Tropical Storm Tammy

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 2

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Am Edt Wed Oct 05 2005

 

At 13z The Center Of Tammy Passed Over Noaa Buoy 41009...which

Reported A Pressure Just Under 1004 Mb. Observations From The Buoy

And Nws Radar Indicate That Tammy Is Now Moving Northward At About

12 Kt. This Rightward Deflection Of The Track May Be A Response To

The Asymmetric Distribution Of Convection...which Remains To The

North And East Of The Center. Tammy Is Located Between A Mid- To

Upper-level Low Over The Northeastern Gulf Of Mexico And A

Deep-layer Ridge Over The Mid-atlantic States. This Synoptic

Pattern Is Expected To Turn Tammy To The Northwest Over The Next 12

To 24 Hours. The Main Question Is How Much The Center Will Jump Or

Reform To The Right In Response To The Convection. The 00z

Canadian Model Seems To Have Had The Best Handle On Tammy

Overnight...and I Am Giving This Model More Than The Usual Amount

Of Weight This Morning. The Official Forecast Is Adjusted A Little

To The Right Of The Previous Advisory. Because Tammy Is Moving

Roughly Parallel To The Florida Coast...and Because Most Of The

Weather Associated With Tammy Is Well-removed From The Center...the

Precise Location And Timing Of The Landfall Of The Center Is Of

Relatively Little Importance.

 

Doppler Radar Is Not Showing Much In The Way Of Winds Aloft...about

35 Kt. Based On Earlier Ship And Buoy Reports The Intensity Is

Presumed To Still Be Near 35 Kt. An Air Force Reconnaissance

Aircraft Will Be In The Storm Early This Afternoon. Model Guidance

Suggests That The Southerly Shear Over The Cyclone Could Abate Just

A Little Bit Before Landfall...but There Should Be Enough Shear To

Prevent Rapid Development. The Official Forecast Is Close To The

Ships Guidance.

 

Tammy Has The Potential To Be A Significant Rainfall Event For

Portions Of The Southeastern United States.

 

 

Forecaster Franklin

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 05/1500z 28.9n 80.3w 35 Kt

12hr Vt 06/0000z 30.2n 81.3w 45 Kt

24hr Vt 06/1200z 31.4n 82.6w 30 Kt...inland

36hr Vt 07/0000z 32.3n 83.8w 25 Kt...dissipating

48hr Vt 07/1200z...dissipated

[vicocala]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

530 Pm Edt Wed Oct 5 2005

 

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

 

The National Hurricane Center Is Issuing Advisories On Tropical

Storm Tammy...located About 35 Miles East-southeast Of Jacksonville

Florida.

 

Satellite Images And Surface Observations Indicate That The Area Of

Disturbed Weather In The Extreme Northwestern Caribbean Sea And

Northeastern Yucatan Has Changed Little In Organization During The

Past Several Hours. Altough Surfaces Pressures Are Low In The

Area...upper-level Winds Are Not Conducive For A Rapid Development.

This System Is Expected To Move Toward The North-northeast

Spreading Heavy Rains And Gusty Winds Over Western Cuba.

 

Shower Activity Associated With A Tropical Wave Located About 1550

Miles East Of The Southern Windward Islands Continues Well

Organized. Surface Observations Indicate That A Low Pressure May Be

Forming With 20 To 25 Mph Winds. However...any Additional

Development Will Be Slow To Occur.

 

Elsewhere... Tropical Storm Formation Is Not Expected Through

Thursday.

 

Forecaster Avila

 

$$

[vicocala]

five day forecasted track

 

 

 

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 3

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

5 Pm Edt Wed Oct 05 2005

 

The Reconnaissance Aircraft Investigating Tammy Found Peak Flight

Level Winds Of 53 Kt About 150 Nm Northeast Of The Center. These

Data Support A Surface Estimate Of 45 Kt. The Crew Made Visual

Estimates Of 50 To 55 Kt In A Few Spots So The Advisory Estimate

Could Be A Shade Low. Since The Center Is Only A Few Hours From

Landfall...little Additional Increase In Strength Is Likely.

