*Mach* Posted July 15, 2008 #1 Share Posted July 15, 2008 From the NHC: ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. 1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 770 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IS DECREASING SINCE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJBill Posted July 16, 2008 #2 Share Posted July 16, 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008 ... SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJBill Posted July 16, 2008 #3 Share Posted July 16, 2008 Special Tropical Disturbance Statement Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl 1045 Am Edt Wed Jul 16 2008 Satellite Images And Surface Observations Indicate That The Area Of Low Pressure Located About 225 Miles East Of The Windward Islands Has Become Better-organized And A Tropical Depression Could Be Forming. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Will Be Investigating This System This Afternoon To Determine If A Tropical Cyclone Has Formed. Even If No Development Occurs...localized Heavy Rains And Gusty Winds Are Possible In The Windward Islands Today And Tonight. All Interests In The Windward Islands Should Monitor The Progress Of This System...and For Information Specific To Your Area...please Consult Statements From Your Local Weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Mach* Posted July 17, 2008 Author #4 Share Posted July 17, 2008 From the NHC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 35.4N 59.8W AT 17/0300 UTC MOVING SE AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BERTHA IS MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE STORM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY FOR A DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS OCEAN WATERS COOL AND UPPER LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES. THE CYCLONE IS PRODUCING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 33N-37N BETWEEN 57W-63W AND SE OF THE CENTER FROM WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 30N50W TO 34N56W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT WITH A 1009 MB LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12N. THIS WAVE WAS INVESTIGATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND FOUND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BUT NO WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER CONDITIONS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 61W-65W WITH SCATTERED/LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TODAY AND TOMORROW ...WITH FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 21N BETWEEN 74W-84W INCLUDING THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH PANAMA INTO NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ACROSS HAITI...ERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/170600.shtml? The risk for further development of the first tropical wave into a hurricane has dropped from high to medium. Satellite recon shows that this wave is already intereacting with land on the North Coast of South America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HCW Posted July 18, 2008 #5 Share Posted July 18, 2008 Storms do not form in that area this time of the year. Can somebody tell me the last storm to form in the graveyard in July ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TVMet Posted July 18, 2008 #6 Share Posted July 18, 2008 From the National Hurricane Center... SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE. A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS JAMAICA TONIGHT. Forecast models: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vi...ack_early2.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TVMet Posted July 19, 2008 #7 Share Posted July 19, 2008 Model output... http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early3.png NHC Update Saturday morning... SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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