Wehwalt

6 hours ago, AlanF65 said:

I would hazard a guess they would want to save their customers that if they went into bankruptcy they would force a renegotiation of long and short term debt with their lenders and carve out customers and small vendors, what good does it do them to lose all their customers and food and fuel vendors in all the ports? It's easier to carve out the big debt and term it out under new terms.

 

The ships and name have significantly less value if current/ former customers wont sail with them, which would kill the lenders.

 

 

They might. Or they might give ten cents on the dollar in coupons. My point was they don't have to stand behind them in bankruptcy. And given that CCL's major asset is foreign-flagged ships, it might be difficult to free up funds to pay off the passengers. 

I would not expect public opinion in the US to support the passengers. Go read the comments on any article on Zaandam open for comments in the media.

1 hour ago, AncientWanderer said:

We're all just guessing, right?

So my guess is that there will be stiff competition and lots of advertising as to who has the most high-tech ventilation systems and the most state-of-the-art medical facilities onboard.  All else will remain largely the same.  

Not to mention the high-tech morgue and the great devices for detecting if you've opened your stateroom door a crack while under quarantine.

Seriously, people are going to be very concerned about the premature termination of the cruise and repatriation and little things like that. 

5 minutes ago, mainelycruising said:

Does anyone know, if a cruise line declares bankruptcy through cash liquidity issues, where in the line of creditors do those with FCCs stand?

Unsecured creditors at best, if these FCC's have monetary value, which they may or may not. In other words, at the end of the line of creditors, or pretty close.

I suspect that HAL will announce the same today and the only reason they didn't before was the Zaandam situation.

22 minutes ago, DAllenTCY said:

If you must use your credit before January 2022 (seems unlikely to me)....perhaps consider these options:

 

           79/74 -day Grand Africa    Amsterdam departing Oct.3, 2021

 

           74-day Grand South America & Antarctica   Amsterdam (first leg of 2021 WC) departing  January 4, 2021

 

 

Are you quoting from somewhere on this? I was previously unaware the Grand Africa would be given in 2021 and the websites I've seen say Amsterdam will end a 13-day repositioning from Montreal in FLL on 10/22/21.

This has some interesting coverage of some of the people on Zaandam.

https://www.businessinsider.com/elderly-couple-on-coronavirus-stricken-ship-says-theyre-stuck-aboard-2020-3

2 minutes ago, knittinggirl said:

We did the Panama Canal in 1999, and I think the pilot had to board the ship.  Also, during the Gatun Locks, the outer decks were packed, and we were right next to the land.  The Ryndam seemed like a close fit.

I've done it seven times. It's always a thrill.

3 minutes ago, LMaxwell said:

Are we seeing different information? Info I am seeing shows guests were ashore and on excursions on 3/14 and HAL says basically the same. Am I misunderstanding ? 

My understanding is they could go on excursions but not disembark/fly out. They couldn't stay behind. 

15 minutes ago, iancal said:

I am not so sure that Panama did change their decision.  Their Gov’t , to my knowledge, was silent publically.
 

HAL’s press releases may have given the impression that transit had been agreed by indicating that it was HAL’s plan.   It could be that Panama has said no all along.

49 minutes ago, ducklite said:

The numbers were lower and it wasn't confirmed as COVID-19?  Or perhaps they never actually had permission to transit.  Everything I've read was that HAL was "seeking permission," not that they had gained it.

This article which I previously posted says otherwise.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/passengers-die-aboard-cruise-ship-stranded-panama-200327190914188.html

"On Wednesday, Panama's Health Minister Rosario Turner had said the Zaandam would be allowed to pass through the canal.

But on Friday morning, Panama's seaway administrator Ricaurte Vasquez said the health ministry had denied access to the liner."

31 minutes ago, ducklite said:

It's quite possible that there is a slight gap in translation and the typical American usage of the word sanitary.  "Sanitary" also means "free from infectious disease."   In Spanish speaking Panama, that could easily mean that they are refusing passage because the ship is not free from infectious disease.  