However...with The Strongest Winds Being Well-removed From The

Center...only A Slow Decrease In Strength Is Likely After The

Center Moves Inland.

 

The Center Make A Jab At The Coastline Late This Morning But Then

Returned To Its Previous Track...and The Initial Motion Is 330/12.

Tammy Remains Located Between A Mid- To Upper-level Low Over The

Northeastern Gulf Of Mexico And A Deep-layer Ridge Over The

Mid-atlantic States. This Synoptic Pattern Is Expected To Turn

Tammy To The Northwest Over The Next 12 Hours Or So...and The

Circulation Is Expected To Dissipate After About 24 Hours.

 

Forecaster Franklin

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 05/2100z 30.1n 81.2w 45 Kt

12hr Vt 06/0600z 31.4n 82.5w 35 Kt...inland

24hr Vt 06/1800z 32.2n 83.8w 25 Kt...dissipating

36hr Vt 07/0600z...dissipated

 

 

$$

[LoveLifeAtSea]

As always Vic, THANKS for keeping us updated as to what's going on in the tropics.

 

I hope there are no bad effects of this storm on any body!

[chimera]

Vic-

 

Thanx from me too. You are making me drag up stuff that I learned in a meterology course a long long time ago. I appreciate it. :D

[vicocala]

Happy to do so. I get so much from the boards I want to give back a little.

[vicocala]

Tropical Weather Outlook...corrected

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

530 Am Edt Thu Oct 6 2005

 

...corrected Location Of Tammy And Wording In Last Paragraph...

 

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

 

The National Hurricane Center Is Issuing Advisories On Tropical

Storm Tammy... Centered Inland About 130 Miles West-southwest Of

Savannah Georgia.

 

Satellite Imagery And Surface Observations... Including From Noaa

Buoy 42056 In The Northwestern Caribbean Sea... Indicate That An

Area Of Surface Low Pressure Is Centered Near The Western Tip Of

Cuba... With A Surface Trough Extending Northward Over The Eastern

Gulf Of Mexico. However... This System Is Poorly Organized With

Most Of The Associated Shower And Thunderstorm Activity Located

Well To The East Of The Surface Low. Upper Level Winds Are Not

Very Conducive For Tropical Cyclone Formation... And Any

Development Is Expected To Be Slow To Occur. An Air Force

Reconnaissance Aircraft Is Available To Investigate This System

Later Today... If Necessary. Even If Tropical Cyclone Development

Does Not Occur... This System Will Likely Spread Heavy Rains And

Gusty Winds Over Portions Of Cuba... South Florida... And The

Florida Keys During The Next Day Or Two As It Moves Northward.

 

A Low Pressure Area Along A Tropical Wave Is Located About 1300

Miles East Of The Southern Windward Islands And Is Moving Westward

At About 20 Mph. This System Continues To Gradually Organize...

And Upper Level Winds Appear Conducive For Additional Development.

 

Elsewhere... Tropical Storm Formation Is Not Expected Through

Friday.

 

Forecaster Knabb

 

$$

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Tammy Intermediate Advisory Number 5a

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

8 Am Edt Thu Oct 06 2005

 

...tammy Continues Inland...winds Beginning To Diminish...

 

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect From Altamaha Sound

Georgia Northward To South Santee River South Carolina. The

Tropical Storm Warning Will Likely Be Discontinued Later This

Morning. Please Consult Products Issued By Local National Weather

Service Forecast Offices Concerning Possible Gale Warnings Outside

Of The Tropical Storm Warning Area.

 

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

 

At 8 Am Edt...1200z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Tammy Was

Estimated Near Latitude 31.8 North... Longitude 84.5 West. This

Position Is Inland Near Albany Georgia. However... Most Of The

Strongest Winds And Heavy Rains Associated With Tammy Are Well To

The North And East Of The Center And Are Still Affecting The

Coastline In The Warning Area.

