Donaghadee

Just now, Doc who loves to travel said:

Can you bring alcohol onboard Viking?  We carry wine onboard a lot of cruises even if there is a corkage fee. 

 

You can bring all the booze & wine you can carry aboard Viking's ships.  They're good with it.  No corkage fees or anything, and you can consume it anywhere you please.

We were trying to bring "excess" home during our little Chilean escapade...

6 hours ago, Clay Clayton said:

Wish it was available in Kindle Unlimited😢. Or at my library 😢😢

Twelve bucks won't kill ya and it's a fun read.

Back to Icelandair:  How persnickety are they about the 10Kg, 22Lb carry on bag weight limit for flights to & from the U.S.?  European airlines are kind of a PITA for those of us who drag around camera gear and I don't like surprises.

31 minutes ago, DaveSJ711 said:

We took four Viking cruises in quick succession in 2019-20, and three of them were in the PV class. Just for fun, we took two of the leftover champagne bottles home with us, along with countless shots of gin, vodka and scotch that we squirreled away in our luggage. Did it make sense from a packing standpoint? Absolutely not! But still...urp.

At the end of our Chilean fjords cruse in Valparaiso, December '19, my bride stashed around 20 little bottles of hooch in her suitcase.  She got busted by the Chilean customs guys.  She gave them a couple of bottles and they were happy.  Everyone had a good laugh.

Now I remember why we don't go with the Silver Spirits Deal:

PV3+ cabins are restocked daily with soft drinks, 4 single serve bottles of strong stuff and a couple of cans of beer.  Then there's more beer and plenty of passable wine included with lunch and dinner...

I somehow feel obliged to consume all of it, and it's plenty.  Urp...

Just wondering, how much do you have to drink to break even on the Silver Spirits package?

I know we looked at it years ago and came to the conclusion that our livers weren't up to the task.

Anything change?

1 hour ago, SantaFe1 said:

Why do I think this is exactly what we will have to carry?!?

At least it could have a belt clip?  Nah, that's too convenient.

Reminds me of years being tethered to a bloody pager back before cellphones.

I hope we don't have to drag around a brick like this:

1 hour ago, Dukefan said:

Thanks, you have been helpful.   We are averaging about 10 cases per 100,000 population per day and the puts our 7-day average at 70 and our 14 day average at about 140.  This puts us in the red.  So my poor memory has moved us from Green to Orange to Red. It appears we now know that  USA 14-day notification rate at around 140 cases per 100,000 and the test positivity rate at around 7.6%.

 

The full table for coding if anyone is interested is:

green: if the 14-day notification rate is lower than 25 cases per 100 000 and the test positivity rate below 4%;

orange:  if the 14-day notification rate is lower than 50 cases per 100 000 but the test positivity rate is 4% or higher or, if the 14-day notification rate is between 25 and 150 cases per 100 000 and the test positivity rate is below 4%;

red: if the 14-day cumulative COVID-19 case notification rate ranges from 50 to 150 and the test positivity rate of tests for COVID-19 infection is 4% or more, or if the 14-day cumulative COVID-19 case notification rate is more than 150 but less than 500;

dark red: if the 14-day cumulative COVID-19 case notification rate is 500 or more;

grey: if there is insufficient information or if the testing rate is lower than 300 cases per 100 000.

 

Maybe by the end of June or in July, we can make it to green or orange.

 

Thanks everyone for helping with this exercise.

Today's numbers are a snapshot.  Look at the graphs.  Look at the trend line and extrapolate it to where it intersects the x axis, about mid-June.  Of course it'll never hit zero because viruses don't work that way.  Call it a realistic bottom, it just won't get much better for a long time. There will always be background cases of COVID floating around until it runs out of hosts.

11 minutes ago, Dukefan said:

Well it is not as good of news as I orginally thought.   I found the US's current test positity rate and it was not 2.5% like I thought I remembered seeing but it is currently 7.6% probably putting the US in the orange group.

Numbers that are out there are really funky.  This has been fairly reliable:

https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/united-states/

Right in line with the 0.0007% that I posted yesterday.

9 minutes ago, Dukefan said:

One of life’s biggest challenges is balancing risk vs. reward.   I had a younger brother who would always overthink everything.   He could always find more reasons for not doing something than for doing something.   As a result, he did extraordinarily little, yet he would always express how lucky I was to be doing the things I was doing.  

