TD 09 in the Pacific...

[*Mach*]

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062009

800 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2009

 

CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AROUND THE

AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE

PACIFIC OCEAN WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII. SATELLITE

INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 2.0...AND

THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E. THE

CENTER POSITION IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE...BUT A 1116 UTC

AMSU PASS INDICATES THAT IT IS PROBABLY NOT ANY FARTHER SOUTH THAN

ABOUT 12N.

 

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL

RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD

ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND THE RESULTANT MOTION IS A QUICK

275/16. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN ANTICYCLONE WILL

BREAK OFF THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE AND MOVE WESTWARD...KEEPING

THE DEPRESSION ON A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN

ISLANDS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO

WEAKEN BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE SHALLOW ENOUGH AT

THAT TIME TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

 

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING

FOR ONLY THE FIRST 36-48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH TIME SOUTHWESTERLY TO

WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE AS SHOWN

BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES

MODEST STRENGTHENING THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN STEADY WEAKENING

THEREAFTER. THIS SCENARIO AGREES WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND IS A

COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFDL AND THE HWRF MODELS.

 

THIS DEPRESSION WILL BE CROSSING 140W SOON...AND ADDITIONAL

INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE

CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 30/1500Z 12.0N 139.7W 30 KT

12HR VT 31/0000Z 12.1N 141.9W 35 KT

24HR VT 31/1200Z 12.3N 144.9W 40 KT

36HR VT 01/0000Z 12.6N 147.7W 50 KT

48HR VT 01/1200Z 13.1N 150.6W 45 KT

72HR VT 02/1200Z 14.0N 156.0W 35 KT

96HR VT 03/1200Z 15.0N 161.0W 30 KT

120HR VT 04/1200Z 15.5N 166.0W 25 KT

 

$$

FORECASTER BERG

 

 

Considering the direction of travel and the forecast, this system shouldn't be a bother to anyone...

:)

[Hurricane Expert]

I have summary and outlook on Tropical Storm Lana on my Pacific hurricane update.