CRUISE PORTS - LINES - NEXT SHUTDOWN BLOW?

[Formula280SS]

IMO, there is such momentum (which I believe there are factors way beyond health and science at play); such as the NBA, MLB, NCAA, etc. shut-downs or extensions for 30-60 days and the 180 degree partisan discord in DC, I can't help but believe the beleaguered cruise line industry is "next" with regard to US* ports.  (* many non-US ports are already banning entry globally as reported by cruise line related websites).

 

Whether it is Seattle, Washington State, CDS, Coast Guard or US Government, the Alaska cruises look to be in the target scopes (the season is still a bit away, but the narratives are out there visibly).

 

However, IMO, the big player?  Florida and the Florida ports.  100,000 passengers, 200,000 disembarking and embarking every weekend, appear to be vulnerable.

 

It just seems like one more domino is to fall on the cruise line, now on these ports; whether appropriate or not.  IMO, likely a delay or rest-period.

 

However, it will be financially 'lethal to the top 3-4 cruise lines and their investors.  Their stock are down massively already, a close of the Alaskan cruise ports, more significantly the Florida cruise ports, could likely topple the value of these cruise lines.  It may cause cancellations or holding periods on new ship orders, it may result in more industry consolidation or, ironically, it makes the cruise lines subject to take-over risk by foreign sovereign sources (how ironic would it be for Asian sovereign funds to acquire cruise lines for 5-10 cents on the dollar from 2 months ago)?

 

Granted, the original hits in the MSM re: Princess ships were sensational.  However, such hysteria has not been sustained in Florida cruise itineraries except for false flags on some ports denying ship access.

 

So, regardless of the actual facts on the ground (or on the ships), IMO, I believe the US cruise ports could be next.  Devastating the cruise lines, employees, host ports and itinerary ports and continuing the collapsing of the stock values of the lines; all while putting passengers booked and planned in a virtual "what-do-I-do" dilemma on a daily basis.

 

Hoping to be wrong.

 

 

 

 

 

[Isabella Benjamin]

There's a ton of discussions behind the scenes between the cruise lobbyists and the government.  Everyone is advising the cruise industry take a break, we'll see if and when that happens.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/coronavirus-pandemic-tests-clout-of-cruise-industry-and-its-long-standing-ties-to-trump/2020/03/12/3f79a1ba-63aa-11ea-912d-d98032ec8e25_story.html

[Named-Tawny]

I've been trying to guess at what would happen if US ports closed to Cruises (or at least Boston did), and actually, I kinda like it.

Quebec CIty - Quebec city.  Dropping Bar Harbour, Portland, and Boston, adding St Pierre et Miquelon and a sea day.*

*or, you know, they cancel things entirely.  Who knows at this point?????

lol

[Formula280SS]

12 hours ago, Isabella Benjamin said:

There's a ton of discussions behind the scenes between the cruise lobbyists and the government.  Everyone is advising the cruise industry take a break, we'll see if and when that happens.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/coronavirus-pandemic-tests-clout-of-cruise-industry-and-its-long-standing-ties-to-trump/2020/03/12/3f79a1ba-63aa-11ea-912d-d98032ec8e25_story.html

 

I believe that to be true.  Again, there is such overwhelming "group reaction" across so many industries where people gather; sports, schools, working at large offices, it is hard to see the cruise lines at U.S. ports not be forced to capitulate even if no further infections occur on the ships.

 

Take Seattle for example, groups of 250 or more are not allowed (I do not know if it is a regulation or a recommendation).  If extended to ports, how do passengers assemble to embark or disembark, and what is the 4,500 passenger group "on the ship" while docked?

 

If Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Port Canaveral move for a pause they'll get it.

 

Again, back to your point, I believe there is serious pressure on the cruise lines behind the scenes and the economic impact (passengers, crew, port workers, etc.) is the only card they can play to stay 'afloat in the short term.

 

Back to my OP,  the top line stocks are 'crushed.  Some would say it's only shareholder's that lose, but it moves exponentially beyond that when cash flow is gone, market debt isn't available and creditors and employees are no longer able to be paid.  

 

Without government assistance, in such a case, the cruise lines would be forced to weather the worst of all financial storms which is reorganizing via bankruptcy.  It can be done, but it is a nasty, unclean and bitter process.

 

I guess we'll wait and see.

[Formula280SS]

22 hours ago, Isabella Benjamin said:

There's a ton of discussions behind the scenes between the cruise lobbyists and the government.  Everyone is advising the cruise industry take a break, we'll see if and when that happens.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/coronavirus-pandemic-tests-clout-of-cruise-industry-and-its-long-standing-ties-to-trump/2020/03/12/3f79a1ba-63aa-11ea-912d-d98032ec8e25_story.html

 

Well you were right, they've been 'convinced to ''take a break."