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CP this weekend??


matward

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We are supposed to sail this weekend on CP. Looks as if Emily is going to make things interesting. If she becomes a Hurricane the projected path is right up Cuba's snout! East then is bad...West is bad....where do we go and will we be just out of luck on a good time???? I am not the best "rock the boat" person when it involves the ocean doing the rocking...any advice and words of encouragement?:eek:

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Very few cruises are actually cancelled because of hurricanes. Normally, the captain will find a route that will give you the least amount of bad weather.

On one cruise (when we were to cruise the western caribbean) the captain reversed our ports to avoid a hurricane. We had beautiful weather the entire 7 days.

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I'd say the likelyhood that we won't sail this weekend is basically nil.

 

Emily is tracking quite far south of FLL and the Bahamas at this point and she's not yet strengthened to hurricane status, though that is soon to change from what I'm reading. Current track now has her south of Jamaica and the Cayman's, however the current projection is on a direct path for Cozumel. Evidently a rather strong high pressure system has built of the SE states and is keeping the system pushed south.

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/025654.shtml?5day?large (note that this graphic is updated every 6 hours at 0500, 1100, 1700, and 2300)

 

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200505_model.html (This is the potential path as predicted by the various computer models. Note that most of them are showing the storm to track ever further south than what NOAA is showing)

 

There's another tropical wave just off Africa that bears some watching as well. It may form into a tropical depression in the next couple of days and might affect us next week, but I'd say it's far too early to tell at this point.

 

The forecast for both FLL and the Bahamas are pretty good for Saturday and Sunday--sunny with scattered t-storms, but that's pretty typical for the summer, hurricane or no hurricane. If worst comes to worst, then let's go sail and eastern itenterary and go around the back side of this storm!

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All CB's going west(?) this weekend will now know that Emily has become a Hurricane.:( At this point it all depends on where she goes and how fast. My guess is that it will go just south of Jamaica which is not good. My understanding of Hurricanes(which is not much) is that the worst place to be is just north of the eye. Still too early to tell. I think we all need to hope that Emily continues on her westward track as long as possible and stays south of all our ports of call.

 

If not, two factors come into play:

1) How much damage does Emily leave behind and

2) How fast does she clear the area

If she moves fast enough, we could follow her at about a 2 days lag and if there is not too much damage, we still could make our western trip.

 

Question is this:

1) Would you all like to follow Emily and deal with what she leaves behind?

2) Would you all like to just do the Eastern route and not worry about it?

 

I would like to hear your thoughts....

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