Tropical Depression #4

[Tarkus]

yeah, she might want to rethink that idea. here's the projected path from (as i'm posting this) the most recent advisory:

 

 

when i went to bed last night, strike probability for sw florida was about 10%. it's now 20% - i'm not quite ready to put-up the hurricane shutters, but if it doesn't continue a solid westward movement i might be inclined to start doing so about this time tomorrow.

 

ugh. it's too soon for these!

[McDebbie]

We're hoping not to see much more than rain from Dennis but I am going to clean off the patio this evening anyway. Like somebody else said, I've seen them go up and down and then wrap around. :D

[vicocala]

Winds are up to 105 MPH a lot of info can be found, including ship changes at the CC news links. Currently, there is an eye discernable as Dennis chugs up the strait between Jamaica and Cuba. The storm is moving in a more northwestward path than earlier predicted which will probably move the predicted path a little more eastward. As is normal with hurricanes the northeastern sector of the storm is the most violent.

 

Glad to see none of my fellow Floridians are not taking the storm seriously.

[Sage]

I'm sure nervous here. This morning it looked like we were out of the cone, and now we are back in. Be safe everyone.

[DFD1]

www.crownweather.com has some good 4 color graphics. Click on Triopical Weather then scroll way down the page. Lots of information.

 

Does not look good for west coast of Florida and the panhandle.

 

We had lots of rain last night and this morning from Cindy, but clear here now.

Chattanooga

[vicocala]

DFD1,

 

 

Great link, I hope everyone just goes there for their updates. Everything you could look for on one page. I am concerned that some of the projected paths are as far east as Tallahassee, that is getting a bit to close for comfort. I expect we will get at least a little wind and probably a lot of rain.

 

I am also concerned looking at the wind flows and how their is a trough dropping into the central gulf, that could help push the system eastward as well.:eek:

 

Thanks to your wider range view of the Atlantic there is a huge tropical wave making its way off the African coast. It is a bit early for those too. Things are not looking the best for this season. :mad:

[Sage]

Vicocala,

 

Who would have thought we would have to worry so being inland. I agree that I don't like the looks of it pushing any further to the east. Take care and stay safe everyone.

[vicocala]

Sage,

 

 

Are you going to school in Gainesville? Just curious.

 

I have lived in Florida for 21 years and have seen some funny doins. I never take it for granted, because we are such a narrow state. At least being inland we don't have to worry about storm surge, just rain, wind, flooding, tornados, etc. no biggie. :p

 

Last year was a wierd one and this year isn't starting much better. Hopefully the early stuff means we won't get the later stuff, but no guarantees on that.

[Sage]

Thanks for asking, but no, I'm not here for school, but my DD did graduate UF last year. We have lived here for about 24 years, and this is uncharted territory for us. We have never seen a year like last year, but I guess our education is not over yet, as this year is breaking new ground as well. I was in a bad hurricane when I was 2, and I still remember the sound of the wind and my Mother's fear, so I don't do to well with these storms. In fact, I'm something of a chicken. Stay safe, and I wish all of us well here in Florida.

[Oceanwench]

Dennis is a Cat 3 and our weather forecasters are saying it could become a Cat 4 in 6-12 hours.

 

Most of us in South Florida will get wind and rain over the weekend -- just not sure how much.

 

We're glad we had storm shutters installed this spring! After experiencing last year's B2B hurricanes in September, we want to be prepared for future storms.

 

Stay safe everyone!

[cruznon]

Hope all of you in Florida will be Ok with Dennis. It must be nerve-racking to watch the storm approach, change directions, wind speeds, etc.

As a Californian, earthquakes arrive suddenly, without warning...I think that's easier to handle.

You're all in our thoughts and prayers. Stay safe, everyone.

[vicocala]

Thanks Cruznon, Being inland, I take it more in stride. We can have damage but nothing like those directly on the coasts. Right now we are forcast for 20 MPH winds. I am happy with that if it holds. The problem is the unpredictability and often there is power loss over a widespread area. I like my airconditioning and have become addicted to my computer so powerloss is usually my greatest fear and discomfort.

