danv3

Q: What happens if ships go out, and people get sick?

A: Cruising gets shut down again and the affected cruise lines declare bankruptcy.  

No idea why Carnival wants to rush to be first.  

This has the potential to get ugly.  Hopefully the find enough volunteers to move based on lift and shift or additional offers (like when airlines are oversold).  If they start canceling cruises for people who have paid reservations when the cruise is actually going to sail...YIKES.  

I read between the lines here that not all

ships are coming back. Majesty and Empress are pretty obvious (barring an indication that Cuba travel is going to restart after January 2021).  Vision class was already on the way out. 
 

Hopefully Radiance class will be spared. 😬

August 1 would be an absolute best-case scenario, to be honest.  

If RCI wants to address this virus, the way to do it isn't to close buffets on cruise ships.  It's to stop cruising.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/how-covid-spreads.html

The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.

• Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet).
• Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes, or talks.
• These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.
• COVID-19 may be spread by people who are not showing symptoms.

The virus does not spread easily in other ways

COVID-19 is a new disease and we are still learning about how it spreads. It may be possible for COVID-19 to spread in other ways, but these are not thought to be the main ways the virus spreads.

• From touching surfaces or objects. It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes. This is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads, but we are still learning more about this virus

11 hours ago, zekekelso said:

But the lines will need to say they've made changes, and closing the buffets sounds good. 

This is what it really comes down to.  Like wearing masks, it's all about doing things that appear to be helpful in combating coronavirus, regardless of whether they're actually helpful.

(Now if we want to mitigate norovirus on ships, then yeah, the buffet needs to go.)

RCI doesn't know what their plans are yet.  It's as simple as that. 

I'm sure they have some ideas of how they hope things will go, but they can't be specific at this point...too many variables.  Which embarkation ports will be open to departures?  With all the ships moving around, which ships will be near those ports?  Which ports would welcome ships/pax in the near term?  Where will the crew come from?  Can pax fly to ports of embarkation?  Etc. etc.  

Not to say RCI isn't thinking about all of these issues--of course they are--but much of the open items are out of their control.  Hence why they can't outline a plan at this point.

Hmm...  "More akin to a restaurant" is pretty different from what most of us were imagining.  

Of course the real problem is the guests packed in the WJ (and MDR) at peak times, not the manner in which the food is served.

4 hours ago, markeb said:

IMHO, the worst thing the industry can do is throw together a half-baked set of measures and have another infected ship. They really have one shot. I don't know that it has to be perfect, but it has to be pretty close. And if they're doing a cold, logical review and the answer keeps being "we don't know", they don't have the data to implement that control measure, and if it's critical, they're stuck.

This is a huge point.  Given all the over-the-top bad press focused on cruiselines already, the margin of error is now basically zero.  If there's an outbreak associated with one of the early cruises, it could be the end of cruising on any kind of scale.  Yes, seriously.

3 hours ago, CGTNORMANDIE said:

Most of you have made plans for future cruises.  The question is...What will it take to make you feel confident enough to get on a ship and enjoy your vacation?  

 

I propose the following:

 

You will not be able to get on a plane or a ship without a 5 minute CV test.  The 5 minute test will prove essential for travel.  Each pax will need to test negative as well as temperature and oxygen tests.  I would not have any problem boarding a plane or a ship if all the other pax have tested negative.  
 

So do you repeat the test at every single port?  Because someone could be negative at embarkation and pick it up mid-cruise.  And if someone tests positive at a port stop, what then?  Left on the pier?  

Personally, I don't think testing is a significant component of the return to cruising, unless it's antibody testing (assuming that antibodies convey long-term immunity, which is presently unknown).  

29 minutes ago, SkierRobUMN said:

People are so paranoid about touching things when the COVID-19 risk is so low from surface contact. It’s transmitted through respiratory droplets. 

This.  While surface contact could be a vector for infection, it's not the primary vector.  

It essentially has to continue in some form.  Otherwise, there's not sufficient available feeding capacity on the ship.  

7 minutes ago, time4u2go said:

If they are the disposable variety.

