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Tropical Weather Outlook Wed Jul 21 530 pm


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Tropical Weather Outlook
National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
530 Pm Edt Wed Jul 21 2004

For The North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

Thunderstorm activity with the topical wave south of Haiti has
changed little in organization this afternoon...and there is no
evidence of a cosed surface circulation. Upper-level winds have
become somewhat more favorable...and there is the potential for
slow development during the next day or so. Even if this system
does not develop into a tropical cyclone...locally heavy rains will
affect portions of Hispaniola tonight and likely reach Jamaica on
Thursday as the wave moves West-northwestward at about 20 Mph.
These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud
slides in mountainous areas.

The reconnaissance aircraft scheduled for this afternoon was
cancelled due to mechanical problems. Another aircraft is
scheduled to iInvestigate the system Thursday Morning...if
necessary.

Elsewhere...tropical Storm formation is not expected through
Thursday.

Forecaster Beven
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