york survey

13 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Thanks for posting.  It seems that some of this probably was a pre-determined strategy that just got accelerated to save cash.

Which together with delaying new builds reduces short term capacity - Always like your comments!

10 hours ago, jg51 said:

 

 

Another reason for the massive increase may be that "X" made a decision, over the weekend, to reduce guest capacity significantly -- and to fill most available staterooms with crew members (living privately instead of sharing).  We suspect that they did the arithmetic and determined that they could avoid taking a big loss if they were to greatly increase the fares for the remaining staterooms.

That's where I have my money and it does imply that things are start to take shape

There has been a lot of talk about over capacity in the industry and that RCCL as a group will be looking to sell off or even scrap some of the fleet as the expected return to "normal" is potentially slow.

I've never understood this argument for 3 reasons

1. Who will be in the market to buy cruise ships?

2. Royal/Celebrity still carry substantial debt against it's ships

3. Fleets are relatively new and cost effective to run.

However overnight the following news came out https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/23074-pullmantur-ships-move-to-cold-lay-up.html Pullmantur is a RCCL joint venture running 3/4 old retired Royal ships. 

All their cruises are now cancelled until 15th November 2020 and once in cold layup the ships could take months to recommission. Furthermore all the crew contracts have been transferred to CELEBRITY!

The RCCL group is clearly looking at options for this line. These ships could be brought back if things improve quickly or they might just disappear and be replaced by Constellation and Infinity. Reducing capacity and cutting out the "revolution" costs

Views?

Stuart

Is it just me or have other people noticed that the offers, which seen to be coming out from Celebrity almost daily, ALL cover cruises between 2nd October and the end of the current booking window.

Is this normal or a restart hint?

6 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

You're correct to ask.  The 30% - 50% referenced in the conference call referred to an accounting calculation called EBITDA.  Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization.  EBITDA is another way to look at net income and does not include the very large interest costs.  They would still incur huge loses in a 30% "breakeven scenario" but it might be about equal to the cost of just floating around without passengers. 

You are absolutely right in that the 30 - 50% figures related to EBITDA and not what most people would consider a break even point

However it is the point at which the cruise line starts to lose less money running the cruise then not 

As such I think it does represent the point where the cruise is viable but not profitable 

4 minutes ago, madmacs said:

One of us will be right - we are on the same cruise if it runs!

Stay positive and I'll buy you a drink as soon as we board!!

8 minutes ago, jelayne said:

The September Transpacific sailings of both the Millenium  and Eclipse from Vancouver to Tokyo have been cancelled. 

Yes that's a problem with my assumptions so could see some moves and rejigs. 

I'm clearly on a roll (with a little help for another topic!!)

So my original post suggested a start up with 3 ships. I'm not saying that's right and we have had a great discussion on it.

The 3 ships were Constellation (currently off Greece), infinity (Currently heading for India) and Apex ( in Saint Nazaire). 

What if Infinity stays in India until the start of August and then takes on enough crew for the 3 ships and heads back.  With reduced passengers resulting in reduced crew it could bring back enough crew for all 3 ships and the 4 week trip back would be an automatic quarantine.  

Glass half Full!!

2 minutes ago, Algebralovr said:

Please remember that Apex has not yet been delivered to Celebrity just yet.  While some of the crew had joined her to get her ready, Celebrity has not yet taken possession, so she is not yet owned by Celebrity.  They will have a bit of work to get her operational.

Celebrity took delivery in a virtual ceremony on 27th of March but your right in that it's still at the yard. Could be in the ideal place to fit any adjustments needed for the post coronavirus world

15 minutes ago, BigAl94 said:

 The reasons  that the competition are not cruising will also be the reasons that Celebrity won't either.

A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity, an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty - Winston Churchill

10 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

Even cruises in Europe have had a majority of American passengers.  I'm not sure about the Chinese market but I thought that I have read that the Chines cruises were dominated by non-Chinese guests.  If that's the case, it won't make sense to operate cruises from China before international air travel resumes.

