Delay in low mileage FF seats becoming available?

[erdoran]

First of all, yes, I have just signed up for expertflyer.com.

 

I'm working on airfare for a December 24-31 cruise (2011) and trying to figure out whether or not to use freq flyer. We'd be flying PHL to either FLL or MIA, and want non-stops. The two airlines that are our best options are US Air and American, and I have frequent flyer mileage for each. I want to fly out of PHL 6 pm or later 12/23 but would be willing to take a super early flight 12/24 if necessary.

 

I did this last year-booked FF seats with AA the day they first were available on the website and got 12.5k mile seats in both directions. This year seats for the outbound have been available for almost a week, but all they are showing is the most expensive FF seats, no low mileage in either coach or first have shown up.

 

US Air has blacked out 12/23; 12/24 only has high mileage for any reasonable flights for us.

 

Is there a possibility of low mileage seats "dropping" in the next few days, or am I smarter to just book tix for $179/pp each way (plus taxes, etc) on US Air once the full itinerary comes available for booking? I'm concerned if I wait then the tix will be even more expensive.

 

Advice, please!

[greatam]

The days you want to fly are PREMIUM flights (everyone going home for Xmas-LOTS of people looking for low mileage seats). The chances in that time frame of the mileage requirements being reduced are slim. Particularly as this year, Xmas is on the weekend.

 

PHL to MIA/FLL is VERY poor use of miles. Figure $.02 per mile-even at the lowest mileage rate, you are still "paying" about $500 per ticket.

 

Just purchase your tickets, accumulate more mileage. AND aren't you are looking for business/first tickets to Europe from another thread. Use the mileage you have to UPGRADE a cheapo coach seat (usually only available with AA-you can upgrade ALMOST any fare class).

[Gardyloo]

I'm sure AA will release some seats as time passes; right now the seat maps for PHL-MIA show that basically all the flights are completely empty in both first and economy classes.

 

I also think there's little chance of seats disappearing any time soon, or of the price shooting up. It's just way too early for people to be booking their Christmas flights. Personally I'd refrain from giving the airlines my money this early; surely you have better uses for it for a few months than sticking it in AA's or USAir's checking account.

[erdoran]

Use the mileage you have to UPGRADE a cheapo coach seat (usually only available with AA-you can upgrade ALMOST any fare class).

 

Can you tell me more or direct me to a URL? So far I've only flown AA on FF tix, are you saying I can buy a dirt cheap discounted RT PHL-FCO ticket in coach and upgrade with mileage? Is that at time of purchase or just 24 hrs before flight? Thanks, and sorry for my inexperience, the days I had a TWA gold card for flying 35k+ miles/year are long gone!

[outerspaceguy]

I'm working on airfare for a December 24-31 cruise (2011) and trying to figure out whether or not to use freq flyer. We'd be flying PHL to either FLL or MIA, and want non-stops. The two airlines that are our best options are US Air and American, and I have frequent flyer mileage for each. I want to fly out of PHL 6 pm or later 12/23 but would be willing to take a super early flight 12/24 if necessary.

 

I think you are crazy to expect FF tickets on that itin to be available at the low rate... and then putting in a "we" (instead of an "I") means you need even more tickets... Doesn't mean it won't happen.

 

I'd buy the ticket if you are concerned about the fares. A good rule of thumb is to want to get $.02 per mile... so use a 25k mile award for a > $500 fare, if possible. Anything less than a $250 r/t fare is a complete waste of 25k miles, in my opinion.

[erdoran]

I think you are crazy to expect FF tickets on that itin to be available at the low rate... and then putting in a "we" (instead of an "I") means you need even more tickets... Doesn't mean it won't happen.

 

I'd buy the ticket if you are concerned about the fares. A good rule of thumb is to want to get $.02 per mile... so use a 25k mile award for a > $500 fare, if possible. Anything less than a $250 r/t fare is a complete waste of 25k miles, in my opinion.

Well.....I would think I was crazy too EXCEPT I was able to do exactly that last year! I booked the outbound the first day that date was available for booking--had my choice of 12/24 or 12/25, chose 12/25 but could have done Fri 12/24 also for 12.5k miles each, and return flight 1/1 also 12.5k miles, booked the day the date was available for booking. AA appeared to make at least 2 12.5k mile seats available on each of the flights as soon as they showed up. That doesn't seem to be the case this year, and that's what I was asking about. I do appreciate the advice about buy rather than use mileage however, I've been considering miles worth $.01/mi which I guess is too low.

[greatam]

Can you tell me more or direct me to a URL? So far I've only flown AA on FF tix, are you saying I can buy a dirt cheap discounted RT PHL-FCO ticket in coach and upgrade with mileage? Is that at time of purchase or just 24 hrs before flight? Thanks, and sorry for my inexperience, the days I had a TWA gold card for flying 35k+ miles/year are long gone!

