OmarOak

Most brands, regardless of industry are for sale given the right price.

Today, Cruise lines are distressed assets. The problem is a lack of Buyers who will pay anything beyond a discounted liquidation value of the hard assets. If Carnival sells HAL for $1 Billion, but have $2 Billion of debt related to it, selling just digs their hole deeper.

4 hours ago, Host Jazzbeau said:

Two and a half points (somewhat contradictory):

(1) An analysis I read shows that CCL has the lowest debt ratio of the big three.

That suggests they have less need to hold a 'yard sale' to raise cash.

 

OTOH:

(2a) They also have the most brands and ships, which gives them more flexibility to sell off assets and retire debt.

(2b) Sycamore Partners hired Orlando Ashford as Chief Executive of Azamara – I believe he has some familiarity with HAL. 😉

I can see a three-tier cruise line with HAL (premium), Azamara (upper premium), and Seabourn (luxury) – all touting small ships for their class, longer journeys, destination focus.

Not sure how this would leave CCL, with only Carnival and Princess [and ~Cunard] in the US market – IMHO it would make more sense to ditch HAL and keep Seabourn.  But the folks on the Seabourn forum are excited about getting out from under CCL management!

 

Sycamore Partners is not a "builder", they are asset strippers.  

Research what they have done to Staples, Chateau St. Michelle and others in their portfolio... 

Our first HAL Cruise (K'dam) was in a Vista Suite. All subsequent cruises have been in a Veranda. We didn't find the extra few feet of space usable and really disliked the configuration (bed rather than seating area adjacent to the Veranda).

In prior experiences on Princess, we did find the mini-suite a valuable upgrade.

15 hours ago, ottahand7 said:

I saw your tour come back yesterday afternoon and it looked like all aboard were enjoying themselves.  After a lousy HA sunset cruise in Aruba we are wary but your day looked like a winner. Thanks for sharing the great pictures.  Here is our dinner view of the Pitons. 

Great bottle of wine! Presuming you brought the Littorai with you?

1 hour ago, Mary229 said:

Yet another call to alter travel restrictions.  Before you jump in and say you can’t trust the industry please consider who do you think is going to defend the rights of the industry?   If you don’t trust the industry at this level perhaps you should reconsider letting them ferry you about the oceans.  Disagree all you want but don’t demean their integrity 
 

https://www.asta.org/files/FileDownloads/ASTA to WH Jeff Zients re Inbound Testing Order 2.1.2022 FINAL.pdf

Acknowledging that a party is not impartial and is advocating for their own commercial benefit is not demeaning their integrity.

Overall, HAL's mark-up is similar to restaurant pricing, approximately 2X Retail price. If you are a 3* and get a 25% discount that works out to 1.5X Retail. Neither examples are inclusive of Gratuity.

I am picky about wines (I am in the wine and restaurant industry) and always bring aboard my own wines and pay the corkage. If you prefer wines at the higher priced end of HAL's price spectrum, its worth bringing on your own selections.

The article is profoundly self-serving for the travel industry and the comparisons are ludicrous.

Cruise ships are congregate living situations where large numbers of people are living in relatively small, confined environments for extended periods.

An honest comparison would be with Continuing Care facilities, College Dorms, and truly  similar situations. 

16 hours ago, Mary229 said:

Perhaps you didn’t actually read the letter and the citations from researchers, the UK and EU authorities and the WHO?  

Fascinating to me that you and others are willing to believe an industry group's self serving excerpts of UK and European sources ahead of our own CDC.

4 hours ago, Mary229 said:

It seems I am not the only one who thinks the testing protocol is based on misguided assumptions, I have good company 

Travel Industry Coalition Urges Lifting of International Testing Requirement for Vaccinated Travelers

 

https://www.airlines.org/news/travel-industry-coalition-urges-lifting-of-international-testing-requirement-for-vaccinated-travelers/

an Industry group seeking to be less regulated because its in their economic interest (regardless of the risk  to their customers), what a shock!

Self-serving industry groups are rarely good company.

1 hour ago, Mary229 said:

Walking around my well to do neighborhood this morning we remarked how the cruise industry is losing out to the RV industry.   My parents were in the resort campground business when I was a kid and I have not seen so many new RVs since the late 1970s.  People don't get economics, the competition between cruise lines is not the issue, it is the competition for the vacation/tourist dollar.  And you are right the cruise lines are losing.