 

I love the ocean, but I can't get my wife to live near it, so we compromised and bought a timeshare, at least I can live by the ocean once in a while. LOL

[vicocala]

:eek: HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

 

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MEASURED 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL

WINDS OF 134 KT IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL AT 07/2314Z...AND ALSO

REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF DENNIS HAD DROPPED TO 951 MB.

SINCE THAT TIME...THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF DENNIS HAS NOT CHANGED

SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED ON THIS AND ON 115 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB...DENNIS IS UPGRADED TO A CATEGORY FOUR

HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. DENNIS MAY HAVE

UNDERGONE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS

THE 9 N MI WIDE EYE SEEN EARLIER IS NOW 16 TO 20 N MI WIDE. IT

SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 950 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE IS AN ESTIMATE AND

COULD WELL BE TOO HIGH.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310-315 AT ABOUT 13 KT. DATA FROM A

TWO-AIRCRAFT SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION SHOWS THAT A

MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED ALONG 26N OVER

FLOIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO

PRESENT...BUT IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER. GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD

AGREEMENT THAT DENNIS SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR

ABOUT 24 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE...WITH THE

UKMET TAKING DENNIS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD LOUISIANA...THE CANADIAN

TAKING DENNIS NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...AND THE

OTHER GUIDANCE IN BETWEEN. THE GFDL HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT LEFT FROM

ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHILE THE GFS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE

RIGHT IN THE FIRST 36 HR AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT THEREAFTER. AS

DENNIS HAS NOT YET DEVIATED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...THE

NEW FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THAT TRACK THROUGH THE FIRST

36 HR. AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE

LEFT...WEST...AND LIES ALONG THE RIGHT EDGE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF

GUIDANCE.

 

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. IN THE SHORT TERM...DENNIS

COULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL THE CORE ENCOUNTERS CENTRAL

CUBA...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AFTER

THAT...SEVERAL FACTORS COME INTO PLAY. THESE INCLUDE...WILL THE

CURRENTLY TIGHTLY WOUND CORE OF DENNIS SURVIVE PASSAGE ACROSS

LAND...WHAT CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES MAY OCCUR...AND HOW MUCH

ENERGY IS AVAILABLE IN THE WARM...BUT THIN...SURFACE LAYER OF THE

GULF OF MEXICO. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGEST THAT THE OCEANIC HEAT

CONTENT WILL DECREASE AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWARD...CAUSING THE STORM

TO WEAKEN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL AND GFDN BOTH CALL FOR

SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE GULF. THE INTENSITY FORECAST

WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.

[vicocala]

Getting showers and thunderstorms this afternoon from a cell that moved northwest from the Port Canaveral area. We are expecting winds Saturday night to increase to 35 MPH and we are well inland.

 

 

According to reports the pier at Key West has been closed and their are mandatory evacuations for the Keys. Zuiderdam skipped Key West and is expecting to sail at normal times tomorrow for next weeks cruise, this per CC news.

 

Dennis is still currently packing winds of 145 MPH and has moved inland over Cuba and is expected to exit east of Havana and move into the Florida Straits later tonight.

 

Best wishes to all and I hope we here about some of this weeks experiences when the cruisers get home.

[vicocala]

Dennis Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 14 Mph...23 Km/hr. On

This Track...the Center Should Pass Near Havana And Matanzas And

Emerge Into The Straits Of Florida During The Next Few Hours.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Decreased To Near 115 Mph...185

Km/hr...with Higher Gusts. This Makes Dennis A Category 3

Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson Scale. Some Further Weakening

Is Possible While The Center Remains Over Cuba. However...dennis Is

Expected To Regain Major Hurricane Status As It Emerges Over The

Straits Of Florida And The Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico.

 

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 65 Miles...100 Km...

From The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up

To 160 Miles...260 Km. Winds Continue To Increase In The Florida

Keys...with The Noaa Automated Station At Sombrero Key Recently

Reported Sustained Winds Of 59 Mph With A Gust To 67 Mph At An

Elevation Of 160 Feet.

