AmazedByCruising

The door usually opens inwards (but not always!). You could simply put something heavy enough against the door? 

4 hours ago, Tom-n-Cheryl said:

 

I fully agree that over time it's basically irrelevant how other individuals play. Having said that, on a hand by hand basis, it can be difficult to ignore a significant loss owing to a "wrong" play.. Of course, those "wrong" plays are just as likely to help as hurt!

Agree, but I never see people being thankful for the "wrong" play when it helps 🙂

Last time I found the 6-5 payout vs 3-2 on $6 tables a far bigger problem that does actually hurt consistently. Also game play is often very slow (but that makes it less expensive :)). The "21 people" just try out a new game, expecting to lose their chips, who don't mind if you give a hint ("you can double", "the dealer has a 6"). IMHO it's the best place on the ship to meet new people. 

41 minutes ago, djcass4199 said:

I’ve had some incredible playing partners on a few cruises at the $6 tables and we did quite well and then we’ve have some experiences on the $6 tables where we were hemorrhaging chips because our fellow playing partners were hitting on things they shouldn’t and taking dealer bust cards.

Other players doing cringe worthy moves is a nice conversation starter IMHO. That's the fun part of BJ! All against the dealer, and even the dealer wants to lose. 

Feeling bad because the player next to you took the 10 that you wanted the dealer to have.. You should know that it doesn't affect your odds whatever the other players do.  

4 hours ago, commodoredave said:

"And, how ship "values" do not inflate up over time"

I agree that used ships, like used cars, do not inflate in value. However, I would guess that inflation will cause the cost of building a new ship to become more expensive, which should have a trickle down effect on the value of used ships. Wouldn't it follow that existing fleets will have more value in an inflated economy?

That's what I mean 🙂. The lines with an existing fleet have ships that are scarce, and debts for which they pay less interest than inflation.

22 hours ago, cruiseej said:

And this is what's so crazy about Wall Street. One analyst from one company says CCL is potentially in trouble, and it spooks the entire stock market; everyone sells, and the stock tanks. Because of one analyst. Sheesh.

Not only that. Windows 10 has learned that I'm interested in CCL so now I only need to click on the weather icon in the task bar to see what the analysts say. If CCL went down they'll explain why it did and see a dire future for CCL. If CCL went up the very same people explain why it did and see a wonderful future for CCL. Never an expert who says the market has it all wrong (of course, "the market is always right", by definition, but they are forecasting what the market will say tomorrow).

Never an expert who admits that he was wrong the last time, who found a mistake, explains it, and promises to make better forecasts next time. Really, "if you're so smart, why aren't you rich". The fact that they deliver analysis, paid by the hour or number of words, proves that they are the homeopaths of stock exchanges. 

There are two famous stories which I believe are both true, and which enough people don't want to be true because a whole industry is useless if they are.

1) a blindfolded monkey picking stocks better than the experts,

2) a few elderly ladies investing in companies based on personal experiences instead of looking at balances, doing better than the monkey

So probably, if the market reacts to an analyst, who's worse than a monkey, you should probably do the opposite of what he advises.  In the end it's real dividends the company can pay that counts (besides some OBC), but thanks to the analyst you can get those cheaper when people believe in the magic glass ball of the analyst.

2 hours ago, AmazedByCruising said:

 

I have full confidence that the fact that CCL actually owns a large fleet will keep them adrift, 

Afloat. I meant afloat! 

2 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

Notably, markets have been thrown into disarray as the Federal Reserve — in its battle to cool rising inflation — raised interest rates by the most since 1994, fueling fears that its aggressive policy could lead to a recession

People are not stupid, they see rising prices, or less product in the same box of detergents, too. I wish the European Central Bank got to its senses, too, and do what a central bank is supposed to do. Fight inflation instead of trying to diminish debt of countries that can't behave (Spain, Italy, Greece, France, to name a few). 

Ships are ships. They get older, but don't inflate. Even FR can't use a helicopter to spray around ships for all lines. You don't have only 90% ship left after a year because FR printed too many ships. I have full confidence that the fact that CCL actually owns a large fleet will keep them adrift, and inflation eats away the debts, but let's hope that's not wishful thinking 🙂

16 minutes ago, Purvis1231 said:

Has surface transmission of covid finally been proven? 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-research/surface-transmission.html

Vaguely "Within households". So probably somewhat, because new guests take over the old "household". I think it helps more when stewards open the doors on turn-around day for a few hours. 

