tocruiseguy

With new, possibly vaccine resistant , variants arising I wouldn't expect international cruising to return for quite a while.  The world needs to be vaccinated, not just the western world, or variants will continue to develop and world cruising likely won't return until then.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/south-africa-suspends-astrazeneca-vaccine-drive-1.5299360

3 hours ago, phoenix_dream said:

Easy to get upset at so many things these days🙂.  I honestly don't think its an oversight though.  If I take all my emotions out of the picture, as well as what seems fair or not, and look only at what will get us to herd immunity the fastest, then one could argue that it makes logical sense for healthy, procedure following seniors to be last.  If most of us are already doing what is expected by wearing masks, distancing, and not hanging out in bars and so on, then we are not the ones spreading the virus.  We also are not essential to the economy in the sense of keeping people employed, as most (I know not all) are retired.  And as retirees, even if we don't like being stuck in our houses we have the ability to do that without losing our livelihoods. 

 

We are certainly more at risk of death or complications if we do get sick, but I would hazard an educated guess that the vast majority of senior deaths are those in nursing homes and other senior living facilities.  So as much as I would hate the fact of being last, and as much as I resent the fact that killers, rapists, and child molesters may get priority over me,  I think that could very well happen.

 At least in Canada in provinces the majority of deaths were in Long Term Care facilities. I would guess health care workers and then police/fire department would be first on the list.  I guess the bad thing with that, if the vaccine turns us into zombies because they rushed it, we would lose the most important first.....😃

I also suspect some companies will try to acquire doses for their employees so they can ramp up.  I agree (not a senior yet btw) that those who are employed and have to take public transit to work, for example, should get priority over a healthy senior.   We need to get our downtowns working again.  Also, if we want to relate this to cruising, how long will it take for cruise lines to get all their employees vaccinated, most don't live in North America?  I would guess the cruise industry will on the shelf longer than other tourism industries.

PS When you compare Canada, US and European rates of infection/deaths to places like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam etc. I wonder how they get it so right and we keep getting it so wrong?  

39 minutes ago, Paulchili said:

I wonder if it beats Paris, TX?

 Dunno, but it sure is a pale comparison to the "real" Paris.  Couldn't find their version of the Louvre either...😄.  

1 hour ago, ORV said:

A year ago we were in Paris, not only do I miss sailing I miss traveling. 

Agree, I am on a Staycation, which when you were already working from home sucks even more (I know, a first world problem).

We did however make it to Paris......Ontario...... 

5 hours ago, Paulchili said:

It will take more than that considering all the antivaxers out there. You have to keep them off the ship.

You don't have to take the vaccine if you don't want to but then you don't get to cruise either.

Can't believe what a big deal some people make of the need to wear masks - such a simple and logical thing to do.

I agree, I don't get it.  You have to wonder would these same people have objected as vigorously to wearing a seat belt in a car or helmet while riding a motorcycle, do they not buckle up in turbulence while flying??   Wearing a mask while in a store or other indoor place seems like a small price to pay for keeping each other safe because thats the primary purpose of a mask, keeping others safe from the mask wearer.  

On 7/16/2020 at 2:02 PM, Petoonya said:

 French Polynesia as many of you know has introduced new measures for travel and cruising which are certain to evolve as time goes on and bugs worked out. Air Tahiti Nui started flying LAX-PPT yesterday. An affidavit from a physician, hospital or clinic attesting to negative COVID and dated within 3 days before the flight now needs to be presented before boarding flights. Then all passengers will be given a second 4 day post flight and self administered saliva COVID test on arrival. Hotels and cruise lines will be responsible for returning specimens to testing sites after 4 days. Anyone testing positive will be transported to a hospital and quarantined. Masks will need to be worn everywhere.

 

Yikes if you test positive on either test.