 

http://www.aa.com/i18n/disclaimers/one-way-upgrade-chart.jsp

 

Yes, that is what I am saying and what I do most of the time. Miles + co pay of $350 each way. Still a darn site cheaper than buying even most restricted business class fares, particularly to FCO.

 

You also want to look at some of the higher class fares (I know, it takes a lot of study and research but you have EF which should help you a lot). There are the Y-UP and K-up fares (which are essentially a restricted business fare but booked in coach) which automatically give you a "free" upgrade BUT those upgrades are subject to availability.

 

Flying AA, I would NOT try to get an upgrade all the way from PHL to FCO. The problem could be the PHL-JFK sector. And you most likely WILL NOT get an upgrade on the nonstop out of JFK. You may even want to look at just the JFK to FCO (with a stop in LHR, Zurich or Frankfort) and figure out how to get to JFK on your own. That is what you purchased EF for-to see all the possibilities. Maybe even availability out of ORD or DFW, connecting from PHL.

 

It will take some research, flexibility and a willing spirit to ferret out the best deal via upgrade, miles or cash. But it IS doable.

 

You may also want to look at some of the Middle Eastern airlines-Etihad, Gulf Air and Kuwait Air often have very cheap business class flights out of JFK/ORD to the Middle East in the summer. Each airline has different stop points in the Middle East and then you can fly to FCO. Many, many ways to get to Europe from the Middle East.

 

Kuwait Air has been consistently running $2000 RT flights from JFK to Kuwait City in first class once it gets hot. Now, Kuwait Air is NOT BA, Cathay, Singapore, Emirates or Etihad. But they have improved CONSIDERABLY in the last couple of years, as their national pride is on the line, competing with other Middle Eastern Airlines. NO booze on Kuwait Air.

 

Etihad (one of my favorites) also has flights from JFK/ORD through Munich to Abu Dhabi, so you may be able to spot a bargain there.

 

Good luck. You have your work cut out for you.

[outerspaceguy]

Well.....I would think I was crazy too EXCEPT I was able to do exactly that last year!

 

The calendar is different this year.

 

 

I booked the outbound the first day that date was available for booking--had my choice of 12/24 or 12/25, chose 12/25 but could have done Fri 12/24 also for 12.5k miles each, and return flight 1/1 also 12.5k miles,

 

12/25 and 1/1 are easy dates to get, since few people like to travel on teh holiday itself.

 

12/20-12/23 are harder. 12/24 AM is harder.

 

I do appreciate the advice about buy rather than use mileage however, I've been considering miles worth $.01/mi which I guess is too low.

 

That's basically break-even. Not a great deal to me.

 

P.S.: if you are going on a cruise, I'd strongly recommend Southwest... those baggage charges will hurt ya!

[erdoran]

http://www.aa.com/i18n/disclaimers/one-way-upgrade-chart.jsp

 

Yes, that is what I am saying and what I do most of the time. Miles + co pay of $350 each way. Still a darn site cheaper than buying even most restricted business class fares, particularly to FCO.

 

You also want to look at some of the higher class fares (I know, it takes a lot of study and research but you have EF which should help you a lot). There are the Y-UP and K-up fares (which are essentially a restricted business fare but booked in coach) which automatically give you a "free" upgrade BUT those upgrades are subject to availability.

 

Flying AA, I would NOT try to get an upgrade all the way from PHL to FCO. The problem could be the PHL-JFK sector. And you most likely WILL NOT get an upgrade on the nonstop out of JFK. You may even want to look at just the JFK to FCO (with a stop in LHR, Zurich or Frankfort) and figure out how to get to JFK on your own. That is what you purchased EF for-to see all the possibilities. Maybe even availability out of ORD or DFW, connecting from PHL.

 

It will take some research, flexibility and a willing spirit to ferret out the best deal via upgrade, miles or cash. But it IS doable.

 

You may also want to look at some of the Middle Eastern airlines-Etihad, Gulf Air and Kuwait Air often have very cheap business class flights out of JFK/ORD to the Middle East in the summer. Each airline has different stop points in the Middle East and then you can fly to FCO. Many, many ways to get to Europe from the Middle East.

 

Kuwait Air has been consistently running $2000 RT flights from JFK to Kuwait City in first class once it gets hot. Now, Kuwait Air is NOT BA, Cathay, Singapore, Emirates or Etihad. But they have improved CONSIDERABLY in the last couple of years, as their national pride is on the line, competing with other Middle Eastern Airlines. NO booze on Kuwait Air.

 

Etihad (one of my favorites) also has flights from JFK/ORD through Munich to Abu Dhabi, so you may be able to spot a bargain there.

 

Good luck. You have your work cut out for you.

Wow--gee, thanks! And one more question....can I do the upgrade right when I buy the ticket so I know that I have the business/first seat locked in?