[FIRELT5]

000

Wtnt32 Knhc 111747

Tcpat2

Bulletin

Hurricane Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 34a

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al022008

200 Pm Ast Fri Jul 11 2008

 

...air Force Reconnaissance Plane Reaches Bertha...

 

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect For Bermuda. A Tropical

Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible

Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

 

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

 

At 200 Pm Ast...1800z...the Center Of Hurricane Bertha Was Located

By An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Plane Near Latitude 28.7

North...longitude 62.0 West Or About 300 Miles...480 Km...

South-southeast Of Bermuda.

 

Bertha Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 6 Mph...9 Km/hr.

This General Motion Is Expected To Continue Today With A Gradual

Turn To The North During The Next 24 Hours. On This Track...

Bertha's Fringes Will Be Nearing Bermuda On Saturday.

 

Preliminary Data From The Reconnaissance Plane Indicate That The

Maximum Winds Could Be A Little Bit Stronger Than Previously

Estimated. However...until This Data Is Confirmed...the Maximum

Sustained Winds Are Estimated To Be Near 85 Mph...140 Km/hr...with

Higher Gusts. Bertha Is A Category One Hurricane On The

Saffir-simpson Scale. Some Fluctuations In Intensity Are Possible

During The Next 24 Hours.

 

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 30 Miles...45 Km...from

The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 140

Miles...220 Km.

 

Minimum Central Pressure Recently Reported By An Air Force Reserve

Reconnaissance Plane Was 977 Mb...28.85 Inches.

 

Large Swells And High Surf Are Affecting Bermuda...and These

Conditions Are Expected To Persist For The Next Few Days.

 

Repeating The 200 Pm Ast Position...28.7 N...62.0 W. Movement

Toward...northwest Near 6 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...85 Mph.

Minimum Central Pressure...977 Mb.

 

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At

500 Pm Ast.

 

$$

Forecaster Avila

[FIRELT5]

Wtnt32 Knhc 112040

Tcpat2

Bulletin

Hurricane Bertha Advisory Number 35

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al022008

500 Pm Ast Fri Jul 11 2008

 

...large Eye Of Bertha Leisurely Moving North-northwestward...

 

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect For Bermuda. A Tropical

Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible

Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

 

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

 

At 500 Pm Ast...2100z...the Large Eye Of Hurricane Bertha Was

Located Near Latitude 29.1 North...longitude 62.2 West Or About 270

Miles...435 Km...southeast Of Bermuda.

 

Bertha Is Moving Toward The North-northwest Near 5 Mph...7 Km/hr. A

Gradual Turn To The North Is Expected During The Next 12 To 24

Hours. On This Track...the Core Of Bertha Is Expected To Pass Well

East Of Bermuda But Any Deviation To The Left Could Bring Stronger

Winds To The Island And Adjacent Waters.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 90 Mph...150 Km/hr...with Higher

Gusts. Bertha Is A Category One Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson

Scale. No Significant Change In Strength Is Anticipated During The

Next 24 Hours.

 

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 35 Miles...55 Km...from

The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 140

Miles...220 Km.

 

Minimum Central Pressure Reported By An Air Force Hurricane Hunter

Plane Was 976 Mb...28.82 Inches.

 

The Outer Bands Of Bertha Are Expected To Produce Rainfall Amounts

In Bermuda Of 1 To 2 Inches During The Next Two Days.

 

Repeating The 500 Pm Ast Position...29.1 N...62.2 W. Movement

Toward...north-northwest Near 5 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...90

Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...976 Mb.

 

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane

Center At 800 Pm Ast Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 1100

Pm Ast.

 

$$

Forecaster Avila

 

 

 

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[FIRELT5]

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