 

I would often talk with him about how he needed to spend more time looking for reasons to do things and balance that with the reasons he always found for not doing those same things.   When the reason for doing something was greater than the reasons for not doing something – THEN DO IT, recognizing that some of the things you worry about happening will in fact happen.  When they do, be flexible and find a solution on the go.   Well, I was never able to convince him that my approach to life was better and certainly more fun that his.   He died at the age of 50 never really enjoying enough of the adventures our time on this earth provides.

 

The lessons here apply to each of us that are venturing out on one of the first cruises since the pandemic began.   The key, I think, is to recognize both the risks and the rewards of this adventure and to be willing to shift gears which one of the risks happen. It is often little things this that make life the wonderful adventure it is.

Shout it from the rooftops!  Enough hiding like scared mice...

On 5/14/2021 at 3:54 PM, DaveSJ711 said:

This book was reviewed in the New York Times today. It looks very interesting! Those who are taking a Viking cruise around Iceland, or who are considering a similar cruise, might want to read this book for some fascinating background about Iceland and Icelanders. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/11/books/review/how-iceland-changed-the-world-egill-bjarnason.html?action=click&module=Editors Picks&pgtype=Homepage

Thanks for finding that, it's now installed on my Kindle.  Looks like a good read.

I have a friend who runs the lab at a nearby hospital.  Sent her a text asking about the all-up cost of a PCR lab and the unit cost of the test.  I hope to have an answer sometime tomorrow.  I'll share what I learn.

10 minutes ago, sleepybobo said:

Per the headline news on CC today, CDC updated the cruise guidance again.  Vaccinated passengers don't need to be tested during embarkation and disembarkation; unless they are showing COVID symptoms.  

Hundreds of PCR tests per day have to be a significant expense for Viking.  I wonder if they'll drop them completely?  Ditto for KEF airport.

Just now, Twitchly said:

Mostly accurate. Some people who have had Covid have also had the vaccine (like my husband). So you can’t really add those two numbers together. 
 

But nearly 50% of all Americans have had at least one shot, and nearly 60% of all adults. (Source: New York Times) Even one shot from Pfizer or Moderna has been shown to have 84% effectiveness over time, as seen in Britain, where they gave everyone one shot initially in order to vaccinate as many people as possible as quickly as possible. 
 

And, as you say, add to that the number of unvaccinated people who have had Covid plus the people who had Covid and never got diagnosed, and we’re in pretty good shape in this country. Even if we don’t know those exact numbers at this point.

I did not combine recovered and vaccinated with the vaccinated only.  Nor were people who are half vaccinated counted.  CDC has all the numbers and graphs if you feel like going numb.

All numbers are a moving target, so nailing anything down as hard as fast is nigh on impossible.

I was merely trying to offer approximations to illustrate probabilities.

Nonetheless, the pandemic is dissipating quickly.  Having anxiety over the possibility of being quarantined, tested or otherwise inconvenienced is misplaced effort.  Life is short, sweat something else.

48 minutes ago, Peregrina651 said:

Thank you.  I was hoping that someone would start looking at the probabilities.  

 

We have a lot of data now.  What do the numbers say about false positives and false negatives for the testing? I haven't had a chance to ask professor Google.  

I'm seeing up to 4% for sloppy technicians, 2.5% seems average.  I hope Viking beats the average.

8 minutes ago, Twitchly said:

Great points! 

We should also look at probability.  As more people are infected and recover, or are vaccinated,

the number of available virus hosts diminish.  At the moment, CDC reports 127 million fully vaccinated and 15.7 million diagnosed, recovered and essentially immune.  It is also estimated well over 20 million were infected and didn't know it.  Some may even have natural immunity. 

Essentially, over half the US population is out of the host pool.

That leaves maybe 165 million available to feed the beast.  CDC reports there are about 47,000 active, diagnosed cases in the US this week.  Double that number for people who don't bother to get tested or are asymptomatic.  Round that number up to an even 100K.  That's 0.0006% of available hosts who are infected. 

Now if you are vaccinated, sit back and consider your odds of encountering someone who is infected and actively shedding virus in the first place.  Then factor in the odds your vaccination will fail you.

If you are worried about getting the bug, you'd better worry about where to spend all your lottery winnings too.

47 minutes ago, Twitchly said:

Thanks for posting this again, Mark. I really think a lot of peoples’ ongoing fears, even after having been vaccinated, have to do with a misunderstanding of this statistic. Once you’ve been vaccinated, you’re more likely to die in a car accident than get Covid. And if you do get Covid, your chances of dying from it are pretty much zero.

