Greek Economy could affect travel plans

[NYCruiser23]

We went in april and I am glad we did it. Plus I found the people of greece extremely appreciative for us being there and spending money.

[porsena]

I was in Athens on Oct 9 with Constellation. My objective was to walk to the Piraeus metro station and take the train to the National Archaelogical Museum, which I did. The museum entry was free because it was Sunday (no further comment). Aside from garbage piled in the street I saw no evidence of the unrest reported above. The cruise also visited Rhodes, Santorini and Mykonos, all of which seemed quite unaffected.

[TLCOhio]

I was in Athens on Oct 9 with Constellation. My objective was to walk to the Piraeus metro station and take the train to the National Archaelogical Museum, which I did. The museum entry was free because it was Sunday (no further comment). Aside from garbage piled in the street I saw no evidence of the unrest reported above. The cruise also visited Rhodes, Santorini and Mykonos, all of which seemed quite unaffected.

 

Glad things worked well for your visit to Athens on Oct. 9. Clearly this week is going to be tough for those visiting Greece on Oct. 19-20.

 

From the New York Times this morning, they have this headline: "Bureaucracy in Greece Defies Efforts to Cut It" with these highlights: "Stories of eye-popping waste and abuse of power among Greece’s bureaucrats are legion, including officials who hire their wives, and managers who submit $38,000 bills for office curtains. The work force in Greece’s Parliament is so bloated, according to a local press investigation, that some employees do not even bother to come to work because there are not enough places for all of them to sit."

 

The story continues to detail how these factors are a part of the overall story about Greece trying to fix its economy: "This week, the government’s resolve will be tested once again. Greece’s two major umbrella unions have called for a rare 48-hour general strike, and several critical austerity measures are coming up for votes in Parliament, including one that would cut 30,000 public-sector jobs. Some experts believe that Greece could reap significant savings by reducing its bureaucracy, which employs one out of five workers in the country and by some estimates could be trimmed by as much as a third without materially affecting services. But though salaries have been cut, the government has yet to lay off anyone."

 

Full story at:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/18/world/europe/greeces-bloated-bureaucracy-defies-efforts-to-cut-it.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&ref=world&adxnnlx=1318943843-LY32JJz9XqHT9HlYMUNClQ

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

 

Recently back from a June 7-19 Solstice cruise from Barcelona that had stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Enjoyed great weather and a wonderful trip. Dozens of wonderful visuals with key highlights, tips, comments, etc., on these postings. We are now at 44,644 views for this live/blog re-cap on our first sailing with Celebrity and much on wonderful Barcelona. Check these postings and added info at:

http://www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

[TLCOhio]

Here are a couple of added breaking news stories/reports from Athens today.

 

From the National Public Radio (NPR) within the past hour this morning, they have this headline: "Greece: Emergency Powers To Tackle Garbage Strike" with these highlights: "Greece is using emergency powers to order garbage crews back to work, as an escalating campaign of strikes by public servants and other unions against austerity measures has crippled services in the troubled eurozone member. Socialist Prime Minister George Papandreou issued the civil mobilization order Tuesday, on the 17th day of a collectors' strike that has left piles of rotting garbage around the Greek capital. Unions are planning a general strike Wednesday and Thursday — grounding all flights and halting most public services — and plan to try and disrupt a vote in parliament to pass the toughest austerity measures since Greece's financial crisis began two years."

 

From the AP reporter on the scene this morning, they have this headline: "Greek strike wave grows ahead of austerity vote" with these highlights: "Greek railway workers and journalists joined ferry crews, garbage collectors, tax officials and lawyers on Tuesday in a strike blitz against yet more austerity measures required if the country is to avoid defaulting on its debts. The protests will lead into a general strike over the coming two days, culminating on Thursday when Parliament holds a crucial vote on the new painful cutbacks that follow nearly two years of austerity. A similar strike before an austerity bill in June was accompanied by large protest marches which degenerated into street battles between rioters and police."

 

Full stories at:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=141453287

http://www.kansascity.com/2011/10/18/3214136/greek-strike-wave-grows-ahead.html

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

 

Recently back from a June 7-19 Solstice cruise from Barcelona that had stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Enjoyed great weather and a wonderful trip. Dozens of wonderful visuals with key highlights, tips, comments, etc., on these postings. We are now at 44,644 views for this live/blog re-cap on our first sailing with Celebrity and much on wonderful Barcelona. Check these postings and added info at:

http://www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

[TLCOhio]

The new cuts will likely be approved later today and then things will start to return to "normal" (whatever that is) on Friday and for next week. Good luck to upcoming cruisers with stops in Athens and Greece.

 

Nick_Arch has posted lots of recent info from

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1493625&page=3

for how things are now impacting in Athens.

