vicocala Posted October 5, 2005 #1 Share Posted October 5, 2005 Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 2 Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl 11 Am Edt Wed Oct 05 2005 At 13z The Center Of Tammy Passed Over Noaa Buoy 41009...which Reported A Pressure Just Under 1004 Mb. Observations From The Buoy And Nws Radar Indicate That Tammy Is Now Moving Northward At About 12 Kt. This Rightward Deflection Of The Track May Be A Response To The Asymmetric Distribution Of Convection...which Remains To The North And East Of The Center. Tammy Is Located Between A Mid- To Upper-level Low Over The Northeastern Gulf Of Mexico And A Deep-layer Ridge Over The Mid-atlantic States. This Synoptic Pattern Is Expected To Turn Tammy To The Northwest Over The Next 12 To 24 Hours. The Main Question Is How Much The Center Will Jump Or Reform To The Right In Response To The Convection. The 00z Canadian Model Seems To Have Had The Best Handle On Tammy Overnight...and I Am Giving This Model More Than The Usual Amount Of Weight This Morning. The Official Forecast Is Adjusted A Little To The Right Of The Previous Advisory. Because Tammy Is Moving Roughly Parallel To The Florida Coast...and Because Most Of The Weather Associated With Tammy Is Well-removed From The Center...the Precise Location And Timing Of The Landfall Of The Center Is Of Relatively Little Importance. Doppler Radar Is Not Showing Much In The Way Of Winds Aloft...about 35 Kt. Based On Earlier Ship And Buoy Reports The Intensity Is Presumed To Still Be Near 35 Kt. An Air Force Reconnaissance Aircraft Will Be In The Storm Early This Afternoon. Model Guidance Suggests That The Southerly Shear Over The Cyclone Could Abate Just A Little Bit Before Landfall...but There Should Be Enough Shear To Prevent Rapid Development. The Official Forecast Is Close To The Ships Guidance. Tammy Has The Potential To Be A Significant Rainfall Event For Portions Of The Southeastern United States. Forecaster Franklin Forecast Positions And Max Winds Initial 05/1500z 28.9n 80.3w 35 Kt 12hr Vt 06/0000z 30.2n 81.3w 45 Kt 24hr Vt 06/1200z 31.4n 82.6w 30 Kt...inland 36hr Vt 07/0000z 32.3n 83.8w 25 Kt...dissipating 48hr Vt 07/1200z...dissipated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vicocala Posted October 5, 2005 Author #2 Share Posted October 5, 2005 Tropical Weather Outlook Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl 530 Pm Edt Wed Oct 5 2005 For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico... The National Hurricane Center Is Issuing Advisories On Tropical Storm Tammy...located About 35 Miles East-southeast Of Jacksonville Florida. Satellite Images And Surface Observations Indicate That The Area Of Disturbed Weather In The Extreme Northwestern Caribbean Sea And Northeastern Yucatan Has Changed Little In Organization During The Past Several Hours. Altough Surfaces Pressures Are Low In The Area...upper-level Winds Are Not Conducive For A Rapid Development. This System Is Expected To Move Toward The North-northeast Spreading Heavy Rains And Gusty Winds Over Western Cuba. Shower Activity Associated With A Tropical Wave Located About 1550 Miles East Of The Southern Windward Islands Continues Well Organized. Surface Observations Indicate That A Low Pressure May Be Forming With 20 To 25 Mph Winds. However...any Additional Development Will Be Slow To Occur. Elsewhere... Tropical Storm Formation Is Not Expected Through Thursday. Forecaster Avila $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vicocala Posted October 5, 2005 Author #3 Share Posted October 5, 2005 five day forecasted track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vicocala Posted October 5, 2005 Author #4 Share Posted October 5, 2005 Tropical Storm Tammy Discussion Number 3 Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl 5 Pm Edt Wed Oct 05 2005 The Reconnaissance Aircraft Investigating Tammy Found Peak Flight Level Winds Of 53 Kt About 150 Nm Northeast Of The Center. These Data Support A Surface Estimate Of 45 Kt. The Crew Made Visual Estimates Of 50 To 55 Kt In A Few Spots So The Advisory Estimate Could Be A Shade Low. Since The Center Is Only A Few Hours From Landfall...little Additional Increase In Strength Is Likely. However...with The Strongest Winds Being Well-removed From The Center...only A Slow Decrease In Strength Is Likely After The Center Moves Inland. The Center Make A Jab At The Coastline Late This Morning But Then Returned To Its Previous Track...and The Initial Motion Is 330/12. Tammy Remains Located Between A Mid- To Upper-level Low Over The Northeastern Gulf Of Mexico And A Deep-layer Ridge Over The Mid-atlantic States. This Synoptic Pattern Is Expected To Turn Tammy To The Northwest Over The Next 12 Hours Or So...and The Circulation Is Expected To Dissipate After About 24 Hours. Forecaster Franklin Forecast Positions And Max Winds Initial 05/2100z 30.1n 81.2w 45 Kt 12hr Vt 06/0600z 31.4n 82.5w 35 Kt...inland 24hr Vt 06/1800z 32.2n 83.8w 25 Kt...dissipating 36hr Vt 07/0600z...dissipated $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveLifeAtSea Posted October 6, 2005 #5 Share Posted October 6, 2005 As always Vic, THANKS for keeping us updated as to what's going on in the tropics. I hope there are no bad effects of this storm on any body! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chimera Posted October 6, 2005 #6 Share Posted October 6, 2005 Vic- Thanx from me too. You are making me drag up stuff that I learned in a meterology course a long long time ago. I appreciate it. :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vicocala Posted October 6, 2005 Author #7 Share Posted October 6, 2005 Happy to do so. I get so much from the boards I want to give back a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vicocala Posted October 6, 2005 Author #8 Share Posted October 6, 2005 Tropical Weather Outlook...corrected Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl 530 Am Edt Thu Oct 6 2005 ...corrected Location Of Tammy And Wording In Last Paragraph... For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico... The National Hurricane Center Is Issuing Advisories On Tropical Storm Tammy... Centered Inland About 130 Miles West-southwest Of Savannah Georgia. Satellite Imagery And Surface Observations... Including From Noaa Buoy 42056 In The Northwestern Caribbean Sea... Indicate That An Area Of Surface Low Pressure Is Centered Near The Western Tip Of Cuba... With A Surface Trough Extending Northward Over The Eastern Gulf Of Mexico. However... This System Is Poorly Organized With Most Of The Associated Shower And Thunderstorm Activity Located Well To The East Of The Surface Low. Upper Level Winds Are Not Very Conducive For Tropical Cyclone Formation... And Any Development Is Expected To Be Slow To Occur. An Air Force Reconnaissance Aircraft Is Available To Investigate This System Later Today... If Necessary. Even If Tropical Cyclone Development Does Not Occur... This System Will Likely Spread Heavy Rains And Gusty Winds Over Portions Of Cuba... South Florida... And The Florida Keys During The Next Day Or Two As It Moves Northward. A Low Pressure Area Along A Tropical Wave Is Located About 1300 Miles East Of The Southern Windward Islands And Is Moving Westward At About 20 Mph. This System Continues To Gradually Organize... And Upper Level Winds Appear Conducive For Additional Development. Elsewhere... Tropical Storm Formation Is Not Expected Through Friday. Forecaster Knabb $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vicocala Posted October 6, 2005 Author #9 Share Posted October 6, 2005 Tropical Storm Tammy Intermediate Advisory Number 5a Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl 8 Am Edt Thu Oct 06 2005 ...tammy Continues Inland...winds Beginning To Diminish... A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect From Altamaha Sound Georgia Northward To South Santee River South Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning Will Likely Be Discontinued Later This Morning. Please Consult Products Issued By Local National Weather Service Forecast Offices Concerning Possible Gale Warnings Outside Of The Tropical Storm Warning Area. For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued By Your Local Weather Office. At 8 Am Edt...1200z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Tammy Was Estimated Near Latitude 31.8 North... Longitude 84.5 West. This Position Is Inland Near Albany Georgia. However... Most Of The Strongest Winds And Heavy Rains Associated With Tammy Are Well To The North And East Of The Center And Are Still Affecting The Coastline In The Warning Area. The Center Of Tammy Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 14 Mph... And This Motion General Motion Is Expected To Continue Today... With A Gradual Decrease In Forward Speed. The Circulation Of Tammy Is Expected To Dissipate Within The Next 24 Hours. Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 40 Mph... With Higher Gusts...in A Few Squalls Over Water And Near The Coastline In The Warning Area. Weakening Is Forecast As The Center Continues Moving Inland... And Tammy Will Likely Become A Tropical Depression Later This Morning. Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 200 Miles To The Northeast From The Center. Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1005 Mb...29.68 Inches. Tammy Is Expected To Produce 3 To 5 Inches Of Rainfall Over Portions Of Southeastern Georgia... Eastern South Carolina... And Southeastern North Carolina... With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 8 To 10 Inches. Isolated Tornadoes Are Possible Today Over Southeastern Georgia And Eastern South Carolina. Repeating The 8 Am Edt Position...31.8 N... 84.5 W. Movement Toward...west-northwest Near 14 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds... 40 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1005 Mb. The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At 11 Am Edt. Forecaster Franklin $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sage Posted October 6, 2005 #10 Share Posted October 6, 2005 Thanks Vicocala. You continue to do a great job on keeping us updated. It looks as though this next one towards Cuba and south Florida is going to give us a lot of rain. I just hope things calm down before you head out on your cruise. :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oceanwench Posted October 6, 2005 #11 Share Posted October 6, 2005 We are getting a double whammy here, rain from tammy and stan! It's supposed to rain through Saturday. :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAJOKG Posted October 6, 2005 #12 Share Posted October 6, 2005 We are getting a double whammy here, rain from tammy and stan!It's supposed to rain through Saturday. :( Hi Oceanwench -- Believe it or not the sun was shining brightly yesterday here in Martin County and it's still sunny today, albeit with some rain showers through the sunshine....only in Florida. We leave out of FLL on Oct. 16 and we're watching closely. VICOCALA - Let me add my thanks for your storm postings. You are obviously very much appreciated! :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vicocala Posted October 6, 2005 Author #13 Share Posted October 6, 2005 Kajokg, Enjoy your cruise, we both need to be on the watch for the storm that is east of the Leeward Islands, it could possibly be trouble for both our cruises about the time we embark. Let's pray that doesn't happen. And you too are welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vicocala Posted October 6, 2005 Author #14 Share Posted October 6, 2005 Tropical Weather Outlook Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl 1130 Am Edt Thu Oct 6 2005 For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico... The National Hurricane Center Has Issued Its Last Advisory On Tropical Depression Tammy...centered Over Extreme Southeastern Alabama. Future Public Advisories On Tammy Will Be Issued By The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center...under Awips Header Tcpat1 And Wmo Header Wtnt31 Kwnh. A Small Area Of Low Pressure Is Located Near The Western Tip Of Cuba. Shower Activity With This System Is Poorly Organized...and Upper-level Winds In The Eastern Gulf Of Mexico Are Expected To Become Less Favorable For Tropical Cyclone Development Over The Next Day Or So. Nevertheless...this System Will Likely Spread Heavy Rains And Gusty Winds Over Portions Of Cuba...the Florida Keys...and The Florida Peninsula Over The Next Day Or Two As It Moves North-northeastward. The Large Tropical Wave Located About 1150 Miles East Of The Southern Windward Islands Continues Westward At 15 To 20 Mph. This System Has Not Become Any Better Organized This Morning...but Some Development Is Still Possible Over The Next Day Or So. Elsewhere... Tropical Storm Formation Is Not Expected Through Friday. Forecaster Franklin $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oceanwench Posted October 6, 2005 #15 Share Posted October 6, 2005 Hi Oceanwench -- Believe it or not the sun was shining brightly yesterday here in Martin County and it's still sunny today, albeit with some rain showers through the sunshine....only in Florida. We leave out of FLL on Oct. 16 and we're watching closely. Katy, Hi! OK, I admit there are some periods of sunshine in Martin County [Palm Beach County too], but the rain bands have been awful and sporadic. Right now it is clouding up, and we're due for another downpour. Definitely not beach weather! I have a convertible, and I can't remember the last time I drove with the top down. That's too risky here these last few days! :eek: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatherInFlorida Posted October 6, 2005 #16 Share Posted October 6, 2005 Anyone who wants up to date info on all these storms can get it in even more detail with maps included by just going directly to the NOAA site. In case you don't have the link, here it is. It's a wonderful place for storm info like this and you can access it anytime at all. National Hurricane Center / Tropical Prediction Center If you go to that site and just click on the most recent "Public Advisory" you'll have the very latest info. Believe me, I sure have it bookmarked!!!:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAJOKG Posted October 6, 2005 #17 Share Posted October 6, 2005 Katy, Hi! OK, I admit there are some periods of sunshine in Martin County [Palm Beach County too], but the rain bands have been awful