RCL stock down over 7%

[bajathree]

It's a bleak picture not only on Wall St but for the global markets....get ready for a re-run of 2008/2009 pricing......I think we are going to see some pretty steep after final price drops once again. I see nothing but price increases for spring break 2011 and have to wonder:rolleyes:

[johneeo]

I see nothing but price increases for spring break 2011 and have to wonder:rolleyes:

 

Not if the global melt down continues.

[marci22]

It's a bleak picture not only on Wall St but for the global markets....get ready for a re-run of 2008/2009 pricing......I think we are going to see some pretty steep after final price drops once again. I see nothing but price increases for spring break 2011 and have to wonder:rolleyes:

 

Maybe they will do more upgrading when people start cancelling the expensive suites...

[bajathree]

Not if the global melt down continues.

 

I agree......I have watched both Freedom and Allure April 1 increase balcony pricing by about $200/pp in the last 2 weeks....they are going in the opposite direction of the economy:rolleyes:....GOOD LUCK

[marci22]

I wish I didn't need airfare for so many cruises. I would always book last minute.

[Sequim88]

As dollar strengthens and if that continues I wonder about the sustainability of European itineraries. Is there enough demand from dollar spending cruisers versus Euro area residents? At very least it will be very tricky for RCI setting schedules for 2012 summer season and beyond in Med. and Baltic. Asia might not look as good either if China inflation eventually affects rate against dollar.

 

Potential is for more ships to be moved back to Caribbean, West Coast and Alaska routes - creating a local glut of cabins but better chances of filling them easier. Economies of scale on the larger ships really favors absorption of fixed operating overhead with higher passenger load. Hence potential for some significant discounts if trend continues. On downside that would also mean U.S. economy getting hammered as well.

[truck72003]

Not if the global melt down continues.

 

 

I predict the markets will go UP! And down. And up. And down. And upanddownandupanddownandupanddownandupanddown. But ultimately up.

[RareBird]

US port cruise prices are spiking. I'm paying more than before to cruise out of NYC / NJ.

[KittyCat1Million]

I predict the markets will go UP! And down. And up. And down. And upanddownandupanddownandupanddownandupanddown. But ultimately up.

 

Me too. I bought in on some stocks today. The roller coaster gambling hall they refer to as Wall Street has actually become somewhat predictable. Down dramatically 3-4 days with big selloffs, then the predictable few days up then down, etc. I never buy stocks I am not willing to hold long term. But some of these fire sale prices, I couldn't resist. There are a lot of great companies that are selling at unbelievable lows.

 

The last time I bought RCL was at about $6 a share a couple years ago. Sold it when it tripled. Not interested in buying RCL at current price.

[njmomof2]

I agree......I have watched both Freedom and Allure April 1 increase balcony pricing by about $200/pp in the last 2 weeks....they are going in the opposite direction of the economy:rolleyes:....GOOD LUCK

 

We actually have 2 rooms booked on Freedom for April 1 2012 for our spring break. Moved it from Explorer 8 night in a quad. I have not noticed our category having gone up since I moved the booking but some may very well have increased.

 

Given the fact that I need airfare, it's almost impossible to wait until after final to make a booking (and I have 2 kids so we need connecting rooms...a first for us). We also have some changes coming that may require us to shift the booking yet again.

[bajathree]

We actually have 2 rooms booked on Freedom for April 1 2012 for our spring break. Moved it from Explorer 8 night in a quad. I have not noticed our category having gone up since I moved the booking but some may very well have increased.

 

Given the fact that I need airfare, it's almost impossible to wait until after final to make a booking (and I have 2 kids so we need connecting rooms...a first for us). We also have some changes coming that may require us to shift the booking yet again.

 

All the prices increased 2X in the last 2 weeks....except for interiors.....this week always has steep drops after final......it's flooded with TA's holding group space and when they release all the unsold space prices drop.....but usually not till after final....I have watched this happen for the past 3 years.

