TVMet Posted July 18, 2008 #1 Share Posted July 18, 2008 From the National Hurricane Center... SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE. A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS JAMAICA TONIGHT. Forecast models: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early2.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BND Posted July 19, 2008 #2 Share Posted July 19, 2008 double post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BND Posted July 19, 2008 #3 Share Posted July 19, 2008 That's why we go to FL (WDW) and cruise in Nov. Looks like it's supposed to head across mostly open water and shouldn't affect most cruises directly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sushiman58 Posted July 19, 2008 #4 Share Posted July 19, 2008 headed tomorrow to Miami and off on the Imagnation for West Carib Hope we dont run into storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pauline664 Posted July 19, 2008 #5 Share Posted July 19, 2008 headed tomorrow to Miami and off on the Imagnation for West Carib Hope we dont run into storm Be safe. We are jealous it isn't us leaving tomorrow:D Have a great crusie. Our prayers for a fun and happy sailing go with you.:D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jessemon Posted July 19, 2008 #6 Share Posted July 19, 2008 Oh nooooooo......the sky is falling.......LOL Tis the season........;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cruzn buckeye Posted July 19, 2008 #7 Share Posted July 19, 2008 Yes it tis the season.... Thanks TVmet .... we like the way you keep us informed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fam_Cruise Posted July 19, 2008 #8 Share Posted July 19, 2008 Say it isn't so, and smack dab in hurricane season at that. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TVMet Posted July 19, 2008 Author #9 Share Posted July 19, 2008 Saturday morning update on Caribbean system.... SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. Latest model plot from Colo. State... http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early3.png Tropical Depression 3 form off US Coast... TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 800 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS A LITTLE.... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 285 MILES...455 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...KEEPING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA. RADAR DATA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN CHARLESTON AND WILMINGTON INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/083212.shtml?3day?large#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luschen Posted July 19, 2008 #10 Share Posted July 19, 2008 We are leaving on the Conquest out of Galveston tomorrow. Our itinerary has us sailing to Jamaica from Sunday to Tuesday. Meanwhile, the wave is supposed to turn in to a depression or maybe storm and hit the Yucatan sometime Monday. Looking at the map, there isn't much room between the Yucatan and Cuba for both a tropical storm and the Conquest on Monday morning. Maybe some rough seas or more likely a modified itinerary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
halos Posted July 19, 2008 #11 Share Posted July 19, 2008 That's why we go to FL (WDW) and cruise in Nov. Looks like it's supposed to head across mostly open water and shouldn't affect most cruises directly. LOL...even Nov isn't safe. Llast year we caught the tail end of a hurricane in Nov. We booked a 5 day to Bermuda for this Sept. I'm going to be mentally prepared to sail right back up to New England. if we dock in Portland, ME, I'll get off the ship, grab a cab and go home and pick up my mail :rolleyes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Mach* Posted July 19, 2008 #12 Share Posted July 19, 2008 Looking at the latest GOES loop there doesn't appear to be any rotation in the system at all... A Hurricane Hunter has been sent to investigate further. Currently it seems to be a large area of disorganizes convective activity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HCW Posted July 19, 2008 #13 Share Posted July 19, 2008 3 recon trips and no TD ! That's a strike out and a waste of gas. This thing is a 35kt open tropical wave and has no chance to form untill it's in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TVMet Posted July 20, 2008 Author #14 Share Posted July 20, 2008 Tropical Weather Outlook from NHC... THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN SQUALLS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT JAMAICA...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TVMet Posted July 20, 2008 Author #15 Share Posted July 20, 2008 http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early4.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TVMet Posted July 20, 2008 Author #16 Share Posted July 20, 2008 3 recon trips and no TD ! That's a strike out and a waste of gas. This thing is a 35kt open tropical wave and has no chance to form untill it's in the GOM. I think NHC knows what they are doing! TROPICAL STORM DOLLY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 1145 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 WE HAVE BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AS IT HAS CROSSED THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH SEVERAL AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS SEARCHING FOR A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. NOT UNTIL THIS MORNING DID THE AIRCRAFT DETECT SUCH A CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING MORE THAN ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION REQUISITE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...SO ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING WINDS OF 35-40 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO...AND THIS MORNING THE SFMR ON THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED WINDS AS STRONG AS 42 KT...ALONG WITH WINDS OF 50 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL. IN ADDITION...NOAA BUOY 42057...SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE FOR ABOUT FOUR HOURS THIS MORNING...AS STRONG AS 39 KT. BASED ON THE ABOVE DATA...THE CYCLONE IS IMMEDIATELY DESIGNATED A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40 KT. THIS IS CURRENTLY A SPRAWLING SYSTEM WITH 34-KT WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXTENDING WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH VERY RECENTLY CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/15...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA IN BETWEEN DOLLY AND CRISTOBAL. THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...THE FORWARD MOTION OF DOLLY IS LIKELY TO BECOME SLOWER WHEN IT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THEN THE SPREAD IS GREATER ON DAYS 3-5...WITH SOME MODELS EVENTUALLY FORECASTING DOLLY TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE OTHERS HEAD INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THEY ALSO DISAGREE GREATLY ON HOW LONG IT MIGHT TAKE FOR DOLLY TO MAKE FINAL LANDFALL. THE MOST PRUDENT APPROACH FOR NOW IS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE ARE TWO INHIBITING FACTORS FOR STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE OBVIOUS ONE BEING INTERACTION WITH THE LAND MASS OF YUCATAN TONIGHT. ALSO...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF DOLLY IS IMPARTING SOME WIND SHEAR THAT IS PART OF THE REASON FOR SUCH AN ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN. THAT LOW...HOWEVER...IS HEADED SOUTHWESTWARD AND OUT OF THE WAY...AND WHEN DOLLY REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO IT IS LIKELY TO FIND ITSELF BENEATH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...SO CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE VERY WARM GULF WATERS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL SOLUTION OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL FORECAST OF A HURRICANE IN THAT AREA IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lulu99 Posted July 21, 2008 #17 Share Posted July 21, 2008 we're sailing this sunday on the mariner. we've never sailed before and i'm getting worried. :eek: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*CruiseFan* Posted July 21, 2008 #18 Share Posted July 21, 2008 Where does Carnival post the intinerary change information? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmw mama Posted July 22, 2008 #19 Share Posted July 22, 2008 Where does Carnival post the intinerary change information? Just curious. Looks like we made it back just in time !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*CruiseFan* Posted July 23, 2008 #20 Share Posted July 23, 2008 Looks like we made it back just in time !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You're not kidding -- you guys cut it close! Glad DH and I didn't book a July cruise -- that boat is probably rockin' and rollin' from the waves! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmw mama Posted July 23, 2008 #21 Share Posted July 23, 2008 You're not kidding -- you guys cut it close! Glad DH and I didn't book a July cruise -- that boat is probably rockin' and rollin' from the waves! really don't bother with that ship... you won't like it !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tudzino Posted July 27, 2008 #22 Share Posted July 27, 2008 I am on board with Halos.....We are headed out Sept 22 ourselves on Imagination to Western C. We are all from New England......and we too would get off and Cab our way home.....would stink for the airfare lost...you know the airfare that was almost as much as the 4 day cruise!!!:D :eek: :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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