 

The Center Of Tammy Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 14

Mph... And This Motion General Motion Is Expected To Continue

Today... With A Gradual Decrease In Forward Speed. The Circulation

Of Tammy Is Expected To Dissipate Within The Next 24 Hours.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 40 Mph... With Higher Gusts...in A

Few Squalls Over Water And Near The Coastline In The Warning Area.

Weakening Is Forecast As The Center Continues Moving Inland... And

Tammy Will Likely Become A Tropical Depression Later This Morning.

 

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 200 Miles To The

Northeast From The Center.

 

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1005 Mb...29.68 Inches.

 

Tammy Is Expected To Produce 3 To 5 Inches Of Rainfall Over Portions

Of Southeastern Georgia... Eastern South Carolina... And

Southeastern North Carolina... With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 8

To 10 Inches.

 

Isolated Tornadoes Are Possible Today Over Southeastern Georgia And

Eastern South Carolina.

 

Repeating The 8 Am Edt Position...31.8 N... 84.5 W. Movement

Toward...west-northwest Near 14 Mph. Maximum Sustained

Winds... 40 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1005 Mb.

 

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National

Hurricane Center At 11 Am Edt.

 

Forecaster Franklin

 

 

$$

[Sage]

Thanks Vicocala. You continue to do a great job on keeping us updated. It looks as though this next one towards Cuba and south Florida is going to give us a lot of rain. I just hope things calm down before you head out on your cruise. :D

[Oceanwench]

We are getting a double whammy here, rain from tammy and stan!

It's supposed to rain through Saturday. :(

[KAJOKG]

We are getting a double whammy here, rain from tammy and stan!

It's supposed to rain through Saturday. :(

Hi Oceanwench -- Believe it or not the sun was shining brightly yesterday here in Martin County and it's still sunny today, albeit with some rain showers through the sunshine....only in Florida. We leave out of FLL on Oct. 16 and we're watching closely.

VICOCALA - Let me add my thanks for your storm postings. You are obviously very much appreciated! :)

[vicocala]

Kajokg,

 

 

Enjoy your cruise, we both need to be on the watch for the storm that is east of the Leeward Islands, it could possibly be trouble for both our cruises about the time we embark. Let's pray that doesn't happen. And you too are welcome.

[vicocala]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

1130 Am Edt Thu Oct 6 2005

 

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

 

The National Hurricane Center Has Issued Its Last Advisory On

Tropical Depression Tammy...centered Over Extreme Southeastern

Alabama. Future Public Advisories On Tammy Will Be Issued By The

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center...under Awips Header Tcpat1

And Wmo Header Wtnt31 Kwnh.

 

A Small Area Of Low Pressure Is Located Near The Western Tip Of

Cuba. Shower Activity With This System Is Poorly Organized...and

Upper-level Winds In The Eastern Gulf Of Mexico Are Expected To

Become Less Favorable For Tropical Cyclone Development Over The

Next Day Or So. Nevertheless...this System Will Likely Spread

Heavy Rains And Gusty Winds Over Portions Of Cuba...the Florida

Keys...and The Florida Peninsula Over The Next Day Or Two As It

Moves North-northeastward.

 

The Large Tropical Wave Located About 1150 Miles East Of The

Southern Windward Islands Continues Westward At 15 To 20 Mph. This

System Has Not Become Any Better Organized This Morning...but Some

Development Is Still Possible Over The Next Day Or So.

 

Elsewhere... Tropical Storm Formation Is Not Expected Through

Friday.

 

Forecaster Franklin

 

$$

[Oceanwench]

Hi Oceanwench -- Believe it or not the sun was shining brightly yesterday here in Martin County and it's still sunny today, albeit with some rain showers through the sunshine....only in Florida. We leave out of FLL on Oct. 16 and we're watching closely.

 

Katy, Hi!

 

OK, I admit there are some periods of sunshine in Martin County [Palm Beach County too], but the rain bands have been awful and sporadic. Right now it is clouding up, and we're due for another downpour.

Definitely not beach weather!

 

I have a convertible, and I can't remember the last time I drove with the top down. That's too risky here these last few days! :eek:

[HeatherInFlorida]

Anyone who wants up to date info on all these storms can get it in even more detail with maps included by just going directly to the NOAA site.

