Racer26 Posted November 29, 2018 #126 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Except that you aren't losing 86cents per loss. You're losing $15 when you lose, and winning $17-25 when you win. On average you lose 86 cents. Only takes 140ish $15 losses to lose $2200 worth of wagers. Given you lose about half the time, 300 resolved wagers should do it. In craps, a pass line wager rarely takes more than 5 minutes to resolve. That's 25 hours. On my last few week long cruises I spent over 40 hours in the casino. Very doable. Certainly over a shorter run than millions of trials the variance is higher. That's why I mentioned the variance - on blackjack as I said, 95% of the time you're going to be within 2 std deviations of the average after 440 trials, which is about $120. All of this is very calculable. If you play the promo chips only until you lose them all, and then leave, on blackjack or pass line or other low-edge wagers, you will come out with more money than the $2k you spent more than 95% of the time. For this to work the way royal intends, the gambler must continue wagering after that. And most probably will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clean1owner Posted November 29, 2018 #127 Share Posted November 29, 2018 You are correct about the win vs loss numbers. I was quite tired last night while posting, and missed that part of the calculation. I kept thinking my numbers seemed rather high, but couldn't come up with the reason why. I was too focused on the average. This is a perfect example of why you should never gamble while drinking, or are very tired. One or 2 mental errors per hour while gambling will greatly increase the house edge and, in the case of counting cards totally wipe out any player edge. One other factor in the discussion that I don't recall being brought up is some of the little hidden rules some cruise ship casinos like to use. One of the most glaring is only paying even money on a blackjack, unless playing green or better. Or only paying even money on Lucky Buck blackjacks. I have also seen them tweak the odds into their favor on place and odds bets. All of this greatly increases the house edge. I personally don't think the variance is very calculable. In real life there are way too many wild swings one way or the other. While on the NCL Epic, I was playing Craps one night and we had a shooter actually Pass 17 times in a row. It was one of the most amazing things I have ever witnessed. Now me, being a Don't Pass / Don't Come player simply for the .02 of 1% less house edge, climbed aboard the train late, and had to occasionally jump off because I just knew that a Don't Pass was well over due. Therefore, I didn't make out nearly as well as most of my tablemates. One of the problems with knowing too much about probability, averages and odds is that you are banging your head on the table when they don't work out the way you think they are supposed to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Welly9 Posted November 29, 2018 #128 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Another thing you fail to mention...Fun & Entertainment, the Whole cruise is for fun and entertainment, relaxing! When you start to calculate averages, and winning vs losing odds, why are you there then? Where is the fun in that? I go with a set amount, gambling is gambling, doesnt matter how you want to slice and dice it, I play craps most of all, why? the best odds, thats all I care about. Sometime I will sit at a poker table to banter with others, sometimes just sit at a slot machine and go at my own pace... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Racer26 Posted November 29, 2018 #129 Share Posted November 29, 2018 18 minutes ago, Welly9 said: Another thing you fail to mention...Fun & Entertainment, the Whole cruise is for fun and entertainment, relaxing! When you start to calculate averages, and winning vs losing odds, why are you there then? Where is the fun in that? I go with a set amount, gambling is gambling, doesnt matter how you want to slice and dice it, I play craps most of all, why? the best odds, thats all I care about. Sometime I will sit at a poker table to banter with others, sometimes just sit at a slot machine and go at my own pace... I gamble because I enjoy it. I know the odds because I want to gamble longer for my $. I play pass and not don't on craps because it's generally more *fun* and it's not *that* much worse in terms of house edge. At home many years ago we had a scratch ticket promotion that was run and in addition to the ticket being a $2 scratcher that paid about average for those, it had a section you could win $5, $10, $25, or $50 in free slot play at the local casino. I ran the numbers on it and proved there was an advantage to be had there for a smart player - I made $10k over the course of a couple months going to the casino almost every day and knowing I'd walk out a winner. Was *awesome*. By the end I had bought almost 1% of all the tickets that were printed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Welly9 Posted November 29, 2018 #130 Share Posted November 29, 2018 11 minutes ago, Racer26 said: I gamble because I enjoy it. I know the odds because I want to gamble longer for my $. I play pass and not don't on craps because it's generally more *fun* and it's not *that* much worse in terms of house edge. At home many years ago we had a scratch ticket promotion that was run and in addition to the ticket being a $2 scratcher that paid about average for those, it had a section you could win $5, $10, $25, or $50 in free slot play at the local casino. I ran the numbers on it and proved there was an advantage to be had there for a smart player - I made $10k over the course of a couple months going to the casino almost every day and knowing I'd walk out a winner. Was *awesome*. By the end I had bought almost 1% of all the tickets that were printed. 