TD #12-Katrina forms in Bahamas

SForman · August 24, 2005

Oceanwench,

It looks like we're going to get a little damp up here. I hope it doesn't get to the point that we need to put the shutters up.

vicocala · August 24, 2005

Tropical Storm Katrina Advisory Number 5

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

5 Pm Edt Wed Aug 24 2005

...katrina Getting Better Organized Over The Central Bahamas...

...new Watches And Warnings Issued For Florida...

At 5 Pm Edt...2100z...a Tropical Storm Warning And A Hurricane

Watch Have Been Issued For Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning

And A Hurricane Watch Are Now In Effect For The Southeast Florida

Coast From Vero Beach Southward To Florida City...including Lake

Okeechobee. A Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane Conditions Are

Possible Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours. A

Hurricane Warning Will Likely Be Issued For Portions Of The

Hurricane Watch Area Later This Evening.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For The Central And

Northwest Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical

Storm Conditions Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The

Next 24 Hours. A Hurricane Warning May Be Required For Portions Of

The Northwest Bahamas Later Tonight.

At 5 Pm Edt...a Tropical Storm Watch Has Been Issued For The

East-central Florida Coast From North Of Vero Beach Northward To

Titusville...including All Of Merritt Island. A Tropical Storm

Watch Is Now In Effect For The Middle And Upper Florida Keys From

West Of The Seven Mile Bridge Northward To South Of Florida

City...and From North Of Vero Beach Northward To Titusville...

Including All Of Merritt Island. A Tropical Storm Watch Means That

Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch Area...

Generally Within 36 Hours.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

At 5 Pm Edt...2100z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Katrina Was

Estimated Near Latitude 25.6 North... Longitude 77.2 West Or About

45 Miles... 70 Km... North-northeast Of Nassau And About 185

Miles... 300 Km...east Of The Southeast Coast Of Florida.

Katrina Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 9 Mph...15 Km/hr. A

Turn Toward The West-northwest Or West At A Slower Forward Speed Is

Expected To Occur Tonight Or Early Thursday. This Motion Will Bring

The Center Through The Northwest Bahamas Tonight And Thursday...and

Into The Florida Straits Thursday Night.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 45 Mph... 75 Km/hr...with Higher

Gusts. Additional Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next

24 Hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70 Miles

...110 Km From The Center.

The Minimum Central Pressure Recently Observed By An Air Force

Reserve Unit Reconnaissance Aircraft Was 1002 Mb...29.59 Inches.

Due To Its Slow Forward Speed...katrina Is Expected To Produce A

Significant Heavy Rainfall Event Over The Central And Northwest

Bahamas...and South Florida... With Total Rainfall Accumulations Of

6 To 12 Inches And Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 15 To 20 Inches

Possible.

Storm Surge Flooding Of 3 To 5 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels...

Along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves... Can Be Expected

Near The Center In Areas Of Onshore Winds In The Bahamas.

Repeating The 5 Pm Edt Position...25.6 N... 77.2 W. Movement

Toward...northwest Near 9 Mph. Maximum Sustained

Winds... 45 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1002 Mb.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National

Hurricane Center At 8 Pm Edt Followed By The Next

Complete Advisory At 11 Pm Edt.

vicocala · August 24, 2005

Cruise Critic news including ports of call news:

http://cruisecritic.com/news/news.cfm?ID=1329

KAJOKG · August 24, 2005

Katy,

DH just e-mailed to tell me one forecaster said it might make Cat 1 before landfall.

There are so many tracks for this one ... no one is sure. We are certainly in the cone of possibility.

While we need the rain, we don't need THAT much! :eek:

They are saying that it will be a Cat 1 by landfall. Steve Weigle on NBC says a new system has begun on the north side of the storm which may pull it to the north.....which could mean you and me!!! :eek: Whatever happens, we are in for lots and lots of rain. I only heard one thing about storm surge and that was yesterday, but they do talk of flooding. All indications, though, are that will be a minimum hurricane, which bodes well for us. Except we will be without electricity, right?

Thanks for the good wishes folks! I think we'll be okay.