[bajathree]

We actually have 2 rooms booked on Freedom for April 1 2012 for our spring break. Moved it from Explorer 8 night in a quad. I have not noticed our category having gone up since I moved the booking but some may very well have increased.

 

Given the fact that I need airfare, it's almost impossible to wait until after final to make a booking (and I have 2 kids so we need connecting rooms...a first for us). We also have some changes coming that may require us to shift the booking yet again.

 

The CL's are pricing that in;)

[marci22]

...this week always has steep drops after final......it's flooded with TA's holding group space and when they release all the unsold space prices drop.....but usually not till after final....I have watched this happen for the past 3 years.

 

Same here. In early June, they did have some cheap prices on Ex for the 8 night Easter cruise so I can't see them dropping those much more after final. If you booked receently though, you might be in for some hurt after final!

 

JS for that particular cruise were $979pp in early June (and a lot disappeared from inventory quickly), GS were around $1300? OS $1579? something like that. Really good prices I thought (especially with a C&A discount). Can't see them dropping a JS to $600pp after final. Watch I just jinxed myself.

[Maya57]

US port cruise prices are spiking. I'm paying more than before to cruise out of NYC / NJ.

 

There are several reasoins why the Northeast is getting higher rates and greater demand

 

The public is sick of airlines with their extra fees for everything. Not only the fees but treating you like cattle. As a result more and more are sailing from ports within driving range i.e., New York, Bayonne NJ and even Baltimore.

 

Driving to the port alows more flexibility in what you can bring back. No carry-on items like alcohol that is taken away. No packing of items that could be broken.

 

The Northeast has a larger population to draw from and has little problems filling ships.

 

Bermuda, which most 7-night cruises go to can demand a higher per diem it always has.

[bajathree]

Same here. In early June, they did have some cheap prices on Ex for the 8 night Easter cruise so I can't see them dropping those much more after final. If you booked receently though, you might be in for some hurt after final!

 

JS for that particular cruise were $979pp in early June (and a lot disappeared from inventory quickly), GS were around $1300? OS $1579? something like that. Really good prices I thought (especially with a C&A discount). Can't see them dropping a JS to $600pp after final. Watch I just jinxed myself.

 

Thats because how many people want to sail Ex out of NJ in April.....if they don't discount it steeply they ain't going to sell it. Unlike Ex selling out last minute cabins out on Mia, FLL and PC is MUCH easier than last minute NJ when it's still cold.

[Debde]

this week always has steep drops after final......it's flooded with TA's holding group space and when they release all the unsold space prices drop.....but usually not till after final....I have watched this happen for the past 3 years.

 

This would be great if I see a major price drop after final on the NYE cruise I am working on. Always book early due to airfare so this is a first at an attempt of a last minute possible booking but would be a bonus if I see a good price drop too!!! Bering it is a NYE cruise-I was wondering if they are prone to price drops after final?

[bajathree]

There are several reasoins why the Northeast is getting higher rates and greater demand

 

The public is sick of airlines with their extra fees for everything. Not only the fees but treating you like cattle. As a result more and more are sailing from ports within driving range i.e., New York, Bayonne NJ and even Baltimore.

 

Driving to the port alows more flexibility in what you can bring back. No carry-on items like alcohol that is taken away. No packing of items that could be broken.

 

The Northeast has a larger population to draw from and has little problems filling ships.

Bermuda, which most 7-night cruises go to can demand a higher per diem it always has.

 

Enchantment out of Baltimore has been struggling......they have TA rates available for that sailing almost always....and usually a couple months ahead of time....which when it comes to TA rates is like light years ahead of time....usually they don't come out till days or maybe just a week or 2 before sailing....but not explorer.

[marci22]

Thats because how many people want to sail Ex out of NJ in April.....if they don't discount it steeply they ain't going to sell it. Unlike Ex selling out last minute cabins out on Mia, FLL and PC is MUCH easier than last minute NJ when it's still cold.