 

I doubt the break even point is anywhere close to 30% - 50%, the first couple of cruises may be near 50%, but after that they will need to increase the capacity so that they don't lose more money by sailing.

I agree that European Celebrity cruises still have a majority of American passengers but Southampton carries a much higher number of UK residents. I think more then the 30% required but just a guess. Furthermore this could increase as the competition have just about called it a day!!

The 30% minimum passengers to break even has been confirmed by the Royal CEO

1 minute ago, madmacs said:

I can't see Celebrity operating out of Southampton in September. UK based companies P&O and Cunard have cancelled all cruises  until mid October and November respectively and Princess have cancelled their European season. Effectively Celebrity would be the only company with large ships offering cruises from Southampton this summer or even early Autumn - can't see it. Hope I am wrong as we are booked on Silhouette in early October.

 

I look at it the other way round. With all the other main lines cancelling out of Southampton this increases the opportunity for Celebrity to pick up some local passengers. Helping them to make the required load factors - Take market share 

I believe they could easily get to the 30% required for Apex without our American friends (I'll add that it would be a shame as the best cruises are the multi national ones)

PS I'm also on the Silhouette this back end - 9th October!!

1 minute ago, groryjm said:

 Stuart 

 

Why would Celebrity cancel already booked cruises out of Barcalona when Spain has announced it is oppening up for tourism from July? I agree that Apex will probably sail in Europe this year and probably from August but I doubt X will change it's already booked Itineraries.

Fair point as changes cost money.

It's only a guess but..... Celebrity are more likely to get the required minimum number of passengers from Southampton then Barcelona.  Also my assumptions have Constellation and Infinity restarting in the Med at the same time - where there is a more limited demand

Stuart

4 minutes ago, Miaminice said:

 

I am with you that cruises will start first anywhere but the US and therefore Caribbean.
At places which are further ahead in fighting the virus plus which are not under CDC jurisdiction.
Reading and listening between the lines of various statements of the CEOs etc. shows as much.

Europe, especially after the opening of some countries, will be one of the first. However, also (and maybe sooner) China and Asia. A hint for that was already given at the earnings call. Royal´s short cruises maketed in China might even beat Europe.

Some cruise lines in Europe are already starting to offer cruises - Le Ponant will start July 4th.
River Cruises will start even sooner. Sea Dream offers cruises in Norway - for Norwegians only.

 

At the moment I am doubtful thar Celebrity and Royal will start in Europe by September.
No onboard protocols have been introduced so far.

Also, many passengers of Celebrity etc. are Americans. I am not sure when the EU will let Americans in again for tourism. Given the numbers and still steeply rising curve in the US, I think that will take a while.

I think we are on the same page

Agree that Royal's short cruises in Asia will be first but I was trying to focus on Celebrity

I also agree that Americans will either not want to travel to the EU or will not be permitted in withing this timeline.

So the hottest tip of all (for Celebrity) would be a start in September with Apex from Southampton. Southampton is the only Europe port that gets enough local passengers to make the cruise viable, Apex is still in the ship yard in Saint Nazaire so any adjustments could be done quickly

Of course I still stand by my other guesses - but time will tell

First of all this is TOTAL guess work but i'm starting to think a September start in Europe is the more practical solution!

Lets have a look at what we already know for interviews with the CEO of Royal, Carnival and Norwegian

1. The current startup date is 1st August is very unlikely to be achieved as no start up plans have yet been approved by the CDC indeed CDC have yet to supply any details of their requirements

2. Cruises are likely to start in Europe and Asia first as these areas are considered, in general, ahead of the US and South America in controlling the virus

3. Initially cruises will sail below capacity to ensure social distancing

4. Newer ships will be returned to service first as they need less people to break even or make a profit (some as low as 30% capacity needed) 

5. Shorter cruises are likely to return first and be less susceptible to passengers cancelling

6. Round trip cruises are likely to return first because at lease some passengers can drive to the port

7. Changes to ports of call should be expected

8. Moving empty ships around the world is expensive.

9. Flying could remain a problem making the number of bookings from local residents more critical in deciding which cruises start first.

