Mexico/swine flu discussions (merged)

[chipmaster]

People find it odd that only deaths to date are in Mexico. My post on another thread is there are only a few possiblities for this current observation

 

1) Virus is mutating quickly and already is in a much less lethal form

2) Pig to human is lethal, while human to human is always a less lethal form due to 1) above

3) Long incubation for the lethal kind and its only the tip of the iceberg.

 

The fact we are seeing it across the globe already suggest its easier to transmit versus ebola or avian flue or other recent communicable disease :mad:

[CrusinAgain]

People should not be scared but they should certainly be aware and try and avoid situations where they could be exposed to the virus. More people died from a similar strain of flu after the Great War than died during the fighting - about 12 million, if my memory serves me correctly. This was the last great pandemic. However, the difference is that we now have antibiotics which successfully treat the symptoms of influenza and I think most of the confirmed cases outside of Mexico have very mild symptoms in any case.

 

They were talking on the news today that this could be the next pandemic and this was from a government official. Have you ever been really sick on a crusie ship before? There is a huge difference being sick at home and being sick after spending your vacation money and being confined to your room sick and not having the proper things you need that you would at home to get to which is drinks, soup, cleaning stuff, meds, all the little things we need. I was sick with the Noro virus on a cruise ship and getting room service to come or getting any supplies was like pulling teeth. I do not want to put myself in the path of this disease and ruin my vacation and be sick all week in a confined cabin on a cruiseship.

[CrusinAgain]

Hopefully if that were the case they would also give us the option to cancel.........

 

I know Carnival did in 2005 when the hurricane really hurt Cozumel so we had 24 hours to cancel after they announced any itinerary changes on their online news forum and I saw and cancel it taking another Carnival ship that was going to the places we wanted.

 

This time we are on Royal for the Mexican Riviera and so far they are sticking to their itinerary but things are changing quickly since the CDC announced the no travel but essential travel to Mexico.

[retiredtimes2]

Good Morning,

 

No Mexican ports in the Mexican Riveria, for the Sapphire Princess. They were supposed to be in P.Vallarta today, Tuesday, Mazatlan, Wed & Cabo on Thursday but have infact actually turned the ship around and they headed back up the coast.

 

They will have to hit Ensenada as their foreign port before stopping at

any US ports but no passengers will be getting off al all.

 

It's going to be chaos in the next few days as more ships cancel

ports. Apparently Carnival Corp has choosen to handle things this way,

so would expect that other cruise lines will follow.

 

Scary times.

 

Stay healthy

[sartracker]

I agree with Chipmaster, there are many things yet unknown.

 

This is indeed a mystery, there are only a couple likey possibilities

 

1) The virus is mutating and the form that has / is spreading is a less lethal one

2) The incumbation period is long and have yet to see the tip of the iceberg.

3) Pig to human is the deadly form, human-human while genetically similar is not as lethal. /QUOTE]

 

I think there are many unanswered questions. In the US many people have been vaccinated against different flu viruses over the years whereas in Mexico the people aren't routinely vaccinated.

 

There is much more exposure in Mexico I would imagine from pig to human whereas what we are seeing in the US is human to human and seems to be a milder form. My son returned over a week ago from a border town of AZ/Mexico and so far is fine. My DH and I cruised to Mexico in mid-March when apparently there were already people sick from this illness and so far we are fine. That doesn't mean there won't be someone whose system can't handle it here and they will have severe problems. :(

 

The incubation period is not known yet for certainty so it's a crap shoot. Some diseases such as Rubella can have a 3 week incubation period. A shorter incubation period would seem to be easier to find people infected and stop it but I don't really know.

 

Would I go to Mexico right now? Yes, but I don't have young children and I could get a dose of tamiflu to take with me. Plus, I'm part of a team set up to operate in these circumstances. Should other people do that? Probably not, unless they can take the same precautions.

 

Is this a nightmare for tourists, the tourist industry and the countries that count on our tourist dollars? Absolutely! But we've had these kinds of things happen before and there is a good Emergency Plan in place for this kind and other kinds of issues so I'm positive that things will work out if we all work together. I'm sure the cruise lines like the airlines will work out something for everyone affected by this illness. I'm sorry it's ruining so many peoples plans!

 

Good luck everyone! Stay positive and know that everything that can possibly be done to isolate this incident is being done. :)

[5waldos]

The 6 of use are sailing out of long beach on may 11 to go to catalina and ensenada... We ARE NOT cancelling NO WAY!!! BUT however we will have a STOCKPILE of WATER GATORADE AND AIRBORNE and/or ZIACAM lol.

 

That plus some soap and water and tamiflu or the other antiviral will help.

[CrusinAgain]

Good Morning,

 

No Mexican ports in the Mexican Riveria, for the Sapphire Princess. They were supposed to be in P.Vallarta today, Tuesday, Mazatlan, Wed & Cabo on Thursday but have infact actually turned the ship around and they headed back up the coast.

 

They will have to hit Ensenada as their foreign port before stopping at

any US ports but no passengers will be getting off al all.

 

It's going to be chaos in the next few days as more ships cancel

ports. Apparently Carnival Corp has choosen to handle things this way,

so would expect that other cruise lines will follow.

 

Scary times.