KAJOKG · August 24, 2005

OOOPS! Just checked and there are now tropical storm watches all the way up to Titusville. So, it just may turn north. :mad:

Grumpy1 · August 25, 2005

Another site that has a lot of tracking information is http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/tracking.asp#katrinaThey have the spaghetti models, NOAA maps, wind forcast maps, etc.

vicocala · August 25, 2005

Tropical Storm Katrina Advisory Number 6

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Pm Edt Wed Aug 24 2005

...katrina Heading Westward For South Florida...hurricane Warnings

In Effect...

At 11 Pm Edt...0300z...a Hurricane Warning Has Been Issued For The

Southeast Florida Coast From Vero Beach Southward To Florida

City...including Lake Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning Means That

Hurricane Conditions Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within

The Next 24 Hours. Preparations To Protect Life And Property

Should Be Rushed To Completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For The Northwest

Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect For The East-central

Florida Coast From North Of Vero Beach Northward To Titusville

...including All Of Merritt Island And For The Middle And Upper

Florida Keys From West Of The Seven Mile Bridge Northward To South

Of Florida City. A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm

Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36

Hours.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

At 11 Pm Edt...0300z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Katrina Was

Estimated By The Miami Radar Near Latitude 26.0 North...longitude

78.0 West Or About 60 Miles... 95 Km...southeast Of Freeport Grand

Bahama Island And About 135 Miles... 220 Km...east Of The Southeast

Coast Of Florida.

Katrina Is Now Moving Toward The West Near 8 Mph ...13 Km/hr...and

This Motion Is Expected To Continue During The Next 24 Hours. This

Motion Would Bring The Center Of Katrina Into The Florida Straits

On Thursday Night.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 50 Mph...85 Km/hr...with Higher

Gusts. Katrina Is Expected To Become A Hurricane On Thursday Before

Reaching The Southeast Florida East Coast. Another Reconnaissance

Plane Is Expected To Reach Katrina In A Few Hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70 Miles...110 Km

From The Center. Settlement Point On Gran Bahama Island Just

Reported A Wind Gust Of 43 Mph...69 Km/hr.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1001 Mb...29.56 Inches.

Due To Its Slow Forward Speed...katrina Is Expected To Produce A

Significant Heavy Rainfall Event Over The Northwest Bahamas...and

South Florida... With Total Rainfall Accumulations Of 6 To 12

Inches And Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 15 To 20 Inches Possible.

Storm Surge Flooding Of 3 To 5 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels...

Along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves... Can Be Expected

Near The Center In Areas Of Onshore Winds In The Bahamas.

Repeating The 11 Pm Edt Position...26.0 N... 78.0 W. Movement

Toward...west Near 8 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds... 50 Mph.

Minimum Central Pressure...1001 Mb.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane

Center At 2 Am Edt Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 5 Am

Edt.

Forecaster Avila

vicocala · August 25, 2005

Bulletin

Tropical Storm Katrina Intermediate Advisory Number 6a

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

2 Am Edt Thu Aug 25 2005

...katrina Continuing Westward Toward South Florida...hurricane

Warnings In Effect...

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For The Southeast Florida

Coast From Vero Beach Southward To Florida City...including Lake

Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions Are

Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.

Preparations To Protect Life And Property Should Be Rushed To

Completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For The Northwest

Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect For The East-central

Florida Coast From North Of Vero Beach Northward To Titusville

...including All Of Merritt Island And For The Middle And Upper

Florida Keys From West Of The Seven Mile Bridge Northward To South

Of Florida City. A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm

Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36

Hours.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

At 2 Am Edt...0600z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Katrina Was

Estimated By The Miami Radar Near Latitude 26.1 North...longitude

78.4 West Or About 35 Miles... 55 Km...south-southeast Of Freeport

Grand Bahama Island And About 110 Miles... 175 Km...east Of The

Southeast Coast Of Florida.

Katrina Is Moving Toward The West Near 8 Mph ...13 Km/hr...and

This General Motion Is Expected To Continue During The Next 24

Hours. This Motion Would Bring The Center Of Katrina Through The

Remainder Of The Northwestern Bahamas Tonight And Into The Florida

Straits Thursday And Thursday Night.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 50 Mph...85 Km/hr...with Higher

Gusts. Katrina Is Expected To Become A Hurricane On Thursday Before

Reaching The Southeast Florida East Coast. The Reconnaissance

Aircraft That Was Enroute To Katrina Has Had To Abort Due To

Computer Problems.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70 Miles...110 Km

From The Center.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1000 Mb...29.53 Inches.

