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Tropical Storm Arlene


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hw3.cgi?config=png,tropmaps&forecast=tropsystems&alt=plotTropicalMap&hwvstormid=1&stormregion=NT&year=2005&noaaeventnum=1&plot=satellite&zoom=1&advtype=&sattype=ir&showfore=&plotcities=&hwvusename=nt_tropical+storm+arlene_id1_2005_satellite_ir_zoom1&hwvmetric=

 

Seems their is an INVEST posted for the following, also forming in the region, in addition to Arlene:

 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

NARROWING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W

CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM OVER E CUBA TO 32N76W WITH

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF 68W. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE

TO ACROSS ALL OF THE BAHAMAS. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE

CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC NOW EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 29N53W

TO A SECOND DEEP LAYERED LOW NEAR 26N56W TO THE N LEEWARD/VIRGIN

ISLANDS. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 18N BETWEEN 50W-66W CLIPPING THE

NE CARIBBEAN FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS. AT THE

SURFACE...A LOW LEVEL SWIRL REMAINS WITH A 1013 MB LOW ANALYZED

NEAR 26N56W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N52W TO

22N61W. BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF 26.5N

FROM 51-58W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM

OF 29.5N FROM 50W-54W. SECOND MID/UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE

EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N28W SW TO A BASE NEAR

15N40W WITH A COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE N PORTION OF THE AREA FROM

32N32W W TO 31N39W WHERE IT CONTINUES NW AS A STATIONARY FRONT

OUT OF THE REGION NEAR 32N45W. THIS HAS SPLIT THE TYPICAL SUMMER

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC

FROM INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR 11N15W TO 9N35W.

 

20050609.0745.goes12.x.ir1km_bw.91LINVEST.20kts-1012mb-269N-571W.jpg

 

Extended WRF data shows parts of AL/MS getting 20 inches of rain!

 

wrfxx_1_000.gif

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More often than not ships have plenty of time to adjust their heading to avoid a storm, so don't worry. The captain will do everything in their power to avoid heading into a storm, they should be fine.

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Sure thing! Next update should be around 2pm EST...for those looking who may not have been with us here last hurricane season. The images posted in my first few posts should auto-update, so you'll be able to see changes in them as time passes.

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Thanks for posting this!:) I guess we'll all be keeping a close watch now and throughout "the season."

 

BTW, I lived in Naples until 5 years ago. Still feels like home to me! I'm keeping my fingers crossed that you guys get through this season unscathed.

 

Elf

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I hope Alexrnk46 can keep us updated on the VOS. They are supposed to be rounding the west tip of Cuba "at sea" today. I wonder if they beat the storm, are following it, or went a different direction back the other way around. (The VOS does not report on the positions page posted above.)

 

120 miles sounds pretty close! Interesting!

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I am leaving on the Explorer out of Miami on Sunday evening.....we are going to the Eastern Caribbean.....Do they often cancel cruises?? Would it be more likely that they will re route us if need be?? HELP! New to this summer cruising thing....I'm worried:(

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I am leaving on the Explorer out of Miami on Sunday evening.....we are going to the Eastern Caribbean.....Do they often cancel cruises?? Would it be more likely that they will re route us if need be?? HELP! New to this summer cruising thing....I'm worried:(

 

This storm should (note,should)be inland pretty well West of Miami.by Sunday Am.I see no reason why any of your Eastern ports will be effected.Hopefully you are driving,or you are flying in a day early,as air transpo could possibly be effected along the gulf coast,in to parts of Florida.

You should be fine regarding this one.. (but did I hear rumors of a wave off of Africa:eek: :D :p )

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Hi there ELF! Naples is a beautiful place to live, but becomming too crowded rapidly...

 

Brn2crz, yeah, looks like the INVEST from this morning was a test, it's completely gone now.

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For those of you worried... last season was certainly among the worst. No cruises were canceled outright as far as I can remember... but some were modified as to port stops, or ports omitted. Some cruises were extended because they had to sail wide of a storm,, and some were shortened. They always offer some compensation and assistance with travel changes.

 

Only a few cruises get affected, but, If you sail in hurricane season, be ready for changes in itinerary, and ready for a change in departure or return date.

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Thanks for the reassuring words! I feel a bit better...I think....unfortunately we are getting into miami the same day as departure...but we are leaving chicago at 6:15AM - so hopefully, even if there are delays, it won't screw things up too badly....Keep us posted on any developments!

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Just a reminder...maps in my first few posts will update automatically as new updates are available. For the 11pm NHC advisory and related models, Arlene seems to be shaping up to become a strong TS or even perhaps a CAT 1 hurricane by landfall. NHC and other models have also <included> a slight correction to some projected paths, leading a very minor adjustment east. Heavy rainfall is expected in areas immediately east of the storm.

 

at200501_strike.gif

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Hi Alex ~ My mom is also on VOS right now, so I was glad and relieved to see your post that the ship is doing fine. How has the weather been until now? Will you eliminate stopping in Grand Bahama Island today? Thanks for the info! Glad to hear you're having a great time!

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deaconess

 

You should be fine. Air travel would be my only concern.

 

FYI, we were just on the same cruise as you are going two weeks ago. IT WAS WONDERFUL!!! You will enjoy it greatly. It was cruise #7 for us and probably the best one yet.

 

We too are also from Illinois, just the other end of the state by Carbondale.

 

Enjoy!!!

 

Tim & Crystal

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