TD #12-Katrina forms in Bahamas

[vicocala]

Watches and warnings are expected to be posted in a few minutes for the Central Bahamas and Northwestern Bahamas. :mad:

 

Just in time for my cruise, bummer. But, I knew the job was dangerous when I took it. :cool:

[vicocala]

Tropical Depression TWELVE Public Advisory

 

Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Strike Probs Maps/Chrts Archive 000WTNT32 KNHC 232042TCPAT2BULLETINTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTEDNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL5 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005CORRECTED WARNING SECTION...TWELFTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS......TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED ATROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THISINCLUDES CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...SAN SALVADOR...NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... THE ABACOS... ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OFSOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLEINLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUEDBY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WASESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST OR ABOUT175 MILES... 280 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FORTHE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS INDICATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATAAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHERGUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERPORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THENORTHERN COAST OF CUBA.STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTEDNEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...23.2 N... 75.5 W. MOVEMENTTOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINEDWINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONALHURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXTCOMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART

[Sage]

I guess it is no surprise that we do have a storm out there in August, but I was rather liking the quiet period and could have gladly ended the season with no more storms.

 

Vicocala, I hope that it doesn't interfer with cruise plans and will just be a bit of a bumpy ride for a bit.

[M.S JAZO]

Ok, damn I leave tomorrow, ok, whats the track, its not like heading up the east coast of Florida is it, it looks more to head along the south of Florida, right? It seems like that.

[vicocala]

Yep, here is the next few days expected track. Good luck on your cruise. I think I will be ok, but I never trust a track, it is always subject to change:

 

[vicocala]

Tropical Depression Twelve Advisory Number 2

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Pm Edt Tue Aug 23 2005

 

...tropical Depression Gradually Organizing And Moving Slowly

Northwestward...

...tropical Storm Watch Issued For Portions Of The Florida Keys And

Florida East Coast...

 

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For The Central And

Northwestern Bahamas... Including Cat Island... The Exumas... Long

Island... Rum Cay... San Salvador... The Northwestern Bahamas...

The Abacos... Andros Island... The Berry Islands... Bimini...

Eleuthera... Grand Bahama Island... And New Providence. A Tropical

Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are

Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.

 

At 11 Pm Edt... 0300z... A Tropical Storm Watch Has Been Issued For

Portions Of The East Coast Of Florida And The Florida Keys From

West Of The Seven Mile Bridge Northward To Vero Beach. A Tropical

Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are

Possible Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

 

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

 

At 11 Pm Edt...0300z...the Center Of Tropical Depression Twelve Was

Estimated Near Latitude 23.4 North... Longitude 76.0 West Or About

140 Miles... 230 Km... Southeast Of Nassau.

 

The Depression Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 7 Mph... 11

Km/hr... And This General Motion Is Expected To Continue During The

Next 24 Hours.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph... 55 Km/hr... With Higher

Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours...

And The Depression Could Become A Tropical Storm On Wednesday.

 

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1007 Mb...29.74 Inches.

 

The Depression Is Expected To Produce Total Rainfall Accumulations

Of 4 To 8 Inches Over The Central And Northwestern Bahamas... With

Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 10 Inches Possible. Total Rainfall

Accumulations Of 3 To 5 Inches Are Expected Along The North Coast

Of Cuba.

 

Storm Surge Flooding Of 3 To 5 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels...

Along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves... Can Be Expected

Near The Center In Areas Of Onshore Winds In The Bahamas.

 

Repeating The 11 Pm Edt Position...23.4 N... 76.0 W. Movement

Toward...northwest Near 7 Mph. Maximum Sustained

Winds... 35 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1007 Mb.

 

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane

Center At 2 Am Edt Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 5 Am

Edt.

[vicocala]

Tropical Depression Twelve Intermediate Advisory Number 2a

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

2 Am Edt Wed Aug 24 2005

 

...center Of Tropical Depression Twelve Near Great Exuma Island In

The Bahamas....

 

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For The Central And

Northwestern Bahamas... Including Cat Island... The Exumas... Long

Island... Rum Cay... San Salvador... The Northwestern Bahamas...

The Abacos... Andros Island... The Berry Islands... Bimini...

Eleuthera... Grand Bahama Island... And New Providence. A Tropical

Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are

Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.

 

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect For Portions Of The East

Coast Of Florida And The Florida Keys From West Of The Seven Mile

Bridge Northward To Vero Beach. A Tropical Storm Watch Means That

Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch Area...

Generally Within 36 Hours.

