when to purchase airfaire?

[waynefamily]

We are looking at going on a cruise in Jan 2012 that leaves out of San Juan. Flights aren't out yet for that far away. Can anyone tell me what they've paid to fly from the midwest to San Juan in Jan. and when you booked? Or just in general, how early out from your cruise are you booking air?

[FlyerTalker]

What someone else paid for a ticket has no bearing on what you will pay. Or how far out they bought. There are four main factors involved in airline ticket pricing:

 

1) When the travel is occurring. Part of pricing is when the travel will be taking place. During high seasons, tickets are priced higher, while you can get some good bargains to Moscow & Scandinavia for trips taken in the dead of winter. Even week to week, or day to day can have variances - so another person's trip won't tell you what the pricing is for your own specific travel time.

 

2) City pairs. Just because it is "the midwest", doesn't mean there is a correlation. Fares from Peoria are different than from Moline, from Springfield, from St. Louis, from Chicago. It's not the distance involved, but rather the market dynamics between the two cities/airports. A great example is the difference in pricing between flights into MIA and FLL. Basically serving the same market, but often pricing is higher into MIA (reflecting the AA hub and higher operating costs at MIA). Same with IAD/DCA/BWI and the NYC, LA and San Francisco areas.

 

3) When the ticket is purchased. Yes, there are "sales", when an airline promotes lower ticket pricing. But these are rarely telegraphed as doing so would canibalize regular ticket purchases. Also, "sales" are often limited in the time period when people can fly and in the city-pairs being offered. So, just because there is a sale doesn't mean it would apply to your dates and cities.

 

4) Supply and demand on your particular flights, along with the allocated inventory. It's important to know that ticket pricing is a function of both "fare" and "inventory". "Fare" does NOT equal "Price". Airline "fares" are relatively stable, as these are the defined fare levels and fare rules loaded into the reservation systems. While the various "fares" remain the same for a given time span, "inventory" on each specific flight is varied to maximize revenue for the airline. Only a certain number of seats are allocated for each of the various "fare buckets" - once those are sold out, tickets only become available in higher priced "fares". So, desirable flights may have a higher price, as demand for them was higher and the "cheap seats" sold out.

 

This inventory allocation is dynamic, and airlines have staffs of highly-intelligent folk whose entire job is to adjust inventory to maximize return for the carrier. Which is why you may see a price of $xxx one day, and find it gone hours later. Only so much inventory and it's now gone. Or the reverse - you later find a ticket that costs less. That's revenue management working to stimulate demand for that flight by releasing inventory into the lower buckets.

 

Trying to predict the highs and lows of airline ticket costs is like trying to find the bottoms and tops of the stock market. It is Econ 101 all the way through to Ph.D. dissertation plus. You don't need to know it all, but understanding basic supply and demand can help a lot. For example....it is "cruise day" in Buenos Aires, with 2500 people getting off a ship. They need to go somewhere. Demand will be higher for flights out of EZE that day than for surrounding ones. Same with flights into cruise ports. Think of the aggregate demand caused by your fellow cruisers. Ditto with flights during "spring break" or at holidays.

 

Best advice is generally: If you find a price you are happy with, grab it and go. Don't look back and fret. If you really want, do some basic game theory and ask yourself what the "payoffs" would be in waiting -- if the price went down versus if they went up. Because, in the end, it's your own personal satisfaction that's at stake.