 

But it's a first step, and has possibilities for protecting all travelers as well as French Polynesians. It'll either work, be modified, or fail. Lots of questions already about the positives and negatives. Since PG sets sail at the end of this month we'll have a report on how efficiently it works. Take more time to see if COVID spread is slowed. Wind Spirit sails early Sept. Two bar areas on Wind Spirit are tiny and already almost entirely table service.

 

Not saying this to debate anyone as to the merits or flaws- just passing on info from FP health authorities.

 

This would clearly help, in fact a quick test would probably be one of the best ways to control the virus and stomp it out someday.  However, not sure I want to spend all that money and get turned back at the gate because I had unknowingly contract Covid a day or two before.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-australian-researchers-invent-20-minute-coronavirus-blood-test-2/

10 hours ago, Redtravel said:

Look around.  There are people who just don't comply.  They won't wear masks or distance.  They get angry when they are excluded from stores because they won't wear a face mask.  Even those that do, often wear it incorrectly.  The top of the head isn't protected anyone. 

 

EU nationals were banned from the US ports on March 13. I was cruising on Sirena when they quickly made a "technical stop" in Antiqua on March 14th to disembark all EU nationals.  They flew to LHR. They were not allowed back into Miami.  The United States banned EU nationals and now you are surprised that the EU doesn't want Americans in Europe.  

We don't want Americans in Canada either (nothing personal), we are looking at your infection rates with concern, ours have dropped substantially and are still dropping.

22 hours ago, Petoonya said:

Agree they're protecting their populations. If one is really desperate to see the EU there's always wearing a mask and social distancing at Epcot Center or Venice in Las Vegas later this summer. 😉

No offence I've been to Epcot, the people who go there and actually think it is like going to Europe are probably the ones who are too ignorant or stubborn to wear a mask.  😃

1 hour ago, yorky said:

Ha ha, because everyone on a flight let’s the crew know they are ill as they board the aircraft. I’m pretty sure I’ve picked up viruses at airports and on long haul flights that became apparent days later.

Same here, I fly (flew?) a lot for business and invariably I would get sick a few days after flying at least a couple of times a year.  Problem for the cruise industry is the airline industry's problems are tacked on.  For the cruise industry to recover, people will need to feel comfortable flying again as well. 

34 minutes ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

 Do you really think things are any better behind the kitchen doors in dining rooms?  Likely much worse.  How do you know that "he infected everything he touched with his dirty hands?"  We have no idea where yours have been before you walk into an MDR.  

Actually I trust the kitchens of cruise ships much more than my local restaurant.  They know that they have to practice good hygiene in the ship's galleys or they could have a wide spread infection impacting hundreds or thousands of passengers.  I trust the employees much more than my fellow passengers.  

2 hours ago, Denny01 said:

Don’t need the specialties except for a special time.....we find the MDR is just fine. 

 

Now to actually respond to the subject.....picture no buffet and 2000+ going to the MDR for breakfast prior to tours......going to lunch every day. Not an option to close them. Other options that were mentioned? Servers spooning it all out at each station - fine. Good ideas.

 

As to some guy walking out of a booth without washing, you could give the a yell. “Hey guy, wash up!”. But make sure the guy didn’t step out of the booth with its own basin....oops!

 

Den

Yeah, I want to get in a fight with a stranger in a public washroom, (pretty sure I could have taken him...😄 )but who wants to get into a tussle with a stranger with you know what on his hands.  We will always have slobs, nothing will change that.  

PS when I said no buffets I meant no more self serve, I get the logistics.  

2 hours ago, Decpl said:

That's and issue everywhere, people just have no idea on manners or hygiene . I once witnessed a cruiser tasting food with the serving spoons, called supervisor over and told him and pointed out lady and all he did was remove the dishes that I saw her touch.Never went and confronted her.

Back when Celebrity had the big brunch on the last sea day, a woman was at the chocolate fondu, took a bite out of here fruit skewer and double dipped it back into the fondu....I saw it with my own eyes...gross.  No wonder I border on germophobia....

