On 4/10/2023 at 10:30 AM, BlerkOne said:

The sun might not come up tomorrow, what then? If you have already received more in OBC than the stock cost, so what?

Blerk, here's an article you will like.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/04/18/better-buy-in-2023-carnival-vs-royal-caribbean-sto/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

1 hour ago, KAP622 said:

Does the Mardi Gras have the omelet station?

Yes, but like other ships there will normally be a wait time on most days of 10-15 minutes depending on when you go.

6 hours ago, lasekeye said:

FYI..we bought our stock last night & the BUY went thru this AM.  Mid morning today I sent in 3 separate requests for 3 sailings (1 email May have been fine)….in less than 4 hours our shareholder OBC benefits are approved!

Yes, one email would suffice.  I did it last year for our three cruises between September and April.  All three were approved.

We loved Mardi Gras and have Celebration and Jubilee booked in the future.  Mardi Gras is so much better than the Conquest ships in way of dining and entertainment.  The center stage shows on Mardi Gras were the best we've seen in over 20 cruises.

We love Cozumel and have been there probably 15 times.  We've done some excursions in the past, but now we always take a taxi to Paradise Beach.  Never felt unsafe at all there.  We are not huge fans of Progreso.  We stay on the ship there.  We've only been to Costa Maya a couple of times.  If we were doing an excursion there, we would probably stick to a Carnival one.

1 hour ago, mz-s said:

Carnival's best option is to stick with their home port strategy of putting ships where their competitors aren't. They should be giving every concession conceivable to Charleston to keep that port open if it is possible (and it probably isn't, I'm sure they've tried for 10 years to make that port work and the NIMBYs are bound and determined to block it). Expand operations in Mobile as much as feasible. Put a newer ship, maybe an additional ship in Norfolk. Could Savannah, GA support a cruise ship? How about Corpus Christi, TX? There is enough interest in cruising right now that they could probably fill a ship every 4-8 hour's drive down the coastline.

 

They cannot compete against their competitor's when both are at the same port, except on price. Look at what happened when RCL came back to Long Beach - those Radiance and Panorama cruises are consistently some of the cheapest in the fleet despite being their newest non-Excel concepts. And competing on price won't pay down debt.

I've been hoping they would add a third ship to New Orleans doing Saturday-Saturday cruises.  The shorter itineraries there get old. I certainly believe that the N.O. market could support three ships.

10 minutes ago, tidecat said:

It's actually possible Royal's debt would exceed Carnival's. Carnival should be around $33 Billion at the end of 2023, then around $31 Billion at the end of 2024.

 

While Royal could have more revenue coming in with all of the new builds, their new ships cost around $50,000 more per lower berths than the Excel class - which when you multiply that out by as many as 6,000 berths, becomes a nut of around $300 million per ship.

Possibly.  With $10 Billion of new debt across the brands, or at least not being able to pay down that much more, they could be in the $31 Billion range themselves. Even with new ships, they should be able to pay down some of that,  Again, they will have four new ships in RC by 2026, and 11 across all the brands.  Given that it takes a couple of years to build a ship, Carnival would have to order in the next couple of years to have ships available by 2027.  It certainly sounds like they are not planning on adding any ships before then, if they do then.  That will be four years or so without a new ship.  This should help them pay down debt, but only time will tell which strategy works out best.

Unfortunately, I don't think Carnival really has a choice.  With $36 billion of debt, they have to get this down as fast as possible.

5 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

Royal's long term debt is over $20 billion. The ships on order will add another $10 billion. I guess they want to challenge Carnival for the title.

Perhaps, but even if all of it is debt, they would still have less than Carnival and have new ships producing a good revenue stream.

1 hour ago, jimbo5544 said:

You had me until the math equation at the end.  The mega liners have lots of drawbacks.  Will they have more new ships? Without a doubt.  Will that allow them premium pricing….up for debate, esp what history has shown us.

It's more anecdotal on my part, but I've been researching some RC cruises for late next year and early 2025.  Because it's Saturday to Saturday, Icon out of Miami works better for us.  However, because it's the newest ship coming, it is several hundred dollars higher than comparable cabins on their other ships like Symphony and Oasis.  Carnival has certainly done this in the past as well.

RCI definitely has an advantage over Carnival when it comes to new ships coming on, with four ships (one Oasis Class and three new Icon Class ships) by 2026.  The full corp is adding 11 new ships.  These four new ships will give RCI an advantage over Carnival in the next few years as new ships generate excitement and allow the line to charge more.

https://cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/2023/04/royal-caribbean-groups-10-billion-orderbook-includes-11-ships/

I hate to say I agree with Blerk 😀, but I do.  It sounds like the problem was the TA not doing them correctly.  I prefer to do my booking myself.  I recently had to cancel a cruise and I received an email with a link to the e-gift card withing two weeks.  I have already used it for our next cruise.

