madmacs

The UK government is today announcing details of their quarantine programme for entry into the UK. It will apparently start on June 1st and anyone entering the UK by plane, ship or I presume Eurostar (unless from Ireland) will have to self isolate in an approved dwelling or government agreed hotel for 14 days. This will be subject to review every three weeks. Whilst this is operating I can't see anyone flying in for cruises from Southampton and Brits like me would have to be in quarantine at home for 14 days. As we are having lockdown restrictions slowly reduced I, for one, would not want to go back into isolation for 14 days after my cruise. Not sure if folks flying straight out to the USA etc would have to quarantine for another 14 days. Whilst this is happening in the UK I think you can forget about cruises from Southampton or any other UK port.

Just seen Celebrity UK are offering deals on a cruise out of Southampton on June 13th 2020. This has got to be nuts. You have to be incredibly optimistic if you think this cruise will run. Silhouette is in the Caribbean with a skeleton crew, very few ways to fly in a crew. The US CDC is currently banning use of US ports until late July (but could change). The UK government is planning to introduce 14 day quarantine rules, probably in early June, and other cruise lines have cancelled the European season. Come on Celebrity a bit of honesty please. I think my cruise in October is at best 50/50 but in June!

We are advised not to travel abroad from the UK but at the moment there are no travel restrictions in theory coming in, but hardly any flights. The UK government has announced that from an unspecified date (predicted to be 1 June) anyone arriving in the country (apart from Ireland and possibly France) will have to be in quarantine for 14 days in a private house or government approved hotel (there will not be too many we gather). There are a few exceptions, i.e. lorry drivers but not holiday makers for certain.

This applies to folks coming in by air, sea or through the Channel Tunnel. In my view it will scupper any thoughts of cruising whilst in operation. Many of the UK based airlines are not happy as they will effectively be closed down whilst the quarantine is in operation.

3 hours ago, yorky said:

https://www.express.co.uk/travel/articles/1280939/ryanair-flights-return-july-holidays-coronavirus-lockdown-uk-news-latest

Hopeful but won't get many customers if quarantine rules are still in place in July. 

In the UK the government is introducing 14 days quarantines. So for US visitors aiming to cruise it looks as though they would have to spend 14 days in quarantine in a house before going on a cruise, and for UK customers we would have to be in quarantine for 14 days on return from a cruise. I can't see any cruises from Southampton whilst this is running. Suspect Celebrity will follow Princess and cancel the summer season at least from Southampton. Maybe P&O which is largely UK customers will be able to run from August/ September - we will see,

I am booked on Silhouette in October -not hopeful

The right thing to do if late but cruises will not happen while this is in force. Folks, flying in, and  going on cruises from Southampton would presumably have to go into quarantine for two weeks before going on the cruise, and maybe they and Brits would have to be in quarantine for two weeks after a cruise. We will know more in the next couple of days.

As said elsewhere the views of experts in the UK are mixed on wearing masks, with the majority view being that they will not reduce infections. I have no inherent objection to wearing one on public transport, but would not be keen on wearing one on a cruise for two weeks, cruises are a discretionary expenditure and would be one thing putting me off cruising.

I never thought I would agree with Donald Trump on anything but veer more towards his views on this issue.

1 hour ago, HxFx said:

It appears you are correct. Here is an ongoing CC article I check regularly for updates to ports:

https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5097/

 

Very confusing. It says some European ports are open but later on points out that basically the EU plus other countries are closed. It is reported that EU tourism ministers are meeting (virtually) to see how they can open up for tourists in July . August, yet the Spanish government is reported as saying no tourists this year. We will have to wait and see,

I agree about the financial position of cruise lines - it is all about cash at the moment, Fire sales of shares like Carnival,  deferring debt payments, trying to persuade customers to take FCCs. Their first aim is survival.

As to cruises, I can only speak from a European perspective, or perhaps now British. It seems likely that most countries will restrict entrance for months to come. It is reported that the UK government will effectively be seeking to quarantine arrivals for fourteen days. so if Brits cruised we would be locked away for fourteen days on our return, having had five weeks of that so far it is not an appealing prospect. Italy and Spain are reputedly closing their tourist industries this year.

If the above happens then there will be no European cruise season, so it may be that the cruise lines will seek to generate cash by short Caribbean cruises as has been suggested. They need to generate cash however they can,

I am from the UK and Europe has been hit hard. Some countries are starting to ease restrictions, but I have read that opening up countries to tourists is low down the list. Spain is the most popular holiday destination for Brits (our booked cruise is due to visit Spanish ports) but the Spanish government is warning there may not be a tourist season this year. I suspect the "European cruise season" won't happen. I have no problem with that as health comes first, but for Spain it will be devastating for their economy. Governments face incredibly difficult decisions. It is where their leaders are fully tested.

Up until a couple of days ago the cases and deaths were numbers to me, but a good friend died earlier this week, which brings it home!

I understand that Carnival have enough cash to last the year out, and RCCL and NCL maybe a bit less. This clearly raises big concerns - if the cruise lines can't get back this year. I know they have assets like large ships, but if no-ne is cruising they become liabilities. I was predicting the lines had a 75% chance of surviving, if there are no cruises this year it will become less than 50/50 in my opinion. My experience was in business planning albeit in energy rather than cruising.