 

It is a very sad situation in Greece. Default is possible for Greece. Maybe. Maybe not. Lots of financial uncertainty for Greece and Europe. If Greece defaults and/or leaves the euro, many banks and bond-holders in German, France, etc., will have huge losses. It's a complicated situation with no easy or quick fixes.

 

From Bloomberg news reporters on the scene in Athens in the last half hour, they have this headline: "Greek Police Clash With Protesters in Central Athens" with these highlights: "Greek police used tear gas to disperse protesters during the second day of a 48-hour strike in central Athens today as hooded youths attacked demonstrators encircling Parliament House. The group of about 200 youths threw stones and fire bombs at the Communist Party of Greece-backed PAME union demonstrators who had formed a ring around the assembly early in the morning to protest against Prime Minister George Papandreou’s latest austerity measures. The bill is being debated in the chamber, with a vote due at some point later today. Police estimated that 50,000 people gathered in the city center in the second straight day of protests against Papandreou’s pension and wage cuts."

 

From BBC in the last 30 minutes, they have this headline: "Clashes erupt at mass rally over Greece austerity bill" with these highlights: "Greek television footage showed masked rioters attacking trade unionists before the trade unionists counter-charge, AFP news agency reports. On Wednesday, at least 40 people were injured in running battles in central Athens. At least 35,000 protesters gathered on Syntagma Square, in front of parliament, on Thursday. There are fears that if the Greek government defaults on its debts, it will set off a chain reaction that could engulf banks and other highly indebted eurozone nations. But the government is struggling to convince lenders that it is cutting effectively enough. "

 

More stories below from the AP and Reuters with the latest, on-site info. The Reuters story noted: "The mood among the crowd, estimated by police at more than 60,000 had been peaceful until the disturbance in front of the luxury hotels lining Syntagma Square."

 

Full stories at:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-20/greek-police-clash-with-protesters-in-central-athens.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15377398

http://www.chron.com/business/article/Violent-protesters-attack-peaceful-ones-in-Athens-2227446.php

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/20/us-greece-idUSTRE79H1FI20111020

 

THANKS! Terry in Ohio

 

Recently back from a June 7-19 Solstice cruise from Barcelona that had stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Enjoyed great weather and a wonderful trip. Dozens of wonderful visuals with key highlights, tips, comments, etc., on these postings. We are now at 44,831 views for this live/blog re-cap on our first sailing with Celebrity and much on wonderful Barcelona. Check these postings and added info at:

http://www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

[TLCOhio]

[COLOR="Blue"][SIZE="3"][FONT="Georgia"] From the AP and CBS News within the past hour this morning, they have this headline: [B][I]"Greek civil servants plan new strikes next week"[/I][/B] with these highlights: [I]"Greek unions on Friday threatened further strikes next week, a day after parliament approved new harsh cutbacks to secure international loans despite protests and riots that left one man dead and nearly 200 injured. Ilias Iliopoulos, secretary-general of the Adedy civil servant union, insisted the new law 'will not be implemented.' Greece's main private sector union, GSEE, was also planning new strikes. 'We plan long-running opposition to ensure that the crippling cutbacks imposed by our loan-shark creditors are not enforced,' said GSEE board member Stathis Anestis. European officials have already admitted that a second bailout for Greece, agreed to in July, is not enough to prevent the country from bankruptcy, and this discussions this weekend will focus on ways to increase support for Greece."[/I]

Germany and France are still trying to figure out their next steps on what they do with Greece and other "bail-outs" that might be needed for that country, plus others in Europe. [B][I]Sadly, this "issue" is far from over and done. [/I][/B]

Full story at:
[url]http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-501369_162-20123661.html[/url]

THANKS! Terry in Ohio[/FONT][/SIZE][/COLOR]

Recently back from a June 7-19 Solstice cruise from [B]Barcelona that had stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik[/B]. Enjoyed great weather and a wonderful trip. Dozens of wonderful visuals with key highlights, tips, comments, etc., on these postings. We are now at 44,981 views for this live/blog re-cap on our first sailing with Celebrity and much on wonderful Barcelona. Check these postings and added info at:
[B][url]www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474[/url][/B]

[TLCOhio]

[quote name='nick_arch']Well. . . as expected, things were surreal at Syndagma Square but more calm if you walked out a bit. Today, it's business as normal. With Happy Train running around, you had a rough time to understand this is the place where pictures all saw took place. Despite the fact that traces of destruction of property were more than obvious, this morning was business as usual everywhere, except the ferries that are still on strike. All tourism related businesses or services (including ancient sites and museums) in Athens were running normally today as if a magic wand swept the city. [B]Future strikes? [/B]My assumption is that we will go on a phase where some strikes will take place here and there, in sectors that don't affect tourism business. I don't think we will see another "general" strike or serious disruption for 4 - 5 weeks. Next march most probably at November 17th 2011.[/QUOTE]

[COLOR="Blue"][SIZE="3"][FONT="Georgia"] The detailed info from nick_arch continues to be very helpful. Now the focus is on Brussels and the Europe finance ministers trying to bail-out Greece and others. Others reports seems to reflect that Athens and other parts of that country are getting back to "normal" (whatever that is) in Greece. Good luck to the upcoming cruise visitors there.