1 hour ago, groundloop said:

 

Since my original purchase with with an e-gift card I'm certain the refund will come in that form also.  And yes, I've been careful to check my email and spam folder.  

 

I've read reports that Carnival is seeing a record number of bookings so I'm sure their customer service people are very busy.  Hopefully I don't fall through the cracks.

 

 

Mine was an e-gift card as well, but I received a physical card for the refund.  However,  when I cancelled the actual cruise, I received an email with a link to an e-card.

Mine took about two weeks.  I received a Fedex package with a gift card.

18 hours ago, jimbo5544 said:

24 bill at the high point.  Not sure where they are now but def less

Carnival's debt is over $35 billion

Carnival ended the first quarter with $5.4 billion in cash and $35.1 billion in debt, for net debt of $29.7 billion. At year-end 2019 (with Carnival's fiscal year ending in November), just prior to the pandemic, net debt was $11 billion.

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/carnival-beats-expectations-but-its-stock-still-doesn-t-merit-a-party-16119631?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

43 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

CCL also has more cash on hand than Royal and NCL combined

They also have more debt than the others combined

TD Ameritrade is a good way to buy any stocks.  After you get your account set up it is simple to fund and use.  No fees to trade.

24 minutes ago, tidecat said:

It looks like 2027's fate is TBD

Yes, it certainly does.  Based on what they are saying, I wouldn't expect any new ships until at least 2028.  It sounds clear that they are planning to use this to help pay down debt. That could help position them for the future (2028 and beyond.)  However, the big problem is that the other cruise lines appear to be continuing to build new ships, which allows them to continue to create excitement and charge more.  Which plan is better?  Time will tell.

"Carnival Beats Expectations, but Its Stock Still Doesn't Merit a Party"

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/ca763371-c081-345e-b463-87b87ddab5d6/carnival-beats-expectations-.html

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Of course, an $800 investment for $100 OBC is a very nice return (not to mention $250 on longer cruises). And let’s face it, if you can’t afford to lose $800 you really have no business in the market right now 

Definitely shouldn't be in the market and one could argue that you may not need to be spending money on cruising either.

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Actually, it got dangerously close to the 5’s. I believe she bottomed out at $6.12.

IMO, we will see these numbers again. It’s great that they beat estimates but the market is responding to increased debt even at 91% occupancy. Assuming inflation halts (and that is unlikely), CCL can barely squeak a profit even if they can hit 100% occupancy at historic highs. The interest only payments on 35 Billion (with a B) is a very serious anchor. 

I wouldn't be surprised it that does happen.

8 minutes ago, ibarrio said:

This would be a good time to buy for a long hold. 100 shares for less than $900 dollars. That $900 will can come back as OBC so it will pay for itself over time.  

Yes, the OBC is a good benefit if you buy it low, but it may pay to wait a little before buying it.  I wouldn't be surprised if it drops another $1 or more per share this year.  Last fall it got below $7 for a period.

As many of us thought all along, it's going to be a long rocky road for Carnival stockholders.  In spite of having great bookings and revenues, as well as a less than expected loss for the last quarter, the stock still moved negative today. It is also dragging down the other cruise stocks, though these are down nearly as much as Carnival. As of 2:20 eastern, Carnival is down over 5% today compared to RCI at .12% and NCLH at 1.95%.  The debt continues to be a huge problem for Carnival.  Another huge factor is that Carnival expects a loss for this year of 28-44 cents per share instead of the estimated 8 cents per share due to rising operating costs.  Don't look to make big money on Carnival stock anytime in the near future.  Because of the much larger number of shares outstanding now compared to 2019, the stock may take decades to ever get near the 2019 price again.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carnival-corp-posts-smaller-loss-133147129.html

It wasn't a necessity at any time.  We didn't use Verifly on any of our cruises (5) since restart. We never had any issues without it.

I haven't been on Panorama, but in over 20 cruises I've never had success with wi-fi calling and I always get the premium plan.

On 3/18/2023 at 7:31 PM, mz-s said:

Be forewarned that early dining is probably the most popular dining choice, so it might not be possible for you to have a private table.

I believe that John said the YTD is now the most popular choice. On our last few cruises, it was on both levels of the the dining room because there were so many.