josh.vincent.180

Short covering has a lot to do with it.  The worst is not behind us, imo we will have a 90 day Cruise line ban.

When one goes they all go.

https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/mobile/victoria-harbour-authority-to-address-federal-cruise-ship-ban-1.4851940?fbclid=IwAR3ymQHdH8z2WSQLDvj1xjChD61Jx3IS7X90fop3vaaGHxUcbPbmni8kaF0

Victoria Port Ban.

Also the 3 things that will save American lives due to Corona Virus

1) Tom Hanks getting it

2) NBA shutting down and thus all sports

3) Stocks - yes this capitulation will scare people

Yes it awful people are dying from this, but remember the 1918 Spanish flu brought the Roaring 20s, Does Covid do it again.

All because some dude in China wanted to eat a BAT!

1 hour ago, Life Buoy said:

I really wonder if RCL and Celebrity really have a crisis management plan? There plan should have been developed a long time ago and implemented as soon as the current crisis was apparent. They should have been ahead of the story and not let the story become guesses and rumors. A really effective plan might provide a cushion for the stock price. Now there is uncertainty about itineraries, compensation and future plans. I feel that the note from your doctor will hurt bookings, since some will simply choose to cancel rather than see a doctor, if they have one. Or, really people who could jeopardize others will simple forge a signature. Higher cruise prices will simply drive potential passengers away. All this will negatively impact the stock price as price really reflects future confidence. I would urge the management to level with the public about their plans and keep those booked in the loop. 

A final thought: Respond on Cruise Critic. You could clarify mistatments, answer questions, or simply inform.

Its Bankruptcy, and thats the bet I am taking with Shorting the stock.

18 minutes ago, XuGator said:

Its funny to read so many people on here thinking they know what the market will do and what a "good price is"

 

Here is a tip for first timers - NOBODY can predict what this stock or any stock is going to do. It could very easily go back to 60 as it could to 30. So dont take the advice of anyone who thinks they can foresee things that will affect the price. That isnt how the market works. In fact the market often responds in an opposing direction

 

Buy at a price you feel comfortable with and dont think you or anyone can predict the future because you cant.

 

Its not going back to $60 until COVID is cured.  $30 maybe a bit low, but again if you think differently take the call strike against me.  THIS IS BLACK SWAN - all beats are off.

I would not buy RCL stock based on cruise credits unless you treat it like a dividend and figure 5 years at 8 cruises a year and thus buy 100 shares at $40 makes sense.

DONT RISK MORE THAN YOU ARE AFRAID TO LOSE, cause as unlikely as you think bankruptcy is, IT IS in play here with Debt ratio.  I dont think we go there but nobody knows.

Sold my strike at 47, and took half my about half of my initial bet off and rolled it down to a $22.50 put strike for June 19th.

Does short cover here at $40? IDK?
 

My new gamble is on the fact that imo Vancouver and Seattle will shut down cruise port.  Alaska cruises start at end of April.

At $42 - RCL is a $7.2B Market Cap company - its debt is $11.2B 

This is really gets interesting sub $40 after long term support.

15 minutes ago, woody14h said:

Where did this post come from.  I can find no reference.  Please cite.

It was on TV on CNBC - only cite I can find 
 

"Nothing Official" but looks to be 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/03/11/proposal-white-house-cruise-industry-bar-people-70-ships/5020325002/

RCL has Jewel in Dubai on semi lockdown right now.

24 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

That supposed ban was mentioned by a reporter.  Adam Goldstein (CLIA president & former RCCI vice chairman) did not confirm it was part of package of proposals given to Pence by cruise lines.  But he didn't deny it either.

Correct, but you could see on his face that was in the proposal.

Thinking about doing a put on Jun 19th 2020 at $25.  Worst case I have to buy RCL at at $25 for 100 shares.

CNBC right now, The CRUISE line policy submitted to the White House is BANNING ALL cruisers over 70 and anyone with a health issue. 

Not official yet but its coming soon.

4 minutes ago, Beachin2 said:

My buy order is in for $32.50.  I think there is still more downside as the actual numbers hit  the books.  I'll wait.

If I am buying and not yet I will throw in about 25ish.

I dont think 40 holds, 

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/RCL/xxF7fLSS-RCl/

47 was my strike put expiring Friday.  Almost already there.

I am gambling on this.  

Seattle shutting down the cruise port til after May.
 

I did some shorting around $50 with thought process $40 is support, just pure gamblig to try to be able to buy 100 shares later on.

Just now, SHIP TRAVELER said:

Any one know how RCL can be tanking (maybe halted at this time?) but Carnival (same industry) is up.

After all, Carnival owns Princess and may have to deal with law suits from trapped passengers in the long run.

Is there bad news on RCL?

Debt - Carnival has 67%, RCL is at 100%.

Carnival is rated above junk, RCL is Junk.

Hit 40.20 and bounced back to 42.  Does this hold no one knows. 

4 minutes ago, verizon said:

Thanks I will dollars in start at 40

Its still a failing knife into a black swan, so I cant tell your for sure if this is good or not.

The chart I am watching, RSI is 10 - normally anything under 30 was good buy, doesnt mean it can get closer to 0.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/RCL/xxF7fLSS-RCl/

1 minute ago, Life Buoy said:

There is an old adage: "Don't try to catch a falling knife". That could well be applied to RCL stock today.

Yep, $40, $24, $7 are the areas of support.  Which means there was a large amount of trading in this period where people in theory will be losing "profits". 

So do the cut to protect basis, or buy to support.

2 minutes ago, Trader Ron said:

Some people said they are on sale 2 weeks ago. I said IF CCL breaks 30, I don't know where the bottom is. LS 22.53.

2009 low was approximately 18.50 - This is next support after that nothing.

$40ish is next support level

Low was 60.36 now 70.14.

A Bunch of short covering this morning, will hopefully take a few days to sort out at this level.

16 minutes ago, josh.vincent.180 said:

Pre open trading 62.90

Here is what I am watching since 65 didnt hold, Just say 40,24, 9 is next support levels.

Also on bottom is 14 day RSI which is still 34.48, under 30 is  "OVERSOLD" BUT it doesnt mean it can go to 10 or 0 on RSI.

Pre open trading 62.90