Even if they're the reusable cloth type, they'll quickly get contaminated and/or sweaty and will need to be removed, washed, and dried.  So each guest will need a decent number of masks to rotate through over the course of a day.  

10 hours ago, SeaHunt said:

Regarding RCI, since they filed for the SEAFACE mask trademark do you think they plan on providing them for everyone onboard?

They couldn't possibly produce enough fast enough.  They'd need minimum 3-4 per day per passenger.  

Interestingly, bookings aren't as bad as you might have expected:

Prior to the outbreak of COVID-19, the Company started the year in a strong booked position and at higher prices on a prior year comparable basis. Given the impact of COVID-19, booking volumes for the remainder of 2020 are meaningfully lower than the same time last year at prices that are down low-single digits. Due to the suspension in sailings, booking trends reflect elevated cancellations for 2020 and more typical levels for 2021 and beyond. Although still early in the booking cycle, the booked position for 2021 is within historical ranges when compared to same time last year with 2021 prices up mid-single digits compared to 2020.

The Company has instituted several programs in order to best serve its guests: for cancelled cruises, guests are offered the choice of future cruise credits valued at 125% of the initial cruise fare paid in lieu of providing cash refunds. As of April 30, 2020, approximately 45% of the guests have requested cash refunds. For non-cancelled cruises, the Company has implemented a “Cruise with Confidence” policy.

As of March 31, 2020, the Company had $2.4 billion in customer deposits. This includes approximately $0.8 billion of future cruise credits related to previously announced voyage cancellations through June 11, 2020.

The Company also continues to take future bookings for 2020, 2021 and 2022, and receive new customer deposits and final payments on these bookings.

Per SEC filing: "The Company’s ships are currently transitioning into various levels of layup with several ships in the fleet transitioning into cold layup, further reducing operating expenses"

Unclear if this means RCI or other brands within RCCL family.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/884887/000110465920058425/tm2018985d1_ex99-1.htm

46 minutes ago, hazence said:

"There's no reason to be walking around with a mask," infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci told 60 Minutes. 

While masks may block some droplets, Fauci said, they do not provide the level of protection people think they do. Wearing a mask may also have unintended consequences: People who wear masks tend to touch their face more often to adjust them, which can spread germs from their hands.“

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/preventing-coronavirus-facemask-60-minutes-2020-03-08/

For healthy people, both the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommend they wear masks only when taking care of those who are sick or suspected of having the virus. “
 

That was the advice early on. If you argue that they are only necessary now that the disease has spread...why weren’t we told by ALL THESE EXPERTS...to  grab... any cloth covering before so many people got sick in certain areas?

 

Why did they advise us not to wear masks+if this could have stopped the spread and saved lives like they say it does now?

 

How is a bandana or homemade mask suddenly offering more protection than it did when Dr Fauci made these comments? “They do not provide the level of protection people think they do!”

 

The original comments were lies to avoid runs on medical-grade masks (as we saw with toilet paper).  

I'm sure this will be enforced as rigorously as no saving seats in the theater, no chair hogs on the pool deck, no shorts in the MDR for dinner, etc., etc., etc.

Without fail, for years now. 

I don't know if they will start August 1, but I do think this is how it will go in the first few weeks and months...a few ships, from a few ports, visiting only a few specific places.  

34 minutes ago, strathcona said:

I don't know , but I am sure this is a Miami Law office that does Pro Bono work against cruise line. You always need someone to blame. 

Zero percent chance this is being done on a pro bono basis.

The first hurdle will be to see whether they can keep the case in court instead of arbitration as RCI would prefer.

11 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

The $200 was probably for taxes, which are not part of the FCC.

I don't think so.  All I had paid was $200 (deposit).  I canceled the cruise myself under "Cruise with Confidence."  It appears to have just been an error.  🤑

Yeah, I got a $200 refund when I should have gotten $0.  (I canceled so was only eligible for FCC.)

I got a refund today for a deposit on a cruise I canceled.  Came within two weeks of cancelling.  I was expecting FCC so I don't know what happened.

0.001% chance of starting on June 12.

No cruise line wants to be first.