 

Last fall they thought they were doing OK but then this wave of cancellations.  It would be interesting to see what a credible survey shows for the reasons of cancellations

I think the underlying issue is the overall lack of vacation/tourist dollars.

Auto, RV and VRBO type travel is doing best because the traveler has most control of their situation.

The Hotel industry has been hit hard; so have restaurants and other travel related sectors. Trade shows are being canceled, postponed and those that have been held have attracted a tiny fraction of their pre-Covid attendance. There was a late Summer/Fall uptick but Omicron crashed that.

People are less inclined to travel overall and probably will be until there is a "new normal".  

Cruises will probably be the last travel sector to recover because, for most, a cruise requires air travel, a hotel stay, restaurants and then the ship and its limitations including medical care availability on ship.

Presumably, all of the cruise lines are managed by people who know that if they bow to the extremes they will lose as many passengers as they gain.

Loosening vaccination, testing and or masking might gain them some anti-vax, anti-test, and anti-mask passengers but will chase away at least as many others.

Given the reputational risk of a mass outbreak (as well as the practical hassles), I expect most lines will maintain intelligent protocols as long as necessary to protect their business interests and the health of their passengers.

Perhaps some line will go the other direction and waive vaccination, testing and masking....If so, I hope they beef up their medical staffs and perhaps even have ventilators available....

39 minutes ago, mightycruisequeen said:

We got this survey too.  Glad they actually want to know why so many are canceling cruises. 

Do you suppose it's occurring to them that their current requirements of vaccination/masking/testing are sinking their profits?

 

...or do you suppose it's concern that vaccination/masking/testing requirements not being strict enough or being ignored by petulant passengers will put them needlessly at risk? I've cancelled two for that reason.

Sadly, my concern has been heightened by some of those posting on this forum.

Regardless, Cruise Lines are taking commercial risks - (alienate the cautious or alienate the unconcerned), publicity risks (the Petri dish comment earlier) and legal risks as they try to navigate through this.  

1 hour ago, OlsSalt said:

 

Cruise industry trade groups are part of the hospitality industry dialogue - which I believe is the fifth largest part of the US economy.  (Need to fact check this).  

 

The sooner all parts of the hospitality industry get all their parts moving together, the better for everyone. Moving from pandemic to endemic is one way to cool the heat on this present very unfortunate situation. 

 

A pre-covid 2019 look at the travel and hospitality industry - prepared by Deloitte:  

 

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/consumer-business/us-consumer-2019-us-travel-and-hospitality-outlook.pdf

Most of us in the hospitality are supportive of pandemic mitigation measures.

We require all of our employees to be fully vaccinated. We require all of our guests to demonstrate proof of vaccination.

No exceptions and wouldn't have it any other way.  

I have every right to know if another person is deliberately putting my life at risk by potentially exposing me to a deadly disease. Any comparison of Covid to HIV is laughable. 

Covid-19 is a unique situation where another individual's choice can kill or disable an innocent. Selfishness is not a virtue. 

2 hours ago, mightycruisequeen said:

Wow, I think if I got covid after having been fully vaccinated, I'd be pretty furious at big pharma (and myself, for getting vaccinated, of course).

The problem isn't getting vaccinated. The problem is those who selfishly refuse to get vaccinated and continue the cycle of spread.

11 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

The truth of the matter is  that people can get sick but being vaccinated prevents serious illness & death  .If the cruise line does over board with  very strict protocols they just may drive their recovery business away  & that could really  hit them hard  in the pocket book   . I can;t speak for others but ,in our case we have been shut in for so long that we want our freedoms back   & we are fully vaccinated   .Any harsh  protocols would be a turn off for us . We have alternatives like doing land trips  . I feel that the tourism industry is so hungry for business ,that they will bend ;because if they don't bend they will break 

 

 We may be saying similar things  in a different approach 

Tell that to the fully vaccinated teacher in our school district who is now in hospital and on a Respirator. Too early for the victory lap.... 