From the Guardian this morning, they have this headline: [B][I]"EU could source bailout funds from Asia and the Gulf"[/I][/B] with these highlights: [I]"The EU could tap sovereign wealth funds from Asia and the Gulf in order to boost the financial clout of its main vehicle to bailout eurozone countries suffering debt distress and prevent contagion spreading. Finance ministers from the 17 eurozone countries are discussing the option of creating a 'special purpose vehicle' for the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) in order to boost its current €440bn (£383bn) lending capacity. A strictly confidential report from Greece's 'troika' of debt inspectors warns that the banks will have to accept 60% losses or 'haircuts' if governments were to limit their second bailout to €109bn. It says Greece could require €252bn in support between now and the end of 2020 and, in a worst case scenario, this could rise to almost €450bn."[/I]

From Reuters and a London newspaper, they have this headline: [B][I]"How Europe can stave off a crisis"[/I][/B] in a column/analysis by former UK Finance and Prime Minister Gordon Brown with these highlights: [I]"It was said of European monarchs of a century ago that they learned nothing and forgot nothing. For three years, as a Greek debt problem has morphed into a full blown euro area crisis, European leaders have been behind the curve, consistently repeating the same mistake of doing too little too late. For three years it has suited leaders across Europe to disguise Europe’s banking problems and, citing the blatant profligacy of Greece, they have defined the European problem as simply a public sector debt problem. In 2011, no one continent on its own can reignite the world economy. Only 40 percent of manufactured goods and even less investment may come from Europe and America, but they still consume 55 percent of the world’s goods and services. So today there is a precarious balance between producers and consumers."[/I]

This is an interesting column that raises many significant questions for how these challenges get "fixed" for both the short and long term economics. Some will say Brown left the UK bankrupt, making his opinion worth less. Maybe, however, he has learned some lessons from those problems. [B][I]Many good questions and issues to consider. [/I][/B]

Full stories at:
[url]http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/oct/22/eu-bailout-funds-asia-gulf?newsfeed=true[/url]
[url]http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2011/10/21/how-europe-can-stave-off-a-crisis/[/url]

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio[/FONT][/SIZE][/COLOR]

Recently back from a June 7-19 Solstice cruise from [B]Barcelona that had stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik[/B]. Enjoyed great weather and a wonderful trip. Dozens of wonderful visuals with key highlights, tips, comments, etc., on these postings. We are now at 45,032 views for this live/blog re-cap on our first sailing with Celebrity and much on wonderful Barcelona. Check these postings and added info at:
[B][url]www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474[/url][/B]

[TLCOhio]

[quote name='dundalkspur']Hi Terry, Great info from you - try this link it is brilliant !
[url]http://livingingreece.gr/strikes/[/url]
We are going on the 6th Nov to meet up with the QEV on the 8th so scanning those dates.As this is a changeover date Cunard must be getting nervous as there are loads of flights connected with this date![/QUOTE]

[COLOR="Blue"][SIZE="3"][FONT="Georgia"] In addition to the posts by nich_arch, this above-noted weblink from another of these CC Boards has an amazing amount of details on what has been happening and that is upcoming for Athens, etc. It can be very helpful to those planning visits there. I am sharing with others on this posting.

From Reuters newswire in the past half hour, they have this headline: [B][I]"Sarkozy yields on ECB crisis role, pressure on Italy"[/I][/B] with these highlights: [I]"European Union leaders made some progress toward a strategy to fight the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis on Sunday, nearing agreement on bank recapitalization and on how to leverage their rescue fund to try to stop bond market contagion. But final decisions were deferred until a second summit on Wednesday and sharp differences remain over the size of losses private holders of Greek government bonds will have to accept. French President Nicolas Sarkozy backed down in the face of implacable German opposition to his desire to use unlimited European Central Bank funds to fight the crisis. Instead, the euro zone may turn to emerging economies such as China and Brazil for help in underpinning its sickly bond market."[/I]

Also, from an AP writer, the Christian Science Monitor has this morning this headline on this very good analysis: [B][I]"Europe debt crisis: Some fixes will take years"[/I][/B] with these highlights: [I]"Fixes for the deeper problems that plague the monetary union will remain on their to-do calendars for years to come. The turmoil over some eurozone governments' excessive debt has exposed flaws in Europe's 13-year-old monetary union that are more complicated than Greece's admittedly disastrous decisions to spend and borrow too much during good times."[/I]

This week, things are more focused on the bigger Europe economic challenges and not as much about Greece, directly. Maybe, short-term, a little good news for Athens, etc., visitors on cruises.