 

I was agreeing with you that Easter break usually has lots of price drops after final. I got a good price one year on IOS during spring break. That was when they still gave out adjustments after final: I got ~$2300 in obc that year.

[njmomof2]

All the prices increased 2X in the last 2 weeks....except for interiors.....this week always has steep drops after final......it's flooded with TA's holding group space and when they release all the unsold space prices drop.....but usually not till after final....I have watched this happen for the past 3 years.

 

Unsold group space has to be released well in advance of final payment. Unless the TA wants to put deposits on the remaining open group space they have to hold it until final (and I guess some will expecting that they can sell it since it's a holiday week), it has to be released before that date (perhaps closer to 6 weeks before).

[marci22]

Unsold group space has to be released well in advance of final payment. Unless the TA wants to put deposits on the remaining open group space they have to hold it until final (and I guess some will expecting that they can sell it since it's a holiday week), it has to be released before that date (perhaps closer to 6 weeks before).

 

But you won't see the drops until after final.

 

I have seen them continue to raise prices on D2, for ex, when there are 42 D2 cabins left. Yeah, way to sell cabins. But a lot of people will not be able to hold out because they are afraid they won't get a cabin for vacation. Then after final, when people can't get adjustments, lots of discounting by the cruiselines.

[bajathree]

Unsold group space has to be released well in advance of final payment. Unless the TA wants to put deposits on the remaining open group space they have to hold it until final (and I guess some will expecting that they can sell it since it's a holiday week), it has to be released before that date (perhaps closer to 6 weeks before).

 

But you won't see the drops until after final.

 

I have seen them continue to raise prices on D2, for ex, when there are 42 D2 cabins left. Yeah, way to sell cabins. But a lot of people will not be able to hold out because they are afraid they won't get a cabin for vacation. Then after final, when people can't get adjustments, lots of discounting by the cruiselines.

 

Most of the time group space only has to be released about 30 days prior to final....and there are always exceptions....I have seen large blocks of group space come available well after final.

Like Marci said....they aren't going to drop those prices till after final....the CL's are in the business to make money...why are they going to give it back just weeks before final is due and they have you money locked in penalty. A sailing really has to be selling poorly for them to start dropping pricing during a busy holiday time pre-final.

 

I was agreeing with you that Easter break usually has lots of price drops after final. I got a good price one year on IOS during spring break. That was when they still gave out adjustments after final: I got ~$2300 in obc that year.

 

Yes....IOS with that 8 night itinerary they used to do would be one that comes to mind.....that one always had steep drops after final during spring break.....I remember being booked on that sailing in a D2 priced at $1249....2 weeks after final they dropped to around $900....and yep....those were the days you din't have to worry as they would just credit you back.

[Ocean Boy]

Maybe they will do more upgrading when people start cancelling the expensive suites...

 

There may also be some major buys on lower catagory cabins as people holding those reservations may rethink spending that money and cancel before final payment.

[bajathree]

There may also be some major buys on lower catagory cabins as people holding those reservations may rethink spending that money and cancel before final payment.

 

I have noticed a trend lately where they are raising prices on ocean-view and balconies but not on interiors....a least not the lower category interiors....there has been quite a spread as of late on some sailings between interiors and balconies. I guess they want to keep those low introductory prices popping up when people are doing cruise searching.

[bajathree]

This would be great if I see a major price drop after final on the NYE cruise I am working on. Always book early due to airfare so this is a first at an attempt of a last minute possible booking but would be a bonus if I see a good price drop too!!! Bering it is a NYE cruise-I was wondering if they are prone to price drops after final?

 

They absolutely are....NYE sailings are either you get in at the beginning or wait them out once the pricing starts to jump.....I am booked on Oasis for NYE and got in at the very beginning and have watched pricing over double for that sailing.

[Debde]

They absolutely are....NYE sailings are either you get in at the beginning or wait them out once the pricing starts to jump.

 

Thank you!!! good news!!