[vicocala]

At 11 Pm Edt...0300z...the Center Of Hurricane Dennis Was Located

Near Latitude 23.0 North...longitude 82.1 West Or About 20

Miles... 30 Km...east Of Havana Cuba And About 110 Miles... 180

Km...south Of Key West Florida.

 

Dennis Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 14 Mph...22 Km/hr... And

This General Motion Is Expected To Continue For The Next 24 Hours.

This Motion Should Bring The Center Of Dennis Near Havana And Into

The Striats Of Florida During The Next Few Hours...then Near The

Dry Tortugas On Saturday Morning.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Decreased To Near 110 Mph...175

Km/hr...with Higher Gusts. Dennis Is A Category Two Hurricane On

The Saffir-simpson Scale. However...it Is Expected To Re-intensify

Into A Major Hurricane Upon Reaching The Straits Of Florida.

 

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 65 Miles...100 Km...

From The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up

To 175 Miles...280 Km. Key West Florida Recently Reported Sustained

Winds Of 44 Mph With A Gust To 54 Mph. Tropical-storm Force Wind

Gusts Are Also Occurring In Squalls As Far North As The Miami Area.

 

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 962 Mb...28.41 Inches.

 

Dennis Is Expected To Produce Total Rainfall Accumulations Of 4 To 8

Inches Across The Central And Southern Florida Peninsula...and The

Florida Keys. Additional Rain Accumulations Of 3 To 6 Inches Are

Expected Over Cuba And Cayman Islands...with Isolated Maximum Storm

Total Amounts Of 15 Inches Possible. These Rains Could Produce

Life-threatening Flash Floods And Mudslides.

[vicocala]

Dennis has cleared Cuba with winds in the 100 MPH area and is expected to regenerate into at least a catagory three storm which is classified as a major hurricane. Dennis is expected to drop 4-6" of rain over south and central Florida as it progresses to the NW. Western panhandle of Florida to Mobile are the most likely areas to see landfall as the hurricane has stayed on a remarkably steady course both in direction and in speed.

[vicocala]

Winds have diminished to 90 MPH as no strengthening has yet begun. According to the hurricane center it takes twelve to twenty four hours for a hurricane to recover from land interaction, if it does at all. They are still expecting some intensification, but if we are fortunate it will be to little to late as it comes closer to the mainland.

[vicocala]

Dennis continues to swirl in the SE gulf, no changes in forward speed (14 MPH) or direction (NW). Winds are up to 100 MPH and is expected to strengthen to a CAT 3 Hurricane again before landfall, most likely Sunday night.

 

 

Heavy rainbands are moving thru the Tampa area, while Orlando and Ocala remain in a slot of temporarily drier weather. That should change as rainbands continue to rotate around the center.

 

The far western panhandle to Mobile is the most likely areas of landfall.

[vicocala]

At 5 Pm Edt...the Eye Of Hurricane Dennis Was Located Near

Latitude 25.7 North...longitude 84.6 West Or About 320 Miles

South-southeast Of Panama City Florida. Dennis Is Moving Toward The

Northwest Near 14 Mph...and This Motion Is Expected To Continue

During The Next 24 Hours With A Gradual Turn To The North Northwest

Beginning Tonight. Maximum Sustained Winds Have Increased To 105

Mph...with Higher Gusts. Some Gradual Strengthening Is Forecast

During The Next 24 Hours. Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To

40 Miles From The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend

Outward Up To 175 Miles. The Minimum Central Pressure Reported By An

Air Force Reconnaissance Aircraft Has Decreased To 955 Mb Or 28.20

Inches.

 

...wind Impacts...

Based On The Current Forecast Track...winds Will Increase To Near

Tropical Storm Force Overnight Along The Coast From Tyndall Air

Force Base To St George Island...and Extend By Sunrise From Destin

To Shell Point. Gusts To Hurricane Force Winds Could Reach The Coast

Late Sunday Morning. Tropical Storm Force And Eventually Hurricane

Force Winds Will Push Inland Over The Florida Panhandle Sunday

Afternoon. If The Track Of Dennis Turns Slightly To The East...the

Florida Big Bend Could Receive Hurricane Force Winds.

