CrazyTrain2

Hello, I've seen a few folks talking about last minute cruise deals. I've looked around but I must be looking in the wrong place(s). Do these deals really exist? Are they really that good? How far ahead are the deals posted? Do you need to be located near the port? We are finally empty nesters and can take advantage of more spontaneous travel.

Doubtful because the cruise ships have not changed since the early return to service. More likely, the virus has changed. It's just a beast for transmissibility. The difference between Delta -> Omicron BA.1 -> Omicron BA.2 -> Omicron BA.2.1.21 regarding transmissibility is profound. As viruses evolve, more transmissible variants tend to dominate less transmissible variants. So BA.2.1.21 will run its course across the globe and there is little anyone can do about it. Hold on to your hankies, it's gonna be a bumpy few months. When you look at the cruising environment compared to your everyday environment, the cruise is a concentrated set of opportunities to get infected. Three meals a day out and generally with other people, closed in rooms, activities, karaoke, laughing, singing, interacting with people all offer an opportunity for viral spread. Combined with a virus that has more subtle symptoms you have a daily cocktail special ripe for transmission. The general population has LITTLE immunity to catching BA.2.XXX. Omicron gets past your short term protections (exposure or vaccines) from Alpha and Delta. You are protected by the long term T-Cells from serious illness but not from catching Omicron. Hang in there cruisers, we'll get through this together.

For all intents and purposes, a cruise is a fixed cost. So it's all about maximizing yield for the voyage. It's a dark, but fascinating science - kind of like the formula to Coca Cola. Get the product managers at HQ drunk and they might divulge.

Keep in mind the protocols are made for the severity of the disease. Omicron BA.2 seems to not be the ventilator inducing beast for a vaccinated/boosted/exposed population. Testing/Wiping/cleaning/masks will not stop the spread of Omicron BA.2 especially the subvariants below BA.2. The OUTCOME of having a well vaccinated/well boosted ship population is MUCH more positive than the unvaccinated/unexposed. The conditions right now are significantly different than just a few months ago - BA.2 is much more virulent than even BA.1 (Old School Omicron). So far, while there has been widespread Covid onboard/ near debarkation and Cruising seems to be a highly correlated infection spread vector, it has not overwhelmed the medical staff onboard nor post cruising medical facilities. Collectively, the world is in for a few rocky months. Cruising will be a spread vector, but so will concerts, movie theaters, family gatherings, Memorial day get togethers, public transportation and any other place where people gather for extended periods of time and viral load is high. Personally, I'm trying to time WHEN I get BA.2 prior to my October cruise rather than try to avoid what I feel is the unavoidable. Cruising has been designated as a high risk activity for Covid by the CDC and It will be especially high risk until the general population has been exposed to Omicron BA.2 et al. No Cruise line or CDC guideline will protect you from this beast.

Yes, rebounds can happen with anti-virals but generally it's the better way to go for most people especially if you are trying to hit a timeline.

There are two outcome standards here: 1. I will not get serious illness (hospitalization) or die 2. I will not get the disease at all (raising the middle finger to the virus) Your body retains Standard 1 antibodies for long time (12+ months). And the Standard 1 antibodies seem to be pretty effective against all the current variants. If you encounter Omicron and you have antibodies either from exposure or vaccine - it is unlikely you will die or need hospitalization UNLESS you have a comorbidity. Getting Covid is no fun and as we age our chances of being pretty sick go up. I'll work on an aging vaccine next. Your body sheds Standard 2 Covid antibodies within 6 months - for the virus the vaccine/exposure was designed. The current vaccines are Alpha based and kinda effective against Omicron but not the 95% banging effectiveness they had against Alpha. If you received a vaccine today it will achieve maximum protection within 2 weeks and then slowly fade over the next 6 months. After about 4 months, you should act like you are at normal risk of getting Covid. But your Standard 1 antibodies will still protect you from exiting the Lido deck in a box. Covid in the US right now is nearly 100% Omicron - BA2 or BA2.121 (your local area may vary). Any exposure after 4/15 was probably Omicron and exposure after 5/1 was Omicron. The vaccines and most people's exposure before 3/15/22 were based on Alpha (Vaccines) and Delta (Exposure) variants. Keep in mind Omicron is generally presenting with significantly less severe symptoms than Alpha or Delta, but you can still feel really bad. We are not expecting any Omicron variant vaccines to be available until "Fall" from Moderna or Pfizer. So effectively, we need to just deal with it until the general population's immunity to Omicron rises. For the next few months, if you board a cruise ship, you should expect to get Omicron symptoms either onboard or shortly after returning home. Not everyone will get it, but you should plan like it is a real possibility. That sounds harsh, but Omicron is a beast for transmissibility. Cruising is high risk for Omicron. I do not believe there is any protocol that can fully protect the general population from Omicron. Cruising comes down to a personal decision.