Full stories at:
[url]http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/24/us-eurozone-idUSTRE79I0IC20111024[/url]
[url]http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Latest-News-Wires/2011/1024/Europe-debt-crisis-Some-fixes-will-take-years[/url]

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio[/FONT][/SIZE][/COLOR]

Recently back from a June 7-19 Solstice cruise from [B]Barcelona that had stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik[/B]. Enjoyed great weather and a wonderful trip. Dozens of wonderful visuals with key highlights, tips, comments, etc., on these postings. We are now at 45,261 views for this live/blog re-cap on our first sailing with Celebrity and much on wonderful Barcelona. Check these postings and added info at:
[B][url]www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474[/url][/B]

[TLCOhio]

[COLOR="Blue"][SIZE="3"][FONT="Georgia"] Some sort of "settlement" or "deal" has been worked out this week for Europe and its finances. How it works, longer-term, remains to be seen. In the past couple of days, the euro value has soared up to near $1.42. In early October, the euro had dropped to $1.33. That's mixed news for travelers planning November cruise to Greece and Europe.

From tomorrow's New York Times, they have this headline: [B][I]"Greeks Direct Anger at Germany and European Union"[/I][/B] with these highlights: [I]"Beyond populist talk, which ranges from euro-skepticism to anti-German demagoguery, experts say the concessions that Greece has made in exchange for the foreign aid to stave off default — including allowing European Union officials to monitor Greek state affairs closely — are unprecedented for an member nation, making Greece a bellwether for the future of European integration. The European superpowers Germany and France are trying to translate the new deal, to accept a loss on part of Greece’s debt, into changing European Union treaties to give the union greater oversight of national budgets and to create tougher, more easily enforceable rules for countries that go astray. After years of pay cuts and tax hikes that have pushed the Greek middle class to the breaking point, Greeks are not inclined to feel grateful. They increasingly feel they have become a de facto European Union protectorate. Some argue that greater oversight is needed for Greece to push through the structural changes it promised in exchange for foreign aid. They say some loss of Greek sovereignty is a small price to pay considering that the new debt deal and eventual recapitalization of some banks comes at the expense of taxpayers from other European countries."[/I]

This is an interesting analysis article/summary for the current attitudes in Greece following a challenging week. It concludes with this comment: [I]"As the anger at Friday’s National Day celebrations made clear, they feel Greece is effectively a puppet government for its foreign lenders."[/I]

Full story at:
[url]http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/29/world/europe/greeks-direct-anger-at-germany-and-european-union.html?hp[/url]

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio[/FONT][/SIZE][/COLOR]

Recently back from a June 7-19 Solstice cruise from [B]Barcelona that had stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik[/B]. Enjoyed great weather and a wonderful trip. Dozens of wonderful visuals with key highlights, tips, comments, etc., on these postings. We are now at 46,355 views for this live/blog re-cap on our first sailing with Celebrity and much on wonderful Barcelona. Check these postings and added info at:
[B][url]www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474[/url][/B]

[4774Papa]

"This is an interesting analysis article/summary for the current attitudes in Greece following a challenging week. It concludes with this comment: "As the anger at Friday’s National Day celebrations made clear, they feel Greece is effectively a puppet government for its foreign lenders."

This is a valid concern, but if a government undertakes to come into the Eurozone and depend on bailouts from Northern Europe, it has to stop the bleeding.

[MANURULES]

[url]http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/if-i-were-from-greece/5765434.html?p5765434=2[/url]

[TLCOhio]

[COLOR="Blue"][SIZE="3"][FONT="Georgia"] From the New York Times mid-afternoon today, they have an AP wire story with this headline: [B][I]"Greece to Hold Referendum on New Debt Deal"[/I][/B] with these highlights: [I]"Greece's Prime Minister George Papandreou on Monday said his troubled country will hold a referendum on a new European debt deal reached last week — gambling on a hard-bargained agreement that took months to hammer out. Papandreou appeared to take many lawmakers by surprise with the announcement. He gave no date or other details on the proposed referendum, which would be the first in Greece since 1974, when the monarchy was abolished by a landslide vote held months after the collapse of a military dictatorship. The new deal aims to seek 50 percent losses for private holders of Greek bonds and provide the troubled eurozone member with $140 billion in additional rescue loans. Papandreou's government has seen its majority reduced to just three seats in parliament and its approval ratings plummet amid harsh austerity measures that are likely to send the country into a fourth year of recession in 2012."[/I]

This could put back in play more uncertainty over Greece's finances and might mean more "unrest" and strikes in November and/or next spring and summer. Nobody saw this new "twist" coming last week.