Due To Its Slow Forward Speed...katrina Is Expected To Produce A

Significant Heavy Rainfall Event Over The Northwest Bahamas...and

South Florida... With Total Rainfall Accumulations Of 6 To 12

Inches And Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 15 To 20 Inches Possible.

Storm Surge Flooding Of 3 To 5 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels...

Along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...can Be Expected

Near The Center In Areas Of Onshore Winds In The Bahamas.

Repeating The 2 Am Edt Position...26.1 N... 78.4 W. Movement

Toward...west Near 8 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds... 50 Mph.

Minimum Central Pressure...1000 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National

Hurricane Center At 5 Am Edt.

Forecaster Beven

vicocala · August 25, 2005

Bulletin

Tropical Storm Katrina Intermediate Advisory Number 7a

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

8 Am Edt Thu Aug 25 2005

...katrina Slowly Getting Better Organized As It Moves Westward

Toward Southeastern Florida...

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For The Southeast Florida

Coast From Vero Beach Southward To Florida City...including Lake

Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions

Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.

Preparations To Protect Life And Property Should Be Rushed To

Completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For The Northwest

Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect For The East-central

Florida Coast From North Of Vero Beach Northward To Titusville

...including All Of Merritt Island...and For The Middle And Upper

Florida Keys From The West End Of The Seven Mile Bridge Northward To

South Of Florida City. A Tropical Storm Watch Is Also In Effect For

The Florida West Coast From Florida City To Englewood...including

Florida Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm

Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch Area...generally Within

6 Hours.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

At 8 Am Edt...1200z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Katrina Was

Located Near Latitude 26.2 North...longitude 79.0 West Or About

30 Miles... 45 Km...south-southwest Of Freeport Grand Bahama

Island And About 70 Miles... 115 Km...east Of Ft. Lauderdale

Florida.

Katrina Is Moving Toward The West Near 8 Mph...13 Km/hr...and This

Motion Is Expected To Continue With Some Decrease In Forward Speed

During The Next 24 Hour. This Motion Should Bring The Center Into

The Florida Straits Today...and Near Or Over The Southeastern

Florida Coast Later Tonight Or Friday Morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 50 Mph... 85 Km/hr...with Higher

Gusts. Additional Strengthening Is Possible Today And Tonight...

And Katrina Could Reach Category One Hurricane Strength Before The

Center Reaches The Southeastern Coast Of Florida.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70 Miles

...110 Km From The Center. An Automated Observing Station At

Settlement Point On Grand Bahama Island Recently Reported Sustained

Winds Of 43 Mph With A Gust To 50 Mph...and Freeport On Grand

Bahama Island Also Reported Sustained Winds Of 43 Mph.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 999 Mb...29.50 Inches.

Storm Surge Flooding Of 4 To 6 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels...

Along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...can Be Expected

Near And To The North Of Where The Center Makes Landfall In Florida.

Storm Surge Flooding Of 3 To 5 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels...

Along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...can Be Expected

Near The Center In Areas Of Onshore Winds In The Bahamas.

Due To Its Slow Forward Speed...katrina Is Expected To Produce A

Significant Heavy Rainfall Event Over The Northwest Bahamas...and

South Florida... With Total Rainfall Accumulations Of 6 To 10

Inches And Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 15 Inches Possible.

Repeating The 8 Am Edt Position...26.2 N... 79.0 W. Movement

Toward...west Near 8 Mph. Maximum Sustained

Winds... 50 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...999 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center

At 11 Am Edt.

