Rare crewsweeper Posted September 10, 2013 #1 Share Posted September 10, 2013 While its current track looks like it might head straight to Miami, forecasts are for it to not be a threat to land at all and may be only a hurricane for a few hours or a day. satellite images indicate that Humberto has stopped intensifying... at least for the moment. Recent microwave data showed that the storm had a small microwave eye overnight...but that feature has since dissolved and has been replaced by a larger but broken inner band of convection. In some sense...this suggests an eyewall replacement...except that Humberto is still a tropical storm. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt based on a consensus of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Humberto has maintained a motion of 295/8 kt...but the storm is expected to turn northwestward later today due to a weakening Azores high to the north. Two deep-layered lows are forecast to develop north of the Canary Islands and over the central Atlantic over the next couple of days. These features...along with a ridge extending westward from north Africa...should steer Humberto northward in about 36 hours. High pressure is forecast to rebuild north of Humberto by days 4 and 5...which should turn the cyclone westward by the end of the forecast period. Confidence in this forecast is high since there is very little spread in the track guidance...and no significant changes to the official forecast were required on this cycle. Once the inner core of Humberto reorganizes...there is a window of about 36 to 48 hours for additional strengthening before vertical shear increases and the storm reaches a more hostile thermodynamic environment. The official forecast continues to show Humberto reaching hurricane strength later today...but the forecast peak intensity in a day or two has been adjusted downward just a bit based on the latest intensity guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare crewsweeper Posted September 11, 2013 Author #2 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Offically the First hurricane of 2013! As of 9-11-13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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