Full story at:
[url]http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2011/10/31/world/europe/AP-EU-Greece-Financial-Crisis.html?_r=1&hp[/url]

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio[/FONT][/SIZE][/COLOR]

Recently back from a June 7-19 Solstice cruise from [B]Barcelona that had stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik[/B]. Enjoyed great weather and a wonderful trip. Dozens of wonderful visuals with key highlights, tips, comments, etc., on these postings. We are now at 47,023 views for this live/blog re-cap on our first sailing with Celebrity and much on wonderful Barcelona. Check these postings and added info at:
[B][url]www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474[/url][/B]

[TLCOhio]

[COLOR="Blue"][SIZE="3"][FONT="Georgia"] From the Wall Street Journal online this evening, they have this headline: [B][I]"Greek Vote Threatens Bailout"[/I][/B]. Their writers in Athens call it [I]"a high-stakes gamble that could undermine the international effort to preserve the euro."[/I]

Its meaning?: [I]"A 'yes' vote in the referendum could deflate the massive street protests and strikes that threaten to paralyze Greece as it tries to enact a brutal austerity program to earn rescue loans from the euro zone and the International Monetary Fund. A 'no' vote, however, could bring down the government and cut off international funding for Greece, leaving the country facing a financial meltdown."[/I]

[I][B]The story indicates that the vote will likely happen in January.[/B][/I] Also noted in the story are these key future aspects: [I]"Some Greek government officials believe a defeat in the referendum could propel their country out of the euro zone. Many European policy makers fear that a messy Greek default could spark a financial-market panic that would particularly affect Italy, a major European economy that's already struggling to retain investors' trust. With the fate of the deal in the lap of Greek voters, the euro crisis is likely to dominate this week's summit of the Group of 20 leading global economies in Cannes, France. For months, the U.S. government has been pressing Europe to resolve the two-year-old Greek debt crisis, which is undermining investor confidence in ever-growing swaths of the euro currency zone. The lingering uncertainty, in turn, has hurt confidence in global financial markets, and the looming referendum will only accentuate that. The announcement in Athens roiled financial markets late Monday, [B]pushing the euro down 2.1% against the dollar to $1.3859, the European currency's biggest one-day slide in six months.[/B] A binding voter rejection of Europe's terms for a bailout would leave euro-zone leaders such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy with a bitter choice. Either they let Greece default on its €355 billion of public debt, risking panic throughout Europe's government-bond markets and banking sectors; or they cave in and offer Greece more generous bailout terms."[/I]

Full story at:
[url]http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204394804577010091283798750.html[/url]

THANKS! Terry in Ohio[/FONT][/SIZE][/COLOR]

[nick_arch]

The whole thing will finally lead Italy to the IMF and France either to IMF or some kind of memorandum.

This thing is out of the scale of Greek economy already and this is what everybody was saying from the start.

Regarding the referendum. . .i 'd say it's a maneuver to earn time, basically till March 2012. This is when the next payment of Greece debt to international lendors is due; and that's why we see all this delay from July 2011.

Time needed to prepare a referendum will be used by the Greek government to deflate public anger and focus it to some other direction. In the same time, an "uncertainty" window will be created to push Italy and France deeper in the "problem".

Greece is used just as a jump - point for a larger scale project, which is re-arrangement of sovereign debt in Europe under new rules and structures. Don't expect any solution before 2013 - 2014.

What's the least predictable thing though, is what the Greeks will vote.

If you allow me a forecast, i 'd dare say that the outcome may be none "yes" nor "no" with less of 40% of the voting body going to vote. So, basically the referendum may self prove as a maneuver to earn time and "explain" why absolutely no solution will be given till March 2012 in any of the problems Europe is facing.

We are definitely going to an even larger haircut of Greek debt that will take place sometime April 2012, along with problems in Italy, France, Portugal and probably Belgium.

-------------

What is the possible effect to travellers by that whole "debt drama"?

It keeps being the same: Strikes and possible reaction in affected countries, now Italy included. A referendum though is getting things to a "no strikes" direction, so i see less imact on travellers.

All in all situation is same for travellers ( = only real problem is possible strikes. At least, regarding Greece, large magnitude strikes that can affect things take place 5 - 6 times a year for 24-48 hrs. It's not a permanent situation but more of a rare one. I have no opinion or data regarding Italy ).

Nevertheless, things are getting more fluid for Europeans and their everyday lives.

[nick_arch]

wow. . .things are changing pretty fast.

Government is *probably* collapsing in the next hours. Another Senator resigned, so government is now at 152/300 votes in the parliament.

There is a possiblity government collapses in the next hours.

Again. . . no intereference with tourism industry or travel - related problems. Regarding strikes, this is definitely pushing to a no - strikes period.