Forecaster Stewart

JaniceB · August 25, 2005

Looks like the cruise lines have already decided that this storm is not going away and will affect cruise travel this weekend. If someone is planning on driving to a terminal make sure you have plenty of gas, it might be very hard to fill up in South Florida.

vicocala · August 25, 2005

Tropical Storm Katrina Discussion Number 8

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Am Edt Thu Aug 25 2005

Katrina Has Become Better Organized Based On Doppler Radar Data And

Satellite Imagery. A Few Isolated Doppler Velocities As High As 68

Kt At 9000-10000 Ft Have Occasionally Been Observed...but The

Average Doppler Velocities Over A 1-nmi Stretch Have Been Around 55

Kt...which Equates To Roughly 50-kt Surface Winds. This Is

Consistent With A Blend Of Satellite Intensity Estimates Of 45 Kt

From Tafb And Afwa...and 55 Kt From Sab. A Noaa P-3 Reconnaissance

Aircraft With Sfmr Capability Is Currently Investigating Katrina...

And A Recent Report Indicates The Pressure Is Now Lower At 990 Mb.

However... This Pressure Drop Has Not Yet Translated Into A

Corresponding Increase In Winds.

The Initial Motion Estimate Is 270/5. 06z And 12z Upper-air Data

Indicate The Subtropical Ridge To The North Of Katrina Has

Continued To Shift Slowly Eastward Along 32n Latitude. This Has

Created A Deep-layer Easterly Steering Current...albeit A Weak One.

The Nhc Model Guidance Is In Fairly Good Agreement On Katrina

Moving Generally Westward Across The Southern Florida Peninsula For

The Next 48 Hours Or So. After That...however...the Models Continue

To Diverge Significantly On When And Where The Turn To The North

Toward The Florida Panhandle Or Northwest Florida Is Expected To

Occur. The Ukmet Is The Easternmost And Fastest Model And Brings

Katrina Across Northeast Florida...whereas The Gfdl Is The

Westernmost Model And Takes The Cyclone Across The Western Florida

Panhandle. The Rest Of The Models Are Evenly Distributed Between

These Solutions. The Official Forecast Track Is Similar To The

Previous Track And Is Close To The Nhc Model Consensus After 48

Hours. The Gfdl Model Has Been Consistently Forecasting A

Southwestward Motion Around The Southern End Of Florida For The

Past 24 Hours. While This Track Is Certainly Possible To Some

Degree...my Current Thinking Is That The Gfdl Is Taking Katrina Too

Far South Through The Florida Keys As A Major Hurricane.

The Aforementioned Upper-air Data Indicate Mid-level Dry Air Has

Gradually Been Moving Southward Across The Florida Peninsula And

Katrina Has Been Moving Along The Northern Edge Of A Sharp Moisture

Gradient. This Has Resulted In Occasional Intrusions Of Dry Air

Into The Inner Core And Has Caused The Convection To Weaken.

However...over The Past Few Hours...radar Data From Melbourne And

Miami Indicate Numerous Small Bands Of Convection Are Developing In

The Large Dry Slot To The North...and A Banding Eye Feature Has

Been Trying To Develop. Given The Slow Forward Speed Over The Very

Warm Gulfstream And The Favorable Outflow Pattern...katrina Could

Still Possibly Reach Category One Hurricane Strength Prior To

Landfall. Katrina Will Weaken As It Moves Over South Florida...and

Then Re-strengthening Is Expected Once It Moves Over The Warm Gulf

Of Mexico Where The Vertical Shear Is Forecast To Be Quite Low. It

Should Be Noted That Katrina Is Not Expected To Weaken Prior To

Landfall...which Could Be Implied By The Official Intensity

Forecast. In Fact...katrina Will Probably Continue To Strengthen

Right Up Until Landfall Occurs In The Florida Panhandle.

Forecaster Stewart

vicocala · August 25, 2005

Bulletin

Tropical Storm Katrina Intermediate Advisory Number 8b

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

3 Pm Edt Thu Aug 25 2005

...katrina Just Below Hurricane Strength As It Moves Slowly

Westward Across The Florida Straits Toward Southeast Florida...

...tropical Storm Force Winds Nearing The Florida Coast...

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For The Southeast Florida

Coast From Vero Beach Southward To Florida City...including Lake

Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions

Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.

Preparations To Protect Life And Property Should Be Rushed To

Completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For Grand Bahama

Island...bimini...and The Berry Islands In The Northwest Bahamas.

The Warning Has Been Discontinued For The Remainder Of The

Northwest Bahamas. The Warning Will Likely Be Discontinued Later

Today Or This Evening.