Cruise Question

[amglory]

My wife and I are booked on a Seabourn cruise that leaves from Dover on June 7, 2021. I have paid almost $10,000 as a deposit and my final payment is due on January 20, 2021. My question is, how likely is the cruise likely to go, given the surge in Covid 19 cases?

I don't want to pay the final amount and then have to wait for a refund (even if one is available) should Seabourn cancel the cruise. I am inclining toward cancelling before January 20. 

I would welcome any words of wisdom or comments.

Thanks,

Alec Nowers

[wesport]

When I do a mock booking for that date, I get a final payment on 2/7/21.  I would constantly check the website, as when you get closer to final payment, sometimes they push the final ahead another 30 days due to the current situation. If you have a TA they may or may not alert you.  Listening to Dr. Fauci yesterday, he said with the J and J and the Janssen vaccines getting close to approval, anyone in the US who wants the vaccine will have it by April. Europe is starting to vaccinate now as is the US.  If you get closer to final, and they don't change the final date until later you will get the deposit back if you cancel. Plan on not getting you deposit back for 60 days if you decide to cancel. Things are changing daily. It's a personal decision. My recent Seabourn deposit refund only took 30 days. My last year paid in full took 60 days.  If it were me, I would constantly check the final payment date as it might change. Others may say it too early to cruise and get the deposit back. Don't take any chances.  Totally your decision based on your situation. 

[wesport]

I guess you are on the long 30 day cruise with final on 1/28/21.   Seabourn also starts the 15% penalty prior to final. Check with you TA or Seabourn for details. 

[Fletcher]

Alec - At the moment I would say the chances of this cruise happening are no more than 50-50, probably less than that.  Personally I would not be booking it myself - the first cruise I am looking at departs in October and I won't book it until at least I have received the vaccine shots. However, your cruise has a lot of UK ports, one Irish and then Iceland so it's not a multi-nation job. (It's a shame the Quest doesn't call in at the Faroes but I think they are currently banning all cruise ships.)  I think anyone booking any cruise before a vaccine is accepted more or less worldwide must be prepared for cancellations, changes in itinerary and even last-minute cancelled ports when you are aboard.  People are saying that shore excursions will have to be ship excursions and no independent tours.  That might be so.  All things considered, I'd bail out.  

Edited December 28, 2020 by Fletcher

[Kayak lk]

We had multiple cruise reservations canceled by SB, every time they canceled the trip a couple of weeks before the final payment would be do. You might just wait until just before final payment to see if they cancel. There is no difference if you cancel a month before or a day before FP.

[cruiseej]

Obviously none of us can do more than speculate without guesses about when cruising will resume. Two things to think about:

1. If vaccines are required, passengers will need them by prior to the cruise, which means getting a first dose by about May 1. That may be overly optimistic.
2. Even if passengers in the US and Europe can get vaccines in time, will Seabourn be able to assemble a full staff of international crew, all of whom also must be vaccinated before they leave their home countries and travel to join the ship in May to get it up to speed for cruising? That seems even more unlikely to me. Some countries where crew members live may just be starting to get vaccines by late spring; some may not have any yet. And younger cruise ship crew likely won't be at the front of the line in their home countries. 

[markham]

I doubt that crew on leave in their home countries will have to wait for the vaccine as long as you might imagine. It would make sense for the industry to take responsibility for this aspect of crew preparations for sailing again for mass inoculations to be done by clinics hired for the purpose or by Carnival itself in major centers where vaccine distribution is underway now.

 

This may not be this or next month but for now we can foresee a major role for the private sector in partnership with governments to help restore vitality to industry and reduce the burden on the State. In a few months there will be a few more vaccines approved. The manufacturing, distribution and administration of the inoculations will be smoother and more widespread. Examples of breakthroughs include the AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson vaccines. The former, likely to be approved this week in the UK, requires less intensive storage logistics and the J&J vaccine will likely require only one dose. 
 

Next week, the first week of January, we will see the number of vaccinations, and the ways of getting the job done, really break out in a number of countries. I am hoping for passengers and crew to return to cruising with confidence and purpose this summer.

 

Happy and healthy sailing!

[TRIPACIAN]

We are on the 14 day cruise (May 24th to June 7th) that disembarks the day yours begins.  I have fully paid for the cruise even though it probably will be canceled.  

[cruiseej]

18 hours ago, markham said:

I doubt that crew on leave in their home countries will have to wait for the vaccine as long as you might imagine. It would make sense for the industry to take responsibility for this aspect of crew preparations for sailing again for mass inoculations to be done by clinics hired for the purpose or by Carnival itself in major centers where vaccine distribution is underway now.

 

Maybe this will emerge in time, but as of now, there's no apparent path for private procurement of vaccine doses. The currently approved vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna are 100% committed at least into the summer or fall to contracts with various countries -- there's no availability for a companies like Carnival, Royal Caribbean and Norwegian to come in any buy up a million doses of vaccines. And it's not just the cruise lines; would they have easier access than airlines? hotels? sports teams? When some countries may not get any vaccines at all until late this year? If more vaccines are approved, it will improve the constrained supply, but there are a lot of countries desperate to procure doses for their people.

 

And will cruise lines fly thousands of crew members to cities to get vaccinated, and put them up in hotels in isolation until they get their two doses and build up their antibodies. Will those crew members leave home to travel around the world, before being vaccinated, and knowing how difficult a time many of them had getting home in the spring? Will high-end cruise lines like Seabourn have trouble recruiting and training their staffs after some percentage of former cruise ship workers decide not to return?

 

I'm not overly pessimistic about the resumption of cruising, but I'm trying to be realistic. As the cruise line CEOs have said, it will be a slow and gradual restart. Not all the ships will jump back into service early this summer. There will be setbacks on the road to post-pandemic normalcy. And if the cruise lines can't predict when things can restart, surely none of us can -- there are too many unknowns and variables still.