[nick_arch]

There is a possibility Greece's PM announced the questionable referendum, as a subtle way to cause reactions like this, and to finally cause a resign.

[rodan]

What is happening in Greece and should it follow in Italy and Spain will rock all of Europe and the US for sure. A world wide recession will be next and all will suffer. The whole idea of a European Union was a bad idea from the start and impratical. They moved much too fast on something that should have taken decades if at all. The divergence in economies and culture built up over centuries cannot be hammered out to fit like a glove in so short a time. The politicians let their egos get in the way thinking that a United Europe will easily compete with the US, China and the other large Global players with no real effect to its members. For the tourism industry it could be a deadly blow to them and a bonanza to whoever can afford to travel until this is finished which could take years. Just look at our mess and we are a united country. What chance does the Union have?

[nick_arch]

Although i, more or less agree with what may follow, at least partially, i really don't think this whole mess is caused by European Union's effort to proceed in a common future.

Effort to unite Europe started right after WW2, in order to avoid a WW3. Simple.
If it finally collapses or proceeds to a federal union, or even if it partially collapses, this is something the future will tell.

Nevertheless, it is naive to believe that a fiscal crisis or a recession are self ignited; or ignited by political will.

Recession ( and growth ) are mainly driven by what the markets want.
Situation we are all living is a mix of greed ( read: collapse of Lehman Bros ) and clumisiness ( read: European Union ).

Other than that, it is naive to believe global economy can collapse because of the fiscal crisis. It may collapse but not because of the whole crisis "drama".
If the globe collapses will probably collapse because we have been reckless and greedy all together, preferring to have a bigger LCD in our living room rather than a bucket of lentils in our drawers and someone to produce it.

[TLCOhio]

[COLOR="Blue"][SIZE="3"][FONT="Georgia"] Appreciate the added info and insights from Nick_Arch and rodan. It's a super wild situation in Greece and Europe. Like the twists and turns of a "soap opera". Sadly!

From the Reuters newswire this morning, they have this headline: [B][I]"Greek government struggles after bailout bombshell"[/I][/B] with these highlights: [I]"Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou faced calls from within his own party to step down on Tuesday. A leading lawmaker from Papandreou's socialist party quit while two others said Greece needed a government of national unity followed by snap elections, which the opposition also demanded. The leaders of France and Germany scrambled to limit the damage to the wider euro zone, and European politicians expressed incredulity at an announcement that caught everyone by surprise. Business executives in Greece expressed despair at how the country was being run and markets speculated on whether Italy will be the next euro zone country to slide into a debt crisis. French President Nicolas Sarkozy will call German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Tuesday, his office said, while emotions ran high in Greece itself about the referendum idea. 'They must be crazy... this is no way to run a country,' said the senior executive of one of Greece's biggest firms, speaking on condition of anonymity."[/I]

The below Bloomberg/Business Week story is headlined [I][B]"Papandreou Grip on Power Weakens as Lawmakers Rebel on Vote"[/B][/I] with more details listed below. The story notes: [I]"Stocks fell, the euro tumbled and Italian bonds plunged on concern that the referendum, which blindsided Greek lawmakers as well as European policy makers, will push Greece into default if the bailout is rejected."[/I]

This morning, the euro dropped down to $1.36 as the shock hit on these new developments in Greece made news.

Full stories at:
[url]http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/01/greece-referendum-idUSL5E7M108720111101[/url]
[url]http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-01/papandreou-grip-on-power-weakens-as-lawmakers-rebel-on-vote.html[/url]

THANKS! Terry in Ohio[/FONT][/SIZE][/COLOR]

Recently back from a June 7-19 Solstice cruise from [B]Barcelona that had stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik[/B]. Enjoyed great weather and a wonderful trip. Dozens of wonderful visuals with key highlights, tips, comments, etc., on these postings. We are now at 47,120 views for this live/blog re-cap on our first sailing with Celebrity and much on wonderful Barcelona. Check these postings and added info at:
[B][url]www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474[/url][/B]

[Fblack]

In a few stories I just read it seems that many in the Greek Government want to see a public vote fail on the bailout so they have an excuse to dump the Euro. Once out of the Euro Zone they can resort to printing their own currency again. This still would not solve their underlying economic problems.

[MANURULES]

[quote name='Fblack']In a few stories I just read it seems that many in the Greek Government want to see a public vote fail on the bailout so they have an excuse to dump the Euro. .[/quote]


No ,you are way off on this one.
This was just like the analyst quoted on usatoday said, "one of the worst bonehead moves of all time".

Right now, I am willing to bet serious money on the referendum never allowed to take place ,instead national elections for a new government seem to be a certainty now.
The leading opposition party leader ( that's leading in the polls) has stated he will do what ever necessary for the agreement to go through and the referendum will never happen.
I will be very surprised if the government survives the next 24 hours one way or another especially since its coming out that the prime minister acted on his own with out even consulting or informing anyone even in his own government.

