TD #16 (Ophelia)

[vicocala]

Bulletin

Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 11

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Pm Edt Thu Sep 08 2005

 

...ophelia Continuing To Meander Off The Florida Coast...

 

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For The East Coast Of

Florida From Sebastian Inlet Northward To Flagler Beach. A Tropical

Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected

Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.

 

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For The Northeast Florida

Coast From North Of Flagler Beach To Fernandina Beach. A Tropical

Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible

Within The Watch Area Within The Next 36 Hours.

 

Interests Elsewhere In Northern And Central Florida...and The

Southeastern United States Coast...should Monitor The Progress Of

Ophelia.

 

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

 

At 11 Pm Edt...0300z...the Center Of Hurricane Ophelia Was Located

Near Latitude 28.7 North...longitude 79.3 West Or About 80

Miles... 130 Km...east-northeast Of Cape Canaveral Florida.

 

Ophelia Is Nearly Stationary. A Northeastward Drift Is Expected On

Friday.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 75 Mph...120 Km/hr...with Higher

Gusts. Ophelia Is A Category One Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson

Scale. Slow Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours.

 

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 25 Miles... 35 Km...

From The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up

To 80 Miles...130 Km.

 

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 990 Mb...29.23 Inches.

 

Ophelia Is Expected To Produce Total Rainfall Accumulations Of 1 To

3 Inches Across Portions Of Central And Northern Florida.

 

Repeating The 11 Pm Edt Position...28.7 N... 79.3 W. Movement

...stationary. Maximum Sustained

Winds... 75 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 990 Mb.

 

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National

Hurricane Center At 2 Am Edt Followed By The Next

Complete Advisory At 5 Am Edt.

 

Forecaster Beven

[vicocala]

The center of the storm has moved northward to a latitude between Ocala and Gainesville or roughly between Daytona and St. Augustine and is moving NNE. The tracks still look like a bowl of spaghetti though so anything could still happen. It looks more likely if it does loop back to the states to be a threat more to Georgia or the Carolinas so anyone returning to or leaving Jacksonville or Charleston on their cruises should be watchful. Here is the official forecast as of 8:00 AM:

 

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

8 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

 

...OPHELIA MOVING LITTLE...

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF

FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND A

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH

TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

 

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT

115 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

 

OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE FEW HOURS BUT A SLOW

MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

OPHELIA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE OVER THE

NEXT DAY OR SO.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE

CENTER.

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

 

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER

COASTAL SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.

 

A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXISTS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA

AND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.

 

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...29.3 N... 79.1 W. MOVEMENT

NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM

CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

11 AM EDT.

 

FORECASTER AVILA

[Sage]

Thanks Vicocala. It looks as though she will be hanging around a while longer.

[vicocala]

Sage, you are welcome. Looks like the NHS agrees with what I posted earlier:

 

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

 

OPHELIA IS A PECULIAR CYCLONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM

ALL AGENCIES INDICATE THAT OPHELIA IS A HURRICANE AND THE LATEST

MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 983

MB. NORMALLY...THIS VALUE WOULD CORRESPOND TO A SYSTEM OF HURRICANE

STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND THE MAXIMUM

SURFACE WINDS MEASURED BY THE SFMR ON BOARD OF THE PLANE ARE 65

KNOTS AND 49 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY

IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE DROP

IN PRESSURE...OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE

NEXT 12 HOURS.

 

OPHELIA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030

DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND THE CYCLONE

IS LOCATED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS

TROUGH WILL BRING OPHELIA SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FOR ABOUT A

DAY OR TWO. THEN...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO

DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE

OPHELIA WESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE U.S. COAST.

ONE BY ONE...RELIABLE MODELS HAVE BEEN CHANGING THEIR TUNE TO MIMIC

THE GFDL...AND UNANIMOUSLY BRING OPHELIA BACK TO THE UNITED

STATES IN ABOUT 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN CHANGING BACK

AND FORTH...HAS BROUGHT OPHELIA BACK TOWARD THE COAST FOR THE PAST

TWO RUNS. THIS MODEL CONSENSUS IS THE BASIS TO BRING OPHELIA AS A

HURRICANE TOWARD THE GEORGIA OR SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IN ABOUT 4

DAYS.

 

BECAUSE OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE U.S. COAST EAST...

THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. NEW WATCHES AND

WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.

 

FORECASTER AVILA

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 09/1500Z 29.5N 78.9W 55 KT

12HR VT 10/0000Z 30.0N 78.5W 65 KT

24HR VT 10/1200Z 30.6N 78.0W 70 KT

36HR VT 11/0000Z 31.0N 77.4W 70 KT

48HR VT 11/1200Z 30.5N 77.5W 70 KT

72HR VT 12/1200Z 31.0N 78.5W 75 KT

96HR VT 13/1200Z 31.5N 80.0W 75 KT

120HR VT 14/1200Z 33.5N 81.5W 30 KT...INLAND

[esther e]

Thanks, Vic, for everything. Can I let my breath out now or do I need to keep holding it??? At the moment, we are experiencing torrential downpours, then nothing, and 5 minutes later back to downpours. Kinda makes me want to stay home today and not go to the mall!!!!:(

Esther

[vicocala]

ester,

 

You are welcome, I would hold it until it comes ashore. These things are fickle which is why mariners originally named them after women. :p

[m steve]

There has been so much rain in Ocala recently it's hard to tell whether there are crickets or frogs in the overflow basins there. What part of Ocala do you live in?

[vicocala]

M Steve,

 

 

Not sure what you mean about telling without a weather report, that is mostly what I have been posting. :confused: I live in East Ocala near Silver Springs. You?

 

The current tracks are taking it into the Carolinas so we shall see how it ends up. This afternoon has been partly cloudy here after a brief early shower this morning.

 

Here is the latest tropical discussion:

 

 

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

 

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND OBJECTIVE

T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT OPHELIA HAS A CLOUD PATTERN

ASSOCIATED WITH A HURRICANE. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE RECENTLY

MEASURED 983 MB...72-KNOT WINDS AT 700 MB...A FEW 62-KNOT WINDS

MEASURED BY THE SFMR AND A 10-N MI DIAMETER CIRCULAR EYE. FOR

ACADEMICS...PERHAPS IT IS NECESSARY TO HAVE ONE OR TWO MORE KNOTS

TO MAKE A OPHELIA A HURRICANE...BUT THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE

OFFICIAL INITIAL INTENSITY...SO OPHELIA IS A 65-KNOT HURRICANE NOW.

THE SHEAR MAY INCREASE A LITTLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT A MORE

FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER

OPHELIA...ONCE THE HURRICANE BEGINS ITS WESTWARD TURN. A GRADUAL

STRENGHTENING IS INDICATED...BUT OPHELIA IS KEPT AS A CATEGORY ONE

HURRICANE. HOWEVER...TO ERR BY ONE OR TWO CATEGORIES IS NOT

IMPOSSIBLE...DUE TO OUR LACK OF SKILL IN FORECASTING RAPID

INTENSITY CHANGE.

 

OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS

AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST

TO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED BY A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE

NORTH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE OPHELIA TO STOP AND THEN TURN

TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. HOW FAR WEST THE HURRICANE WILL GO

DEPENDS ON THE ABILITY OF EACH MODEL IN FORECASTING THE INTENSITY

OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF OPHELIA. WE ARE PUTTING ALL THE BETS IN

THE FORMATION OF THE HIGH AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A

TURN TOWARD THE U.S. COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT

GOING AS FAR WEST AND SOUTH AS THE GFDL AND NOT AS FAR NORTH AND

EAST AS THE GFS. IN FACT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE

CONSENSUS AND BRINGS THE HURRICANE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IN

ABOUT 3 DAYS OR SO.

 

FORECASTER AVILA

[esther e]

ester,

 

You are welcome, I would hold it until it comes ashore. These things are fickle which is why mariners originally named them after women.

 

Ahem.....Charley, Ivan, Andrew, Dennis....If they went to "V", would we have Vic???? :rolleyes: We women aren't fickle; we know what we want. You men just don't know how to interpert us!!!!!:D

 

Esther

"

[vicocala]

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 17

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Am Edt Sat Sep 10 2005

 

An Air Force Plane Just Reported 976 Mb And Measured 78 Knots At 700

Mb. Therefore...the Initial Intensity Has Been Increased To 70

Knots. The Environment Ahead Of Ophelia Is Only Marginally

Favorable For Strengthening. Therefore...only Slight Increase In

Intensity Is Indicated In The Forecast.

 

Ophelia Has Slowed Down And Is Now Moving Toward The Northeast Or

040 Degrees At 3 Knots. The Track Forecast Has Not Changed...with

High Pressure Expected To Develop North Of The Hurricane. This

Pattern Would Force Ophelia To Move On A West-northwest Track In

About 12 To 24 Hours. Thereafter...the Hurricane Should Continue

Toward The Southeast U.s. Coast As Indicated In Previous Forecasts.

Track Models Have Not Changed Either So There Is Not Much To Add.

 

Ophelia Has A Large Area Of Tropical Storm Force Winds...and These

Winds May Be Approaching The Coast Earlier Than The Center Of The

Hurricane.

 

Forecaster Avila

[vicocala]

Ester,

 

They started naming them after men too with all the womens lib crap. :p

 

I would have to go back and look at the names, but this year, if memory serves, the "V" name would be Vince. I hope we don't get there.

[esther e]

YOU AND ME TOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Esther

[HeatherInFlorida]

ester,

 

................ These things are fickle which is why mariners originally named them after women. :p

 

Vic, Vic, Vic, Vic, Vic .... tsk tsk ... why, whatever could you mean? You're surely not suggesting that women are fickle?

 

The funniest part about this whole "naming" thing is that there was a group last year who were offended that it didn't appear to them that names from their ethnic group were used ..... as if it was some sort of honor!!! Who on earth wants a hurricane named after them???:confused:

 

Anyway ... I've decided that Jacksonville area is the place to be. The way Ophelia skirted and twisted and turned just not to hit Jacksonville is amazing. I've read that no hurricane has ever hit Jacksonville directly. So that's where I think we should be heading:D .

[esther e]

Heather

 

Could be because of the jet stream. Our theory, anyway. If you decide to wander up this way, let me know!!!

 

Esther

[Oceanwench]

Heather: It doesn't have to be a direct hit to get you into a lot of trouble! Look at the damage in Vero and Sebastian ... and the hurricanes made landfall down in Stuart! [bTW, Boca Raton people like to brag that a storm has never directly hit their town!]

 

That's why I was asking our Central Florida friends how they fared during last year's storms.

 

Vic: Sounds like Ocala did well, with 40-45 mph winds. Ours were more than twice as strong! It's a sound I don't want to hear again.

 

Jim: I knew Orlando had a lot of damage. But since the storms made landfall here [stuart area] and destroyed quite a few homes, hotels, roads, etc., there was not a lot of coverage of Orlando's woes. Sorry to hear your losses were so high. Ours were under $6,000 and we are only 25 miles from where Jeanne and Francis made landfall.

[HeatherInFlorida]

I know that, Oceanwench, but I've been reading a lot about this phenomenon in the Jacksonville corridor. Hurricanes look like they may go there and suddenly just don't. Could be the jetstream, the gulfstream or the curvature there, but when I said "direct hit", I meant it has not suffered greatly ever from any hurricane. If I'm wrong, someone can correct me. I'm just going by a lot of information I've come across over the past year.

 

I've spoken with one person who has lived in Jacksonville all her life and she said they have had twisters spawned by hurricanes and some damage, but nothing major such as we have seen in almost every other part of Florida.

 

I know that I cannot live anywhere in Florida and totally avoid hurricanes ... stupid I'm not;) . But I would like to be in the best area possible yet still be able to drive to the Atlantic.

 

Esther, I sure will let you know:) . We have to get up to the area and look around. I've seen a lot of info on Cartesian Point (KB Homes). But unfortunately we can't move for awhile.

[esther e]

Heather

Herel.'s my email address: pwagner2@cfl.rr.com. Looking forward to hearing from you....whenever!

Esther

[vicocala]

Heather,

 

At least in Ocala we don't worry about storm surge. Which is actually the biggest problem. :)

 

Here is the latest forecast, although most of the models seem to keep it out to sea right now:

 

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005

 

SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE EVENING SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER

OF OPHELIA HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE

CONVECTION. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER

AIRCRAFT INDICATE A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 977-978 MB AND AN EYEWALL

OPEN IN THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB

ARE 79 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...WHILE EYEWALL DROPSONDES IN

THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS INDICATED 60-65 KT SURFACE

WINDS. SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS ESSENTIALLY IDENTICAL TO THE

PREVIOUS FLIGHT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT.

 

OPHELIA HAS DRIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST 6

HR BUT IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES

LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGES CENTERED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE AND

NEAR 25N57W...WITH OPHELIA IN BETWEEN. THE LATEST LARGE-SCALE

MODEL RUNS FORECAST THIS COMBINATION TO KEEP OPHELIA NEARLY

STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW GENERALLY

NORTHWARD MOTION AS THE U. S. RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE

ALTANTIC. THE GUIDANCE IS STILL WELL SPREAD...WITH THE LEFT

OUTLIERS OF THE GFDN AND THE CANADIAN CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTH

CAROLINA AND THE RIGHT OUTLIERS OF THE GFS AND GFDL CALLING FOR THE

STORM TO PASS EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS

SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS

PACKAGE...AND IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MAIN ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE.

THE NEW TRACK HAS A SMALL LOOP IN THE FIRST 24-36 HR...AS MUCH OF

THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OPHELIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING PART

OF THAT TIME.

 

OPHELIA CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR...

AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR WEST OF THE CYCLONE.

THESE HAVE PROBABLY ERODED THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE TO SOME DEGREE.

HOWEVER...THE LARGEST FACTOR CONTROLLING THE INTENSITY IS LIKELY TO

BE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UPWELLING OF COLD WATER UNDERNEATH

THE SLOW-MOVING STORM. NOAA BUOY 41002 LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE

CENTER IS REPORTING AN SST OF 27.2C...AND A DRIFTING BUOY SOUTH OF

THE CENTER IS REPORTING 24.4C...DOWN ALMOST 3C FROM BEFORE OPHELIA

PASSED OVER IT. ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA...SSTS ARE BETWEEN 27-28C

EXCEPT IN THE RELATIVELY NARROW GULF STREAM. SHOULD OPHELIA MOVE

AS SLOWLY AS FORECAST...IT MAY UPWELL ENOUGH COLD WATER TO SUPPRESS

DEVELOPMENT. THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND SUPERENSEMBLE ALL SHOW A

LITTLE STRENGTHENING THROUGH 30 HR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST

FOLLOWS SUIT. HOWEVER...THOSE MODELS ALL FORECAST WEAKENING AFTER

36-48 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET FOLLOW THAT

SCENARIO...BUT IT IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.

 

THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST

U. S. COAST WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. IF OPHELIA IS TO BEGIN A

TRACK LIKE THAT OF THE GFDN OR CANADIAN TOWARD SOUTH CAROLINA...IT

SHOULD HAPPEN WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HR. THEREFORE...IT IS TOO

EARLY TO SOUND AN ALL CLEAR FOR ANY PART OF THE AREA CURRENTLY

UNDER THE HURRICANE WATCH.

 

FORECASTER BEVEN

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 11/0300Z 31.8N 75.8W 70 KT

12HR VT 11/1200Z 31.7N 75.8W 70 KT

24HR VT 12/0000Z 31.7N 76.1W 75 KT

36HR VT 12/1200Z 32.0N 76.4W 75 KT

48HR VT 13/0000Z 32.4N 76.7W 75 KT

72HR VT 14/0000Z 33.5N 77.5W 75 KT

96HR VT 15/0000Z 35.5N 76.5W 45 KT...INLAND

120HR VT 16/0000Z 38.0N 73.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER

[vicocala]

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 21

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Am Edt Sun Sep 11 2005

 

Air Force Reconnaissance Observations Over The Last Few Hours Showed

Maximum Flight-level Winds Of 74 Kt...with Little Change In Central

Pressure. The Current Intensity Is Reduced Slightly...to 70 Kt.

The System Appears Well Organized And Vertical Shear Is Not

Expected To Become Prohibitively Strong During The Next Few Days.

Two Factors Mitigating Against Intensification Are The Presence Of

Dry Air...as Evidenced By Surface Observations From South Carolina

And North Carolina Showing Dew Points In The Low Sixties...and

Cooler Waters Upwelled Beneath This Slow-moving Hurricane. Ophelia

Is Likely To Traverse A Section Of The Gulf Stream Over The Next

Few Days... However...which Would Favor Some Intensification.

Given These Mixed Signals...the Official Forecast Does Not Call For

A Significant Change In Strength. This Is Very Similar To The

Latest Ships Forecast As Well.

 

Ophelia Continues Stuck Between Two Mid-level High Pressure

Areas...and Unable To Make Contact With The Westerlies. Little

Change In This Steering...or Lack Of Steering...regime Is Likely

For The Next Day Or Two. By Around 72 Hours...global Model

Guidance Shows A Large Mid-latitude Trough Advancing Into The

Central United States. This Feature Should Break Down The Blocking

High To The Northwest Of The Hurricane And Allow Ophelia To Begin

Moving On A North-northwestward Or Northward Heading. The Latest

Gfs Run Has Shifted A Little To The West Of The Previous One At

Days 3-5...but The New Nogaps Run Has Shifted A Little To The East.

The Official Forecast Takes The Tropical Cyclone Over/near Eastern

North Carolina In About 3 Days...and Is Very Similar To The Forecast

From The Previous Advisory. It Should Be Added That 3-day Track

Forecasts Can Easily Be In Error By 200 Nautical Miles.

 

No Adjustments Are Made To The Hurricane Watch Area At This Time

Since There Has Been Little Movement...and The Forecast Track

Through 72 Hours Has Not Changed.

 

Forecaster Pasch

[vicocala]

Hurricane Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 22a

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

8 Pm Edt Sun Sep 11 2005

 

...ophelia Appears To Be Drifting Westward...

 

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect From The South Santee

River South Carolina Northeastward To Cape Lookout North Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are

Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24

Hours.

 

A Hurricane Watch Remains In Effect For The Southeast Coast Of The

United States From North Of Edisto Beach South Carolina

Northeastward To Cape Lookout North Carolina. A Hurricane Watch

Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch

Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

 

Watches Or Warnings May Have To Be Shifted Northward Later Tonight

Or On Monday.

 

Interests Elsewhere In The Southeastern United States Coastal Region

Should Monitor The Progress Of Ophelia.

 

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued By Your

Local Weather Office.

 

At 8 Pm Edt...0000z...the Center Of Hurricane Ophelia Was Located

Near Latitude 31.4 North...longitude 76.2 West Or About 245 Miles

East-southeast Of Charleston South Carolina And About 255 Miles

South Of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

 

Ophelia Appears To Be Drifting Westward. A Slow West-northwestward

Motion Is Expected Over The Next 24 Hours.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 75 Mph...with Higher Gusts.

Ophelia Is A Category One Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson Scale.

No Significant Change In Strength Is Forecast During The Next 24

Hours.

 

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 30 Miles From The

Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 160

Miles. A Noaa Buoy 41002 Located To The Northeast Of Ophelia

Recently Reported Sustained Winds Of Near 56 Mph.

 

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 978 Mb...28.88 Inches.

 

Repeating The 8 Pm Edt Position...31.4 N... 76.2 W. Movement

...drifting Westward. Maximum Sustained Winds... 75 Mph. Minimum

Central Pressure... 978 Mb.

 

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At

11 Pm Edt.

 

Forecaster Avila

[vicocala]

Hurricane Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 24a

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

8 Am Edt Mon Sep 12 2005

 

...ophelia Nearly Stationary...

...outer Rainbands Very Near The Coast Of The Carolinas...

 

A Tropical Storm Warning And A Hurricane Watch Are In Effect For

The Southeast Coast Of The United States From North Of Edisto Beach

South Carolina Northeastward To Cape Lookout North Carolina.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are

Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.

 

A Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible

Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

 

Watches Or Warnings May Have To Be Extended Northward Later Today.

 

Interests Elsewhere In The Southeastern United States Coastal Region

Should Monitor The Progress Of Ophelia.

 

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

 

At 8 Am Edt...1200z...the Center Of Hurricane Ophelia Was Located

Near Latitude 31.4 North... Longitude 76.8 West Or About 215 Miles

East-southeast Of Charleston South Carolina And About 275 Miles

South-southwest Of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

 

Ophelia Is Nearly Stationary And A Very Slow Northwestward Motion Is

Expected Today.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 75 Mph...with Higher Gusts. Ophelia

Is A Category One Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson Scale. Little

Change In Strength Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours.

 

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 30 Miles From The

Center... And Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 160

Miles.

 

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 985 Mb...29.09 Inches.

 

Heavy Rains Associated With Ophelia Could Begin To Affect Coastal

Sections Of Northeastern South Carolina And Southeastern North

Carolina Tonight Or Tuesday.

 

Repeating The 8 Am Edt Position...31.4 N... 76.8 W. Movement...

Nearly Stationary. Maximum Sustained Winds... 75 Mph. Minimum

Central Pressure... 985 Mb.

 

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At

11 Am Edt.

 

Forecaster Pasch

[vicocala]

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Am Edt Mon Sep 12 2005

 

Latest Data From The Air Force Reconnaissance Indicated A Peak 700

Mb Flight Level Wind Of 63 Kt. Maximum Surface Winds Are Estimated

To Be Near 60 Kt...although This Is Probably Generous Given The

Lack Of Deep Convection To Transport Momentum Vertically. Thus The

System Is Being Downgraded To A Tropical Storm On This Advisory.

Ophelia Has Not Moved Much Over The Last Couple Of Days...so

Upwelling And Stirring Has Likely Cooled The Waters. Ship And

Drifting Buoy Data Suggest That The Sea Surface Temperatures May

Have Decreased To Below 26 Deg C Beneath The Storm Center. The

Track Forecast Takes Ophelia Over A Section Of The Gulf Stream...

Where A Modestly Deep Warm Water Mixed Layer...i.e. Higher Oceanic

Heat Content...could Induce Re-strengthening. Therefore The

Official Forecast Shows The System Re-attaining Hurricane Strength

Before Nearing The Coast.

 

After Completing A Small Clockwise Loop...the Storm Is Moving Very

Slowly Northwestward...315/02. Because The Steering Currents Are

So Ill-defined...the Track Forecast Remains A Difficult One. Some

Global Models...namely Nogaps And The Canadian...indicate That The

Broad 500 Mb Trough Approaching The Eastern United States In A

Couple Of Days Will Lack Sufficient Amplitude To Pick Up Ophelia

And Accelerate It Northeastward. Therefore We Have The Unpleasant

Possibility That The Cyclone Could Linger Near The Southeast U.s.

Through 5 Days. The Gfs And Gfdl Still Move Ophelia Northeastward

Over The Atlantic Beyond 3 Days...but They Are Somewhat Slower Than

Their Previous Runs. In Deference To This Numerical Guidance...the

Official Forecast Is A Bit Slower Than The Previous One In The 3-5

Day Time Frame.

 

Forecaster Pasch

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 12/1500z 31.6n 76.8w 60 Kt

12hr Vt 13/0000z 31.8n 77.4w 60 Kt

24hr Vt 13/1200z 32.3n 77.7w 65 Kt

36hr Vt 14/0000z 33.0n 77.7w 65 Kt

48hr Vt 14/1200z 33.9n 77.4w 70 Kt

72hr Vt 15/1200z 35.5n 76.0w 65 Kt

96hr Vt 16/1200z 38.0n 73.0w 55 Kt

120hr Vt 17/1200z 41.0n 68.0w 45 Kt...extratropical

[RevNeal]

This storm makes me think of Beaky Buzzard from the Bugs Bunny Cartoons ... you know ...

... "I'm bringing home a baby bumble bee" ...

 

"I'm not exactly sure where I'm going, but I'm taking my sweet time agoin' there."

[vicocala]

Or a big snail. :D

 

Rev. Neal, I have heard you mention Christopher several times, is he your son, an associate or what? I don't mean to be nosy, but I haven't been around that long and don't know some history of posters that others evidently do.

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 26

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

5 Pm Edt Mon Sep 12 2005

 

The Inner Core Of The Tropical Cyclone Has Been Mostly

Obliterated...with The Strongest Winds Occurring In Bands 50-60 N

Mi Or More Away From The Center. Since Deep Convection Is Not Very

Extensive...it Is Likely That The System Is Not Very Effective At

Mixing Strong Winds Down To The Surface. Reconnaissance Flight

Level And Dropwindsonde Data Suggest That The Maximum Winds Remain

Near 60 Kt. Ophelia Is Crossing The Gulf Stream So There Is Still

Some Potential For Restrengthening. However...unless And Until The

Inner Core Becomes Re-established...significant Strengthening Is

Unlikely. The Official Forecast Allows For The Possibility That

Ophelia Will Re-attain Hurricane Status Before Landfall.

 

A Slow And Mostly Northwestward Motion...around 310/3...has Been

Observed Since Late Morning. Steering Currents Are Still Not Well

Defined And There Is Considerable Uncertainty In The Track

Forecast. Some Global Models Suggest That A Mid-level

Trough...which Could Potentially Recurve Ophelia And Take It

Northeastward Into The Atlantic After 3 Days...will Not Extend Far

Enough South To Have A Significant Effect On The Tropical Cyclone.

For Example...the Latest Nogaps Guidance Predicts That Ophelia Will

Meander Over/near Eastern North Carolina Through The End Of The

Forecast Period. The Gfs Is Most Aggressive In Showing The Trough

Carrying Ophelia Northeastward...and Takes The System Well Into The

North Atlantic By 5 Days. The Official Forecast Is A Compromise Of

Diverse Guidance But Does Indicate Recurvature...and A

Northeastward Track Into The Atlantic. This Is Close To The

Gfdl/ukmet/nogaps/gfs Consensus.

 

Storm Surge Predictions Shown In The Public Advisory Are Based On A

Category 1 Landfall.

 

Forecaster Pasch

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 12/2100z 31.8n 77.4w 60 Kt

12hr Vt 13/0600z 32.3n 77.9w 60 Kt

24hr Vt 13/1800z 32.8n 78.0w 65 Kt

36hr Vt 14/0600z 33.3n 78.0w 65 Kt

48hr Vt 14/1800z 34.2n 77.7w 65 Kt

72hr Vt 15/1800z 35.5n 76.0w 65 Kt

96hr Vt 16/1800z 38.0n 72.5w 55 Kt

120hr Vt 17/1800z 41.0n 67.0w 45 Kt...extratropical