It could be. Of course, the ship had infectious disease Wednesday, too, when according to reports there was permission to transit the Canal. Still wondering why Panama would have changed its mind.

2 minutes ago, ducklite said:

Many people who use them don't need them to stay alive. They might have low level sleep apnea which affects their sleep patterns but isn't going to cause them to stop breathing entirely and pass away.  Others use them to prevent snoring.

I suspect they don't want to have to sort out who needs them and who doesn't, given time constraints.

7 hours ago, sppunk said:

Cruise ships are sailing before the dead of summer at the earliest, is my guess.

 

My guess is how many actually sell. Demand is going to be the weakest it’s ever been, and birth rates are obviously skyrocket high.

Or will be in nine months ... kinda like the NYC blackout in the 60s ...

13 minutes ago, sansterre said:

 

Hmmmm, What sanitary conditions would the officials be referring to?

Here is that item Wewalt must be referring to....... I cut and pasted from near the bottom of the above url:

 

00:01 GMT - Cruise ship with coronavirus outbreak blocked from transiting Panama Canal

Panamanian health officials have blocked Holland America Line's MS Zaandam from transiting the Panama Canal, citing sanitary conditions after a coronavirus outbreak on board the cruise ship. 

Four passengers have died on board, with more than 130 others suffering from influenza-like symptoms. At least two of them have the coronavirus, the vessel's operator said.

The ship is carrying 1,243 guests and 586 crew, as well as four doctors and four nurses, the cruise operator said in a statement.

That is the one I was referring to. I wonder if any new information came to the attention of the Panamanian authorities between Wednesday and Friday to cause them to change their minds.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/passengers-die-aboard-cruise-ship-stranded-panama-200327190914188.html

That's an interesting article, as is the little squib discussing Zaandam some ways below the main story. If this is accurate, permission had been granted on Wednesday but that was contradicted on Friday, and the squib below says Zaandam was denied based on "sanitary conditions". 

This will either be HAL's finest hour or a nail in its coffin and at this point, I wouldn't care to venture which.

1 hour ago, LMaxwell said:

 

Dividend is unsustainable at current levels; look for cuts there.  Those cuts should drive the stock lower however 

Probably already priced in. No one thinks they can sustain the dividend.

3 minutes ago, HAL4NOW said:

It would make perfect sense if the two testing positive received false positive results. 

That would be my hope, but err on the side of caution and assume there could be more cases.

 

It makes sense if they had a limited number of testing kits.  And the dead were, I'd imagine, not tested.

It sounds to me, by getting as many asymptomatic people off the ship as possible, that they fear a situation where Zaandam cannot find a port willing to take her.

All that seems too much like "a plague o' both your houses" with a touch of "Yankee go home" to me.

As of 8:00 pm EDT, per the Navigator app:

Zaandam 5.28 N 80.99 W

Rotterdam 5.79 N 81.27 W

Distance (thanks Phil09) 35 nmi

As of 7:00 pm EDT, per the Navigator app:

Zaandam 4.98 N 80.91 W

Rotterdam 6.06 N 81.54 W

Distance (thanks Phil09) 75 nmi

As of 6 pm EDT per my app:

Zaandam 4.68 N, 80.84 W

Rotterdam 6.30 N, 81.84 W

What's reported on my app right now (5:10 pm EDT)

Zaandam: 4.45 N, 80.78 W

Rotterdam 6.49 N, 82.07 W

3 minutes ago, Steve Q said:

See the link below. It appears as though no financial aid for cruise lines was included in the latest Stimulus Bill. It is certainly possible that it could be forthcoming in future legislation.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-bailout-could-exclude-carnival-norwegian-royal-caribbean-cruise-lines.html?&qsearchterm=cruise lines

It reads like the bill is ambiguous. If the bill is ambiguous, then it's probably going to be up to the Treasury Secretary. No one would have standing to sue to prevent it, I suspect.

According to the Navigator app, the positions are (North latitude, west longitude)

Zaandam: 4.14, 80.70

Rotterdam: 6.73, 82.37