🤑👍 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tekguy26 Posted November 29, 2018 Author #131 Share Posted November 29, 2018 22 hours ago, slotmomma3 said: Ok I got a response!!!! I am posting below. Dear Roslyn, Thank you for contacting Royal Caribbean’s Club Royale! We apologize for any confusion. To clarify, the original purchased chips will earn you points when played but not the bonus chips from the promotion. If we can be of further assistance, please feel free to call and speak with one of our Club Royale agents toll-free at 1-888-561-2234. We are available from 8:00 am to 10:00 pm, Monday through Friday, and from 9:00 am to 5:30 pm, Saturday and Sunday (EST). You may also reach us at ClubRoyale@rccl.com. Kind Regards, Julie V. Club Royale Agent | Consumer Outreach Royal Caribbean International | Azamara Club Cruises (P) 888.561.2234 | (F) 305.358.9295 OK talk about mixed messages. Why is she talking about purchased chips and bonus chips like they're different then? I actually received a response from Julie as well, then I was on the phone with another girl, and she gave me a different explanation. She asked me if was familiar with how free play bets work. I said yes, then she said only the bonus works that way and the rest are on my account which I can draw from. Anyway, maybe I just hear what I want to hear. The promotion just doesn't make sense. So you are LITERALLY starting $2000 in the red before you even get on the ship, then you need to win it back, for a CHANCE to win earn $200, if you never lose a single hand. The amount of time I expect to spend there, I'd go through $2000, but I prefer to do it on my terms and take out the money when I need it. I'm starting to smell a scam here if the original amount can't be redeemed at anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Racer26 Posted November 30, 2018 #132 Share Posted November 30, 2018 From my family currently on-board Serenade, their casino host says the promo starts next voyage, and will be handled as $2k in cash chips, + $200 in promo chips. I'm pretty sure I would've done it even if it was $2200 in promo chips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Racer26 Posted November 30, 2018 #133 Share Posted November 30, 2018 And further emails saying that no, all 2200 will be promo. Seems about like usual. Miami made some half-baked decision and the staff on the ships are left to pick up the pieces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slotmomma3 Posted November 30, 2018 #134 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Well the offer is no longer in the cruise planner in any of my booked cruises. I guess they are either not doing it, or are clarifying the T &C in the offer. Typical Royal Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken at the beach Posted November 30, 2018 #135 Share Posted November 30, 2018 39 minutes ago, slotmomma3 said: Well the offer is no longer in the cruise planner in any of my booked cruises. I guess they are either not doing it, or are clarifying the T &C in the offer. Typical Royal Caribbean. It’s still availsble on my Dec 23 cruise on Allure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdear Posted November 30, 2018 #136 Share Posted November 30, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said: It’s still availsble on my Dec 23 cruise on Allure Still on my planner too, and we leave Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
0mzzz Posted November 30, 2018 #137 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Removed from my planner. Allure April 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
belmontcrew Posted November 30, 2018 #138 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Removed from mine as well. Symphony Oct 19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RC_Cruisers Posted November 30, 2018 #139 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Still in my planner for Symphony Dec 2018 but my planner for Symphony Nov 2019. Trial period??