94L doubtful...

[*Mach*]

From the NHC:

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008

 

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

 

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL

STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

 

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE

LOCATED ABOUT 770 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME

LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION TO FORM IS DECREASING SINCE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE

ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

[NJBill]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

 

...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED

ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME

BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY

MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE

POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY. AN AIR FORCE

RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS

AREA THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM IS

EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE

WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

 

 

[NJBill]

Special Tropical Disturbance Statement

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

1045 Am Edt Wed Jul 16 2008

 

Satellite Images And Surface Observations Indicate That The Area Of

Low Pressure Located About 225 Miles East Of The Windward Islands

Has Become Better-organized And A Tropical Depression Could Be

Forming. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Will Be

Investigating This System This Afternoon To Determine If A Tropical

Cyclone Has Formed. Even If No Development Occurs...localized

Heavy Rains And Gusty Winds Are Possible In The Windward Islands

Today And Tonight. All Interests In The Windward Islands Should

Monitor The Progress Of This System...and For Information Specific

To Your Area...please Consult Statements From Your Local Weather

[*Mach*]

From the NHC...

 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

 

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 35.4N 59.8W AT 17/0300

UTC MOVING SE AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995

MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO

HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER

MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BERTHA IS MAINTAINING

TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT

THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE STORM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO

MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY FOR A DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER GRADUAL

WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS OCEAN WATERS COOL AND UPPER LEVEL SHEAR

INCREASES. THE CYCLONE IS PRODUCING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF

DEEP CONVECTION WITH A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM

33N-37N BETWEEN 57W-63W AND SE OF THE CENTER FROM WITHIN 120 NM

OF LINE FROM 30N50W TO 34N56W.

 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT WITH A

1009 MB LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12N. THIS WAVE WAS

INVESTIGATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND FOUND

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BUT NO WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION

CENTER. HOWEVER CONDITIONS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ARE CONDUCIVE FOR

FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION

LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM

IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE

WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO

ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 61W-65W WITH

SCATTERED/LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE WINDWARD

ISLANDS.

 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT. ALTHOUGH

THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED THE UPPER

LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS COULD BECOME

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA DURING

THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO

MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TODAY AND TOMORROW

...WITH FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE

HIGHER TERRAIN. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG

CONVECTION IS S OF 21N BETWEEN 74W-84W INCLUDING THE NW COAST OF

COLOMBIA THROUGH PANAMA INTO NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. SCATTERED

MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ACROSS HAITI...ERN CUBA AND THE

WINDWARD PASSAGE.

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/170600.shtml?

 

 

The risk for further development of the first tropical wave into a hurricane has dropped from high to medium. Satellite recon shows that this wave is already intereacting with land on the North Coast of South America.

[HCW]

Storms do not form in that area this time of the year. Can somebody tell me the last storm to form in the graveyard in July ?

[TVMet]

From the National Hurricane Center...

 

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY. AN

AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY

INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE. A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM AT

ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD

THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE

CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE

TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS

JAMAICA TONIGHT.

 

Forecast models:

 

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vi...ack_early2.png

[TVMet]

Model output...

 

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early3.png

 

NHC Update Saturday morning...

 

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL

WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER

ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

AT 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE

YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS

SYSTEM.