Tropical Storm Fay

[CoachTerry14]

[CoachTerry14]

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 5

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al062008

500 Pm Edt Sat Aug 16 2008

 

Reports From An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Indicate That Fay

Is A Little Weaker Than Believed Earlier...with The Initial

Intensity Near 35 Kt And The Minimum Pressure At 1006 Mb. The

Satellite Appearance Was Ragged A Few Hours Ago...but A New Cluster

Of Strong Convection Is Developing In The Southeastern Quadrant.

The Cirrus Outflow Is Good In The Southeastern Semicircle And Fair

Elsewhere.

 

The Initial Motion Is 280/14. Fay Remains On The South Side Of A

Low/mid-level Ridge...with The Large-scale Models Forecasting A

Weakness In The Ridge Over The Eastern Gulf Of Mexico Or Florida

That Should Allow Fay To Turn Toward The North-northwest Or North

After 36 Hr. There Is A Large Spread In The Model Guidance On When

And How Sharply Fay Will Turn. The Ecmwf And Nam Models Remain On

The Eastern Side Of The Guidance Envelope...and Have Been Joined By

The Gfdl Which Has Shifted Eastward Since The Previous Run. These

Models Call For A Southeastern Florida Landfall. The Gfs...hwrf...

Gfdn...florida State Superensemble...and The Consensus Models

Forecast Fay To Cross West Central Cuba And Move Near Or Over The

West Coast Of The Florida Peninsula. The Ukmet And Nogaps Have

Both Shifted East Of Their Previous Runs...but Are Still On The

West Side Of The Guidance Envelope In Calling For A Motion Toward

The Florida Panhandle. Overall...the Guidance Envelope And The

Model Consensus Has Changed Little Since The Last Advisory. The

New Forecast Track Is A Little Faster Than The Previous Track And

Is Shifted A Little To The East After The 48 Hr Point. Everyone In

The Florida Peninsula Should Monitor The Progress Of Fay...as Most

Locations There Have About The Same Chances Of Experiencing

Hurricane-force Winds According To The Nhc Wind Speed Probability

Product.

 

When Fay Is Over Water...it Appears That Atmospheric Conditions Will

Be Favorable For Strengthening Through 72 Hr. Thus...the Intensity

Will Be Controlled By Land Interaction And The Resulting Impacts On

The Storm Structure. All Guidance Continues To Forecast

Strengthening...and The Intensity Forecast Follows Suit In Best

Agreement With The Ships Model. However...this Is A Low Confidence

Intensity Forecast. Fay Could Strengthen Rapidly If It Becomes

Well Organized Over Water...such As While Passing South Of Cuba Or

Over The Straits Of Florida. On The Other Hand...it Might Not

Strengthen Much At All If Land Interaction Prevents Organization.

The Intensity Forecast Calls For Fay To Weaken Over The United

States After Landfall. Should It Remain Over Water After 72

Hr...the Large-scale Models Forecast Increasing Westerly Vertical

Shear Over The System.

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 16/2100z 19.3n 75.2w 35 Kt

12hr Vt 17/0600z 19.9n 77.0w 40 Kt

24hr Vt 17/1800z 20.9n 79.1w 50 Kt...inland

36hr Vt 18/0600z 22.2n 80.7w 55 Kt

48hr Vt 18/1800z 23.6n 81.6w 55 Kt...inland

72hr Vt 19/1800z 27.0n 82.5w 75 Kt

96hr Vt 20/1800z 30.0n 82.5w 50 Kt...inland

120hr Vt 21/1800z 33.0n 82.5w 35 Kt...inland

 

$$

Forecaster Beven

[CoachTerry14]

[CoachTerry14]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/vHLS/Fay_081760818/player.html

[CoachTerry14]