On second thought I will keep my money,you just never know when you are dealing with boneheads.



[url]http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_26090_01/11/2011_412733[/url]

[Fblack]

[quote name='MANURULES']No ,you are way off on this one.
This was just like the analyst quoted on usatoday said, "one of the worst bonehead moves of all time".

Right now, I am willing to bet serious money on the referendum never allowed to take place ,instead national elections for a new government seem to be a certainty now.
The leading opposition party leader ( that's leading in the polls) has stated he will do what ever necessary for the agreement to go through and the referendum will never happen.
I will be very surprised if the government survives the next 24 hours one way or another especially since its coming out that the prime minister acted on his own with out even consulting or informing anyone even in his own government.

On second thought I will keep my money,you just never know when you are dealing with boneheads.



[url]http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_26090_01/11/2011_412733[/url][/QUOTE]


You may be right. But George Papandreou has more lives than a cat.

[TLCOhio]

[quote name='Fblack']In a few stories I just read it seems that many in the Greek Government want to see a public vote fail on the bailout so they have an excuse to dump the Euro. Once out of the Euro Zone they can resort to printing their own currency again. This still would not solve their underlying economic problems.[/QUOTE]

[COLOR="Blue"][SIZE="3"][FONT="Georgia"] This story in Greece has taken more unusual "twists" today. Does anyone knows what will happen next? From Telegraph newspaper in London late today, they have this headline: [B][I]"Greek military leadership changes spark opposition outcry"[/I][/B]. We sometimes forget that Greece was under control of the military rulers 1967-74. The 1967 coup followed thirty years of national divisions between the left and the right that is traced to the time of the resistance against Axis occupation of Greece during World War II. Greece had battles against Communist taking-over of the country, the Truman Doctrine was invoked, Cyprus became a battle zone, junta members were sentenced to prison, etc. Turkey and Greece had lots of bitter battles in the late the 1800's and early 1900's. This not the first time for divisions in Greece and conflicts with other countries over who controlled what in and around this historic nation.

Here are some of the highlights in this story: [I]"Panos Beglitis, Defence Minister, a close confidante of Mr Papandreou, summoned the chiefs of the army, navy and air-force and announced that they were being replaced by other senior officers. Neither the minister nor any government spokesman offered an explanation for the sudden, sweeping changes. 'Under no circumstances will these changes be accepted, at a time when the government is collapsing and has not even secured a vote of confidence,' said an official announcement by the opposition conservative New Democracy party." The left wing SYRIZA party said that the government’s decision [B]'gives the impression that it wants to create a highly politicized armed forces that it can control at a time of political crisis'[/B]. It called on the President of the Republic not to proceed with the formal ratification of the defence minister’s decree and to wait until new general elections take place. Similar statements were made by all smaller political parties from the extreme right to the hard-line communists."[/I]

The New York Times in the last 30 minutes headlines this as their lead story: [B][I]"Government in Greece Teeters After Move on Referendum"[/I][/B]. These key details are reviewed by their reporters: [I]"Several lawmakers in the governing Socialist Party rejected Mr. Papandreou’s surprise plan for a popular referendum on the Greek bailout, raising the possibility that he will not survive a no-confidence vote scheduled for Friday that depends on his holding together a razor-thin parliamentary majority. Mr. Papandreou was holding an emergency cabinet meeting Tuesday evening to save his government, but the opposition and some members of his own party were calling for new elections immediately."[/I]

From the Daily Mail in London, they have this headline within the past half hour: [B][I]"Greece in meltdown: Government on edge of collapse amid fears of coup as Europe teeters on the brink of financial disaster"[/I][/B]. The story notes: [I]" ‘It’s all over. The government is about to collapse,’ said one Greek official. Greece’s former deputy finance minister Petros Doukas agreed: ‘The **** has hit the fan.’ Economists warned that if Greece rejects the debt deal hammered out only last week, which would entail years of austerity, the entire future of the single currency is in peril. They predicted that Italy, Spain and Portugal are likely to be plunged into a profound economic crisis because of their failure to get to grips with their towering debts."[/I]

Full stories at:
[url]http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8863728/Greek-military-leadership-changes-spark-opposition-outcry.html[/url]
[url]http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/02/world/europe/markets-tumble-as-greece-plans-referendum-on-latest-europe-aid-deal.html?hp[/url]
[url]http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2055872/Greece-referendum-Crisis-deepens-Greek-National-Defence-chiefs-sacked.html[/url]
[url]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15539642[/url]

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio[/FONT][/SIZE][/COLOR]

Recently back from a June 7-19 Solstice cruise from [B]Barcelona that had stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik[/B]. Enjoyed great weather and a wonderful trip. Dozens of wonderful visuals with key highlights, tips, comments, etc., on these postings. We are now at 47,120 views for this live/blog re-cap on our first sailing with Celebrity and much on wonderful Barcelona. Check these postings and added info at:
[B][url]www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474[/url][/B]

[nick_arch]

So, finally. . ., we reached the inevitable. We are probably reaching the profound also.

