90l / 91 l

[Hurricane Expert]

Two strong tropical waves are in the Atlantic. One is likely to turn into the central Atlantic open waters. The second may be a little farther south.... Plenty of time to watch them, they are a long ways out!

[CFD130]

A question-Once something forms off the African coast Aprx how long until that system is approaching the Caribbean?

Thanks

[Hurricane Expert]

A question-Once something forms off the African coast Aprx how long until that system is approaching the Caribbean?

Thanks

 

About a week if it approaches the Caribbean. Many of the Cape Verde systems track northeast from the Caribbean.

[CFD130]

Thanks

[johnnypiano]

Any update on 91L? Going to Bermuda next week!

[Hurricane Expert]

Any update on 91L? Going to Bermuda next week!

 

 

Early forecasts suggest it moving east of Bermuda. I am very cautious about trusting forecasts before the low has actually formed though.

[mykekid]

How's this thing shaping up? And what do you figure the timing of it will be?

[Hurricane Expert]

How's this thing shaping up? And what do you figure the timing of it will be?

 

 

Only 91L is left. It is still predicted to move safely east of Bermuda by early next week.

[mykekid]

Thanks for the input!

[OCruisers]

Rich, thanks as always for keeping us updated!

LuLu

[bhanback]

Yes, many thanks to you Rich....I am leaving Sunday the 21 from Baltimore and am nervously watching the tropics!

[johnnypiano]

Per the National Hurricane Center this morning:

 

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure

centered about 750 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands has become

better organized during the past several hours. If current trends

continue, a tropical depression could form later today or tonight

while the low moves toward the west-northwest and northwest at about

15 mph over the open Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

 

Looks like it's tracking towards Bermuda!

 

[mykekid]

From reports I'm seeing this front is expected to take a "northwestward curl into the central Atlantic". Hopefully that puts it well east of us.

 

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[OCruisers]

Rich, is the Red X 91L?

LuLu

[Hurricane Expert]

Rich, is the Red X 91L?

LuLu

 

 

Yes. Models have been very persistent taking it east of Bermuda. It is now tropical depression 6.

Edited September 11, 2014 by Hurricane Expert

[crewsweeper]

The 92L over the Northwest Bahamas, might bring some wet weather to cruisers coming and going out of Eastern Florida ports on Saturday and going out of Tampa on Sunday. Don't plan on a sunny Lido deck bon-voyage party.:rolleyes: But if it develops over the Gulf at all, it'll be on land by mid week, so should not affect NOLA and Galveston cruisers.

[johnnypiano]

It looks like our friend Edouard (f/k/a 91L) is still predicted to turn to the north sometime in the next few days and have no impact on Bermuda....

Edited September 12, 2014 by johnnypiano

[Hurricane Expert]

The 92L over the Northwest Bahamas, might bring some wet weather to cruisers coming and going out of Eastern Florida ports on Saturday and going out of Tampa on Sunday. Don't plan on a sunny Lido deck bon-voyage party.:rolleyes: But if it develops over the Gulf at all, it'll be on land by mid week, so should not affect NOLA and Galveston cruisers.

 

 

Models are wishy - washy on this one so, I wouldn't be sure of anything yet.

[webbersworld]

Rich - any new thoughts on 91L?

[Hurricane Expert]

Rich - any new thoughts on 91L?

 

 

Nothing new. Edouard (91L) Still predicted to become a hurricane and recurve east of Bermuda.

Edited September 13, 2014 by Hurricane Expert

[Hurricane Expert]

Edouard is definitely a hurricane now and should be upgraded by NHC at 11 am edt.

[pepsishot]

Edouard is definitely a hurricane now and should be upgraded by NHC at 11 am edt.

 

 

Any idea of what this might mean for those of us sailing the eastern Caribbean next Sunday? First cruise for me and I'm trying not to worry but can't help myself with my lack of understanding as I don't live in an area where they are ever a concern.

 

 

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[Hurricane Expert]

Any idea of what this might mean for those of us sailing the eastern Caribbean next Sunday? First cruise for me and I'm trying not to worry but can't help myself with my lack of understanding as I don't live in an area where they are ever a concern.

 

Nothing on the horizon at this point. BTW, Edouard is much stronger than the official 80 mph.... at least 100 mph imo.

[pepsishot]

Nothing on the horizon at this point. BTW, Edouard is much stronger than the official 80 mph.... at least 100 mph imo.

 

 

Thanks for letting me know.

 

 

 

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[Hurricane Expert]

I may have misread your post. Edouard will not affect the caribbean. It is going out to the middle of the atlantic. At this time the models aren't showing anything for the eastern caribbean a week out. That is still on the edge of forecasts that I trust.