18 hours ago, idiebabe said:

I have a friend who lives across from Seattle and I'm hearing the same from her. 😢  You're right only a few MSM outlets are accurately reporting what is happening and too many of them are either playing it down as "Innocent Protests"  or barely covering it.  I'm afraid Journalism is dead and has been replaced by "Political Narratives"!

 

 

Sorry, but this post is a false "Political Narrative". Just because you don't like reporting doesn't make it inaccurate.

11 hours ago, Boatdrill said:

 

Please see this article from the Seattle Times, covering a March 13, 2021 incident involving extensive property damage, and police assaulted with rocks.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/crime/police-make-arrests-amid-downtown-seattle-march/

6 weeks ago....Last night, absolutely nothing. Peaceful and quite enjoyable. 

9 hours ago, Aquahound said:

 

Minor protests?  I have to respond to this.  This post is very far from factually correct.  I work in Seattle and I travel frequently to Portland.  I witnessed some of these riots and I've seen the property damage including the $2million damage done to the courthouse in Portland.  The coverage of these riots was NOT media sensationalism.  If anything, the media didn't portray ENOUGH how much these riots destroyed people's properties and livelihoods. 

 

Hundreds of police officers have quit in both cities, and they have decriminalized many crimes committed by homeless.  Local officials are not doing their jobs and are not doing enough to protect citizens and visitors.  I'm sorry to say that as WA resident who works in Seattle; until they reverse course on this dangerous path, I do not recommend Seattle or Portland as a tourist destination.

I live and own 3 businesses located in downtown Portland. This is utter nonsense. Absolutely not true.

Protests have been primarily in a 4 square block area and have been peaceful for months. 

4 hours ago, Boatdrill said:

Some cruise lines, such as NCL and Crystal, use the piers that are along downtown's waterfront. HAL, Princess and others use Pier 91, which is farther away from the downtown area. However it doesn't matter too much where the ships are docked. The hotels that the cruise lines use are in the downtown area,  and during cruise season, they're packed.  The area is a wonderful place to walk, shop, and dine pre-cruise.  The news coverage of the riots last summer on the same streets that many of us have walked in a normally safe tourist area - such as outside of Nordstrom's flagship store, which was heavily damaged -was alarming.  The protests continue, with vandalism and assaults. Last month several people were arrested during a downtown protest two blocks from the Sheraton, and up the hill from Pike Place. Maybe the answer is to just stay at an airport hotel pre-cruise. 

Not sure what anyone talking of the unrest in Seattle is referring to. I am typing from a Hotel adjacent to Pike Place Market. Had a nice Dinner, and a walk afterward. No issues. Far too much media blowing up minor protests into major issues. Likewise in my home city of Portland. Fear mongering sensationalized by some in the media with a bias against the issues that led to protests.

1 hour ago, iceman93 said:

I'm disappointed but not surprised to see a faction here labeling, with a ridiculously broad brush, those who do not agree 100% with them as "anti-vaxxers".  There are a myriad of reasons why a particular individual may not want to get vaccinated, and the fringe "Bill Gates wants to implant a microchip in me" view is a very tiny percentage of them.  Just speaking for myself, I'm not anti-vax at all and am in the process of getting all my family members who are eligible vaccinated.

 

The debate in this thread is whether or not HAL should mandate 100% vaccination for their passengers (amazingly, those most in favor of this mandate don't seem to care so much about the crew, but I digress).  A majority of posters here have made it quite clear they are only interested in cruising in the future if the 100% vaccinated mandate is in place.  And I understand their point of view, especially those whose biggest fear is a ship being stuck at sea due to an outbreak of COVID-19.

 

My point of view is that the problem with that scenario, though, isn't that some passengers may not be vaccinated and could catch COVID-19.  It's that the powers in charge of the ports would still be so afraid of this virus that they refuse to let a ship dock that has infected passengers.  Maybe we should focus on them, and getting them to realize that overreacting to the threat of a virus with a >99% survival rate (even pre-vaccine) is silly.

 

How would we all feel about cruising if ports could turn away ships that have any cases of norovirus onboard?  Yes, I know that noro is not the 'rona.  But a quick look at wikipedia reveals that 200,000 people die of norovirus every year.  So I ask again, what if there was a chance that after boarding a cruise, if there was a noro outbreak on board, you'd be stuck at sea with no ports willing to accept the ship?  Would you demand extreme measures before you would board any ship just to avoid that possibility?  Or would you say that the ports who would behave in such an extreme manner are clearly overreacting?