It's also important to know where the 95% statistic came from.  That percentage was derived from observing vaccinated health care workers who spent all day, every day for weeks around infected patients.  Their exposure was nearly continuous.

A deep dive into the world where the rest of us live and work shows something different.

A number of studies are showing 0.001% or lower vaccine "breakthrough" infections in the general population.  The stats indicate the COVID vaccines are about as good as those for polio and tetanus,

which is pretty remarkable.

1 minute ago, id4elizabeth said:

I spoke with a Viking rep this morning and she told me 928 passengers were aboard the Sky for our sailing on July 17.  That's not 75%, but FULL as in FULL capacity.  She said that early on there had been discussions about reduced capacity, but that they had decided that their Covid protocols were so excellent they could load up to the max.  I asked how that was going to work with social distancing in common areas like dining and she said they were extending restaurant hours to accommodate all passengers.   I guess that means some of us will be dining at 3:30 and others at 10:00.  Now, having been led astray by Viking reps recently on any number of issues, I'm not sure I believe what she told me, but there you are.

Sounds fully contrary to their published  materials.  There might be some displeased  passengers, but 

I guess I'm not worried.  We'll know for sure when the first cruise pax start posting here. 

2 minutes ago, Heartgrove said:

 

On one of the forum threads (I'm not sure which one and by who), the question was posed to the Viking rep and the response was 928 passengers. Capacity is 930 passengers on Viking Ocean ships.

 

I wish and hope it is 75% or so. One of the CDC requirements is to have space to quarantine passengers if need be. But these are not CDC regulated cruises.

I got the number second hand.  Don't know if it's good or not.  Our niece and her hubby will be joining us on the July 10 sailing.  When she called in to book, she claims the rep told her something to the effect of "Good thing you got through, there are only four or five cabins left out of 350".  There are 465 cabins on board, so 3/4 full.

16 minutes ago, Heartgrove said:

 

The current understanding from Viking is that the sold out cruises are at full capacity. That would be the original four cruises. I believe that question has not been asked regarding the other cruises.

 

 

Viking has stated in their written materials that the ships will sail with "reduced capacity".

What that means exactly is open to speculation.  The number of 75% has popped up repeatedly.

Fully booked probably means all 75% capacity spoken for, hence full capacity.

44 minutes ago, Heidi13 said:

Another consideration for resuming Alaska cruises, is that ships based in Seattle must transit Canadian Waters while transitting Juan de Fuca, bound for sea.

 

The US/Canada Border runs down the middle of Juan de Fuca, which also has an approved IMO Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS). The inbound lanes are in US waters, while the outbound lanes are in Canadian waters.

 

Since this TSS is IMO approved, Collision Regulation # 10 is applicable, which requires ships to navigate in the correct lane and to avoid the separation zone and inshore zone.

 

Therefore, any cruise ship departing Seattle must negotiate entry and transit through Canadian waters, as Canada currently bans cruise ships from operating in all Canadian Territorial Waters.

I'm sure Canada will ignore that provided no one attempts to land.  Canadians can be a little different, but they aren't petty.

Orion is fully booked for the only Alaska Viking cruise not yet cancelled:  North Pacific Passage, Vancouver to Tokyo.  I put down my money for this one, so I'm watching the situation like a hawk.

In order to comply with the CDC's most recent (and absurd) CSO, Viking would have to cancel a bunch of reservations to whittle down the number of passengers, then source a fortune in nearly unobtainable plexiglass for barriers they'd need to erect everywhere.  Not to mention all the other silliness mandated by the CDC...

I just don't see it happening.  Viking would be money ahead by issuing FCVs and just sitting it out.

Hope I'm wrong.

30 minutes ago, Valdosta traveler said:

This has probably been asked and answered, but I didn't see a answer.

Will Viking Provide a Covid test and documents for US passengers requiring a test prior to flying back to the US.

Thanks,

 

 

At present, yes.  If you post cruise in Iceland, you'll have to source another test while there.

Everything is subject to change.  Stay tuned.

20 hours ago, Valdosta traveler said:

This has probably been asked and answered, but I couldn't find the answer.

Regarding the Iceland cruises, Is Viking providing Covid tests and documentation for passengers returning to the US?

 

Thanks

At present, yes.  Last day of the cruise.  If you are staying in Iceland longer, you'll have to source another test while there.

Remember, all of this is subject to change.