mousey Posted August 25, 2012 #276 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I hate hearing about the tornadoes because one year one took off the corner of our screened in patio! I don't live there but my parents do and they hate tornadoes, they are afraid of them and I don't blame them. Our house is located just outside Ocala in central FL. I don't know how any cruises are going to be able to leave out of FL this weekend or next Mon. but good luck to all of you that have plans to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott34787 Posted August 25, 2012 Author #277 Share Posted August 25, 2012 11pm- 8/24 000 WTNT44 KNHC 250319 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION AND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF ISAAC HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT AN EYE IS FORMING...AND THIS IS THE BASIS FOR INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 60 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/12 BASED ON RECON AND MICROWAVE FIXES. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK FORCAST WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT THROUGH 48 HOURS...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. RECENT UPPER-AIR DATA AND NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THE TROUGH THAT HAS CREATED THE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA HAS SHIFTED TO A POSITION JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE 18Z GFS MODEL... WHICH SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF ITS 12Z TRACK...CAPTURED THIS FARTHER EAST POSITION...WHEREAS THE 18Z UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF KEPT THE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA VALID AT 00Z THIS EVENING. BASED ON THE GFS VERIFYING BETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AT 00Z THIS EVENING...THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND KEEPING ISAAC ON A MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD HEADING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15 THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THOSE MODELS AFTER THAT. WITH THE INNER CORE CONVECTION IMPROVING...THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY THAT ISAAC COULD REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE REACHING HAITI TONIGHT. THE INTENSITY FROM 12-24 HOURS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF LAND INTERACTION WITH HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA. AFTER THAT...THE SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS ENOUGH TO PLACE ISAAC OVER WATER LONGER THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST REQUIRED AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE EASTWARD TRACK SHIFT AND A LARGER INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH ARE WHAT NECESSITATED THE CHANGES IN THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR FLORIDA. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare maxandmolly Posted August 25, 2012 #278 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Our local channels are saying they don't buy the more westward tracks, but a little further east. And even on the 11pm track, my area is looking at TS force or near TS force winds and tons of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xperia! Posted August 25, 2012 #279 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Our local channels are saying they don't buy the more westward tracks, but a little further east. And even on the 11pm track, my area is looking at TS force or near TS force winds and tons of rain. Do you know how long a Tropical Storm can last? Depart Miami at 4PM, and supposed to arrive in Key West (8:00AM-4:00PM) on Monday. The graph shows that it'll hit there 8PM Sunday... :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sh1035 Posted August 25, 2012 #280 Share Posted August 25, 2012 It's going to rain....welcome to the south in the hurricane season. Face it the weatherman gets sick of saying chance of rain everyday. So now he gets extra time to be a star! I swear they get commission at home depot! Ive seen worse living in DC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40yearcruiser Posted August 25, 2012 #281 Share Posted August 25, 2012 We're scheduled to cruise out of Jacksonville on Monday headed for Key West and Nassau, so are closely watching the forecasts. From past experience it's impossible to know just where the storm is going to end up--just hoping for the best! I've been trying to reassure my friends who haven't cruised before that the ship won't go where it isn't safe (hope I'm right) and will change the itinerary if necessary to avoid the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steiny47 Posted August 25, 2012 #282 Share Posted August 25, 2012 We're scheduled to cruise out of Jacksonville on Monday headed for Key West and Nassau, so are closely watching the forecasts. From past experience it's impossible to know just where the storm is going to end up--just hoping for the best! I've been trying to reassure my friends who haven't cruised before that the ship won't go where it isn't safe (hope I'm right) and will change the itinerary if necessary to avoid the storm. We will be on this cruise with you! We've been waiting to hear about any changes that might be made, but wherever we end up will be ok with us as we will be cruising! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuthlessBoss Posted August 25, 2012 #283 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Do you know how long a Tropical Storm can last? Depart Miami at 4PM, and supposed to arrive in Key West (8:00AM-4:00PM) on Monday. The graph shows that it'll hit there 8PM Sunday... :/ The rains should start before a Miami arrival, and will linger days after. This is not a local cloudburst that comes and goes in a few hours, and will be accompanied with winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xperia! Posted August 25, 2012 #284 Share Posted August 25, 2012 The rains should start before a Miami arrival, and will linger days after. This is not a local cloudburst that comes and goes in a few hours, and will be accompanied with winds. Ahh alright. Not favourable weather I see. hope the captain could bring us into good waters. :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Surfwench Posted August 25, 2012 #285 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott34787 Posted August 25, 2012 Author #286 Share Posted August 25, 2012 8am - 8/25 Track Update Forecast track shifted east - Shows Landfall in the Panhandle TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 500 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012 THE CIRCULATION OF ISAAC HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY INTACT AFTERMOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI OVERNIGHT. BEFORE THE CENTER MOVED INLAND... HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGESTED THAT THE CYCLONE HAD PEAK WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT. ASSUMING THE CYCLONE WEAKENED A LITTLE AFTER ENCOUNTERING THE HIGH TERRAIN... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/12. AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...ISAAC WILL MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO...AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NHC FORECAST THIS CYCLE... AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE GFS AND THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 96 HOURS. BY DAY 5 THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER ISAAC WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS SHOWN BY THE GFS...UKMET...AND THE GFDL OR BE LEFT BEHIND AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND HWRF. THE NHC DAY 5 POINT IS BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS SHOWING A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION. GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE HAS FARED RATHER WELL AFTER MOVING ACROSS HAITI...AND THAT THE TRACK FORECAST HAS ONLY MINIMAL INTERACTION WITH CUBA...THE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 12 HOURS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM AFTERWARD. THE NEW NHC FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ISAAC DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott34787 Posted August 25, 2012 Author #287 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Safe travels to those leaving on their cruise! We will be thinking of you and sending happy thoughts your way. Anyone who has Internet access on-board, please update us and let us know how the conditions are and how the cruise is going. Stay positive and enjoy the adventure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DEERINH2O Posted August 25, 2012 #288 Share Posted August 25, 2012 About an hour outside Miami and we have lots of rain. Leaving on the Liberty today. Will enjoy this vacation no matter what but pray safe travels to everyone. Will try and update throughout the week from the ship Katjy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott34787 Posted August 25, 2012 Author #289 Share Posted August 25, 2012 11am Advisory - 8/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott34787 Posted August 25, 2012 Author #290 Share Posted August 25, 2012 PORT OF TAMPA - Due to the potential impact of Tropical Storm Isaac, no vessels, including cruise boats and cargo movement, will be allowed to move through the Port of Tampa. A “Condition X-ray” was issued by the U.S. Coast Guard at 9:00 a.m. Saturday, and the decision was handed down that no traffic will pass through the Port of Tampa after 3:00 a.m. Sunday. Carnival, which is the only cruise line to run out of the port in the summer, had cruises scheduled for Saturday and Sunday. Anyone scheduled to board Sunday’s cruise, the Carnival Legend, should get in contact with the cruise line immediately, as it will not be allowed through the port. The Tampa Port Authority, in conjunction with the Port Heavy Weather Advisory Group is continuing to monitor Isaac. No changes are expected to be made unless there is a significant change in storm path or intensity. http://www.abcactionnews.com/dpp/news/region_tampa/port-of-tampa-to-be-closed-to-cruises-all-other-vessels--due-to-tropical-storm-isaac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooterpopsnana Posted August 25, 2012 #291 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Leaving out of Jax on 9/1....anxiously watching Tropical Depression Joyce. :eek: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cruizinpooh Posted August 25, 2012 #292 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Not sure if it's already been posted here or not but our local station just mentioned that both Port of Miami and Port Everglades will close tonight at 11p. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott34787 Posted August 25, 2012 Author #293 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Not sure if it's already been posted here or not but our local station just mentioned that both Port of Miami and Port Everglades will close tonight at 11p. Hi CruzinPooh and welcome to party! I posted about Tampa being closed at 3am Sunday morning but you are the first to bring up MIA and PE. Thank you for the update. Anyone have news about Legend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cruizinpooh Posted August 25, 2012 #294 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Hi CruzinPooh and welcome to party! I posted about Tampa being closed at 3am Sunday morning but you are the first to bring up MIA and PE. Thank you for the update. Anyone have news about Legend? Hmm.. I'm surprised that they haven't made a decision about Tampa yet, but being that Miami and Port Everglades are closed, I'd say the only other port that's open would be Port Canaveral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thephantomsgirl Posted August 25, 2012 #295 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Safe cruising to anyone going this weekend! I live in Central Florida, right at the edge of the cone. Guess it's time to box a box of wine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hftmrock Posted August 25, 2012 #296 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Not sure if it's already been posted here or not but our local station just mentioned that both Port of Miami and Port Everglades will close tonight at 11p. and reopen sometime on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott34787 Posted August 25, 2012 Author #297 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Just made final clean up of yard and patio..... last food and drink run after the 2pm update. Not really sure what to expect this over the next three days. The thing that really concerns me is even the slightest chance of a tornado - we are going to be on the "rough side' of the storm and a tornado destroyed the local drive-in movie theatre in the 80s, I believe. Here's why I am a little on edge: I had a dream earlier this year where I was standing in front of 3 or 4 simultaneous twisters. I have to admit it's on my bucket list to see a tornado in real life, so in my dream I wasn't scared... I was staring in awe of them and when they moved I ran after them. The problem was the dream was set on my street. I'm not big on omens, clairvoyance or precognition, but after watching "Shelter" last week (great movie BTW), I have to admit I'm a little spooked. So vigilance is the word - hoping and praying for the best (for everyone) and prepared for the worst. Oh, and if the twisters do arrive on my street, I will not be chasing them through the niegborhood. I will be in the walk-in closet hunkered down with my family. If I want to see a twister I will go to Universal. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thephantomsgirl Posted August 25, 2012 #298 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Scott, Definitely take precautions and watch the weather reports, or have a weather radio! I've never encountered a tornado close up, but have seen one a few miles away when I lived in NC. Scary! Also had one about a mile and a half away where I live now. Didn't see or really hear it - though there was just an eerie feeling to the air. I hope everyone in any part of Isaac's path stays safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott34787 Posted August 25, 2012 Author #299 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Scott, Also had one about a mile and a half away where I live now. Didn't see or really hear it - though there was just an eerie feeling to the air. I know that feeling - it's when the pressure drops suddenly. So does our cat. During a bad summer storm: Our cat jumps to the counter, leaps to the top of the cabinets, and dives into a dead space in back of them. 20 seconds later the tornado alert comes on! :eek: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott34787 Posted August 25, 2012 Author #300 Share Posted August 25, 2012 The Keys are getting hammered... outer bands already???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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