I'd load up your devices ahead of time and not rely on streaming. If you think of the entire ship's operations and all the passengers using a single satellite uplink you'll understand why the speeds are so slow and latency so high. You're not in Kansas anymore Toto.

Over 90% of the fleet is reporting Orange Status to CDC today. There is no red status since it means self reporting and nobody will self report "my medical staff are overrun". Omicron BA.2.XXX is punching a big hole right through the safety and testing protocols. I too am booked in the fall and I'm watching carefully how this wave progresses. I'm not holding out hope that the Omicron variant vaccine will be available in time for our cruise in late October. So my best option for a non-interrupted, quarantine free cruise is to be exposed to Omicron in August/September. It's a horrible plan but given the virility and transmissibility of BA.2 it could be inevitable.

It's cheaper (and better quality medical attention) to bring along your own EMT stocked with meds and IVs to keep the party going all night.

The NCL website gets 5/5 stars for pictures. 2 stars for functionality. I can only hope the website goes the other way and slips a decimal or two to the left.

So Seinfeld, Your good at MAKING the reservation. You are just not good at KEEPING the reservation. Yes, I will take the insurance 'cause I'm gonna beat the crap out of this car.

I don't want to go into too much about the specifics of the protocols - lest I might get banned from CC. But clearly, the current protocol is not working for Omicron BA2 or BA2.121. There is almost no Alpha or Delta in the wild right now in the United States - Omicron is king. BA2 is a beast regarding virality and transmissibility. I may be going out on a limb here but I think everyone will get BA2 or a subvariant - It's a matter of time until one contracts it. The issue remains - the institutional reaction to being positive is disproportionate to the risk for Vaxxed/Exposed healthy individuals. The protocols were put in place not to protect people per se, but rather the healthcare system. The protocols were put in place for a virus with much higher hospitalization and death rates (Alpha and Delta) combines with a population with little protection. Since then our collective immunities have been hardened through either Vaccines or Exposure and the virus has evolved. While Omicron is nothing to sneeze at (pun intended) it is not the ventilator inducing killer that its previous generations were. AS LONG AS YOU ARE VAXXED AND BOOSTED. I'm afraid that BA2 will just have to run it's course through the world and there is little ANY protocols in the civilian population can do about it. I'm not suggesting you get it over with but rather plan for the institutional overreaction for a positive test.

Sweet, Now hold your breath for the next couple of days. One positive note is that her antibody levels will be extremely high for the whole trip. Enjoy!! - We are hoping to be there in late October - Covid permitting.

I asked for general numbers not names, any PII or PHI. The raw numbers should not be exempt. I can see where the denominator of total passengers onboard could be considered a trade secret. If it is then the raw numbers of how many passengers will be interesting but not as helpful as percent positive. We'll see how it plays out and how long the CDC takes to respond. I try to be optimistic when dealing with these agencies.

I have made a Freedom of Information request to the CDC for the actual ship positivity numbers. When I get the information back I will post it. I may need some help getting information on Cruise length from the CC collective - Cruise length I think significantly affects the positivity rates in addition to port of Embarkation. I think all of us deserve the real information to make informed decisions about whether to sail or not and what precautions we need to take while on board.

It's unlikely you will see a ship in Red. It would require the medical staff reporting an overrun condition.

Currently, 74 of 85 ships of the US Landing fleet reporting to the CDC are ORANGE Status. The vast majority of the Not Orange status ships are sailing "Crew Only" with no passengers. https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/cruise-ship-color-status.html The CDC guidelines were made with an understanding of Covid Alpha B,D and Delta variants. Omicron is a different beast from a virility and transmissibility standpoint. While Omicron symptoms are less severe in most cases, this variant is slicing through CDC Cruising guidelines like a hot knife on a buttered roll. While the onboard caseload is below the Red threshold, clearly, it is not taking into account passenger positivity 3-4 days from Debarkation. I have about 5 weeks before I need to make final payment for an October sailing. If this situation remains, I am going to make other arrangements outside of the cruising industry.

I do not fear the Covid virus per se. I fear being locked up in my room on board, prevented from boarding a flight home or quarantined in a foreign nation at the whim of a government bureaucrat. That's not a vacation to me - there are alternative vacation options that pose less risk to my life interruptus. I do not have a current Rho factor for Omicron, but it is clearly spreading fast and wide. The cruise environment regardless of CDC compliance measures seems to exacerbate the problem. I suspect it is air quality/recirculation on the ship combined with repeated exposures. The CDC/FDA need to fast track the Omicron variant second generation vaccines or simply throw up their hands and let Omicron run its course given its lower mortality/hospitalization rate. So its not the virus, its the government/industry reaction to the virus.