I always hated buffets on the ships, especially the time I was washing my hands in the washroom right outside the Oceanview cafe and a guy walked right out of the stall past the sinks.  Witnessed him spooning food on his plate, infected everything he touched with his dirty hands.  When cruising starts up again the buffets need to be removed permanently.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/japanese-experiment-showcases-how-quickly-viruses-can-spread-at-buffets

11 hours ago, nztyke said:

 

it would be very welcome if we could get our deposit back but if we cancel before they officially cancel the cruise I can’t see it.

The cruise may go forward but it will be doing so without us, up the Amazon to Manaos , one the Covid-19 hotspots does not appeal. I can’t see anyone in their right mind, especially considering the demographic of cruisers, travelling unless they have been vaccinated and that’s a long way off. 

We are in NZ and there is no way that cruise ships will be allowed in here, or Australia for that matter, this year and probably most of next year and I’m sure a lot of other destination countries will be of like  mind. There may be scope for some of the cruise lines to run  ‘party cruises’ , all sea days. 

 

It will be interesting to see how it all pans out but whatever happens it’s going to be a lot different, perhaps not a bad thing as cruise ships were becoming a bit of a blight in many places, I don’t think we will miss them a lot in NZ. 

 

Regardless how the cruise lines restructure financially everything is dependant on customers returning and as you state countries actually allowing cruise ships to dock.  You won't get the former without the latter.  I have been reading a lot of articles on the cruise industry since Covid and there seems to be a substantial percentage of the population that loathe the industry for various reasons (pollution, crew member wages, avoiding taxation, etc).  The more I read the more I believe that the industry that appears post Covid will be substantially different and be significantly smaller than it currently is.  I have never personally liked the fact that ships were getting bigger and bigger.   Other changes, for example Celebrity's newest ship class greatly expanding the sq footage for suite customers at the expense of everyone else is another negative industry trend.

Covid has really exposed the fundamental problems with the industry.  There is a serious reckoning coming and I have come to the conclusion that to place any of your money at risk for even a nominal deposit does not make any sense at this time.  

47 minutes ago, Hoopster95 said:

Another thought just crossed my mind....

Seeing the USA divisive on "getting back to normal" vs. exercising a continued social distancing, if there's a huge spike in C19 deaths in the US over the next couple of months, I wonder how many countries, including the Caribbean islands, will look at the USA as a major problem and not allow any Americans into their ports or airports?

 

Unfortunately, I can see the political game of "opening up early" to save the economy as having a chance of killing the cruise lines in itself.

Agree with you, the small Caribbean countries will not allow cruise ships to dock if there is anyone on a cruise ship with even a runny nose.  I don't blame them.  BTW an unnecessary resurgence from opening up too early will cause substantial grief in much more than just the cruise line industry.  

19 minutes ago, kiawahdon said:

For a prior O cruiser who is looking at booking again, today’s news really put cold water on booking until the dust settles. Among the concerns any knowledgeable traveler or travel agent would have consider include:

1. If my cruise goes forward, what can I expect on the ship? Will the cash issues of O negatively impact the passengers’ experience with respect to service, food, excursions, etc?

2. If I cancel the cruise under O’s Covid-19 liberal cancelation policy for sailings before 9/30, will my FCC be worth anything given  O’s possible bankruptcy? What is my risk of being an unsecured creditor ultimately getting nothing in a multi-year bankruptcy?

 

There are other legitimate concerns for anyone considering booking, but the above 2 will certainly slow new bookings to a crawl Even before one factors in the impact of Covid-19.

Good points.    The fact they state that they have 12 months of liquidity is a positive, from NCL  “This strengthens the company’s financial position and ensures it is well positioned to withstand well over 12 months of voyage suspensions in a potential downside scenario.”  If they have liquidity for 12 months that is a good thing.

However as you state, consumer confidence in booking future cruises and providing deposits is going to be a problem until they start sailing again.  Maybe they need to go to a no deposit or very low deposit business model for a while.  Also, this kind of news isn't just going to impact NCL it will impact the outlook on the entire industry.  

