Tropical Depression forming in the Caribbean

[TVMet]

From the National Hurricane Center...

 

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY. AN

AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY

INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE. A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM AT

ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD

THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE

CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE

TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS

JAMAICA TONIGHT.

 

Forecast models:

 

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early2.png

[BND]

double post

[BND]

That's why we go to FL (WDW) and cruise in Nov. Looks like it's supposed to head across mostly open water and shouldn't affect most cruises directly.

[Sushiman58]

headed tomorrow to Miami and off on the Imagnation for West Carib

 

 

Hope we dont run into storm

[pauline664]

headed tomorrow to Miami and off on the Imagnation for West Carib

 

 

Hope we dont run into storm

Be safe. We are jealous it isn't us leaving tomorrow:D Have a great crusie. Our prayers for a fun and happy sailing go with you.:D

[jessemon]

Oh nooooooo......the sky is falling.......LOL

Tis the season........;)

[cruzn buckeye]

Yes it tis the season....

 

Thanks TVmet .... we like the way you keep us informed....

[Fam_Cruise]

Say it isn't so, and smack dab in hurricane season at that. ;)

[TVMet]

Saturday morning update on Caribbean system....

 

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL

WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER

ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

AT 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE

YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS

SYSTEM.

 

Latest model plot from Colo. State...

 

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early3.png

 

Tropical Depression 3 form off US Coast...

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008

800 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

 

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS A LITTLE....

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING

PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24

HOURS.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH

SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS

THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH

AREA.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS

ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT

65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND

ABOUT 285 MILES...455 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH

CAROLINA.

 

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS

BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH OVER THE

NEXT TWO DAYS...KEEPING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION VERY CLOSE TO

THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA.

 

RADAR DATA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN CHARLESTON

AND WILMINGTON INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED

TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING

IS POSSIBLE AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER

TODAY.

 

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

 

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE

COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS.

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/083212.shtml?3day?large#contents

[luschen]

We are leaving on the Conquest out of Galveston tomorrow. Our itinerary has us sailing to Jamaica from Sunday to Tuesday. Meanwhile, the wave is supposed to turn in to a depression or maybe storm and hit the Yucatan sometime Monday. Looking at the map, there isn't much room between the Yucatan and Cuba for both a tropical storm and the Conquest on Monday morning. Maybe some rough seas or more likely a modified itinerary.

[halos]

That's why we go to FL (WDW) and cruise in Nov. Looks like it's supposed to head across mostly open water and shouldn't affect most cruises directly.

 

LOL...even Nov isn't safe. Llast year we caught the tail end of a hurricane in Nov.

 

We booked a 5 day to Bermuda for this Sept. I'm going to be mentally prepared to sail right back up to New England.

if we dock in Portland, ME, I'll get off the ship, grab a cab and go home and pick up my mail :rolleyes:

[*Mach*]

Looking at the latest GOES loop there doesn't appear to be any rotation in the system at all... A Hurricane Hunter has been sent to investigate further. Currently it seems to be a large area of disorganizes convective activity...

[HCW]

3 recon trips and no TD ! That's a strike out and a waste of gas. This thing is a 35kt open tropical wave and has no chance to form untill it's in the GOM.

[TVMet]

Tropical Weather Outlook from NHC...

 

THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO

PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE

IN SQUALLS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME

INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY

TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT

DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. LOCALLY

HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT JAMAICA...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN

ISLANDS TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE

YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS

SYSTEM.

[TVMet]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early4.png

[TVMet]

3 recon trips and no TD ! That's a strike out and a waste of gas. This thing is a 35kt open tropical wave and has no chance to form untill it's in the GOM.

 

I think NHC knows what they are doing!

 

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008

1145 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

 

WE HAVE BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AS IT HAS

CROSSED THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH SEVERAL

AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS SEARCHING FOR A WELL-DEFINED

CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. NOT UNTIL THIS MORNING DID THE

AIRCRAFT DETECT SUCH A CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING MORE

THAN ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION REQUISITE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...SO

ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING

WINDS OF 35-40 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO...AND THIS MORNING

THE SFMR ON THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED WINDS AS STRONG AS 42 KT...ALONG

WITH WINDS OF 50 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL. IN ADDITION...NOAA BUOY

42057...SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...MEASURED

SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE FOR ABOUT FOUR HOURS THIS

MORNING...AS STRONG AS 39 KT. BASED ON THE ABOVE DATA...THE

CYCLONE IS IMMEDIATELY DESIGNATED A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM

WINDS OF 40 KT. THIS IS CURRENTLY A SPRAWLING SYSTEM WITH 34-KT

WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXTENDING WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH

VERY RECENTLY CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE

CIRCULATION CENTER.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/15...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A

NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA IN BETWEEN DOLLY AND

CRISTOBAL. THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO

GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT

LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...THE FORWARD MOTION OF DOLLY IS LIKELY

TO BECOME SLOWER WHEN IT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS

ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN AND THE

SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THEN THE

SPREAD IS GREATER ON DAYS 3-5...WITH SOME MODELS EVENTUALLY

FORECASTING DOLLY TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE OTHERS HEAD

INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THEY ALSO DISAGREE GREATLY ON HOW LONG IT

MIGHT TAKE FOR DOLLY TO MAKE FINAL LANDFALL. THE MOST PRUDENT

APPROACH FOR NOW IS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO

THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

 

THERE ARE TWO INHIBITING FACTORS FOR STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT

TERM...WITH THE OBVIOUS ONE BEING INTERACTION WITH THE LAND MASS OF

YUCATAN TONIGHT. ALSO...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST

OF DOLLY IS IMPARTING SOME WIND SHEAR THAT IS PART OF THE REASON

FOR SUCH AN ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN. THAT LOW...HOWEVER...IS

HEADED SOUTHWESTWARD AND OUT OF THE WAY...AND WHEN DOLLY REACHES

THE GULF OF MEXICO IT IS LIKELY TO FIND ITSELF BENEATH A LARGE

UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...SO CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR

STRENGTHENING OVER THE VERY WARM GULF WATERS. THE OFFICIAL

INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL SOLUTION OF A STRONG

TROPICAL STORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL FORECAST

OF A HURRICANE IN THAT AREA IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

[lulu99]

we're sailing this sunday on the mariner. we've never sailed before and i'm getting worried. :eek:

[*CruiseFan*]

Where does Carnival post the intinerary change information? Just curious.

[bmw mama]

Where does Carnival post the intinerary change information? Just curious.

Looks like we made it back just in time !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[*CruiseFan*]

Looks like we made it back just in time !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

You're not kidding -- you guys cut it close! Glad DH and I didn't book a July cruise -- that boat is probably rockin' and rollin' from the waves!

[bmw mama]

You're not kidding -- you guys cut it close! Glad DH and I didn't book a July cruise -- that boat is probably rockin' and rollin' from the waves!

really don't bother with that ship... you won't like it !!!

[Tudzino]

I am on board with Halos.....We are headed out Sept 22 ourselves on Imagination to Western C. We are all from New England......and we too would get off and Cab our way home.....would stink for the airfare lost...you know the airfare that was almost as much as the 4 day cruise!!!:D :eek: :D