The UK Chief Medical Officer has today said that social distancing rules will be with us all year, in all probability. We are due to cruise in October so can cruise lines operate with social distancing guidelines. In the UK that means being two metres apart. So in MDRs that would mean, I guess, tables for families only, Much less people in buffets and the theatre, restrictions on numbers by and in pools, bars etc. I presume that this would mean restrictions on numbers on ships - would it be commercially viable to have say half full ships, presumably better than having ships not running. Very difficult decisions ahead for cruise line MDs and senior management. I have read that Carnival can afford not to operate for the rest of the year and survive. We will have to wait and see,

Of course of more importance is that we try to minimise loss of life and protect our economies as best we can - challenges for our governments. 

22 hours ago, laslomas said:

I know what I would like it to be. A transatlantic, empty if necessary, to get Silhouette over to Europe. Without that there is no hope for my cruise in October. 😪

I am with you as I also am due to be on Silhouette in October. Mind you will be seventy just a couple of days before the cruise, and would need a change in UK government travel advice before I can go. My daughter has offered to go with my sixty something wife - kind of her!

My next cruise is due to be in October 2020, 3 days after my seventieth birthday. Current UK government advice is not to travel at all. We don't have to decide what to do until final payment is due in July and later still if Celebrity change their policy on cancellations 48 hours to include October cruises. If still in force the doctor's certificate is another check. I don't mind having a form as it is useful to know if my doctor thinks I am fit to travel. I guess travelling without his agreement might invalidate my travel insurance, if not for this cruise then in future as it is a certainty that insurance companies will tighten their policies. The whole business is very uncertain.

We are supposed to be on Silhouette in October. We plan to go but dependent on where we are with controls. We will make a final decision just before we have to pay the main payment in July - if Celebrity extend their 48 hour cancellation to October cruises, will pay up and make a final decision very close to the cruise.

Must like risks. Bought 100 many years ago at 30 pounds per share and have held them. Loaned my daughter who has just discovered  cruising 650 pounds last week to buy another 100. I can't see any dividend for at least two years, but if Carnival survives so will, I suspect the obc.

I don't think the US government will let Carnival or Royal Caribbean go bust. They are talking about spending $1trillion to help the economic consequences and I suspect they would underwrite the loan which carnival took out. My next cruise booked with the carnival brand is with Princess in April 2021, Celebrity in October 2020. As  shareholder who paid £3000 for my 100 shares I hope as well that Carnival does not go bust but we will see.

I haven't booked yet. We have had two holidays cancelled for May. The first we booked in early 2019 to China, full refund sent in early March. The second booked straight after was cancelled to Italy, lost deposit but should get money back via insurance. We were waiting for the new policy before deciding on boking a cruise in May as we really need to have a break. I understand why P&O are not giving the new cancellation policy for new bookings, but equally I can't take a chance on booking and losing all my money. As we are retired I think I will need to wait until a week before the cruise and book very last minute - I expect there will be spaces then. Only small issue is booking  the cat in  to the catery last minute!!

We were booked for China next month but unsurprisingly the holiday was cancelled and we received a full refund. We are looking at a P&O cruise in May but won't book unless and until they change their cancellation policy. The prices have dropped a lot but as an asthmatic I don't want to take a risk on what the situation may be in May under the current policy

We were going to China next month but now cancelled and refund paid. We would book a P&O cruise if they had the same policy as Princess. There is no reason why the next issues should not be P&O or Celebrity etc. We really need a break but as a moderately aged asthmatic I need some confidence to go or cancel at short notice

We were due to go to China and our holiday was unsurprisingly cancelled. We started looing at cruises but have decided to wait. I ma in my sixty's and an asthmatic, so whilst for many people this virus may not be serious, it could potentially be so for me, so waiting seems good to us. We have cruises booked for October and March 2021 so are certainly not cancelling them

Thanks for your very helpful comments. I know Patrick didn't get to Stanley but think Crewbie did. Just wondered what tendering was like there - long waits? Are there British pubs in the town?

A group of us are with Puerto Montt Excursiones (Denis Purtov). Just wondered if you went with him and how it went. Was it worth going up the volcano?

Thanks

Thanks for the review. We are on the Star on Feb 14th. Sorry you missed Stanley. Did you miss Punta Arenas as well? On our cruise they are the only ports where you can easily see penguins. We don't go to Puerto Madryn.

We have four tender ports so the tendering is important on our cruise. I would be interested to know how you got on in Puerto Montt. If you were on a Princess tour you obviously got on shore easily, if you were private, how long did you have to wait to get ashore? I would have asked a similar question for Stanley but sadly you missed that port.

Looking at the web cam looks like the Beagle Channel was spectacular, any other must see places while on board.

Thanks

Phil

We visited the clinic yesterday and along with the nurse decided the risk of yellow fever was less than that

of being immunised. We will cover ourselves in a deet mosquito repellent and hope for the best. We have exemption certificates.