TS / (Hurricane?) Isaac

[mousey]

I hate hearing about the tornadoes because one year one took off the corner of our screened in patio! I don't live there but my parents do and they hate tornadoes, they are afraid of them and I don't blame them. Our house is located just outside Ocala in central FL.

 

I don't know how any cruises are going to be able to leave out of FL this weekend or next Mon. but good luck to all of you that have plans to.

[Scott34787]

11pm- 8/24

 

000

WTNT44 KNHC 250319

TCDAT4

 

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 16

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012

1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012

 

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE

CIRCULATION AND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF ISAAC HAS CONTINUED TO

IMPROVE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. INFRARED AND MICROWAVE

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT AN EYE IS FORMING...AND THIS IS THE

BASIS FOR INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 60 KT.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/12 BASED ON RECON AND MICROWAVE

FIXES. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK FORCAST WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE

RIGHT THROUGH 48 HOURS...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO

THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. RECENT UPPER-AIR DATA AND NOAA G-IV

AIRCRAFT DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THE TROUGH THAT HAS CREATED THE

BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA HAS SHIFTED TO A

POSITION JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE 18Z GFS MODEL...

WHICH SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF ITS 12Z TRACK...CAPTURED THIS FARTHER

EAST POSITION...WHEREAS THE 18Z UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF KEPT THE TROUGH

ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA VALID AT 00Z THIS EVENING.

BASED ON THE GFS VERIFYING BETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AT 00Z THIS

EVENING...THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT.

AFTER 48 HOURS...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD

ACROSS FLORIDA AND KEEPING ISAAC ON A MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD HEADING

ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15

THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THOSE

MODELS AFTER THAT.

 

WITH THE INNER CORE CONVECTION IMPROVING...THERE IS STILL THE

POSSIBILITY THAT ISAAC COULD REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE

REACHING HAITI TONIGHT. THE INTENSITY FROM 12-24 HOURS WILL BE

DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF LAND INTERACTION WITH HAITI AND EASTERN

CUBA. AFTER THAT...THE SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK

IS ENOUGH TO PLACE ISAAC OVER WATER LONGER THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED

IN THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST REQUIRED AN INCREASE IN THE

INTENSITY FORECAST. THE EASTWARD TRACK SHIFT AND A LARGER INITIAL

AND FORECAST WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH ARE WHAT NECESSITATED THE

CHANGES IN THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR FLORIDA.

 

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK DUE TO THE

UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE

AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

[maxandmolly]

Our local channels are saying they don't buy the more westward tracks, but a little further east. And even on the 11pm track, my area is looking at TS force or near TS force winds and tons of rain.

[Xperia!]

Our local channels are saying they don't buy the more westward tracks, but a little further east. And even on the 11pm track, my area is looking at TS force or near TS force winds and tons of rain.

 

Do you know how long a Tropical Storm can last? Depart Miami at 4PM, and supposed to arrive in Key West (8:00AM-4:00PM) on Monday. The graph shows that it'll hit there 8PM Sunday... :/

[Sh1035]

It's going to rain....welcome to the south in the hurricane season.

 

Face it the weatherman gets sick of saying chance of rain everyday. So now he gets extra time to be a star! I swear they get commission at home depot!

 

Ive seen worse living in DC....

[40yearcruiser]

We're scheduled to cruise out of Jacksonville on Monday headed for Key West and Nassau, so are closely watching the forecasts. From past experience it's impossible to know just where the storm is going to end up--just hoping for the best! I've been trying to reassure my friends who haven't cruised before that the ship won't go where it isn't safe (hope I'm right) and will change the itinerary if necessary to avoid the storm.

[steiny47]

We're scheduled to cruise out of Jacksonville on Monday headed for Key West and Nassau, so are closely watching the forecasts. From past experience it's impossible to know just where the storm is going to end up--just hoping for the best! I've been trying to reassure my friends who haven't cruised before that the ship won't go where it isn't safe (hope I'm right) and will change the itinerary if necessary to avoid the storm.

 

We will be on this cruise with you! We've been waiting to hear about any changes that might be made, but wherever we end up will be ok with us as we will be cruising!

[RuthlessBoss]

Do you know how long a Tropical Storm can last? Depart Miami at 4PM, and supposed to arrive in Key West (8:00AM-4:00PM) on Monday. The graph shows that it'll hit there 8PM Sunday... :/

The rains should start before a Miami arrival, and will linger days after. This is not a local cloudburst that comes and goes in a few hours, and will be accompanied with winds.

[Xperia!]

The rains should start before a Miami arrival, and will linger days after. This is not a local cloudburst that comes and goes in a few hours, and will be accompanied with winds.

 

Ahh alright. Not favourable weather I see. hope the captain could bring us into good waters. :P

[Surfwench]

[Scott34787]

8am - 8/25 Track Update

 

Forecast track shifted east - Shows Landfall in the Panhandle

 

 

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 17

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012

500 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

THE CIRCULATION OF ISAAC HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY INTACT AFTERMOVING ACROSS

THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI OVERNIGHT. BEFORE THE CENTER MOVED INLAND...

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGESTED THAT THE CYCLONE HAD PEAK WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT.

ASSUMING THE CYCLONE WEAKENED A LITTLE AFTER ENCOUNTERING THE HIGH TERRAIN...

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/12. AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS

OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...ISAAC WILL MOVE GENERALLY

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE

NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO...AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE

TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO

THE NHC FORECAST THIS CYCLE...

 

AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE

AND LIES CLOSE TO THE GFS AND THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 96 HOURS.

