CAS theo loss question

[skeeter195]

I have been a table player(mostly BJ and some craps) for years with NCL. I was earning 10-16K points per cruise(2-3X per year). My last two cruises though my point totals have been horrible(3-5k) while I was playing the same amount of time and same ave bet. I think I am done with tables if I do not get decent points on my first day or so on my next cruise. I think I may switch to VP if I can find decent pay tables. I will play $50 a hand and I figure I can earn about 5k points per day.

 

My question is, does anyone know what type of theo loss I will have with this. At tables I usually have a 6-8k theo and am offered mini suites for any cruise. I do not play for comps, but when I play I want the most for my effort.

 

Also most times when I cash in my points I do not get alot taken off my bill. Example when I earned 14100 one cruise, they took off $150. The biggest percentage was when I earned 4800 last cruise and they took off $130, but missed the $60 in fees for taking money out(I was Golden), I considered it a wash and did not dispute it the last morning.

 

Lastly, I have been very lucky on my past 6 cruises and have come out on the plus side, anywhere from $130 on my last cruise to two 5 digit wins. I really think that because of my wins my comps are reduced, thoughts. I am also that guy in the casino that every dealer knows my name and am a friendly guy with the staff. Also I always tip at the tables and usually tip between $500-2k throughout the week or ten days.

[clcjdn]

Skeeter195, see my posts on this thread regarding theo:

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2290698

I mainly play VP with a sprinkle of slots, and no real time at the tables. Keep in mind my findings on the $1200 jackpots in relation to actual loss. FYI, I usually budget about $4,000 for gambling on a 7 day cruise and play through most of my wins. I usually average $5,500-$5,800 in Theo.

[SuiteCruiser]

I have been a table player(mostly BJ and some craps) for years with NCL. I was earning 10-16K points per cruise(2-3X per year). My last two cruises though my point totals have been horrible(3-5k) while I was playing the same amount of time and same ave bet. I think I am done with tables if I do not get decent points on my first day or so on my next cruise. I think I may switch to VP if I can find decent pay tables. I will play $50 a hand and I figure I can earn about 5k points per day.

 

My question is, does anyone know what type of theo loss I will have with this. At tables I usually have a 6-8k theo and am offered mini suites for any cruise. I do not play for comps, but when I play I want the most for my effort.

 

Also most times when I cash in my points I do not get alot taken off my bill. Example when I earned 14100 one cruise, they took off $150. The biggest percentage was when I earned 4800 last cruise and they took off $130, but missed the $60 in fees for taking money out(I was Golden), I considered it a wash and did not dispute it the last morning.

 

Lastly, I have been very lucky on my past 6 cruises and have come out on the plus side, anywhere from $130 on my last cruise to two 5 digit wins. I really think that because of my wins my comps are reduced, thoughts. I am also that guy in the casino that every dealer knows my name and am a friendly guy with the staff. Also I always tip at the tables and usually tip between $500-2k throughout the week or ten days.

 

There's been a new sentence added to what the CAS reps say now and it's "you didn't lose enough" which makes me believe that what you are saying is correct, that it's not so much the theo anymore, but your actual losses. That said, that should not affect your points at all.

 

My worst experience with points was on the Epic, where most of the tables had sensors that didn't work properly. I'd get back and be told that I had played 65 hours on a port intensive cruise and hadn't played as much as my last one. I would have them check the hours and they would and it matched, yet the play didn't. They would say they'd check and the data would come back saying they were correct. Those sensors are now fixed and all should be well back on Epic.

 

My best experience with points was on the Escape, brand new ship, great Casino host. She picked up every charge on my account other than casino withdrawals and DSC.

 

Good luck!

Edited December 23, 2015 by SuiteCruiser

[skeeter195]

Thanks guys.

 

clcjdn, do you remember how many points you earn when getting the $5500-5800 theo? If so then this would give me a good idea of what to expect if I switch to VP.

 

Also, have you found any good pay tables for higher denominations? I have just started playing dueces wild with a 1,2,2,3,5,9,15,25,200 pay table(100.27%) and have been doing well with it. From what I remember on past NCL cruises(playing only very little VP) the tables were bad at the smaller denominations.

 

Thanks again

[Cattie]

Theo loss is basically what the casino "thinks" you're going to loose on any given trip. When you "win" that goes down. I'm not 100% sure how ship casino's differ from land based, but from being a supervisor in the business for many years, a lot of things going into comping. Avg bet and time played are big ones for us when we do comps. You give me $200 buy in and play for 20 mins you're less likely to get a larger comp, but you play on the $200 for 3 hours means you're more then likely playing any win back into the table.

 

There's no real staple way of comping, the more you loose the more you're "worth" to the casino. So with that thinking if you "win" you won't get as much.

 

Like I said, I've never worked on a cruise ship, but from being in the casino industry for close to 20 years between AC and MD this is what we go by.

 

Slots will always get better comps due to it being a machine and doesn't take into play game pace. So in 1 hand of BJ could be 5-6 spins or more on a slot machine, unless playing heads up.

[skeeter195]

I really do not think that theo loss has anything to do with how much you win. It is just a calculation on the game you play, time spent, and money wagered. At least thats how I have always been comped on land and sea. Actual loss is affected by your actual wins and losses and that I can see affecting your comps if that is taken into account by that particular casino. In my opinion only theo should matter. I hope I am not wrong on this.

 

Anyway, I know what the theo loss is for BJ and craps according to the different bets you make. I was wondering though if you play at a 100% plus VP poker machine if you would actually have any theo loss at all because the theo loss is based on how much you are expected to lose over time. But with the VP I am currently playing there is technically a .27% in the players favor with perfect play.

[EyeSeaEwe]

what is a theo loss?

[sjbdtz]

what is a theo loss?

 

 

It's when you once had a Theo, and now you don't....and you're not sure why.

 

 

 

.

[skeeter195]

A theo loss or theoretical loss is the amount of money the casino expects you to lose during a trip. All games have different percentage chances of you winning. The loss percentage, time played and amount wagered per bet are used to calculate your theo loss.

 

Example:

1-playing slots at $10 per spin at 20 spins per minute for 1 hour you will have bet $12,000 at say a 5% house edge

2-you play $50 a hand at BJ at 4 hands per minute for 1 hour you will have bet $12,000 at a .5% house edge

 

Your theo loss will be much higher with example #1 because of the bigger house edge.

 

The house edge is all about numbers and numbers don't lie. In the end the house will get these percentages from everyone as a whole. Some people will lose almost every time, while others will win many times in a row with their trips to the casinos. It will all work out to the percentages though eventually.

[clcjdn]

I had 7500 points in June (mixed in more slots) and 11,000 points on my last cruise. Video Poker pay tables on the ships are not going to be as good as in land based casinos (no competition for players). I mainly play Double Double Bonus which are 7/5 at the $0.25 level. I believe the $1 level is 8/5, but may have to go all the way to the $2 level to get that. By my rough math, I believe they are taking a 5% house edge on VP (which really stinks for most casual VP players as it takes near perfect play to get to the 95% payback on these lower pay tables). I play at roughly 98-99% perfect strategy (when I continually test on my WinPoker app), so I am at least getting a "fair" return.

 

As for theo vs actual loss, my rep has told me they take whichever is higher for base-lining your next cruise cabin offer. As for the additional comps while on-board, that is where the host discretion comes into play. I have had good luck with that on all ships except the Epic.

[skeeter195]

Thanks again clcldn

[clcjdn]

Thanks again clcldn

 

No worries! Hope this helps!