and sporadic. Right now it is clouding up, and we're due for another downpour. Definitely not beach weather! I have a convertible, and I can't remember the last time I drove with the top down. That's too risky here these last few days! :eek: Well, it's here. Lots of rain....yuk! Keep your roof up. Looks like a week of this stuff. :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oceanwench Posted October 6, 2005 #18 Share Posted October 6, 2005 Wow, Katy, did you just hear that thunder? Scared me out of my seat! Bring back the sunshine! :) Heather, thanks for posting that link. That site is bookmarked by most Floridians I know. Lots of good info, charts, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAJOKG Posted October 6, 2005 #19 Share Posted October 6, 2005 Wow, Katy, did you just hear that thunder? Scared me out of my seat! Bring back the sunshine! :) Heather, thanks for posting that link. That site is bookmarked by most Floridians I know. Lots of good info, charts, etc. No thunder yet. How far north or south are you in Palm Beach County? We are in the middle of Martin, I guess. Hope Sound, Jupiter, Juno and North Palm Beach are south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vicocala Posted October 6, 2005 Author #20 Share Posted October 6, 2005 To the moderators: Why pray tell was this thread moved from the HAL board? I have been posting this information for HAL posters all season and it has been well received as a valuable service from the many thanks I have gotten. It is also an insult to everyone who lives in an area that may be affected by a hurricane that this is deemed "fun stuff". I think an apology and reinstatement of the thread are in order, even though Tammy is no longer an issue, I use the most current tropical storm thread to keep others advised as to what other potential storms are lurking. Thanks and i hope this receives some prompt attention! :mad: :mad: :mad: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DonMaryCar Posted October 6, 2005 #21 Share Posted October 6, 2005 Vicola I just wanted to thank you for all your reports. As a midwesterner who has minimal knowledge of hurricane activity, I really appreciate your reports. We are sailing out of Ft. Lauderdale on the 16th so hoping nothing big blows that direction. Actually we are arriving on the 12th hoping to spend some time on your sunny beaches, not so sure that is going to be the case if the clouds keep blowing in. Thanks again Vic Mary:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vicocala Posted October 6, 2005 Author #22 Share Posted October 6, 2005 You are quite welcome Mary. It is for folks like you that the information is most valuable as you may not know how to check the links for hurricanes and/or may not have the time to research it. I realize that most of the information is on the Weather Channel but sometimes I can get it and get it out before the Weather Channel does, and if someone does not have access to a TV or cable then it becomes more valuable. Thanks for your vote of confidence and I am glad you found the thread. Have a happy and safe journey and Bon Voyage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oceanwench Posted October 6, 2005 #23 Share Posted October 6, 2005 No thunder yet. How far north or south are you in Palm Beach County? We are in the middle of Martin, I guess. Hope Sound, Jupiter, Juno and North Palm Beach are south of us. Katy: I am across the bridge from you in Stuart on Kanner Highway. I live in PBC, work in MC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatherInFlorida Posted October 6, 2005 #24 Share Posted October 6, 2005 Hi, Vic ... the information comes up immediately on the NOAA site which is why I posted it above. The report is not so easily accessible on The Weather Channel site. What I like about the NOAA site is that it also offers easy to read maps, etc., for those of us who aren't meteorologically inclined:o . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oceanwench Posted October 6, 2005 #25 Share Posted October 6, 2005 And we all know the NOAA site is easier to access than CC! ;) I would guess this thread is more suited to this area as it is not cruise-related at this point. Tammy is not going to interfere with anyone's cruise. Vic, I think it would be more beneficial if you just posted the link to NOAA, then those interested in the storm could just click and go to the site. Pasting in all of that makes no sense, when a link will do the same thing. Then you could add your own observations after the link. I know when I read posts that have a lot of information pasted into them from another source, I usually skip them. I'd rather read what the poster has to say himself/herself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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