 

In case you don't have the link, here it is. It's a wonderful place for storm info like this and you can access it anytime at all.

 

National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center

 

If you go to that site and just click on the most recent "Public Advisory" you'll have the very latest info. Believe me, I sure have it bookmarked!!!:)

[KAJOKG]

Katy, Hi!

 

OK, I admit there are some periods of sunshine in Martin County [Palm Beach County too], but the rain bands have been awful and sporadic. Right now it is clouding up, and we're due for another downpour.

Definitely not beach weather!

 

I have a convertible, and I can't remember the last time I drove with the top down. That's too risky here these last few days! :eek:

Well, it's here. Lots of rain....yuk! Keep your roof up. Looks like a week of this stuff. :(

[Oceanwench]

Wow, Katy, did you just hear that thunder? Scared me out of my seat!

 

Bring back the sunshine! :)

 

Heather, thanks for posting that link. That site is bookmarked by most Floridians I know. Lots of good info, charts, etc.

[KAJOKG]

Wow, Katy, did you just hear that thunder? Scared me out of my seat!

 

Bring back the sunshine! :)

 

Heather, thanks for posting that link. That site is bookmarked by most Floridians I know. Lots of good info, charts, etc.

No thunder yet. How far north or south are you in Palm Beach County? We are in the middle of Martin, I guess. Hope Sound, Jupiter, Juno and North Palm Beach are south of us.

[vicocala]

To the moderators:

 

 

Why pray tell was this thread moved from the HAL board? I have been posting this information for HAL posters all season and it has been well received as a valuable service from the many thanks I have gotten.

 

It is also an insult to everyone who lives in an area that may be affected by a hurricane that this is deemed "fun stuff".

 

I think an apology and reinstatement of the thread are in order, even though Tammy is no longer an issue, I use the most current tropical storm thread to keep others advised as to what other potential storms are lurking.

 

Thanks and i hope this receives some prompt attention! :mad: :mad: :mad:

[DonMaryCar]

Vicola

 

I just wanted to thank you for all your reports. As a midwesterner who has minimal knowledge of hurricane activity, I really appreciate your reports. We are sailing out of Ft. Lauderdale on the 16th so hoping nothing big blows that direction. Actually we are arriving on the 12th hoping to spend some time on your sunny beaches, not so sure that is going to be the case if the clouds keep blowing in.

 

Thanks again Vic

 

Mary:)

[vicocala]

You are quite welcome Mary. It is for folks like you that the information is most valuable as you may not know how to check the links for hurricanes and/or may not have the time to research it.

 

I realize that most of the information is on the Weather Channel but sometimes I can get it and get it out before the Weather Channel does, and if someone does not have access to a TV or cable then it becomes more valuable.

 

Thanks for your vote of confidence and I am glad you found the thread. Have a happy and safe journey and Bon Voyage!

[Oceanwench]

No thunder yet. How far north or south are you in Palm Beach County? We are in the middle of Martin, I guess. Hope Sound, Jupiter, Juno and North Palm Beach are south of us.

 

Katy: I am across the bridge from you in Stuart on Kanner Highway. I live in PBC, work in MC.

[HeatherInFlorida]

Hi, Vic ... the information comes up immediately on the NOAA site which is why I posted it above. The report is not so easily accessible on The Weather Channel site.

 

What I like about the NOAA site is that it also offers easy to read maps, etc., for those of us who aren't meteorologically inclined:o .

[Oceanwench]

And we all know the NOAA site is easier to access than CC! ;)

 

I would guess this thread is more suited to this area as it is not cruise-related at this point. Tammy is not going to interfere with anyone's cruise.

 

Vic, I think it would be more beneficial if you just posted the link to NOAA, then those interested in the storm could just click and go to the site. Pasting in all of that makes no sense, when a link will do the same thing.

 

Then you could add your own observations after the link.

 

I know when I read posts that have a lot of information pasted into them from another source, I usually skip them. I'd rather read what the poster has to say himself/herself.