Tropical Depression 3 forms 5 pm Sun 7/3

[TVMet]

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

4 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

 

...THIRD DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE NORTHWEST

CARIBBEAN SEA...

 

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE

PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE

OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED JUST TO

THE EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

 

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST OR ABOUT 80

MILES... 125 KM... EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 145 MILES...

235 KM...SOUTH OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

 

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH

...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR

THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL

BE MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY

MONDAY...WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER LAND.

 

Forecast...

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/233324.shtml?5day?large

 

Latest Satellite...

 

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/GULFIR.JPG

[TVMet]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE UPDATE

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI Fl

628 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL

DEPRESSION THREE IS CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA...

 

AT 630 PM CDT...2330Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE

YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL...

INCLUDING THE BANCO CHINCORRO ISLANDS.

 

SHORTLY BEFORE 6 PM CDT...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE

AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 1007 MB

AND THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAD INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF

CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS

REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. THIS MEANS THAT

THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER WARM WATER A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY

EXPECTED...WHICH MAY ALLOW IT TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

[derf5585]

If you want to see this Depression named "NoName" here it is on a map

 

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/cruiseships.phtml

[TVMet]

FYI, if TD #3 continues to get stronger, it will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Cindy. All three tropical systems so far this year have formed in the same area of the Western Caribbean.

 

It is very unusual to have three named storms so early in the season. There have been seasons that have started active early then had nothing really happen in the peak of the season...mid-August to mid-Sept. However, there have been a few seasons that started active early and just kept on going all the way to November with much above normal storm activity. The last time this happened was 1995.

[derf5585]

FYI, if TD #3 continues to get stronger, it will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Cindy. All three tropical systems so far this year have formed in the same area of the Western Caribbean.

 

When it heads to the NE it looks like the Nordic Empress is going to feel it.

[CoachTerry14]

When it heads to the NE it looks like the Nordic Empress is going to feel it.

Lets hope for safe travel for everyone!

[kthill]

So how long do these storms last? We are sailing July 25. Do they tend to follow a cycle? I know our weather seems to be that way, we will have a few days rain/storms and then sunny for a few.

[derf5585]

So how long do these storms last?

It will last for 2 days 2 hours and 5 minutes after having moved in a northerly direction for 10 hours then speeding up and going easterly. Until it dissapates. :rolleyes:

[Bases5]

It will last for 2 days 2 hours and 5 minutes after having moved in a northerly direction for 10 hours then speeding up and going easterly. Until it dissapates.

 

LOL I think you have the minutes all wrong. I think the north wind will be stronger and it will be more like 37 minutes. I could be wrong though.

[christhree]

Looking like landfall between Galveston, and Lake Charles Wed or Thursday...it will most likely strengthen to minimum TS...we need the rain....

GL to all booked...I know At least 1 of them is having a wild ride, and likely will miss Cozumel. Oh well...book in hurricane season, and this is what ya get...can't WAIT to hear all the whiners...:rolleyes:

[mc'smom]

Wow that was a little harsh..

 

Too stupid to title and whiners... Wow...

 

:)

[derf5585]

Wow that was a little harsh..

 

I think I am being harsh for your being harsh of being harsh to someone else.

[ali6879]

Not that I WANT to be stuck in the middle of a hurricane, but a few extra days on the ship might not be so bad.....long as we're not anywhere near it....

[mc'smom]

I think I am being harsh for your being harsh of being harsh to someone else.

 

 

I am being harsh ?

 

To my knowledge I never called anyone on cruise critic Stupid or Whiners...

 

LOL

 

:)

[zydecocruiser]

Looking like landfall between Galveston, and Lake Charles Wed or Thursday...it will most likely strengthen to minimum TS...we need the rain....

 

GL to all booked...I know At least 1 of them is having a wild ride, and likely will miss Cozumel. Oh well...book in hurricane season, and this is what ya get...can't WAIT to hear all the whiners...:rolleyes:

 

Hope is slows down a little. I'm flying from New Orleans to Houston Thursday afternoon and would be a shame to miss!

[mc'smom]

Hope is slows down a little. I'm flying from New Orleans to Houston Thursday afternoon and would be a shame to miss!

 

 

 

LOL

 

:)

[gtalum]

And now just to keep it interesting, TD #4 has now also officially formed.

 

Looks to be a busy season.

[hazeleyez3]

I am supposed to be sailing to the Cayman Islands and Ocho Rios on Saturday. Is this the type of thing that would cancel the trip all together or just have the possibility of missing some ports?

 

Although it would be nice to visit the ports, I am fine with having sea days. If worse comes to worse, we can always book another cruise - just wondering if anybody has any info/advice.

[zydecocruiser]

I am supposed to be sailing to the Cayman Islands and Ocho Rios on Saturday. Is this the type of thing that would cancel the trip all together or just have the possibility of missing some ports?

 

Although it would be nice to visit the ports, I am fine with having sea days. If worse comes to worse, we can always book another cruise - just wondering if anybody has any info/advice.

 

TD3 is a non-event for you. TD4 will probably have some impact.

 

I think it is too early to say what the impact will be. Your Western Caribbean cruise could turn into an Eastern Caribbean cruise. Or it could be a cruise to nowhere. Or Carnival could reverse the ports. The cruise ship could take off early or late. Just depends on the storm. I don't see anything at the moment that would make them cancel the cruise. Also think the storm will be well past Jamaica and Grand Cayman by Saturday, so it is just a matter of can the ship safely get to them.

 

You certainly want to keep in touch with Carnival, but I think your ship will be sailing somewhere - the original itinerary is still certainly possible.

 

Also want to check with the airlines as Saturday approches to find out what they are saying - or are you flying in Friday?

[zydecocruiser]

So how long do these storms last? We are sailing July 25. Do they tend to follow a cycle? I know our weather seems to be that way, we will have a few days rain/storms and then sunny for a few.

 

The current storms will be gone by then. Sometimes they come in waves, sometimes not.

[luv2cruise123]

How will this affect this Thurs., July 7th sailing? First one will hopefully be gone, but what about other one?

[luv2cruise123]

As to afecting a New Orleans departure on Thursday of the Sensation?

[Susky]

At least 1 of them is having a wild ride, and likely will miss Cozumel.

 

Perhaps somebody is looking forward to a wild ride with Miss Cozumel. :eek:

[Earthworm Jim]

How will this affect this Thurs., July 7th sailing? First one will hopefully be gone, but what about other one?

 

It looks like the second one, Tropical Storm Dennis, is forecast to be in the vicinity of Jamaica on Thursday, so it shouldn't impact your departure. Possibly your ports of calls or return though, it's too soon to tell for sure.

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0405W5_sm2+gif/164305W_sm.gif

 

 

[Earthworm Jim]

 

Here's the forecast path.