 

Stay healthy

 

Oh wow....thanks for posting this as I just read the cruiseline statements and I thought they were going to actually stop at these ports. Ugh.....I guess I better look into taking our cruise to Alaska and cancelling the Mexican Riviera one while we are just into the deposit penalty stage. I have no desire to see the coastal port states which is really all they could go to with a stop in Canada.

[sailingkiwi]

If you are interested, I listened to an excellent interview yesterday on Radio New Zealand (equivalent to BBC) between a host and Professor John Oxford, who is professor of virology at St Bart's Hospital and The London St Mary's School of Medicine - ie an expert in this area.

 

- Link to interview

 

I find that listening to extended interviews such as these much more informative than catching 30 second sound bites on the TV.

[Madkitty]

sky news has reported that NO flights will be leaving Manchester for Cancun all this week - they are just wanting to get people home, nothing has been mentioned for the other airports.

 

UK'ers please note that if you do travel to Mexico then it will invalidate your travel insurance as FCO are advising against it

[Donray]

Are the Obama administration and the news agencies blowing the swine flu out of proportion? Every year 36,000 people die of the flu in the USA. Thus far this is not even close to that number.

[chipmaster]

Are the Obama administration and the news agencies blowing the swine flu out of proportion? Every year 36,000 people die of the flu in the USA. Thus far this is not even close to that number.

 

Yes and no, many of the quoted deaths are elderly and very young who's immune system are weaker and can't deal with the many complications that come with the more common widespread flue. These more common flue the majority of the human population have developed an antibodies to fight.

 

What is new with this strain is the reported deaths have been among those that are healthier and stronger and should be more adept at coping with the complications of a flu. This suggest a strain that the larger human population likely has no immunity or prior exposure and thus no antibodies devleoped to fight it. If it morphs into a more lethal form pretty much the whole human race could develop serious complications and only those that can't develop the antibodies or who's immune system over react will you know the story there...

 

Now is it overblown, time will tell. Hopefully the virus turns out to not be so lethal. Pretty much no way to stop it as its already spread out and human-human transmission has already been documented. It'll only be a matter of time before the whole world has it.

[ginjer2911]

Here is TX we have had one confirmed death from the swine flu. An almost two year old from Mexico that is here visiting with his family. And there are two cases in intensive care that is suspected to be swine flu. One is another almost two year old and the other is a pregnant woman.

 

This is very typical of flu's though. The young and immune compromised (yes, that includes preganat women) will be the ones to get the sickest.

[Scooter-n-GB]

May have already been mentioned, but the estimates are that 25% of all employees of pig farms, regardless of where in the world they are, have antibodies to "Swine" flu.

 

Now that the WHO has upped this to a level 5, you will see more measures taken, including a ramping up of development of a vaccine.

 

Fingers crossed for all of us. Our particluar plans to vacation in Cozumel, in mid June, have not changed. There have been 2documented cases in the County (Kennebec), in which we live already, so I am of the opinion that our chances of getting it at home are just as high, perhaps higher, than on the island of Cozumel, which has had no reported cases, and has excellent medical facilities.

[beachchick]

May have already been mentioned, but the estimates are that 25% of all employees of pig farms, regardless of where in the world they are, have antibodies to "Swine" flu.

 

Now that the WHO has upped this to a level 5, you will see more measures taken, including a ramping up of development of a vaccine.

 

Fingers crossed for all of us. Our particluar plans to vacation in Cozumel, in mid June, have not changed. There have been 2documented cases in the County (Kennebec), in which we live already, so I am of the opinion that our chances of getting it at home are just as high, perhaps higher, than on the island of Cozumel, which has had no reported cases, and has excellent medical facilities.

 

Which is no doubt helpful, but this isn't only the "swine flu." It is a combined flu that includes swine, avian, and human flu strains. That is what is "scary" (sorry, not a perfect word, but the best I can come up with right now) about it. It is a variant of the H1N1 flu, which was the strain involved in the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. The concern is that this flu might evolve in a similar way. The Spanish flu first showed up in the spring and was not particularly deadly/serious. By that fall, it had mutated to a more deadly form which was as serious for the young, healthy population as it was for those who are usually more at risk.

 

There are several factors that are in our favor now that we did have in 1918. We can begin development of a vaccine immediately. Obviously, that is already in process. In general, we (in the developed countries) have at least reasonably good medical care and access to medications, etc. We know far more about disease control than we did then. Most of us have either been vaccinated or have had any number of various human flus or some combination of both throughout our lives. While that won't prevent us from getting this flu, it can help our bodies fight it faster and react less severely.

 

There are three confirmed cases and a bunch more suspected in our area. We're certainly not panicking and are mostly treating this the same way we would any flu outbreak. We already do everything recommended to help prevent getting sick (or spreading illness) because we have compromised immune systems and need to be mindful all the time. My DH has asthma and will not be going anywhere in public unless necessary.

 

beachchick

[Donray]

Seems like panic is dying down. Big deal about nothing so far......

[cruzincurt]

Are the Obama administration and the news agencies blowing the swine flu out of proportion? Every year 36,000 people die of the flu in the USA. Thus far this is not even close to that number.

 

Never waste a good crisis. We sure need that national health care now.:rolleyes:

[momofmeg]

Are the Obama administration and the news agencies blowing the swine flu out of proportion? Every year 36,000 people die of the flu in the USA. Thus far this is not even close to that number.

 

See the post from Madkitty # 209 right above yours? this person is from the UK-so I do believe this is beyond the Obama administration.