41 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

Spooked?  I think so.  And, I seriously doubt that we will see CCL at zero.  Morgan Stanley's analyst has been very negative about CCL for quite some time.  Since I am a MS client, my advisor has not been ringing my phone about this situation.  

I would like an analyst to clearly say: debt is X, ships are worth Y on the balance (original cost such, but so old, so old fashioned, so much extra maintenance). I wasn't born for accounting, but I think that's where a mistake is made.

Ships are sailing, some at full capacity, people have money to burn. And since Omicron nobody seems to care about Covid anymore. 

(Also a second ship was chartered in Holland to house another 1000 refugees. It's not necessarily vacationers that add to the demand)

If this was the time to start up a new line, which it might be, you still can't magically turn money into ships in a day. Even old container ships are extremely expensive now, there are simply not enough yards to build ships fast enough. Whatever the debt is, CCL already does have the ships to meet a higher demand, and I'm not sure that is fully shown in the figures. Have to stay optimistic when I bought CCL at $15 and was happy about it 🙂

39 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

Interesting that these two ships have openable dividers, as typically ships built before the Star Princess fire in 2006 don't have them.

45 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

In most cases, it is at the Captain's discretion as to whether to allow dividers open or not.  This depends on the Captain's personal risk tolerance, as the dividers provide fire protection.

The previous MS Rotterdam (1997, now MS Borealis) had them, too. We were on deck 6. On deck 7 cabins were simply twice as big so it was similar to deck 6 with every other divider open. 

On 6/12/2022 at 8:31 AM, BruceMuzz said:

The Corporate F&B People have forecasted a feeding budget based on itinerary, number of sea days, country where the provisioning will take place, menu cycle being used, number of children expected, number of repeat cruisers expected, average price paid for the cruise, special groups onboard, time of year, and many other factors.

Then the Exec Chef, F&B Director, Controller, Hotel Manager get together and guess - based on all the information they have - how many chickens the Chef will serve during that cruise, how many lobster tails will be needed, how many jars of peanut butter will be consumed.

Why the guessing on the ship? If HQ's computer can calculate a decent budget, why not have it think about each and every guest on board which the team can't possibly do. Kids don't eat snails but will consume more peanut butter and experienced cruisers stay away from lobster tails. The computer knows much more and can spit out "800 chickens, 5000 eggs is enough, 95% sure". 

Another question: on a series of short cruises (3 nights), does it matter much? Who cares if you bought too many cans of Coke, or eggs, if their are sold on the next cruise.  

On 6/21/2022 at 1:45 PM, pgf54 said:

I do find it difficult to find cruises which will link or take me back home again. 

I even bought cruise data to find out which combos would get you where, hoping that I would be able to make a website that would show you exactly what you want. After spending a nice car on just cruise data (which is somehow not publicly available), and programming the stuff, (in port X hop on ship 1, hop off and spend max 2 days in a hotel, hop on the next ship and get to port Y) it turns out, it gets you nowhere. Not even in high season, perfectly reasonable trips from Amsterdam to Rome cannot be constructed without for instance spending 4 days in Porto waiting for a 1 night part of a 14 day cruise. All while a quick look at Marine Traffic shows that the ships are everywhere. It's easier for Australia to Europe and back again because that are maybe 10 cruises a year of which many would lead you to Alaska and Argentine before reaching the destination.

And even it would work, the ships don't want you to hop on or off. That's too many empty rooms that should be filled with people buying drinks and bingo, and too much ado with authorities. 

With a quite large number of people who won't fly, who can afford the time and money, I wonder why travelling by ship is a thing of the past, but it is as it is.

Maybe there's useful info in the thread I started a long time ago. 

3 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

Can't properly respond to your interesting post.  No idea how Mr. Krugman decided to say what he did in his column.  But, I have read his columns for a long time and he knows more about economics than I surely do.  I have learned from his columns.  

 

Crypto was supposed to be a hedge against inflation.  So far, the results don't show that.  

It may be sold as a hedge against inflation, but it was designed to be a cool currency. With a built in limit, but not as a hedge. 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd

Surely, the value of bitcoin is a bit wild against the dollar. But then again, when people first found gold, how many ounces was worth how much food? That must have been a volatile market as well.

