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npcl

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  1. That is the issue, even the PCR tests have high rates of false negatives, depending upon how the sample was taken, the stage of the infection, etc. There are cases where people are showing severe symptoms test negative multiple times. One physician tested negative 4 times, using different types of test. He only got a positive test when they took a deep lung sample. One cannot assume that they are not contagious because they are not showing symptoms, and unfortunately even a negative PCR test can not be counted on. https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/journal-scans/2020/05/18/13/42/variation-in-false-negative-rate-of-reverse Based on this analysis, the false-negative rate for SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR is shockingly high, even at its lowest on day 8 post-exposure, or 3 days after symptoms. At its best, one out of five people suspected of COVID-19 will test negative. If clinical suspicion is high, infection should not be ruled out on the basis of RT-PCR alone
  2. You do know that when they are actually studing actual infection, it is normal to use an animal model, and not to conduct such tests on humans. Since this study was looking at actual virus transfer animals were used. Doing a study that intentionally gets humans ill is usually considered to be unethical and has very high hurdles for approval. There are plenty of other studies out there, including some I referenced. I included the one, because it was dealing with actual infection rates in an animal model, instead of looking at particle movement in mask tests.
  3. Yes it did involve hamsters because the study was to look at actual infection. Something that is usually not done with human volunteers. Do you even read the article you posted For example in the first article you quoted it goes on to talk about why masks should be used due to asymptomatic cases. which by the way you did not post the title. The article is dealing with in a hospital setting. From New England Journal of Medicine 5/21/20: Universal Masking in Hospitals in the Covid-19 Era More compelling is the possibility that wearing a mask may reduce the likelihood of transmission from asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic health care workers with Covid-19 to other providers and patients. This concern increases as Covid-19 becomes more widespread in the community. We face a constant risk that a health care worker with early infection may bring the virus into our facilities and transmit it to others. Transmission from people with asymptomatic infection has been well documented, although it is unclear to what extent such transmission contributes to the overall spread of infection. As far as the second you did not post the conclusion A Study on Infectivity of Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Carriers https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32405162/?fbclid=IwAR2q2NxWgFpKPLjqd-vKY7meWJ-pgGHb-CITNM8WoZ8lg8Ftc7dE1hN5iGU Conclusion: In summary, all the 455 contacts were excluded from SARS-CoV-2 infection and we conclude that the infectivity of some asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers might be weak. So they concluded that the infectivity of some asymptomatic carriers might be weak. Not that all of them are weak,. only that some of them MIGHT be. On the other hand I will raise you an editorial from NEJM Asymptomatic Transmission, the Achilles’ Heel of Current Strategies to Control Covid-19 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2009758 Arons et al. now report in the Journal an outbreak of Covid-19 in a skilled nursing facility in Washington State where a health care provider who was working while symptomatic tested positive for infection with SARS-CoV-2 on March 1, 2020. It is notable that 17 of 24 specimens (71%) from presymptomatic persons had viable virus by culture 1 to 6 days before the development of symptoms. Finally, the mortality from Covid-19 in this facility was high; of 57 residents who tested positive, 15 (26%) died. Ultimately, the rapid spread of Covid-19 across the United States and the globe, the clear evidence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from asymptomatic persons,5 and the eventual need to relax current social distancing practices argue for broadened SARS-CoV-2 testing to include asymptomatic persons in prioritized settings. These factors also support the case for the general public to use face masks10 when in crowded outdoor or indoor spaces. This unprecedented pandemic calls for unprecedented measures to achieve its ultimate defeat. Clinical characteristics of 24 asymptomatic infections with COVID-19 screened among close contacts in Nanjing, China https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11427-020-1661-4.pdf . Through epidemiological investigation, we observed a typical asymptomatic transmission to the cohabiting family members, which even caused severe COVID-19 pneumonia. Overall, the asymptomatic carriers identified from close contacts were prone to be mildly ill during hospitalization. However, the communicable period could be up to three weeks and the communicated patients could develop severe illness Rapid asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 during the incubation period demonstrating strong infectivity in a cluster of youngsters aged 16-23 years outside Wuhan and characteristics of young patients with COVID-19: A prospective contact-tracing study Delivery of infection from asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19 in a familial cluster https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220301740 Conclusions Our findings indicate that COVID-19 can be transmitted by asymptomatic carriers during the incubation period. There are only a few hundred studies showing transmission of COVID-19 while asymptomatic.
  4. Give it time. It has only been a week. Median time to develop symptoms 5 days, then decision to test, getting test results. A few cycles. Look again in 1-2 weeks from now for early indicators if there was an issue. The only reason the one case was in the news was because it confirmed that there was at least 1 infectious person at the event so other participants should keep a look out for symptoms.