10. It will be extremely difficult to sell new cruises at short notice in the current circumstances

So what do I expect.

1. No cruises will take place in US waters or from US ports until the start of the Caribbean season in October/November. The CDC will just not get it's act together in time and the virus will not be controlled to a level where enough people are confident to cruise

2. No further empty ship movements will happen as most ships are in the correct place for a restart already.

3. Europe will start first but not until September to avoid the longer summer cruises and restaff the ships

4. Constellation (currently off Greece) return to service first completing a late summer part season in the Med before moving to the Caribbean as planned

5. Infinity will return from India (returning Crew) and also finish it's late summer Med season prior to heading back to the Caribbean

6. Apex will replace Silhouette from early September and run out of Southampton. She is already in Northern France just 200 miles away and Southampton has the largest number of "drive to" cruisers outside the US

7. Silhouettes South America Season will be cancelled and she will run short 3 or 4 day cruises out of Florida from as soon as the CDC permit.

8. Millennium, Eclipse and Solstice. Will restart in the Far East/Australia in the fall

As I said - Just wild guesses. I'm sure you have you own ideas and of course "ONLY TIME WILL TELL"

Stuart

1 hour ago, NM2020 said:

Hello all

 

First time cruiser here and booked on Alaska cruise next summer. We are in a concierge cabin and I need to know how easy (hard) it may be to stow away 3 regular size cases.

 

Thanks.

 

Nigel 

Nigel,

You will have no problem as 3 cases will slide under the bed. I normally leave a few "flight" things in them to make a bit more space in the cabin

Alaska is a fantastic trip!!

53 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

That's not accurate, there are many jurisdictions where vaccinations are mandatory. With respect to cruising, no line can force you to take a vaccine or certify that you have, but they can refuse you boarding if they choose to make that their policy.

And yellow fever is a prime example.  To travel from an affected area to a tropical fever free area you have to prove vaccine with an international certificate.  ie travel from Brazil to Singapore without a certificate and you will not get in!!

it’s not a long way from this to requiring a certificate to join a ship

not saying it’s right!!

8 minutes ago, NewWestwardbound said:

If I saw a price for a cruise in Aug 20 significantly less than the broadly equivalent cruise in Aug 21 (same ship; embarkation and disembarkation ports; duration and most ports of call) is there anything stopping me booking the Aug 20 cruise and immediately lifting and shifting to Aug 21? Grateful for pitfalls I may not have thought through.......

I was looking and thinking the same. Personally can't see any problems but will see what other say

13 minutes ago, wolfie11 said:

The restriction says 100 passengers and crew, and I'm pretty sure it takes more than 100 crew to sail a cruise ship. 

If it goes to Canada!

I know the Jones act and that - BUT - who expected us to be in this position just 3 months ago

Looking forward to the Celebrity update later today

9 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Taking Celebrity Eclipse as an example, there are 66 suites out of 1426 total cabins.  Most of which are Sky Suites and very few actual high end suites.  So do we really think Celebrity will spend all that money to run a ship for a week with only a few suite passengers no matter what they charge them??

Can't see any way Celebrity will run a ship with only top end suites. We already know that the break even point on Millennium class is 50% and all the fleet need at least 30% on board to cover EBITDA costs

Personally I think they have just stopped taking bookings as they are already at or about the sweet spot of covering costs v social distancing reduction. The cruise probable will not go but if i does passenger number will be restricted. So taking off sale achieves a number of things.

1. If the ship doesn't sail less 125% FCC to give out

2. If it sails less or no one to disappointed by bumping  

3. Keeps demand (and therefore prices) high for future sailing

4. Stops any repricing under the enhanced "Cruise with Confidence"

However, if someone wants to take one of the empty high on suites at mega $$$ - I'm sure Celebrity will make room!!

Just having a quick look and it's appears there have been a number of changes to available cabins.

