Recession

[stopgo]

Nobody knows if the market as bottomed out yet, I suspect there is still away to go before the recovery. You could always put your money in gold, I guess you would need alot of cash for that.

[stopgo]

Sky news reporting that entertainment group Zavvi UK are going into administration.

[gosport11]

Adams childrens wear bites the dust :(:(:confused:

[stopgo]

Anybody in CruiseCritic land having a holiday postponement because of the reccession. It does make one think a delay would be in order next year, until the economic situation improves.

[MattyBarlow]

I see there is an ever increasing list of ships being layed up at the moment. I went to Southampton yesterday and there are four large bulkers, around 77,000 GT, that are layed up until around April. They are currently on the cruise berth 101 and the new cruise terminal (which is looking pretty snazzy). I also can see that there are 3 car carriers from the same company anchored out in the Nab anchorages. One is acyually anchored off Selsey Bill. They have been there for over a week now. The river Fal is also starting to fill up. Theres a thread on the shipspotting.com forum about this and it is being updated daily with ships going to lay up!

Things starting to look bleak for the cargo section of shipping.

[stopgo]

Thanks for the stats M/M nice to see somebody takeing this subject seriously

[stopgo]

Land of Leather in admin, Findus closing, Wincanton logistics closing two sites. Thousands of jobs going and its only Monday.

[stopgo]

Need to add JCB and Waterford Crystal to that list.

[stopgo]

As we head into Febuary, how are fellow C/C copeing with the reccession. Is there any light at the end of the tunnel or as anybody yet to feel the affects of the reccession. Any sign of canceled holidays or cheaper alternatives in the cruise market.

[balf]

The original post from way back last year did not mention the impact on P&O, but to go a bit off topic I think there are conflicting signals.

 

There is still lots of money about and will be more when the Gov. starts the modern version of printing money. Problem is, people who have it are reluctant to spend it no matter how much they have. We are bombarded by the media telling us how bad things are and the mood is catching; everyone is on an economy drive whether they need to economise or not.

 

But then, the cruise ships are sailing full as far as reports tell, though there has been much discounting of prices, and the fact that many cruises were booked before the cricis hit. Our last one certainly was. Maybe the average cruiser is not typical.

 

The worst thing about all this is that no one in charge seems to have any idea of what they are doing, from our savior of the world and ex chancellor to the wan.....sorry bankers who got us into this in the first place.

 

If P&O do start removing ships from the fleet it is probable that Oriana will be the first to go. Pity, she is my favourite.

 

David.

[stopgo]

Yes this is a fairly old thread, I was interested if the reccession was having an effect on Cruise Critic members. I guess with very few replys the answer is no, or those that are effected have stopped posting.

[lostinvegas]

I think for some people it has probably had a positive effect.

 

If you have a safe job (if there is such a thing), a variable rate mortagage and no other debt, then things are not bad at all.

 

Your mortgage repayments every month will have gone down and their are lots of bargins in the shops. Even petrol prices are currently reasonable.

 

The only downside is if your also a saver then you will not be getting as much interest on your savings.

 

If you have lived in your house over 10 years it will still be worth more than when you bought it.

 

The only reason I can see for the above sort of people not spending money (as they would normally) is scare tactics from the media.

 

I guess the effect on the cruise lines will be down to the media, if its all doom and gloom people will be cautious, but then again if they discount the prices then people will probably book on the basis is too good a deal not to? only time will tell.

 

Chris

[tom_uk]

If P&O do start removing ships from the fleet it is probable that Oriana will be the first to go. Pity, she is my favourite.

 

My guess (and it's obviously only a guess) is that Oceana would go first: she's reasonably modern, she has a number of full sisters, and perhaps a market can be found for all them together. Dawn & Sun Princess are in Australia, Sea Princess is permanently in the Caribbean - perhaps Oceana could join the latter.

 

Then they might decide not to operate Azura; perhaps they'd pass her to Princess, which might mothball one or more of their own older ships?

 

Next might be Artemis. She's old technology and may be more expensive to operate per 'passenger mile' than more recent ships.

 

But my guess is that the recession isn't affecting the core P&O constituency too badly. Most traditional P&O passengers are retired or near to it, possibly living on traditional pensions. Mortgages are paid off, not much expenditure: cruising is a very important part of their lives, and they'd rather give up other things than the cruises. My guess is it's Ventura & Azura that P&O are going to have trouble filling (at economic rates). I think the recession is going to affect families, with their large mortgages, negative-equity houses, and job worries, the most. I think a significant proportion of them may decide that 2009 & 2010 are years to take a holiday in the UK.