 

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

 

At 2 Am Edt...0600z...the Center Of Tropical Depression Twelve Was

Estimated Near Latitude 23.6 North... Longitude 76.0 West Or About

135 Miles... 220 Km... Southeast Of Nassau In The Bahamas.

 

The Depression Is Moving Erratically Toward The Northwest Near 5

Mph... 8 Km/hr... And This General Motion Is Expected To Continue

During The Next 24 Hours.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph... 55 Km/hr... With Higher

Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours...

And The Depression Could Become A Tropical Storm On Wednesday. An

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Is Currently Enroute To

Investigate The Depression.

 

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1007 Mb...29.74 Inches.

 

The Depression Is Expected To Produce Total Rainfall Accumulations

Of 4 To 8 Inches Over The Central And Northwestern Bahamas... With

Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 10 Inches Possible. Total Rainfall

Accumulations Of 3 To 5 Inches Are Expected Along The North Coast

Of Cuba.

 

Storm Surge Flooding Of 3 To 5 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels...

Along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves... Can Be Expected

Near The Center In Areas Of Onshore Winds In The Bahamas.

 

Repeating The 2 Am Edt Position...23.6 N... 76.0 W. Movement

Toward...northwest Near 5 Mph. Maximum Sustained

Winds... 35 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1007 Mb.

 

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National

Hurricane Center At 5 Am Edt.

 

Forecaster Beven

[Sage]

Vicocala,

 

Thanks for the update of TD 12. Do you know if this is a large storm? I keep looking to see how far out the wind fields extend from the center, but I can't find anything yet. Is it too early for that information? I'm like you, those tracks can be iffy.

[vicocala]

As of 8:00 AM the storm has reached tropical storm force Sage, the windfields are included here for your reference, I normally don't post them as most folks around the country probably don't have that much interest in them and to conserve space but you can find them in the forecast section of the advisories:

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005

0900Z WED AUG 24 2005

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND

NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING CAT ISLAND... THE EXUMAS... LONG

ISLAND... RUM CAY... SAN SALVADOR... THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

THE ABACOS... ANDROS ISLAND... THE BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...

ELEUTHERA... GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A TROPICAL

STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST

COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE

BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO VERO BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...

GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER

TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 76.4W AT 24/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

 

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

 

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 76.4W AT 24/0900Z

AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 76.1W

 

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.7N 77.1W

MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 0NW.

 

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 25.5N 78.0W

MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 30NW.

 

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.9N 78.9W

MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.

34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

 

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.1N 80.0W

MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.

34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

 

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 26.5N 82.0W...INLAND

MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

 

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 27.0N 84.0W...OVER WATER

MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

 

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 28.0N 86.5W

MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

 

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 76.4W

 

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

 

FORECASTER BEVEN

[KAJOKG]

Ok, damn I leave tomorrow, ok, whats the track, its not like heading up the east coast of Florida is it, it looks more to head along the south of Florida, right? It seems like that.

I live on the East Coast and we are now under a tropical storm watch from Vero Beach to the Keys. Although they are saying it will make landfall around Miami, areas north and south can expect the rains. We are about 65 miles north of Ft. Lauderdale and we are expecting up to 6 inches. It does look as if this will remain a tropical storm, but heavy rains are expected. Will start tomorrow into Friday. Up to 6 inches of rain with street flooding and some winds. If you have an early flight it might not be a problem....later flights stand a good chance of delays. From what I can tell, the storm will be off the west coast on Saturday and the east coast will be clear, so ships should be sailing with no problem. That's current, and of course anything can happen. Next update is expected at 11 a.m.

[vicocala]

Katy,

 

 

Best wishes with the storm I hope you come out of it safely. Right now the track looks headed toward Louisiana. The gulf waters are very warm and the storm is expected to reintensify in the Gulf.

 

Not sure of the dates that ships leave New Orleans but it could have an effect on them.

[vicocala]

Again, since this was generated the storm has been upgrade to tropical storm status:

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

8 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

 

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE

CENTRAL BAHAMAS...NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND

NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL

STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE

NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST

COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE

BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO VERO BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...

GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER

TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS

ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST OR ABOUT

70 MILES... 115 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 250 MILES...

400 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

 

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR

8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER THROUGH

THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS...MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. RECENT

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THE DEPRESSION IS JUST

BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A

TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

 

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

 

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS

OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... WITH

ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

 

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...

ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED

NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

 

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 76.6 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

AT 11 AM EDT.

[KAJOKG]

Katy,

 

 

Best wishes with the storm I hope you come out of it safely. Right now the track looks headed toward Louisiana. The gulf waters are very warm and the storm is expected to reintensify in the Gulf.

 

Not sure of the dates that ships leave New Orleans but it could have an effect on them.