But once it calms down a bit I think it is a nice hedge. If you bought 50 bitcoins just 5 years ago, you wouldn't care about inflation at all. 🙂 

On 6/20/2022 at 9:39 PM, CineGraphic said:

I'm not only surprised that someone was paid to come up with this, but that someone upstairs APPROVED it!

And the marketing department didn't ask 100 loyal clients what they'd think. 

On 6/20/2022 at 8:44 PM, karatemom2 said:

Apparently Marketing Dept and Customer Service don’t communicate. I work in Marketing and PR and the last kind of slogan you want is one that invites snark. It’s a poor choice.  
 

I would have stuck with a refresh or renewal message after the last two years like come back new 2.0 - “starting new together”. Or another option could have been “let us take you back to the world” branding theme. 
 

But they didn’t ask me. 

What would you think of reusing "back to normal" (no more masks, restaurants open) to say "With us you're not getting just normal, you're getting Princess!".

Like "Some people want to go back to normal. Others have booked a cruise on Princess. "

45 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

In Paul Krugman's column that I read today, he called crypt a Ponzi scheme.  

Can't read the column, and don't own crypto, but I wonder what theoretical grounds make crypto more a Ponzi scheme than paper money which history has always proven to become worthless at one point if you cannot get the face value back in real gold or similar.

In fact, there is a crypto currency that is actually fully backed by something in a vault: paper dollars🙂  No risk to pay interest on your balance (like Euro-owners current do), no need pay for a vault yourself. And of course sending money from one person to another anywhere on the world is a lot easier without banks or checks involved, just paying a tiny fee. Either Krugman thinks they are crooks, or he doesn't believe in fiat money. 

 There is a web site that does the scanning the sea for you, and let's you select for instance "Australia to "England" or "Australia to Italy". There are very few options, and then you're only half way. 

As @chengkp75 says, a freighter might be an option. MSC Ilona does sail back and forth every 7 weeks and hopefully in 2024 Covid isn't less a problem than it is now.

On 6/19/2022 at 11:01 PM, chengkp75 said:

Not sure why you seem to fixate on ballast, as most cruise ships carry a very minimum amount of ballast.  Ballast is only used to counteract a large change in "deadweight" (or the amount of fuel, water, and cargo carried), and unlike a tanker or freighter, the "cargo" on a cruise ship does not vary by a great deal, and it costs money (fuel) to carry salt water around.

I thought almost any ship had ballast. I used to own a small boat, and even that had lead blocks at the bottom (i.e. fixed ballast to stabilize it). Of course cruise ships have huge, and heavy engines at the bottom but there's also a complete apartment building on top.

8 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

I should be called "Amazed by Amazed", because you always seem to come up with the most off the wall questions. 

After googling "off the wall questions" I should maybe take that as a compliment 🙂

Result is that I know to a decent level of detail how contracting, payments, responsibilities, and testing works. And that features like cranes are just installed but not made by the ship builder. Thank you once again for meticulously answering my weird questions after 8 years or so!

I'm really surprised that Cunard doesn't only design the restaurant but also the ship itself. I expected  they'd sent specs to the yard (this much space here, so many rooms, that speed, such stability, two big pools on top, etc) and that the yard would come up with a plan, specifying where to put how much ballast to make it a nice ship for TA cruises. Not that Cunard knows how to sell cruises, but also needs to have its own people thinking about the intricacies of bulbous bows.  

2 hours ago, Karaboudjan said:

I'm sure that specifications are well defined in the contract and there are penalty clauses if the ship fails to meet the specs and Fincantieri is unable to remedy something.  

I'm less sure than you but we need a Chief 🙂

For instance, the ships with a crane on top of it, it could simply not work as designed. If it's useful to have a test drive, there must be things that can be fixed. There's a limit to that. "Oh ok, you don't want the listing. We can fix that by putting loads of ballast in MDR". What if there's no simple remedy and the ship is useless? The penalties would be the worth of the ship and a few years of revenue, not even  Fincantieri can pay that.

2 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

But, if anything is not right during sea trials, then Fincantieri must fix it, and possibly trial it again, before NCL makes the final payment.

Are there strict rules for this,? I mean, NCL might want to decide they don't really want the ship (because a new variant showed up) so they say "nah, the steering doesn't really feel like I wanted it".