[stopgo]

Agree with the both of you, great posts well made observations. I shall keep returning to this topic, as the effects take hold as the year progresses.

[LibraLass41]

I think for some people it has probably had a positive effect.

 

If you have a safe job (if there is such a thing), a variable rate mortagage and no other debt, then things are not bad at all.

 

Your mortgage repayments every month will have gone down and their are lots of bargins in the shops. Even petrol prices are currently reasonable.

 

The only downside is if your also a saver then you will not be getting as much interest on your savings.

 

If you have lived in your house over 10 years it will still be worth more than when you bought it.

 

The only reason I can see for the above sort of people not spending money (as they would normally) is scare tactics from the media.

 

I guess the effect on the cruise lines will be down to the media, if its all doom and gloom people will be cautious, but then again if they discount the prices then people will probably book on the basis is too good a deal not to? only time will tell.

 

Chris

 

 

 

I agree too with ALL you have said above,thats US.....YES, our tracker mortgage has gone down a little three times in the last 6 months, we both have jobs, but no job is secure and I think thats where the problem is ,everyone is frightened they will be next to loose their jobs and thus aren't spending as much as before on large purchases - cars etc.

My savings which are used for cruises have really gone down, my ISA now 1% - pathetic, and my pension has lost £1,000's this year,and I only have a small one working part time.....so up'sand downs.

[stopgo]

I can't find any ups only downs, my house is worth alot more than I paid for it but as I am not selling it means nothing. Don't have a mortgage so mortgage repayments going down are no good to me. As you say my savings are earning bugger all, no jobs only cut backs and huge gas and electic bills to pay. Somebody must be doing well out of the reccession but its not me.

[Nippy Sweetie]

Very interesting thread. Its true that for some people with secure jobs, mortgages reducing and fuel costs going down (as well as massive sales of all sorts of things (including cruises) this is actually a positive time. General scaremongering is critically affecting consumer confidence.

The falling pound against the dollar and euro is a big problem for some businesses I know of. However, onwards! anticipating our cruises keep us going. The Internet certainly stokes the rumour fire. Maybe it will also, as mentioned previously, help to get things going again. Or am I being too optimistic? Probably...................

[tom_uk]

The Internet certainly stokes the rumour fire. Maybe it will also, as mentioned previously, help to get things going again. Or am I being too optimistic? Probably...................

 

One thing that doesn't seem to being mentioned is that this is the first recession of the internet age. I remember the early 90s recession, the early 80's recession ("if it isn't hurting it isn't working") and, I think, one in the early-to-mid 70s? The difference was that those recessions crept up slowly, sort of, whereas this one has been a hammer blow, and you cannot get away from coverage of it. It's not just the internet, but 24 hour news channels a well, of course.

 

So I wonder if in fact the upturn could come quicker than expected, and be swifter as well - for the same reasons. We'll know in 18 months time, of course.

[stopgo]

Does anybody know whats happening with Carnival shares they dropped 74p yesterday. The biggest drop in their sector.

[SeaMatesNYC]

Does anybody know whats happening with Carnival shares they dropped 74p yesterday. The biggest drop in their sector.

 

I believe all were effected by the earnings announcement from RCL. 1 cent per share versus 33 cents in prior-year quarter (and analyst consensus estimate of 7 cents).

[stopgo]

When do Carnival annouce their results ?

[SeaMatesNYC]

When do Carnival annouce their results ?

 

They are on a November fiscal. 1Q should be out around mid March.

[stopgo]

Thanks for the info, as long as the fuel prices are low the shares have a chance of moveing up.

[CASPALL]

"My savings which are used for cruises have really gone down, my ISA now 1% - pathetic, and my pension has lost £1,000's this year,and I only have a small one working part time.....so up'sand downs"

 

Hey Sue!

Consider a shares ISA! All thanks to you for getting me started on the Carnival shares and stock market! I have already bought and sold (keeping the 100 needed to get OBC) making a very tidy profit. I also got £80 dividend in November. That all led me onto transferring my ISA to a shares ISA (which I manage myself) and I am quids in (at the moment).

If the price is right I will buy more Carnival shares.

[Adammara]

We own 2 companies, one retail, this January our sales are down 15% on the same period last year.

 

Our small manufacturing company, supply services to the hard hit road transport industry is down 33% on last year. 7 of my staff have cut their hours, and one taken voluantry redudancy.

 

We see no 'green shoots', and anticipate a difficult year ahead.

 

One thing is for sure, we will be only having one cruise next year, hopefully!

 

H&R