  5. There are also quite a few that have not. Even if some strain have become less virulent, there are other strains still circulating. All depends upon what strains are active in the location you are at. So far the data is anecdotal and from one relatively small geographic area.
  6. OF course the article is about what Doctors think the cruise lines should do, not what the cruise lines will do.
  7. Unfortunately the article does not mention which company (s) has that practice. i have used medical on both Princess and HAL. Found the costs to be similar with urgent care facilities in the US. Have not encountered any signs of either company trying to load on services.
  8. The ironic thing is that the degree of uncertainty about people not wearing mask means that many people will stay home that otherwise would go out and spend. The uncertainly will delay the recovery.
  9. It is the velocity, more than the size of particles. Slow down the air flow coming out and the particles disperse prior to reaching and infecting others. Plenty of research papers, including video analysis, of both large and small particles exits. With masks far fewer reach another person standing a few feet away. Again the purpose is not the wearing it is to reduce spread from the potentially infected individual. With over 50% of those infected are asymptomatic the question becomes have you accidently killed someone today. You may be healthy, but other may not be. This video from a research institute in Singapore demonstrates how it helps https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLsGJHRGB_s A couple of other articles. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/19/coronavirus-wearing-a-mask-can-reduce-transmission-by-75percent-new-study-claims.html Wearing surgical masks in public could help slow COVID-19 pandemic's advance https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200403132345.htm The study was conducted at the University of Hong Kong as part of the dissertation research of the lead author, Dr. Nancy Leung, who, under the supervision of the co-senior authors Drs. Cowling and Milton, recruited 246 people with suspected respiratory viral infections. Milton's Gesundheit machine compared how much virus they exhaled with and without a surgical mask. "In 111 people infected by either coronavirus, influenza virus or rhinovirus, masks reduced detectable virus in respiratory droplets and aerosols for seasonal coronaviruses, and in respiratory droplets for influenza virus," Leung said. "In contrast, masks did not reduce the emission of rhinoviruses." Although the experiment took place before the current pandemic, COVID-19 and seasonal coronaviruses are closely related and may be of similar particle size. The report's other senior author, Professor Benjamin Cowling, division head of epidemiology and biostatistics, School of Public Health, HKUMed, and co-director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, said, "The ability of surgical masks to reduce seasonal coronavirus in respiratory droplets and aerosols implies that such masks can contribute to slowing the spread of (COVID-19) when worn by infected people." This is a very good video covering mask use and why they should be used. Very good summary in plan terms. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P27HRClMf2U
  10. Try opening with an incognito window. Works for me most of the time.
  11. Cancelled cruise on March 8 prior to final payment date. FCD's back in account March 9 Pre-paid gratuities returned to card March 10th. Normally would have expected refund of fare within a week or so. However, after several calls, Last being April 27 where they still said 60 days from date of cancellation. On May 6 I filed a dispute with CHASE Received paperwork from Case on May 7 Returned paperwork May 9 Received temporary credit May 16 June 1 received notification that dispute was resolved in my favor and credit is now permanent.
  12. The purpose of masks (except for medical professionals wearing and using PPE with strict protocols) is not to protect the person wearing one. It is to protect everyone else from a person that is either asymptomatic or has very minor symptoms and doesn't think that they are infected. The purpose of the mask is to disrupt air flow (slow it down) when that person is breathing, talking, coughing, sneezing or anything else that results in virus being expelled. The mask greatly reduces the distance that any particles and the associated virus will travel, reducing the chance for anyone around that person to be infected. With over 50% of the cases being asymptomatic a number of people infect others without knowing that they even have it. Do the following test. Blow on your hand. Now blow on your hand through a mask, or even a t-shirt. Notice the reduction in velocity. That is what the mask is for to reduce the area of spread. The people that are wearing masks are not wearing them for their own protection, it is for the protection of others around them.
  13. Actually Wyoming is now up to 16 deaths, 903 cases. Fortunately for the state low population density and not that much international travel prior to the shutdown. The areas that have gotten hit with the large outbreaks so far have been those with international travel hubs, and major population centers. Takes a bit longer for it to work itself out to more rural areas.
  14. Really will not see until about 3-4 weeks from now at best. That is because someone get infected 5-7 days before symptoms, a couple of days for test and test results, another 5-7 days before hospitalization on average, then 14 days median time to death. It is the hospitalization and death number that will indicated if opening up is working or not. Add on enough times for a few rounds of transmission. So if you open up today, you really will not see the impact for a month to 6 weeks.
  15. The most southern most in the US postal system are the post offices at the US research bases, McMurdo Station, Ross Island Antarctica and at Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station (with South pole station being the furthest south). The nice thing when I was last there is mail just required a standard first class stamp to go to/from the US. US Post Office's Southernmost Branch at Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station https://www.pri.org/stories/2013-02-06/us-post-offices-southernmost-branch-amundsen-scott-south-pole-station
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