It surprises me that the US government isn't assisting cruise lines even just for the number of head office positions that they have in the US.  NCL's headquarters are in Miami.  

39 minutes ago, TrulyBlonde said:

You may want to hedge your bets and load up too. Possibly make more money after a restructuring and then can take more cruises. 😉

Common shareholders would suffer a substantial devaluation in their investment under a restructure, there are less risky investments out there.  

One of the biggest issues here will be consumer confidence in the company, who is going to book a cruise with NCL now?  I guess those who don't follow the news will still do so.  This is sort of like what happened to the domestic car manufacturers (GM and Chrysler) they did go bankrupt in the US and sales dropped precipitously but obviously recovered.  The difference is they received substantial support from the US and Canadian governments.  NCL will be hard pressed to survive without some direct government support.  

5 hours ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

What's with the "fake news" title? Read the articles!

No one is "going out of business" (particularly with the first of many NCLH restructuring investments by private equity weighing in at $400 million). 

Will there be changes? Of course. Will Oceania disappear? No - Of all the NCLH lines, it has the most flexible size, repeat passenger base and industry positioning to absorb ship jumpers from NCL and Regent.

You must get your non fake news from Twitter.  Geez, get a grip, this is reality.

2 hours ago, RJB said:

Refunds should be higher on the list.   But are the yards even open to do upgrades? 

Part of the problem cruise passengers will face is they will likely be sailing on ships that should have been refurbished but due to the economic calamity caused by the virus the cruise lines simply don't have the capital to spend in the near term.  Airlines will defer purchases of new planes as well, some of the damage to business travel with people realizing they can do a lot remotely will be permanent.  This will impact airfares as us business travellers, tend to book late and pay more, really subsidize vacation travellers who book months in advance.   So getting to the cruise ship will cost more at least in the medium term.  

Every way you slice it the tourism industry is in for a rough ride.  

26 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

We will never” completely “ stamp out the virus any more than we’ve stamped out the flu, measles, or chicken pox. As with the flu, even the vaccine may not be 100% effective. This will be dependent upon travelers, based upon their own risk reward analysis, decide to return to cruising. Some individuals, with high vulnerabilities, may never return to cruising , or even air travel, again. Others are busting as the seams to get back to traveling ASAP.

 

The issue will become, for the cruise lines, how do they lure their targeted demographics back to their ships and how much does it cost to do so.

 

On this particular board, we are fairly well split into two camps : Cruisers and Travelers. The cruisers overall don’t care where they’re going, they just want to be floating around on a ship , enjoying the ship. Travelers cruise primarily to get to specific locations with more ease than land travel options. I personally foresee Cruisers being diverted longer term from cruise ships more so than travelers. Time will tell. 

Good points.  Guess we are in the traveler camp, we did a land tour of Vietnam last fall (feels like a decade ago now...) which was favourite vacation to date.  We really like cruising too, but find that now that we cruise without our kids (not on school holidays), the cruises we go on lately cater to a much older demographic, especially the entertainment.  Although we will endure it for the right itinerary.  

Bottom line, there is much uncertainty in the tourism industry right now so I don't think anyone can predict how quickly we will get our of this.  

20 hours ago, pinotlover said:

I truly believe the Bloomberg article was generically correct. “ Those companies, outside of care, catering to the Elderly will be the last to recover. If they survive to recover!” 
 

Disney, Carnival, etc. have an entirely different targeted clientele than some other lines. If you’re a cruise line, waiting on customers whose median age exceeds 75 to resume sailing, your in more trouble than a line with a median age of 40. Fairly simple, actually.

2 hours ago, commodore2010 said:

 

Too early to tell what, if any, consolidation would occur in this industry.  Each major cruise line has 8-12 months of cash burn to sustain themselves as the picture of recovery become clearer.  