 

BY DAY 5 THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER ISAAC WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD

AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS SHOWN BY THE GFS...UKMET...AND THE GFDL OR BE LEFT

BEHIND AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND HWRF. THE NHC DAY 5 POINT IS BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS

SHOWING A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION.

 

GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE HAS FARED RATHER WELL AFTER MOVING ACROSS

HAITI...AND THAT THE TRACK FORECAST HAS ONLY MINIMAL INTERACTION

WITH CUBA...THE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 12 HOURS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED

UPWARD FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ISAAC

IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL

INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF

MEXICO IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS

CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM AFTERWARD.

 

THE NEW NHC FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE

WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST

OF FLORIDA AT THIS TIME.

 

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ISAAC DUE TO THE

UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE AREA

OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

[Scott34787]

Safe travels to those leaving on their cruise!

We will be thinking of you and sending happy

thoughts your way.

 

Anyone who has Internet access on-board,

please update us and let us know how the

conditions are and how the cruise is going.

 

Stay positive and enjoy the adventure!

[DEERINH2O]

About an hour outside Miami and we have lots of rain. Leaving on the Liberty today. Will enjoy this vacation no matter what but pray safe travels to everyone.

 

Will try and update throughout the week from the ship

 

Katjy

[Scott34787]

11am Advisory - 8/25

 

[Scott34787]

PORT OF TAMPA - Due to the potential impact of Tropical Storm Isaac, no vessels, including cruise boats and cargo movement, will be allowed to move through the Port of Tampa.

 

A “Condition X-ray” was issued by the U.S. Coast Guard at 9:00 a.m. Saturday, and the decision was handed down that no traffic will pass through the Port of Tampa after 3:00 a.m. Sunday.

 

Carnival, which is the only cruise line to run out of the port in the summer, had cruises scheduled for Saturday and Sunday.

 

Anyone scheduled to board Sunday’s cruise, the Carnival Legend, should get in contact with the cruise line immediately, as it will not be allowed through the port.

 

The Tampa Port Authority, in conjunction with the Port Heavy Weather Advisory Group is continuing to monitor Isaac.

 

No changes are expected to be made unless there is a significant change in storm path or intensity.

 

 

http://www.abcactionnews.com/dpp/news/region_tampa/port-of-tampa-to-be-closed-to-cruises-all-other-vessels--due-to-tropical-storm-isaac

[scooterpopsnana]

Leaving out of Jax on 9/1....anxiously watching Tropical Depression Joyce. :eek:

[cruizinpooh]

Not sure if it's already been posted here or not but our local station just mentioned that both Port of Miami and Port Everglades will close tonight at 11p.

[Scott34787]

Not sure if it's already been posted here or not but our local station just mentioned that both Port of Miami and Port Everglades will close tonight at 11p.

 

Hi CruzinPooh and welcome to party!

 

I posted about Tampa being closed at 3am Sunday morning but

you are the first to bring up MIA and PE.

 

Thank you for the update.

 

Anyone have news about Legend?

[cruizinpooh]

Hi CruzinPooh and welcome to party!

 

I posted about Tampa being closed at 3am Sunday morning but

you are the first to bring up MIA and PE.

 

Thank you for the update.

 

Anyone have news about Legend?

 

Hmm.. I'm surprised that they haven't made a decision about Tampa yet, but being that Miami and Port Everglades are closed, I'd say the only other port that's open would be Port Canaveral.

[thephantomsgirl]

Safe cruising to anyone going this weekend!

 

I live in Central Florida, right at the edge of the cone. Guess it's time to box a box of wine?

[hftmrock]

Not sure if it's already been posted here or not but our local station just mentioned that both Port of Miami and Port Everglades will close tonight at 11p.

 

 

and reopen sometime on Monday

[Scott34787]

Just made final clean up of yard and patio.....

last food and drink run after the 2pm update.

 

Not really sure what to expect this over the next

three days. The thing that really concerns me is

even the slightest chance of a tornado - we

are going to be on the "rough side' of the storm

and a tornado destroyed the local drive-in movie

theatre in the 80s, I believe.

 

Here's why I am a little on edge:

I had a dream earlier this year where I was standing

in front of 3 or 4 simultaneous twisters. I have to admit

it's on my bucket list to see a tornado in real life, so

in my dream I wasn't scared... I was staring in awe of

them and when they moved I ran after them.

 

The problem was the dream was set on my street.

 

I'm not big on omens, clairvoyance or precognition, but

after watching "Shelter" last week (great movie BTW),

I have to admit I'm a little spooked.

 

So vigilance is the word - hoping and praying for the

best (for everyone) and prepared for the worst.

 

Oh, and if the twisters do arrive on my street, I will

not be chasing them through the niegborhood.

I will be in the walk-in closet hunkered down with my family.

 

If I want to see a twister I will go to Universal. :)

[thephantomsgirl]

Scott,

 

Definitely take precautions and watch the weather reports, or have a weather radio! I've never encountered a tornado close up, but have seen one a few miles away when I lived in NC. Scary!

 

Also had one about a mile and a half away where I live now. Didn't see or really hear it - though there was just an eerie feeling to the air.

 

I hope everyone in any part of Isaac's path stays safe.

[Scott34787]

Scott,

Also had one about a mile and a half away where I live now. Didn't see or really hear it - though there was just an eerie feeling to the air.

 

I know that feeling - it's when the pressure

drops suddenly. So does our cat.

 

During a bad summer storm:

Our cat jumps to the counter,

leaps to the top of the cabinets,

and dives into a dead space in back of them.

 

20 seconds later the tornado alert comes on! :eek:

[Scott34787]

The Keys are getting hammered... outer bands already????