Hmmm. Never thought of the ships in NO. From the track I saw, it might well effect them. Thanks for the good wishes. I think we'll be okay. Will just have the heavy rain and street flooding. But it is deja vu, for sure. Frances and Jeanne made landfall right over us last year. I guess you could say it was not a real good time!!! Also, thanks for the weather updates. It is appreciated.

[spcl4cs_gal]

This system must have formed from all of the rain and thunderstorms we have been getting this week in the Caribbean. Today in St Thomas we arrived in the middle of a thunderstorm but it has since rolled northward and everything is nice and humid here now. What would St Thomas be without humidity anyway? :(

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Katrina Advisory Number 4

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Am Edt Wed Aug 24 2005

 

...depression Strengthens Into Tropical Storm Katrina Over The

Central Bahamas...

...hurricane Watch And Tropical Storm Warning Issued For Florida...

 

At 11 Am Edt...1500z...a Tropical Storm Warning And A Hurricane

Watch Have Been Issued For The Southeast Florida Coast From Vero

Beach Southward To Florida City. This Replaces The Tropical Storm

Watch. A Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane Conditions Are

Possible Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For The Central And

Northwest Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical

Storm Conditions Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The

Next 24 Hours.

 

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect For The Middle And Upper

Florida Keys From West Of The Seven Mile Bridge Northward To South

Of Florida City. A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm

Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36

Hours.

 

A Watch Or Warning May Be Required For Lake Okeechobee Later Today.

A Hurricane Warning May Be Required For Portions Of The Northwest

Bahamas Later Today.

 

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

 

At 11 Am Edt...1500z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Katrina Was

Located Near Latitude 24.7 North... Longitude 76.7 West Or About 50

Miles... 80 Km... East-southeast Of Nassau And About 230 Miles...

375 Km...east-southeast Of Southeast Coast Of Florida.

 

Katrina Is Moving Toward The North-northwest Near 8 Mph

...13 Km/hr. A Gradual Turn Toward The Northwest At A Slightly

Slower Forward Speed Is Expected To Occur Later Today. This Motion

Should Bring The Center Through The Central And Northwest Bahamas

Later Today And Tonight.

 

Earlier Reports From An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft

Indicated Maximum Sustained Winds Had Increased To Near 40 Mph...

65 Km/hr...with Higher Gusts. Additional Strengthening Is Forecast

During The Next 24 Hours.

 

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70 Miles

...110 Km...mainly East Of The Center.

 

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1006 Mb...29.71 Inches.

 

Due To Its Slow Forward Speed...katrina Is Expected To Produce A

Significant Heavy Rainfall Event Over The Central And Northwest

Bahamas...and South Florida... With Total Rainfall Accumulations Of

6 To 12 Inches And Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 15 To 20 Inches

Possible.

 

Storm Surge Flooding Of 3 To 5 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels...

Along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves... Can Be Expected

Near The Center In Areas Of Onshore Winds In The Bahamas.

 

Repeating The 11 Am Edt Position...24.7 N... 76.7 W. Movement

Toward...north-northwest Near 8 Mph. Maximum Sustained

Winds... 40 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1006 Mb.

 

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National

Hurricane Center At 2 Pm Edt Followed By The Next Complete

Advisory At 5 Pm Edt.

 

Forecaster Stewart

[RevNeal]

Looks like HMC -- Little San Salvador -- is getting drenched with a whole lot of rain. I trust everything is ok there.

[vicocala]

I sure hope so, everyone says it is so beautiful, I would hate to see it damaged. Especially since I will be there in October.

[Sage]

Vicocala,

 

Thanks again for the update. It looks like the storm is getting its act together.

 

KAJOKA,

 

Stay safe and let us know how you fare. It sure sounds like you are in for some rain.

[Sage]

Vicocala,

 

Thanks for the update. It looks as though Katrina is getting her act together. I saw some of the models that have her doing a U turn, and I must say that I don't like that.

 

KAJOKA,

 

Please stay safe, and please let us know how you fare.

 

I just saw that this double posted, with a slight difference. Sorry, as the board gives on a blank DONE screen. When will the board work right again?

[vicocala]

Bulletin

Tropical Storm Katrina Intermediate Advisory Number 4a

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

2 Pm Edt Wed Aug 24 2005

 

...tropical Storm Katrina Strengthening Over The Central Bahamas...

...heavy Rainfall Threat For The Bahamas Tonight And Thursday...

 

A Tropical Storm Warning And A Hurricane Watch Remain In Effect For

The Southeast Florida Coast From Vero Beach Southward To Florida

City. This Replaces The Tropical Storm Watch. A Hurricane Watch

Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch

Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For The Central And

Northwest Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical

Storm Conditions Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The

Next 24 Hours.