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tekguy26 Posted November 30, 2018 Author #140 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Still see it in my cruise planner for Jan 6 Oasis. Thinking some more about some of the logistics of the wager tracking for this promo. For slots its so simple since every spin can be accounted for. But for table games, someone would literally have to watch you make every wager which wouldn't be feasible since it takes time just to have a supervisor do a check change. Also the only way I could see them keep track is by removing the promotional free play after each wager. If they dont do that, how would they know that every chip was wagered. Some here have said that free play chips are only collected when you lose. Assuming you buy $2000 free play, they need you to play through $2200, not lose $2200. By leaving a winning free play wager after it's been played would actually be to your advantage not the casinos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slotmomma3 Posted November 30, 2018 #141 Share Posted November 30, 2018 2 hours ago, Ourusualbeach said: It’s still availsble on my Dec 23 cruise on Allure It was on all 4 of my booked cruises: Anthem Feb 2019 Adventure March 2019 Anthem Sept 2019 Harmony Dec. 2019 It is now gone from all of them. Maybe because of my email they think I am a troublemakerlol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Racer26 Posted November 30, 2018 #142 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Gone from my upcoming cruises too. Wish I had pulled the trigger. Maybe it'll come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Welly9 Posted November 30, 2018 #143 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Its in the Planner for our Independence Cruise for next week, but not in our Jewel 16 ntr March 2019 I am gonna purchase one or both slots and chips and will keep everyone posted on what occurs...just not sure of amounts yet as it is only a 4 ntr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSPGuy Posted December 1, 2018 #144 Share Posted December 1, 2018 I purchased the slot credit for our Allure sailing on Sunday. Will try to report back regarding points and ability to cash out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare mk-ultra Posted December 1, 2018 #145 Share Posted December 1, 2018 (edited) Wow. What a marketing mess. If the offer is: pre-buy $2000 in regular chips and get $200 in promo chips and a stupid scratcher as a bonus, I'd be in on it. For me, that's a no-brainer as long as that $2K is in regular (i.e. trade in anytime for cash) chips. I'm going to play that much in two nights. There's at least some (very small) added value there. Which is why I can't imagine that's actually what they're offering. Reading the fine print, it sounds like I'd be buying $2000 in promo chips (ugh) and getting $200 more in (ugh) promo chips as a "bonus" which would be an incredibly stupid thing to do. Going to sit this one out until we've actually got some verified experiences on how this pans out. I have a hard time believing they're doing anything that increases your value for laying out $2K up-front. Edited December 1, 2018 by mk-ultra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdear Posted December 1, 2018 #146 Share Posted December 1, 2018 29 minutes ago, mk-ultra said: Wow. What a marketing mess. If the offer is: pre-buy $2000 in regular chips and get $200 in promo chips and a stupid scratcher as a bonus, I'd be in on it. For me, that's a no-brainer as long as that $2K is in regular (i.e. trade in anytime for cash) chips. I'm going to play that much in two nights. There's at least some (very small) added value there. Which is why I can't imagine that's actually what they're offering. Reading the fine print, it sounds like I'd be buying $2000 in promo chips (ugh) and getting $200 more in (ugh) promo chips as a "bonus" which would be an incredibly stupid thing to do. Going to sit this one out until we've actually got some verified experiences on how this pans out. I have a hard time believing they're doing anything that increases your value for laying out $2K up-front. I agree it's very confusing. I would be willing to bet we get different stories or "rules" from different ships. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KelJ Posted December 1, 2018 #147 Share Posted December 1, 2018 The offer has disappeared from my 1/6/19 Liberty cruise planner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZoeyVictoria Posted December 1, 2018 #148 Share Posted December 1, 2018 I still have the offer on Brilliance on 1/31/19, but it is gone from the Symphony, Mariner, and Adventure later in 2019. I put in in my cart for the Brilliance but did not check out, just to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolffie89 Posted December 1, 2018 #149 Share Posted December 1, 2018 (edited) It's been confirmed by someone on the cruise ship now that all chips are indeed promo chips non chashable. Edited December 1, 2018 by Wolffie89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tekguy26 Posted December 1, 2018 Author #150 Share Posted December 1, 2018 12 minutes ago, Wolffie89 said: It's been confirmed by someone on the cruise ship now that all chips are indeed promo chips non chashable. Thanks. Finally some confirmation. So what about payouts? Are you earning real money on each wager? I mean are you getting cashable chips as you win? It's in your interest to play every chip you have since since they cant be cashed out on their own. I assume they take away the promotional bet after every wager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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