Your definition of "silly" is my definition of common sense. Everyone, Passengers and Crew should be vaccinated.

My definition of "silly" is trying to equate Covid 19 and a norovirus.

Perhaps you don't know any "long haulers" but death is not the only relevant statistic when considering the long term risks of Covid-19.

Reading through this entire thread leads me to believe businesses will have to make a binary choice to either:

1. serve potential customers who are pro-vaccine

or

2. serve potential customers who are anti-vaccine 

My businesses are pro-vaccine and I am choosing group 1; I hope HAL does likewise.

1 hour ago, iceman93 said:

Your "option one" isn't necessarily delusion.  The pandemic, all but the fearmongering, is over already.  Kids and parents are enjoying pool areas at community centers and resorts all over the country.  Airplanes have been filling the skies for months, and all the seats are full as well.  People have had enough with unnecessary lockdowns, and most folks have either already had COVID (whether they know it or not) or are in various stages of getting vaccinated.  So CCL could just be waiting for government bureaucrats to catch up with the reality rather than jumping on the fear bandwagon.

"Fearmongering", "Unneccessary",  LOL - that is the kind of thinking that led to the mess we have and continue to experience.

On 4/12/2021 at 11:36 AM, idiebabe said:

This was in response  to NY (and some other "Blue" States and reports of the same from the WH until Jen Psaka stated they were not in favor of Vaccine Passports) why DeSantis, Texas, and others came out and opposed the Vaccine Passports. If NY didn't start this, it wouldn't even be an issue but, IMO, I'm glad there was push back.  

 

We do not want either a "Red" or a "Blue" State telling us who we can or cannot allow into my Restaurant and agree it should be left up to the Private Businesses.  Unlike the majority who are opining on the subject I actually have a Seat at this Table!  I would rather the "Red" States decision not to allow proof of Vaccination be shown in order to enter a Restaurant than what NY is doing.  

 

We have been open throughout this entire Pandemic (except for two months closed for Indoor Dining).  Although we are located on the South End of a Tourist Town our Business is 95% Local.  This past year our loyal Customers supported us and if some choose not to Vaccinate,  they are not going to be turned away now because there is a Vaccine nor will the two Employees we have who have been on the fence about getting it be fired.  None of our Staff has had Covid...Zero Cases.  Our Indoor Dining has been very steady since reopening last May and since more and more are being Vaccinated we have been slammed for Indoor Dining.  Our To Go/Pick Ups and Deliveries have always been busy and Weekends and some other nights we are on 2 hours for Delivery and 1 1/2 hours for Pick Ups and actually have had to stop taking Orders due to the volume we still had to fill.  In addition, we have the Doordash Apps, etc.  

 

We follow our DHEC Guidelines and implemented our own enhanced Sanitation procedures.  We installed Plexiglass at our Counter and everyone has worn a Mask (and continues to do so even with our Mandate being lifted).  98% of our Staff is now Vaccinated with either 1st Dose or 2nd Dose.

 

If someone doesn't want to come in because we don't require Proof of Vaccination, then by all means go somewhere else.  That's your choice but we will not exclude some of our  Loyal Customers who supported us throughout this Pandemic (pre-Vaccine) because they choose not to get it. 

I too "have a seat at this table'.

It sounds like we have very different sorts of establishments, customers and State governments. I served on our Governor's Hospitality Industry Advisory Council and am happy to say that our relatively strict policies placed us among the lowest States for per capita incidence of Covid.

We work in close quarters and all of our employees will be fully vaccinated before we reopen for indoor service. No exceptions. We will require indoor guests to prove vaccination. No exceptions.

We recently made reservations available for our May reopening and booked out six weeks ahead within hours so our customer base appears fine with our policy. We had a few long time customers balk; that's their choice.

Personally, I will not eat indoors unless all concerned are vaccinated.

HAL will have a business decision to make. Many among us will not consider a cruise unless all are vaccinated. Others won't get vaccinated. International Airlines like Quantas are already requiring proof of vaccination to board a flight.  As a matter of economics, I hope HAL will do the same.