 

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect For The Middle And Upper

Florida Keys From West Of The Seven Mile Bridge Northward To South

Of Florida City. A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm

Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36

Hours.

 

A Watch Or Warning May Be Required For Lake Okeechobee Later Today.

A Hurricane Warning May Be Required For Portions Of The Northwest

Bahamas Later Today.

 

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

 

At 2 Pm Edt...1800z...reports From An Air Force Reserve Unit

Reconnaissance Aircraft Indicate The Center Of Tropical Storm

Katrina Was Reforming Near Latitude 25.2 North... Longitude 77.0

West Or About 30 Miles... 50 Km... East-northeast Of Nassau And

About 200 Miles...320 Km...east-southeast Of The Southeast Coast

Of Florida.

 

Katrina Is Moving Toward The North-northwest Near 8 Mph

...13 Km/hr. A Turn Toward The Northwest Or West-northwest At A

Slightly Slower Forward Speed Is Expected To Occur Tonight Or Early

Thursday. This Motion Will Bring The Center Through The Central

Bahamas Today And The Northwest Bahamas Tonight And Thursday.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Estimated Near 45 Mph...75 Km/hr...with

Higher Gusts. Additional Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next

24 Hours.

 

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70 Miles

...110 Km...mainly East Of The Center.

 

The Minimum Central Pressure Recently Observed By Reconnaissance

Aircraft Was 1003 Mb...29.62 Inches.

 

Due To Its Slow Forward Speed...katrina Is Expected To Produce A

Significant Heavy Rainfall Event Over The Central And Northwest

Bahamas...and South Florida... With Total Rainfall Accumulations Of

6 To 12 Inches And Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 15 To 20 Inches

Possible.

 

Storm Surge Flooding Of 3 To 5 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels...

Along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves... Can Be Expected

Near The Center In Areas Of Onshore Winds In The Bahamas.

 

Repeating The 2 Pm Edt Position...25.2 N... 77.0 W. Movement

Toward...north-northwest Near 8 Mph. Maximum Sustained

Winds... 45 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1003 Mb.

 

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center

At 5 Pm Edt.

 

Forecaster Stewart

[vicocala]

Sage,

 

Keep an eye out they have it curving back over Florida now instead of Nawlins so do what you can to keep her away while I am gone.

[Oceanwench]

Katy,

 

DH just e-mailed to tell me one forecaster said it might make Cat 1 before landfall.

There are so many tracks for this one ... no one is sure. We are certainly in the cone of possibility.

While we need the rain, we don't need THAT much! :eek:

[bruceh4]

Here is a US Navy website which shows where the Navy thinks the storm is going:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat_products.html

When you get to the page click on Tropical Cyclones then click on the storm you want on the next screen in the left hand colummn. You can then click on either picture or tracking map to get a larger version. This site has good tracking maps and very good satellite pictures of the storm.

[Oceanwench]

Thanks for the link! Looks like the Navy expects a Miami landfall.

Not Dolphins fans???

 

We are having a little wind and rain here, and people keep asking, "Are they feeder bands?"

Last year's storms have unnerved some folks -- and with good reason.

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Katrina Forecast/advisory Number 5

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al122005

2100z Wed Aug 24 2005

 

At 5 Pm Edt...2100z...a Tropical Storm Warning And A Hurricane

Watch Have Been Issued For Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning

And A Hurricane Watch Are Now In Effect For The Southeast Florida

Coast From Vero Beach Southward To Florida City...including Lake

Okeechobee. A Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane Conditions Are

Possible Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours. A

Hurricane Warning Will Likely Be Issued For Portions Of The

Hurricane Watch Area Later This Evening.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For The Central And

Northwest Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical

Storm Conditions Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The

Next 24 Hours. A Hurricane Warning May Be Required For Portions Of

The Northwest Bahamas Later Tonight.

 

At 5 Pm Edt...a Tropical Storm Watch Has Been Issued For The

East-central Florida Coast From North Of Vero Beach Northward To

Titusville...including All Of Merritt Island. A Tropical Storm

Watch Is Now In Effect For The Middle And Upper Florida Keys From

West Of The Seven Mile Bridge Northward To South Of Florida

City...and From North Of Vero Beach Northward To Titusville...

Including All Of Merritt Island. A Tropical Storm Watch Means That

Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch Area...

Generally Within 36 Hours.

 

Tropical Storm Center Located Near 25.6n 77.2w At 24/2100z

Position Accurate Within 30 Nm

 

Present Movement Toward The Northwest Or 325 Degrees At 8 Kt