[vicocala]

Here in Ocala we are getting a decent band with a lot of thunder and lightening although the winds are not real strong. Tornados are the biggest concern here.

 

Here is the latests from the National Hurricane Center:

 

HURRICANE DENNIS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

7 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

 

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 2 HOURS MAKES! AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE

HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF DENNIS DROPPED 11

MB IN AN HOUR AND A HALF. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED

N OF THE CENTER WERE 105 KT...AND THERE WERE LIKELY STRONGER WINDS

IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT THAT THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT SAMPLE.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPGRADES DENNIS TO A 100 KT CATEGORY 3

HURRICANE BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA.

 

THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. IT IS

UNCLEAR HOW LONG THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE...BUT

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS REVISED TO SHOW 12 HR OF RAPID

STRENGTHENING FOLLOWED BY SLOWER STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL. THE

NEW INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS DENNIS ASHORE AS A CATEGORY 4

HURRICANE. AFTER-LANDFALL INTENSITIES WERE ALSO INCREASED THROUGH

72 HR TO REFLECT THE INCREASED LANDFALL INTENSITY.

[vicocala]

Winds continue at 125 MPH and hurricane winds are expected to be felt up to 150 miles inland after landfall. The general course continues to bring Dennis into Pennsacola area tomorrow. The expectation is that the storm will reach cat 4 status tonight or tomorrow.

[vicocala]

At 1 Am Edt...0500z...the Center Of Hurricane Dennis Was Located

Near Latitude 27.0 North...longitude 85.6 West Or About 235 Miles

South Of Panama City Florida And About 310 Miles Southeast Of

Biloxi Mississippi.

 

Dennis Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 14 Mph. A Gradual Turn

Toward The North-northwest Is Expected Today. This Motion Will

Bring The Center Of Dennis Across The Northern Gulf Coast Later

Today.

 

Reports From An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Indicate

That Maximum Sustained Winds Have Increased To Near 135 Mph...with

Higher Gusts. This Makes Dennis A Category Four Hurricane On The

Saffir-simpson Scale. Some Additional Strengthening Is Possible

Before Landfall.

 

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 40 Miles From The

Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 230

Miles. Hurricane Force Winds Associated With Dennis May Occur As

Far As 150 To 175 Miles Inland Along The Track Of The Hurricane.

[vicocala]

At 300 Am Edt...the Center Of Hurricane Dennis Was Located Near

Latitude 27.4 North...longitude 85.9 West...or About 330 Miles

Northwest Of Key West. Maximum Sustained Winds Have Increased To 145

Mph...with Higher Gusts. Dennis Is Now A Category Four Hurricane On

The Saffir-simpson Scale. Some Fluctuations In Strength Are Likely

Before This Extremely Dangerous Hurricane Makes Landfall On The

Northern Gulf Coast Later Today. Dennis Is Moving Toward The

Northwest Near 14 Mph. A Gradual Turn Towards The North-northwest Is

Expected Later Today. The Minimum Central Pressure Was Measured At

934 Mb...or 27.58 Inches Of Mercury.

[vicocala]

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER ARE NOW OCCURRING

ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTS. HURRICANE

FORCE WINDS...75 MPH OR GREATER...WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA BY

NOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO

POSSIBLY BE A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. THIS WOULD RESULT IN

EXTREME DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO

THE INLAND COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS BEING NEAR

THE CENTER AND JUST TO THE EAST OF DENNIS. AFTER LANDFALL...THE

CENTER OF DENNIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS BALDWIN...

CLARKE...CHOCTAW....ESCAMBIA AND MONROE COUNTIES OF ALABAMA THIS

AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COUNTIES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED

SHOULD REMAIN ABREAST OF THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST AS UPDATES

OCCUR. EXTENSIVE TO EXTREME TORNADO-LIKE WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE

AROUND...AND ESPECIALLY JUST TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF DENNIS' EYE AS

IT MOVES INLAND. THE WINDS FROM DENNIS WOULD BE MUCH HIGHER THAN

HURRICANE IVAN OF 2004.:eek: