TD #16 (Ophelia)

[RevNeal]

Rev. Neal, I have heard you mention Christopher several times, is he your son, an associate or what? I don't mean to be nosy, but I haven't been around that long and don't know some history of posters that others evidently do.

 

FOFLMAHO ... be nosy all you like! :) You wouldn't be the first, nor the last.

 

Christopher is my cousin. He likes to cruise; I like to cruise; he and I get along very well together. Hence, when we can we like to save money over the single-rate and cruise together.

 

Here's a photo of us on the last cruise we were able to make together. I'm the intelligent-looking one.

 

 

There is NO justice in this world ... he is 4 years older than I am, but he looks like he's 5 or more years younger. It's just NOT fair. And I wish he'd dump that sloppy hairstyle that's so trendy these days ... it just doesn't do him any justice.

[HeatherInFlorida]

Well, Greg, I think you both look pretty darned spiffy no matter how old you are:D .

[esther e]

I agree! As we said in the "old days," a couple of hunks!!!!

 

Esther\

[TidePrideGA]

Christopher is 4 years OLDER than you??? Rev, I really don't mean this as an insult, because it's solely a comment on Christopher... but I would have pegged him in his early 30s!!

[RevNeal]

Christopher is 4 years OLDER than you??? Rev, I really don't mean this as an insult, because it's solely a comment on Christopher... but I would have pegged him in his early 30s!!

 

I know ... isn't that just sick? He's 52 years old.

And he would SHOOT me if he knew I'd posted that here. Thankfully, he doesn't do much on the internet.

[vicocala]

Thanks for the response. I too thought that was a very nice picture. I am 49 and look older than both of you. LOL

 

I guess I need to go find the latest report, I have been a bit amiss this evening in keeping up. Teenage son troubles. :rolleyes:

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 27

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Pm Edt Mon Sep 12 2005

 

The Structure Of Ophelia Has Changed Little Over The Past Several

Hours...although The Convective Tops Are A Little Cooler Than They

Were Earlier. A Noaa Aircraft Measured Surface Winds Of 60 Kt

North Of The Center With The Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer

Around 2238z...and An Air Force Aircraft Measured 700 Mb Winds Of

72 Kt. Based On These Data...the Initial Intensity Remains Just

Below Hurricane Strength. While The Structure Of Ophelia...with A

Radius Of Maximum Wind Of 45-60 Nmi...as Well As Marginal Water

Temperatures...argues Against Any Rapid Or Large Intensity

Increases...it Would Take Very Little For Ophelia To Regain

Hurricane Status. With Both The Ships And Gfdl Guidance Indicating

Such...a Hurricane Warning At This Time Is The Prudent Course Of

Action.

 

The Motion Remains Slow And Erratic...with An Initial Motion

Estimated At 290/3. Raob Data At 0z Suggest That High Pressure To

The Northwest Of Ophelia Is Weakening With The Approach A Mid-level

Trough. Model Guidance Has Come Into Better Agreement That The

Influence Of The High Will Shortly Diminish And Ophelia Will Begin

To Turn Northward And Then Northeastward Over The Next 48

Hours...although With Very Little Acceleration. This Could Result

In A Very Slow Progression Of The System Across The Hurricane

Warning Area. Given The Size Of The Wind Field...winds At Or Near

Hurricane Strength Could Be A Prolonged Experience In Many

Locations.

 

Forecaster Franklin

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 27a

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

2 Am Edt Tue Sep 13 2005

 

...ophelia Again Nearly Stationary With Little Change In Strength...

 

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect From The South Santee River

South Carolina To Cape Lookout North Carolina. A Hurricane Warning

Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Expected In The Warning Area

Within The Next 24 Hours.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning And A Hurricane Watch Remain In Effect From

North Of Edisto Beach South Carolina To The South Santee River.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect From North Of Cape

Lookout To Oregon Inlet North Carolina...including Pamlico

Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm

Conditions Are Expected In The Warning Area Within The Next 24

Hours.

 

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

 

At 2 Am Edt...0600z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Ophelia Was

Located Near Latitude 31.9 North... Longitude 77.9 West Or About

140 Miles East-southeast Of Charleston South Carolina And About 205

Miles South-southwest Of Cape Lookout North Carolina.

 

Ophelia Has Been Nearly Stationary The Past Few Hours. A

Northwestward Drift Is Expected This Morning...and A Gradual Turn

To The North Is Expected Over The Next 24 Hours.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 70 Mph With Higher Gusts. Ophelia

Has The Potential To Regain Hurricane Strength During The Next 24

Hours.

 

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 160 Miles From The

Center. Ophelia's Strongest Winds Are Located Relatively Far From

The Center...roughly 50 To 60 Miles. These Winds Will Reach The

Coastline Well In Advance Of The Center. Noaa Buoy 41004 Recently

Reported Sustained Winds Of 39 Mph.

 

The Minimum Central Pressure Reported By An Air Force Reserve Unit

Reconnaissance Aircraft Was 990 Mb...29.23 Inches.

 

Storm Surge Flooding Of 4 To 6 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels...along

With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...are Possible In Areas Of

Onshore Winds In Association With Ophelia. A Storm Surge Of Up To

7 Feet Is Possible At The Heads Of Bays And Rivers.

 

Ophelia Is Expected To Produce Rainfall Amounts Of 3 To 5 Inches...

With Local Amounts Of Up To 8 Inches Across Eastern North Carolina

And Northeastern South Carolina Over The Next 2 Days.

 

Repeating The 2 Am Edt Position...31.9 N... 77.9 W. Movement

Toward...nearly Stationary. Maximum Sustained

Winds... 70 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 990 Mb.

 

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National

Hurricane Center At 5 Am Edt.

 

Forecaster Beven

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 29

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Am Edt Tue Sep 13 2005

 

Data From Satellites...doppler Radars...and An Air Force

Reconnaissance Aircraft Indicate Ophelia Has Become A Little Better

Organized This Morning And Is Just Below Hurricane Strength. The

Highest Recon 700 Mb Flight-level Has Been 66 Kt In The Northeast

Quadrant. Doppler Velocity Data From Wilmington Has Been Running

67-70 Kt Between 10000 To 12000 Feet In The Northeast Quadrant...

Just To The Northwest Of The Recon Max Wind Report. These Values

Would Support 59-63 Kt Surface Winds...and The Initial Intensity Is

A Blend Of These Values.

 

The Initial Motion Estimate Is 330/03 Over The Past 9-12 Hours. A

Small Inner-core Circulation With Convection Has Been Rotating

Cyclonically Around The Inside Of The Larger Radius Of Maximum

Winds. This Has Resulted In Spits And Spurts Of Forward Motion...

Including Small Loops. However...the Larger Circulation And

Pressure Field Appear To Be Moving Slowly But Steadily Toward The

North Carolina Coast. The Latest 12z Upper-air Data Indicates A

Small Mid- To Upper-level High Pressure Cell Has Moved From West

Virginia To New Jersey During The Past 24 Hours...during Which Time

The Heights Have Decreased By At Least 30-40 Meters. As This

Feature Continues To Move East-northeastward Off The Northeast U.s.

Coast...the Steering Flow Should Become More Southerly And Allow

Ophelia To Gradually Lift Northward During The Next 24 Hours. After

That...the Nhc Model Guidance Is In Fairly Good Agreement On The

Cyclone Turning Slowly Northeastward And Crossing The North

Carolina Outer Banks In About 48 Hours Before Accelerating

East-northeastward Ahead Of A Strong Shortwave Trough And Frontal

System. The Official Forecast Track Is Close To The Previous Track

Through 48 Hours...and Then Faster And A Little To The Right After

That. This Is Consistent With But To The Right Of The Nhc Model

Consensus Due To More Westerly Mid-level Flow Acting To Drive The

Cyclone More To The East At Higher Latitudes At Days 4 And 5.

 

The Inner Core Of Ophelia Is Moving Over The Warmer Gulfstream Where

Ssts Are 82f-83f. The Warmer Water Has Likely Helped To Generate

Some Moderate Convection Around The Wind Center. However...there Is

Still A Lot Of Dry Air In The Inner Region That Has To Be Mixed Out

Before Any Significant Strengthening Can Occur. Once Ophelia Nears

The Coast Of The Carolinas Where Ssts Drop By About 3f-5f...there

May Be Some Erosion Of The Inner Core Convection. However...given

The Large Size Of The Radius If Maximum Winds...only Slow Intensity

Changes Up Or Down Should Occur Before...during...and After

Landfall. Upper-level Outflow Is Expected To Remain Quite Favorable

For The Next 36-48 Hours...so Some Modest Strengthening Is Possible

And Ophelia Could Peak At 70 Kt Before Landfall Occur. Once Ophelia

Clears The Outer Banks...increasing Westerly Shear Should Induce

Slow Weakening Until The Cyclone Transitions Into An Extratropical

Low Pressure System Over The Cold Waters Of The North Atlantic.

 

Forecaster Stewart

[vicocala]

Hurricane Ophelia Special Discussion Number 31

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

530 Pm Edt Tue Sep 13 2005

 

This Special Advisory Is Mainly To Upgrade Ophelia To A Hurricane

Based On Recent Reports From Both Noaa And Air Force Reserve Unit

Reconnaissance Aircraft Data. The Noaa Aircraft Found Stepped-

Frequency Microwave Radiometer Winds Of 63-66 Kt North-northwest Of

The Center...beneath 4000 Ft Flight-level Winds Of 83 Kt. The Air

Force Recon Flight-level Winds Of 76 Kt At 700 Mb In The Southwest

Quadrant Also Supports Hurricane Intensity.

 

Given That Ophelia Is Already A 65-kt Hurricane...it Is Quite

Possible That The Hurricane Could Reach 70 Kt Before Landfall

Occurs.

 

Forecaster Stewart

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 13/2130z 32.6n 78.1w 65 Kt

12hr Vt 14/0600z 33.3n 77.8w 65 Kt

24hr Vt 14/1800z 34.3n 77.2w 65 Kt

36hr Vt 15/0600z 35.2n 76.1w 65 Kt...inland/pamlico Sound

48hr Vt 15/1800z 35.7n 74.7w 65 Kt...over Water

72hr Vt 16/1800z 37.8n 70.7w 60 Kt

96hr Vt 17/1800z 42.5n 62.5w 55 Kt...extratropical

120hr Vt 18/1800z 48.5n 49.5w 45 Kt...extratropical

 

 

$$

[vicocala]

The large eyewall of Orphelia is currently hugging the NC coastline near Wilmington, NC. Our thoughts and prayers go to those in her path. Also for those who will be cruising in the next couple of weeks, a tropical wave is beginning to get better developed about 1200 miles east of the Leeward Islands, so be alert. Here is the latest discussion on Ophelia:

 

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

 

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND NOAA LAND-BASED

DOPPLER RADARS FROM WILMINGTON AND MOREHEAD CITY INDICATE THAT THE

INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 70 KT BASED ON 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS

OF 80 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 86-91

THAT EXTENDED FROM 2500-8000 FT. THE ORGANIZATION HAS CONTINUED TO

IMPROVE IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...DESPITE THE VERY LARGE 50

NMI DIAMETER EYE. OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/06. RECENT 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA AND WATER

VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST

OF OPHELIA HAS WEAKENED...WHEREAS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE

HURRICANE HAS STRENGTHENED. THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGING TO THE

SOUTH AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST SHOULD ACT

TO KEEP OPHELIA MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHEAST TO

NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD BRING

THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH

CAROLINA OUTER BANKS BY 24 HOURS...AND CLEARING THE OUTER BANKS BY

36 HOURS. THE VARIOUS NHC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THIS

SCENARIO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY

WITH THE NOGAPS...UKMET...CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS STALL OPHELIA

NEAR THE OUTER BANKS IN 36-48 HOURS...AND THEN MOVE THE HURRICANE

NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE COD AREA. IN

CONTRAST... THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND GFDL MODELS KEEP OPHELIA

WELL OFFSHORE AND MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE

PERIOD IN DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. THE LATTER

SCENARIO IS PREFERRED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE

SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW PATTERN AND VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

 

THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OUTFLOW WILL INCREASE TO

THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. GIVEN THAT THERE IS STILL

ENOUGH RELATIVELY WARM WATER BENEATH THE HURRICANE...SOME SLIGHT

STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS...

ESPECIALLY IF THE EYE REMAINS MORE OVER THE WATER THAN OVER LAND.

 

FORECASTER STEWART

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 14/1500Z 33.7N 77.6W 70 KT

12HR VT 15/0000Z 34.5N 76.9W 75 KT

24HR VT 15/1200Z 35.1N 75.9W 75 KT...NEAR OUTER BANKS

36HR VT 16/0000Z 35.8N 74.5W 70 KT

48HR VT 16/1200Z 36.8N 72.5W 65 KT

72HR VT 17/1200Z 39.6N 68.0W 60 KT

96HR VT 18/1200Z 45.0N 58.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 19/1200Z 49.0N 45.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[vicocala]

Bulletin

Hurricane Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 34a...corrected

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

2 Pm Edt Wed Sep 14 2005

 

Corrected Intensity From 80 To 85 Mph In Repeat Section

 

...ophelia Continuing To Strengthen As It Moves Closer To

The North Carolina Coast...

 

A Hurricane Warning Is In Effect From Little River Inlet To The

North Carolina/virginia Border...including The Pamlico And

Albemarle Sounds.

 

A Hurricane Watch And A Tropical Storm Warning Are In Effect North

Of The North Carolina/virginia Border To Cape Charles Light

Virginia...including The Chesapeake Bay South Of New Point Comfort.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect From South Of Little

River Inlet To North Of The South Santee River. This Warning Will

Likely Be Discontinued Later Today.

 

A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Expected In

The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours. A Hurricane Watch Means

That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible In The Watch Area Within The

Next 36 Hr. A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm

Conditions Are Expected In The Warning Area Within The Next 24

Hours.

 

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

 

At 2 Pm Edt...1800z...the Center Of The Large Eye Of Hurricane

Ophelia Was Located Near Latitude 33.9 North... Longitude 77.4 West

Or About 40 Miles Southeast Of Wilmington North Carolina And About

70 Miles Southwest Of Cape Lookout North Carolina.

 

Ophelia Is Moving Toward The North-northeast Near 7 Mph...and This

General Motion Is Forecast To Continue Today. A Gradual Turn Toward

The Northeast At A Slightly Faster Forward Speed Is Expected To

Occur By Tonight. On This Track...the Center Of Ophelia Is Forecast

To Make Landfall On Thursday Along The Southeastern Coast Of North

Carolina Near Cape Lookout. However...the Northern Eyewall Will

Continue To Move Across Southeastern North Carolina This Afternoon

And Tonight... And Over The Outer Banks Tonight And Thursday.

 

Data From An Noaa Reconnaissance Aircraft And Noaa Land-based

Doppler Radars Indicate Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 85 Mph

With Higher Gusts. Ophelia Is A Category One Hurricane On The

Saffir-simpson Scale. Some Slight Strengthening Is Still Possible

During The Next 24 Hours Before Landfall Occurs.

 

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 50 Miles From The

Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 140

Miles. Sustained Tropical Storm-force Winds Are Continuing Along

The Southeastern North Carolina Coast From Near The North

Carolina/south Carolina Border Northeastward To Cape Lookout.

During The Past Hour...a Noaa Reporting Station At Wrightville

Beach North Carolina Recorded 6-minute Average Wind Speed Of 68 Mph

With A Gust To 77 Mph...while Noaa Buoy 41013 Located In The

Southern Eyewall Reported A Sustained Wind Of 59 Mph With A Gust To

78 Mph.

 

The Minimum Central Pressure Recently Reported By A Noaa

Reconnaissance Aircraft Was 979 Mb...28.91 Inches.

 

Maximum Coastal Storm Surge Flooding Of 5 To 7 Feet Above Normal

Tide Levels...along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...can

Be Expected In Areas Of Onshore Flow. A Storm Surge Of 9 To 11

Feet Is Possible At The Heads Of Bays And Rivers.

 

Ophelia Is Expected To Produce Additional Rainfall Accumulations Of

4 To 8 Inches Over Extreme Northeastern South Carolina And Eastern

North Carolina...with Maximum Storm Total Amounts Of 15 Inches

Possible Over Coastal Sections Of North Carolina.

 

Isolated Tornadoes Are Possible Along The Coastal Areas Of North

Carolina Today.

 

Repeating The 2 Pm Edt Position...33.9 N... 77.4 W. Movement

Toward...north-northeast Near 7 Mph. Maximum Sustained

Winds... 85 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 979 Mb.

[vicocala]

Bulletin

Hurricane Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 35a

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

7 Pm Edt Wed Sep 14 2005

 

...eyewall Of Ophelia Continues To Batter Coastal North Carolina...

 

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For All Of The North Carolina

Coast From Little River Inlet Northward To The North

Carolina/virginia Border...including The Pamlico And Albemarle

Sounds.

 

A Hurricane Watch And A Tropical Storm Warning Remain In Effect

North Of The North Carolina/virginia Border To Cape Charles

Light Virginia...including The Chesapeake Bay South Of New Point

Comfort.

 

A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Expected In

The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours. A Hurricane Watch Means

That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible In The Watch Area Within The

Next 36 Hr. A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm

Conditions Are Expected In The Warning Area Within The Next 24

Hours.

 

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

 

At 7 Pm Edt...2300z...the Center Of Hurricane Ophelia Was Located

Near Latitude 34.2 North... Longitude 76.9 West Or About 35 Miles

Southwest Of Cape Lookout North Carolina.

 

Ophelia Is Moving Toward The Northeast Near 8 Mph...and This

General Motion Is Expected To Continue For The Next 24 Hours. The

Center Of Ophelia Is Expected To Pass Over Or Very Near Cape

Lookout Within The Next Several Hours...and The Northern Eyewall

Will Continue To Pass Over Coastal North Carolina And The Outer

Bands Tonight And During Much Of Tomorrow.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds...located Offshore In The Eastern Portion Of

The Eyewall...are Near 85 Mph...with Higher Gusts. Ophelia Is A

Category One Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson Scale. Some Slight

Strengthening Is Possible Overnight. Cape Lookout Recently

Reported A Wind Gust To 76 Mph.

 

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 50 Miles From The

Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 140

Miles.

 

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 979 Mb...28.91 Inches.

 

Maximum Coastal Storm Surge Flooding Of 5 To 7 Feet Above Normal

Tide Levels...along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...can

Be Expected In Areas Of Onshore Flow. A Storm Surge Of 9 To 11

Feet Is Possible At The Heads Of Bays And Rivers.

 

Ophelia Is Expected To Produce Additional Rainfall Accumulations Of

4 To 8 Inches Over Portions Of Eastern North Carolina During The

Next 24 Hours...with Maximum Storm Total Amounts Of 15 Inches

Possible.

 

Isolated Tornadoes Are Possible Over Northeastern North Carolina

Tonight.

 

Repeating The 7 Pm Edt Position...34.2 N... 76.9 W. Movement

Toward...northeast Near 8 Mph. Maximum Sustained

Winds... 85 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 979 Mb.

 

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National

Hurricane Center At 9 Pm Edt Followed By The Next

Complete Advisory At 11 Pm Edt.

 

Forecaster Franklin

[vicocala]

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 36

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Pm Edt Wed Sep 14 2005

 

The Intensity Estimate Remains 75 Kt...based On 84 Kt Winds At 700

Mb In The South Eyewall...and A 10-min Mean Wind From Cape Lookout

Of 64 Kt. However...the Central Pressure Is Up A Little And The

Eyewall Has Eroded A Bit...so Ophelia May Have Reached Its Peak

Intensity. Water Vapor Imagery Shows That A Surge Of

Northwesterlies In The Mid- To Upper-troposphere Is Rapidly

Undercutting The Outflow In The Northwest Quadrant. While This May

Be Temporarily Enhancing Convection In The Western Eyewall...i Have

To Think That This Flow Will Be A Disruptive Influence On The

Circulation In Another 6-12 Hours Or So. The Gfdl Model Shows Some

Weakening In The Short Term As Well. The Official Intensity

Forecast Is A Little Bit Under The Previous Advisory.

 

The Initial Motion Is 060/6. Model Guidance Has Shifted Quite A Bit

To The Left...with The Nogaps...gfdl...gfs...and Ukmet Taking

Ophelia Close Enough To Threaten New England And Nova Scotia With

Tropical Storm Force Winds. This Appears To Be Due To The Trough

Coming Out Of The Rockies Being Deeper Over The Eastern United

States...and A More Persistent High Pressure North Of Bermuda.

Given The Consistent Shift In All The Guidance...i Have Adjusted

The Track To The Left...but Further Adjustments In That Direction

Down The Road May Be Required.

 

 

Forecaster Franklin

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 15/0300z 34.3n 76.5w 75 Kt

12hr Vt 15/1200z 34.7n 75.8w 70 Kt

24hr Vt 16/0000z 35.3n 74.9w 65 Kt

36hr Vt 16/1200z 36.3n 73.6w 65 Kt

48hr Vt 17/0000z 38.0n 71.5w 60 Kt

72hr Vt 18/0000z 42.5n 65.0w 50 Kt...extratropical

96hr Vt 19/0000z 46.5n 56.0w 45 Kt...extratropical

120hr Vt 20/0000z 50.0n 42.0w 45 Kt...extratropical

[vicocala]

Bulletin

Hurricane Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 36b

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

3 Am Edt Thu Sep 15 2005

 

...ophelia Eyewall Over The Outer Banks...

 

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect Surf City To The North

Carolina/virginia Border...including The Pamlico And Albemarle

Sounds.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect From Surf City To Cape

Fear.

 

A Hurricane Watch And A Tropical Storm Warning Remain In Effect

North Of The North Carolina/virginia Border To Cape Charles

Light Virginia...including The Chesapeake Bay South Of New Point

Comfort.

 

A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Expected In

The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours. A Hurricane Watch Means

That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible In The Watch Area Within The

Next 36 Hr. A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm

Conditions Are Expected In The Warning Area Within The Next 24

Hours.

 

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

 

At 3 Am Edt...0700z...the Center Of Hurricane Ophelia Was Located

Near Latitude 34.6 North... Longitude 76.3 West Or About 15 Miles

South-southeast Of Cape Lookout North Carolina And About 65 Miles

Southwest Of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

 

Ophelia Is Moving Toward The Northeast Near 6 Mph...and A Slow

Motion To The Northeast Is Expected Over The Next 24 Hours. While

The Center Of Ophelia Is Expected To Parallel And Pass A Very Short

Distance Offshore The North Carolina Outer Banks Over The Next 24

Hours...the Northwest Eyewall Is Expected To Remain Over The Outer

Banks During This Period.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds...primarily Located Offshore In The

Southeastern Portion Of The Eyewall...are Near 85 Mph...with Higher

Gusts. Ophelia Is A Category One Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson

Scale...and Is Expected To Remain A Category One Hurricane During

The Next 24 Hours.

 

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 40 Miles From The

Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up

To 140 Miles.

 

The Latest Minimum Central Pressure Reported By Reconnaissance

Aircraft Was 982 Mb...29.00 Inches.

 

Maximum Coastal Storm Surge Flooding Of 5 To 7 Feet Above Normal

Tide Levels...along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...can

Be Expected In Areas Of Onshore Flow. A Storm Surge Of 9 To 11

Feet Is Possible At The Heads Of Bays And Rivers.

 

Ophelia Is Expected To Produce Additional Rainfall Accumulations Of

3 To 6 Inches Over Portions Of Eastern North Carolina During The

Next 24 Hours...with Maximum Storm Total Amounts Of 15 Inches

Possible.

 

Repeating The 3 Am Edt Position...34.6 N... 76.3 W. Movement

Toward...northeast Near 6 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds... 85

Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...982 Mb.

 

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At

5 Am Edt.

 

Forecaster Avila

 

$$

[Sage]

Vicocala,

 

Thanks for the updates on Ophelia. She just doesn't want to come ashore or leave the costal area anytime soon. I feel so sorry for the people she has been pounding for days. She reminds me of Francis who took her time over Florida.