Firstly, as noted on this thread, the whole Alaska season is now only bookable in suites.

Secondly, the same now applies to the Summit New England/Canada season including the two Canada Trans Atlantics in August

Finally, I may have missed some but it looks like only the top suites are available as i can't find and Sky Suites on any of these cruises.

Does that mean that the others bookings are to be bumped or just stopped for further sales to keep numbers down?  Time will tell

6 hours ago, crusinthrough said:

Did I miss a major cruise news announcement?  

 

RCL closed at $54 today.  Obviously, the price will go up and down but the people who take a chance and purchased when the price was $20 or $30 are ahead.  

 

  CCL and NCL are also up.  

Remember it's only a profit if you cash in!!

I got the 100 share required for the additional OBC last Friday at £42. As we normally take 2 x 14 night cruises a year we'll get $500 OBC across the two cruises. That's a 12% return with no price movement

The fact that it's up 25% since then is a bonus but only a paperwork exercise.

2 hours ago, LXA350 said:

 

Looking at the situation in North America if we will see cruises commence again as early as August the highest chance will be out of Europe, Mediteranean, cruises.

 

On one hand I canot see it happen yet, but looking at Italy for instance, no one would have thought they would open it's borders on June 3rd still some weeks ago. Hence this makes me somewhat optimistic to see X and RCL to start offerin cruises again as of August at least out of Europe. Given that the newest and largest ships enable the cruiselines a lower breakeven point seing Apex and Allure offering cruises as of August is quite a realistic scenario. Also, all those concepts that will need to be introduced, you need to start testing these under real conditions as various processes will also need to be adjusted but those lessons can only be learned from practical experience. Hence if the conditions allow it, even with lots of restrictions on the origin of passengers that can board the ship, likely only European Union ( Shengen) it's a start and with 2-3 ships operating X and RCL will manage to fill each ship at least at 30-50% capacity.

I agree with a lot of what you’re saying.  Makes sense to start up in Europe and things are changing very quickly

However, I’ve never been on a celebrity Mediterranean cruise which had 30% shengen passengers but I have been on a Southampton cruise with about 50% British. 
 

I think celebrity will start up August and use the two ship already in Europe to test the market. Constellation (currently in Athens) will run the rest of her season and Apex (currently in northern France) will substitute silhouette to run out of Southampton (UK quarantine will be quickly scrapped 

One things for certain- this is not over yet!

4 minutes ago, LXA350 said:

 

IF a cruise season will happen by X as of August I guess it will only be Apex and likely to cover their own originally planed iinarary or a mix between theirs and the one that was planed for Edge. Doubt they wil move any ship to Europe that isn't there yet and given the situation in the UK will need time to recover this will be the last place in Europe from where cruises will embark.

I think we’re on a similar page.  The question is where to start

The med is starting to get the situation under control and the U.K. is a few weeks behind them

But the release made a big play on “Drive to ports” and the U.K. (Southampton) is the only Europe port with enough drive to customers to cover the load break even numbers

Guess time will tell. But I stand by my main point. 
 

Very slow start up after August using Apex first

13 minutes ago, kebrown said:

I think that there is a real possibility that cruises could start in August in parts of Europe.  Many European counties are starting to accelerate the lifting of restrictions because they are starting to feel the economic impact of not having any tourists.  I was watching a news segment on the BBC last night about some of the towns in Italy that depend on tourism and they are desperate for tourists to come back this summer.  I also saw a news story that reported Greece and Spain are determined to have a tourist season this summer as well.  I think August is possible for cruising in Europe as long as the infections continue to decrease.

I agree. As ever i'm optimistic but there are a few more takeaways for yesterdays press conference/announcement.

Firstly we were told to expect Europe and Asia to open first

Secondly we were told to expect "drive to home ports" to open first

Finally we were told that the newer the ship the less passengers needed to break even (newest ships need 30% but older ones need 50%)

So how about a slow start using Apex (currently in France) to cover Southampton Silhouette sailings

But if the question is "will Celebrity open up everything again on 1st August - NO