It will be interesting to see if there is a correlation between cruise length and reported covid cases. Many post Cruise Covid cases do NOT get reported since the light symptoms in the early stages go right off the ship, into transfer buses and onto planes home. Covid may have been contracted on board, but it is not reported as ship board Covid due to gestation period and initial light symptoms. Longer cruises cannot hide their cases as well as shorter cruises. Keep in mind the Omicron variant is more transmissible than Delta or Alpha B,G. As viruses evolve, more transmissible variants tend to dominate over time. I would walk on board with a script for a Covid anti-viral and get a booster 3 weeks ahead of sailing to maximize antibodies. With 76% of the fleet reporting ORANGE, there is a problem that is not being addressed.

I just found the CDC info link for all cruise ships and Covid Reporting..... https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/cruise-ship-color-status.html Color Status Definitions Cruise Ship Color Status Key Green No reported cases of COVID-19 or COVID-19-like illness (CLI). Yellow^ Reported cases of COVID-19 are below the threshold for CDC investigation. Orange^ Reported cases of COVID-19 have met the threshold for CDC investigation. Red† Reported cases of COVID-19 are at or above the threshold for CDC investigation. Additional public health measures are in place. Gray Opted out of CDC’s COVID-19 Program for Cruise Ships. CDC has not reviewed or confirmed the cruise ship’s health and safety protocols. ^ The “Orange” and “Yellow” ship colors were reversed for the COVID-19 program to go in a more logical color order. † If CDC is considering assigning a cruise ship “Red” status, CDC may require ships to do one or more of the following: Test all passengers mid-voyage, and/or prior to the end of the voyage, regardless of the passengers’ vaccination status; Increase routine screening testing of crew; Require mask use by all passengers and crew indoors and crowded outdoor areas; Send written notification to passengers on the current, previous, and subsequent voyages informing them of the COVID-19 conditions and measures being taken to reduce transmission on board; Offer a full refund for the cruise to any passenger who decides not to sail on the subsequent voyage; and Submit specimens for genetic sequencing.

Moderna is looking to have a Omicron variant (multi-variant) booster available in the "fall". I expect it will be as effective as the first generation vaccine against the Alpha version B,G subvariants. If you are immunosuppressed I would take Paxlovid if you can - at the first sign of trouble, begin taking it. Check with your Oncologist. The truth is that people may be reluctant to report symptoms on board. Getting quarantined to the penalty box floor when you have mild symtoms or you are not sure about your status happens a LOT more than people will say. Nobody wants to miss out on their vacation. Inconsiderate and dangerous yes, but it happens a lot. I am expecting to take with me a Paxlovid course for all my travelers (oral Covid anti-virals). Not sure if they have it available on the ship. Best wishes and I am actively watching how the summer plays out before boarding in October.

Yes, Both Pfizer and Modera are formulating a multi-variant second generation booster. Moderna's will be ready in the "fall". I won't get into the science of it, but mRNA vaccines are really targeting Cancer not a virus "de jour". Before Covid Moderna was doing cancer research. mRNA can be reprogrammed to have the body manufacture a different neutralizing anti-body fairly easily. Covid vaccines validated the mRNA platform for a whole host of diseases. The multi-variant should be in the 90%+ effectiveness for all Covid strains identified during formulation. It may even include a flu vaccine (TBD). If there is anything good coming out of Covid, it may be a path to effective Cancer vaccines.

Take the Oral anti-virals (Paxlovid). Tell your healthcare provider to script them up for you and take them immediately upon any symptoms. You will go Covid negative much sooner.

I still have no idea why these cards are used as proof of vaccination. The cards are supposed to be used as a reminder card not an actual official government document. Your actual vaccine records are kept at the State level. Here in New Mexico, you can easily download and print your vax records. But each state is VERY different and at least the card provide a similar look and feel across the nation. Personally, I have a bit of a quandary. I am vaxed and boosted but I want to wait until we have Omicron variant booster to get my 4th shot. Sailing in October, so LET'S GO Moderna and Pfizer and get those second generation vaccines out. I am very interested in the cruise reports to see how Covid is behaving or not behaving onboard.

Is it better to take the NCL transfer or book your own?? $75/pp is pretty steep. We have 6 travelers in the party. We will also be coming in early and visiting prior to embarkation. What is wait like for the NCL transportation on disembarking versus self directed? Uber? Lyft? Cab?