 

Rev Neal,

 

I would have to agree that Christopher does indeed look to be in his 30's. Does he have a secret to looking young that he would like to share with us here? Oh, and the haircut suits him nicely.

[HeatherInFlorida]

Hey Vic! Time to start looking at that new about-to-be tropical depression!!! Not to mention the low pressure area developing much closer to us. I knew it was too good to be true to be quiet for very long.

[vicocala]

Yep,

 

It seems like we are heating up again. That is very unfortunate as my cruise is now a month away. Hopefully steering currents will keep the storms that probably will arise away. We can hope, right?

 

Here is the latest on Ophelia:

BULLETIN

HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37B

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

9 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005

 

...OPHELIA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO SKIRT THE NORTH

CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...

 

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY TO THE NORTH

CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE

SOUNDS.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF THE NORTH

CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING

THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

 

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN

THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING

MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING

AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AT 9 AM EDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

 

OPHELIA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH

...AND A MOTION BETWEEN NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED

TODAY. WHILE THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST

OFFSHORE AND PARALLEL THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... THE

NORTHERN EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OUTER BANKS

DURING THIS PERIOD.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE

CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 140 MILES.

 

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE

AIRCRAFT WAS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

 

MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL

TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN

BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10

FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

 

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF

3 TO 5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAXIMUM

STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

 

REPEATING THE 9 AM EDT POSITION...34.8 N... 75.7 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...

80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

AT 11 AM EDT.

 

FORECASTER STEWART

[HeatherInFlorida]

Yes, Vic, we can hope. Mine's a month away, too. But I think it will calm down ... generally it does by the end of September. If we can just make it to there, I'll feel a little more confident.

 

We always cruise in late October/November and so far (knock on wood) we've been okay!

[Sage]

Hang in there Heather and Vic. Hope is always an option. I'm sure that both of you will have wonderful cruises.

 

Vic,

 

Thanks for keeping us updated on all the storms. You're doing a great job.

[RevNeal]

I would have to agree that Christopher does indeed look to be in his 30's. Does he have a secret to looking young that he would like to share with us here? Oh, and the haircut suits him nicely.

 

It must be genetics. :) Neals tend to live a long time, and his grandfather (and mine) lived to be 98, and our grandmother 104 (and I've got my other grandmother who is still alive at 97). I'm told I don't look 48, but I certainly look older than Christopher. Nevertheless, when you have a chance to see him close-up you might notice that he is starting to show little signs of aging here and there.

 

As for his hair ... please, don't compliment it; Mom says it looks like a mess. I agree.

[TidePrideGA]

I showed the pic to my business partner who prides himself on accurately guessing people's age (and, indeed, he is very, very good at it). He put you, Rev, at early to mid-40s and Christopher at late 20s. He FLIPPED when I told him how old Christopher really is.

[HeatherInFlorida]

LOL! Greg! This has gotten to be quite an item! You should have started a thread "Guess who's older?" You could have made some money on this:D !

 

I have to admit, I'm really surprised. I always assumed (from previous pictures) that Christopher was considerably younger than you. Of course, from my perspective you're both pretty darned young.

[RevNeal]

I showed the pic to my business partner who prides himself on accurately guessing people's age (and, indeed, he is very, very good at it). He put you, Rev, at early to mid-40s and Christopher at late 20s. He FLIPPED when I told him how old Christopher really is.

 

Early to mid-40s for me is common ... most people will judge my age about 42-44. When they find out I'm actually crowding 50 they are usually surprised but it doesn't cause nearly the consternation that they have with Christopher. On his 50th birthday he was carded. :D I haven't been carded since I was 15! :)

[vicocala]

You are quite welcome Sage. I wouldn't be suprised to see the storm downgraded within the next advisory or two. The eyewall is deteriorating and the storm is becoming elongated along a north-south axis which could eventually break down the circulation. The storm continues to hammer the outer banks though and could cause some lousy weather for New England this weekend. Hopefully a trough will pick it up and move it on out into the northern Atlantic.