Thank you so much @notamermaid!! I really appreciate the references and input.
It definitely seems like a mixed bag of experiences, but in general, people only had one or two ship swaps. That's encouraging!
I'm getting the sense that it is difficult to get a totally accurate prediction until the weeks leading up to the cruise. In the meantime, I'll keep reading through these threads and then follow up closer to the cruise dates for a better idea of water levels.