Are sea trials written down like "Test 4. The ship must reach at least 25 knots in calm seas without any hick up in hotel power during 5 hours". "Test 5. if we make a 90 degrees turn within 3 minutes at 20 knots, you chose the Master, the list must be less than 5 degrees at least 2 out of three tries"? 

What happens if a test does fail, and Fincantieri can't fix the problem with more ballast or better software?  Maybe people at NCL and Fincantieri were all too positive about a crane lifting an ice rink above the ship, and it turned out to be not such a good idea after all. Would NCL just get a rebate after a long dicussion?

6 minutes ago, Catlover54 said:

But there are dozens of posts on luxury line forums relating to how to save $100 here or $200 there (often requiring  great effort), how to get an extra discount, how outraged they are about "small" surcharges for this and that, etc.

That has surprised me as well!  If a couple spends $8000 for a week, not ridiculous, that's 80 cents per minute. Whether you'r spending your time in port, embarking, eating in MDR, being told that you need to buy Tanzanite, sleeping or showering, it is costing you 80 cents each and every minute. 

The ticket might be seen as sunken costs, but even then. Once on the ship it's not the time to spend 30 minutes in line at GR to let them know you didn't get your free tote bag. Even if they give you 10 tote bags, of no particular value except making sure every street criminal knows whom to target, you're wasting your time being angry.

Not sure what percentage of guests on SS have heard of CC, maybe 60% asks their butler to arrange the vacation without a budget, and are only worried the best suite is taken. Then again, SS isn't stupid so they apparently need people who worry about $100, too, to fill the ships.

4 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

There is a drain, with a trap, in the floor of the bathroom (not the shower drain), typically a round drain tucked under the toilet where you don't see it, or a gutter type drain at the bathroom doorway.  These drains see almost no water, unless the shower overflows, and the dry air evaporates the water over time.  Just like when you open a seasonal home, very often there is a "funk" until you run some water in the sinks and showers to refill the traps.

Why is "put some water in the drain" not standard procedure on turn around days? I've read the same problem, and really easy solution so many times now.

3 hours ago, cruiseej said:

Finally, for consumers, purchasing an air flight for a vacation is a smaller expense than booking a cruise vacation; to the extent people are feeling the pressure of inflation, there is likely a shift from more expensive to less expensive vacations taking place. 

I still think there's a huge amount of money that is waiting to be spent. 2 years of restaurant visits, resorts, etc add up. Many households that couldn't spend their money on cruises decided to improve their house, while working from home is quite nice actually, and then found that there's a waiting list because everybody thought the same thing and now the materials aren't available.  

Another way to look at inflation is that you need to turn your money into memorable events, because in a year the same money buys 10% less memorable events. This is the time to cruise people! With CCL, not RCCL.

Never forget that Carnival has the very best ships!  🎵the very best ships! 🎵 Carnival.  🎵the very best ships! 🎵 

On 5/28/2022 at 1:53 AM, Copper10-8 said:

 

Love that organ, Roy! Can't wait to hear it play in August during our anniversary cruise. A little Jonny Cash' Ghost Riders in the Sky! 😉  

 

 

 

On Koningsdam a few years ago they had a little stall for herring, but there was no herring until the Captain invited everyone to come shake his and his team's hands. And then the raw and a bit rotten, dead, yet delicious fish was served in small bits by waiters. The stall was just a prop, and I thought this deck needed a proper organ.

So I'm delighted to see that HAL's Dutch heritage is not only shown by selling salty licorice and poffertjes in Dutch Cafe but there is an actual organ, on a ship. 

Too bad it looks like an Italian statue made of plaster. This is what they really look like: https://www.dumpert.nl/item/6866489_05a7da0a  But you know that 🙂 Image one of these on Lido deck!

2 hours ago, cruiseej said:

Sorry, I guess I'm not understanding your thinking. No one got a FCC just for a cruise being canceled.

It was my understanding that guests get FCC all the time, for instance if there's a fire on the ship. "We're very sorry, but here's a coupon to buy another cruise that hopefully doesn't kill you". That's what happened when Covid struck "Sorry, no real money for you, read the contract, but here's a coupon for another cruise."

2 hours ago, cruiseej said:

Why do you think it matters whether it was a deposit made onboard on a previous cruise or a cruise booked from the living room couch? It's still money a customer paid to the cruise line. 

I mean the FCC that the customer got because the line couldn't deliver the product paid for, and instead of simply giving the money back got offered a coupon.