After Greeks being bullied for more than two years, after statements being made by European officials that [I]"Greeks are lazy"[/I], [I]"Greeks are crooks"[/I], [I]"Greeks should tighten their belt"[/I], we reached the dead end wall.

In 48 hours or a little more, we will know if Greece will proceed in the most questionable referendum, that will probably affect the whole continent.

Questions on the referendum are supposed to be three:
i ) Should Greece sign the extended memorandum that trims the debt by 50%, with equal amount being borrowed again?

ii) Should Greece remain in the European Union?

iii) Should Greece remain in the Eurozone?

Finally we reached the inevitable. We reached the point where people would start thinking why Greeks are going on violent strikes for more than two years now, getting over the fact they are indeed going. We reached the point where we will have to think why suicid*al rate has gone up by 450% in a country where no such "tradition" exists. We reached the point where someone has to ask: "What do you do do, when everybody says to you: 'this is your only choice and you have to take it or leave it'?".

Or we will finally reached the point where government will collapse and the trimming deal will proceed.

Regardless what anybody believes, we all have to agree that the whole Greece thing has all the spicy things a good John Le Carre book would have: economic scandals, good reading, money business, off shore banks, CDS, a bit of violence in, and a really good plot.

Last 24 hours we saw a sweeping change in military pyramid, most probably in order to avoid what everybody thinks could happen, we saw lawmakers resigning and we saw a lot of international mess, mainly in the markets. "Greeks are irresponsible for not getting what we give them" most French newspapers say. "This a matter of internal politics" most German newspapers say. Europe is clearly divided and this will get to be more obvious next day.

Except if. . . [I]If's[/I] in the road are just too many. . .PM called in G20 summit to discuss how more austerity measures will be implemented. . .oh how ironic. . . luck of a huge public debt will be discussed in the equivalent of Holywood in the continent, among perhaps some champagne and juicy fondue.

So, is this a script play? Well, more or less yes, except what we always tend to forget that somewhere, among all the plot, you have people, real people. People that are desperate. Simple as that.

Perhaps it's time now to start talking not about the debt but about these people. We may have to start thinking outside the box. And next time someone says to you [I]"Greeks are dancing in the beach all day long, without paying taxes, they are a threat to the stability of our system"[/I], you should probably answer back [I]"Greeks are working the most hours in their continent and have the highest tax rates. And they are desperate now. Does anybody care about this, beyond the numbers?"[/I].

And despair is never a good advisor.

---------------

Someone has also to wonder: "But how on Earth these people may say [I]no[/I] to such a great deal? They are trimming their debt 50% and now they say '[I]maybe[/I]'?".

Well. . . someone has to see if this is a great deal. Is it?

First of all, not 50% of the debt is getting trimmed. Effectively, 28% of the debt is being trimmed. All the debt that is owed to IMF, European Central Bank and other governments is [B]not[/B] being trimmed, nor it can be.
From the start of this whole drama, debt is being converted. Gradually, in more than two years, most of the debt of European banks has been converthed to Greek banks debt and Greek pension funds debt. This is what being trimmed.

So, Greek debt is not being trimmed by anyone but only by themselves. EU gives them the option for domestic banks and domestic pension funds to go bankrupt and actually obliterate. No debt is being trimmed by intenrational banks except a minimal 20bn debt that actually remains in international lenders.

Moreover, the sum of the trimmed amount is re-borrowed in the same agreement, to "support" local banks and pension funds, under agreement that banks will be sold in two years and pensions will drop another 50% - 70%. On top of this Greece is borrowed another 30bn more and obliged to sell [B]all [/B]its public property , including all resources assets.

Think out of the box. Most newspapers say all the side data but noone speaks about the profound.

Greece is ending after 3 years of austerity with:

i ) 140 bn more debt
ii ) all domestic banks obliterated
iii) all pension funds bankrupt
iv) all public property and all resources assets sold. All.

So, first of all, let's get over the profound: This is not a trimming agreement. It's not a debt haircut. It is definitely a debt conversion, where European authorities borrow money to a country, in exchange of public assets.

Simple.

I wonder if anyone in USA would agree with everything American sold, i mean everything, even the right to exploit oil, even the right to get granite from the Rockies, in exchange of a public debt conversion.

Would you?

[rummysmom]

[url]http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/video/greeces-impact-us-14862030[/url]

watch this!