Not sure about consolidation, for some time period there will be excess capacity in the industry so not sure a bigger cruise line is what would make sense.  I would guess older ships would get decommissioned rather than refurbished.  With liquidity an issue, you will also see longer periods before a ship is refurbished.  This will all be dependant on whether or not we completely stamp out the virus.  

27 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

I truly believe the Bloomberg article was generically correct. “ Those companies, outside of care, catering to the Elderly will be the last to recover. If they survive to recover!” 
 

Disney, Carnival, etc. have an entirely different targeted clientele than some other lines. If you’re a cruise line, waiting on customers whose median age exceeds 75 to resume sailing, your in more trouble than a line with a median age of 40. Fairly simple, actually.

Yes, its a little surreal to me that anyone would even risk their deposit money at this point.  The cruise, airline and general tourism industries resurgence is more closely tied to a cure/vaccine for COVID than all others.  Who wants to get on a plane to go somewhere right now?   How many of us have been on planes where someone was coughing up a lung, sneezing, sniffling, remember how that made you feel?  Imagine how that would make you feel now?  Most of us need to fly to get to our cruise.  Some of the lines, specifically Princess will be suffering class action lawsuits over their handling of the outbreaks on the ships.  Not normally something that would take down a cruise company but things are anything but normal right now.  

6 hours ago, Classiccruiser777 said:

“Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. issued a business update on April 27 detailing its efforts to successfully ride out the global COVID-19 pandemic, including refinancing debt and reducing operating and capital expenses. The company said it expects to report a net loss for the first quarter and for the year.”

More here: https://www.travelpulse.com/news/cruise/nclh-takes-measures-to-mitigate-business-impacts-from-covid-19.html?fbclid=IwAR0sofgGk6TlTgxhWyHy2TnwVVS1268YfRZvAmHfuNo0HJJCEPZO4-RVqTg#.XqhOakjkFgI.facebook

 

 

This quote in the article struck me...."Norwegian continues to receive new customer deposits and final payments on future bookings for 2020, 2021 and 2022."

Not sure how much they are receiving in final payments but seems to me anyone making a final payment could be putting themselves in place as an unsecured creditor if NCL doesn't make it through this.  Clearly the cruise industry, even in a best case scenario, won't return to some sort of normalcy until well into 2021.  Firstly people are going to have to get comfortable getting on a plane, which will take a while itself. 

10 hours ago, Hawaiidan said:

Reality  says no......Disney is not going to even reopen till December !    October may be  shut out I looked at t at cruise  but weather way too cold for 1/2 of it... and good chance of show in Maine and Mass.   Good luck....  

 I am not sure Disney is closed until December but I do agree its unlikely cruising will start up again this year.  Plus the risk you are taking, one person on your ship gets a cough or fever and the cruise is done, no port will allow the ship to dock.  This will be an issue until a vaccine is universally available.  More importantly, it is very likely there will be receivership/bankruptcy in the industry.  These ships are meant to be producing income continuously, look how quickly "refurbishments" happen, the cruise companies simply cannot afford to keep their ships idle.  The US government has refused to help the cruise companies as they are mostly Panamanian registered companies and they all pay little income tax.  They also get to avoid employment standards due to their registrations.  This industry was already due for a shakeup. The covid virus will be an earthquake.  

14 hours ago, LHT28 said:

 TTC or GO  train ??

plane  getting to  vacation destination

Nursing home in the GTA

 When I am on the GO train, I am on it for 30 minutes and now will have to wear a mask.  Agree, flying is problematic.  The tragedy befalling nursing homes across the world is awful.   

Maybe the medical state of the average cruise passenger is better than those in a nursing home but since we have cruised without our children from what we have experienced the average age of a cruise ship doesn't seem much younger.  I have heard of some cruises with average ages approaching 80.  In our 50's we were part of the youngest demographic on a couple of our cruises.  We have been on two cruises with "dialysis at sea" signs (Celebrity).  Anyone that old (and I really hope to get there someday) is much more vulnerable to any contagion.